Here we go! It’s the last day of the regular season, and it all comes down to this final set of 15 games. Every team plays on Sunday, and there’s still a lot to be determined.
We have pathways through the playoffs being altered with each game. The NBA season draws to a close with the excitement of the expanded Play-In Tournament after the debut of the smaller version last year. And that’s breathed life into teams that would normally be tanking for ping-pong balls and leaving the fates of the rest of their games in the hands of guys they want to see develop.
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With each nightly schedule complete, the landscape of the playoff picture is changing. Sometimes drastically. Through the rest of the season, we’re going to update this piece to reflect the changes in seeding, races for the top and races for the Play-In Tournament supremacy. (Keep this link bookmarked or tabbed to refresh or whatever you kids do on your laptops.)
(For remaining games: H = Home game | A = Away game | b2b = Second night of a back-to-back)
Eastern Conference
Race for the 1-seed
Philadelphia 76ers vs. Brooklyn Nets
| Team | Record | Games Back | Games Left | Season Series | Tie-Breaker? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
48-23 | - | 1 | 2-1 | Yes | |
47-24 | 1 | 1 | 1-2 | No |
Sixers remaining games: Magic (H)
Nets remaining games: Cavs (H, b2b)
The Philadelphia 76ers are the 1-seed. and they await the runner-up in the Play-In Tournament.
The Brooklyn Nets took care of business against Chicago on Saturday, putting their 2-seed fate entirely in their own hands. All they have to do is beat Cleveland on Sunday, and it’s theirs. If they lose to Cleveland and Milwaukee wins, Brooklyn falls to the 3-seed.
Who should the Sixers want to play in the first round? It doesn’t matter. They’ll take any of those four teams in the Play-In Tournament in no more than five games.
Who should the Nets want to play in the first round? I can’t imagine they’re worried about any of these four teams. If Boston was healthy, maybe there would be a tiny bit of caution, but even then that’s pushing it.
3) Milwaukee Bucks vs. 6) Miami Heat
| Team | Record | Games Back | Games Left | Season Series | Tie-Breaker? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
46-25 | 2 | 1 | 2-1 | Yes | |
39-32 | 9 | 1 | 1-2 | No |
Bucks remaining games: Bulls (A, b2b)
Heat remaining games: Pistons (A, b2b)
Tiebreaker in this series? Doesn’t matter.
The Milwaukee Bucks did not fear the Miami Heat on Saturday, proving they don’t fear the Miami Heat in the first round of the playoffs. The Bucks took down the Heat, who sat Jimmy Butler, setting up a rematch of last playoffs’ series that sent Milwaukee home. The Bucks are in the 3-seed, unless the Nets lose. Then they can move up to No. 2. The Heat are in the 6-seed, unless the Knicks lose to Boston on Sunday and the Heat take down Detroit.
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Chances this series happens: 🔒🔒🔒🔒 (out of five)
I’m not certain this series will absolutely happen, so it’s four lock emojis out of five, but the Bucks and Heat seem destined to make it happen. The Knicks should beat the Celtics on Sunday. So the Heat beating the Pistons won’t matter. Cleveland isn’t beating Brooklyn, so the Nets shouldn’t fall to the 3-seed. I think we’re getting the rematch of the series that knocked the Bucks out last year and embarrassed them in the process.
How much excitement for this potential series? 🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨
Oh, we should all be here for this remix of the series. The Bucks have so much to prove in the playoffs, and they have so much to prove against Miami. Mike Budenholzer was completely outcoached by Erik Spoelstra last year. Will it happen again?
Who is going to win this series? Give me the Heat in six.
4) New York Knicks vs. 5) Atlanta Hawks
| Team | Record | Games Back | Games Left | Season Series | Tie-Breaker? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
40-31 | 8 | 1 | 3-0 | Yes | |
40-31 | 8 | 1 | 0-3 | No |
Knicks remaining games: Celtics (H, b2b)
Hawks remaining games: Rockets (H)
Tiebreaker in this series? It matters.
With the Heat losing on Saturday, the New York Knicks have moved up to the 4-seed, and the Atlanta Hawks have moved down to the 5-seed. The Knicks have the tiebreaker over the Hawks, so the Knicks would have to lose for them to fall in the standings. They control their own destiny against the Celtics. The Hawks can’t fall farther than No. 5 at this point. They have the tiebreaker over the Heat.
Chances this series happens: 🔒🔒🔒🔒
Who knows if the Celtics will actually bring some noise to the Knicks, but I think this is about as close to a lock as we can possibly get. We just don’t know for certain if the Knicks might fall and the Heat end up rising in the standings. The Hawks can’t fall out of this part of the bracket, even if they lose and the Heat win, so it’s just about whether or not the Knicks can take down the broken Celtics on Sunday. I think they will.
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How much excitement for this potential series? 🚨🚨🚨🚨
Trae Young making his playoff debut at Madison Square Garden can lead to a ton of fun and buzz for this series. But the Knicks alone being back in the playoffs will generate big ratings and interest.
Who is going to win this series? I’ll take the Knicks in six, but I feel like I’m discounting the Hawks a little too much in doing so.
Play-in Tournament race
7) Boston Celtics vs. 8) Charlotte Hornets
| Team | Record | Games Back | Games Left | Season Series | Tie-Breaker? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
36-35 | 12 | 1 | 2-1 | Yes | |
33-38 | 15 | 1 | 1-2 | No |
Celtics remaining games: Knicks (A, b2b)
Hornets remaining games: Wizards (A, b2b)
Tiebreaker in this series? No. Celtics are too far ahead of Charlotte.
The Boston Celtics are locked into the 7-spot in the Play-In Tournament. If the Charlotte Hornets beat Washington on Sunday, they’re locked into the 8-spot. If they lose to Washington, they’ll fall into the 9 vs 10.
Winner gets the 7-seed, and the loser has to beat the winner of the 9 vs. 10 matchup to earn the 8-seed.
Chances this game happens: 🔒
I don’t know what to make of the Hornets-Wizards game. It sounds like Bradley Beal will be available. That makes it really hard on Charlotte to win this game, but we’ve seen the Hornets be resilient all season long.
How much excitement for this potential game? 🚨🚨🚨🚨
Four words: Gordon Hayward revenge game (if he’s back). Some other amount of words I’m not going to count: Watching LaMelo Ball go into Boston and try to take down the Celtics in a Play-In game would be pretty fun. It’s not exactly playing a seven-game series against the 1980s Celtics at the Boston Garden, but we can make do with the hand we’d be dealt here.
Who is going to win this game? I think Boston is, but not having Brown makes this impossible to guess.
9) Washington Wizards vs. 10) Indiana Pacers
| Team | Record | Games Back | Games Left | Season Series | Tie-Breaker? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
33-38 | 15 | 1 | 3-0 | Yes | |
33-38 | 15 | 1 | 0-3 | No |
Wizards remaining games: Hornets (H)
Pacers remaining games: Raptors (A, b2b)
Tiebreaker in this series? It would determine home court in this game.
The Washington Wizards moved up to the 9-slot with Indiana losing to the Lakers. The Indiana Pacers are not quite locked into No. 10. If the Wizards win on Sunday, the Hornets drop to No. 9 and play the Pacers. If the Hornets win, the Wizards drop to No. 9, unless the Pacers beat Toronto, then Washington would be No. 10.
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Chances this game happens: 🔒
No clue what happens here. The Hornets and Wizards are a coin flip. I’m not even certain if you can trust the Pacers to take down what’s left of Toronto, at this point. The Pacers haven’t been reliable all season long, and they need Caris LeVert to be great on Sunday.
How much excitement for this potential game? 🚫🚫🚫🚫🚫
We want to see Russell Westbrook continue to do cool stuff on the court, as we continue in this Russ-aissance. And of course, Beal is always worth the price of admission. I’m just not sure how many people are clamoring for the Indiana Pacers to keep showing up on TV screens.
Who is going to win this game? I’d put my money on the Wizards, but Beal’s hamstring needs to be healthy.
Already eliminated: Chicago Bulls, Toronto Raptors, Orlando Magic, Cleveland Cavaliers, Detroit Pistons
Western Conference
Race for the 1-seed
Utah Jazz vs. Phoenix Suns
| Team | Record | Games Back | Games Left | Season Series | Tie-Breaker? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
51-20 | - | 1 | 0-3 | No | |
50-21 | 1 | 1 | 3-0 | Yes |
Jazz remaining games: Kings (A)
Suns remaining games: Spurs (A, b2b)
The Utah Jazz need to beat Sacramento or see Phoenix lose to San Antonio on Sunday to lock up the 1-seed. The Phoenix Suns just beat the Spurs on the first end of the back-to-back in San Antonio on Saturday. Do it again on Sunday, and they pressure the Jazz to beat whatever is left of the Kings.
Who’s getting the 1-seed? Jazz.
Who should the Jazz want to play in the first round? Golden State or Memphis. Look, you’re playing with fire when it comes to Steph Curry, but a healthy Jazz team should overmatch them.
Who should the Suns want to play in the first round? Not the Los Angeles Lakers. Anybody but them, and the Suns should be able to find four victories.
3) Denver Nuggets vs. 6) Portland Trail Blazers
| Team | Record | Games Back | Games Left | Season Series | Tie-Breaker? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
47-24 | 4 | 1 | 2-0 | Yes | |
41-30 | 10 | 1 | 0-2 | No |
Nuggets remaining games: Blazers (A)
Blazers remaining games: Nuggets (H)
Tiebreaker in this series? Doesn’t matter.
The Denver Nuggets need to beat Portland on Sunday to secure the 3-seed. The Portland Trail Blazers need to beat the Nuggets on Sunday in order to have a chance to move up into the 5-seed. They would also need Dallas to lose its game. If Portland loses to Denver and the Lakers win, then the Blazers fall into the Play-In Tournament.
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Chances this series happens: 🤷♂️🤷♂️🤷♂️🤷♂️
Too many moving parts with Nos. 3-7 to know what to believe. Denver taking care of business negates a lot. But if the Nuggets lose and the Clippers win, then the Nuggets will drop to No. 4 and the Clippers will rise to No. 3. Plus the three-way traffic jam with Dallas, Portland and the Lakers is yet to be resolved until late Sunday. My guess is the Nuggets win and retain the 3-seed, and we see the Lakers move out of the Play-In Tournament.
How much excitement for this potential series? 🚨🚨🚨🚨
The Nuggets and Blazers had a great seven-game series a couple of years ago. While Denver and Portland aren’t typically big market draws for ratings, I think Damian Lillard versus soon-to-be MVP Nikola Jokic will absolutely create proper buzz for a series like this.
Who is going to win this series? This has the potential to be a great series that goes the distance, but I’ll say Nuggets in six.
4) LA Clippers vs. 5) Dallas Mavericks
| Team | Record | Games Back | Games Left | Season Series | Tie-Breaker? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
47-24 | 4 | 1 | 1-2 | No | |
42-29 | 9 | 1 | 2-1 | Yes |
Clippers remaining games: Thunder (A)
Mavs remaining games: Wolves (A)
Tiebreaker in this series? Doesn’t matter.
Is it possible the Clippers decided they wanted to avoid a healthy Lakers team for as long as possible? How else can you explain them dropping the game to Houston on Friday night and dropping them into the 4-seed? Maybe they feel better about facing the Dallas Mavericks, who currently occupy the 5-seed? Maybe the Clippers thought they could sit Kawhi Leonard and Paul George and still win Friday? Regardless, they fall to the 4-seed heading into their last game.
Chances this series happens: 🔒🔒🔒
Some people turned up an eyebrow at the Clippers losing to Houston on Friday, wondering if they’re trying to avoid a potential showdown with the Lakers as much as possible. Sometimes we can overthink these things, but also, maybe the Clippers just hope life will find a way when it comes to giving them a better path to a potential NBA Finals appearance. Dallas is an easier first-round matchup than Portland in theory. Utah would be an easier second-round matchup than if the Lakers break through as the 7-seed. As for Dallas, the Mavs will be fine right here.
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How much excitement for this potential series? 🚨🚨🚨
People love Luka Doncic, and people love to see what the Clippers might do — good or bad — when it comes to the postseason. They had a spirited series in the bubble last year, and we should see them generate some big moments to pay attention to.
Who is going to win this series? I’d expect something like we saw with Clippers-Mavs last year. Some fun moments by Dallas, but Clippers win in six.
Play-In Tournament race
7) Los Angeles Lakers vs. 8) Golden State Warriors
| Team | Record | Games Back | Games Left | Season Series | Tie-Breaker? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
41-30 | 10 | 1 | 2-1 | Yes | |
38-33 | 13 | 1 | 1-2 | No |
Lakers remaining games: Pelicans (A, b2b)
Warriors remaining games: Grizzlies (H)
Tiebreaker in this series? It doesn’t matter.
The Los Angeles Lakers took down Indiana on Saturday, thanks to the return of LeBron James and Anthony Davis. I can’t imagine they’ll throw them both into a back-to-back considering the recent injury history, but the Lakers are a win against the Pelicans and a Portland loss to Denver away from avoiding the Play-In.
The Golden State Warriors must beat the Memphis Grizzlies on Sunday to be in the 8-spot for the Play-In Tournament.
Chances this game happens: 🤷♂️🤷♂️🤷♂️🤷♂️
I was wrong about not seeing LeBron this weekend, but now I really don’t think we’ll see him in the back-to-back on Sunday. They don’t need him, and they probably don’t need AD either to take down New Orleans, who isn’t playing their stars and don’t have anything to play for anyway. The Warriors and Grizzlies on Sunday is a coin flip, still.
How much excitement for this potential game? 🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨
LeBron James versus Steph Curry. We’ve seen this before. We’ve loved this before. We’ll love it again. And this time it’s a win-and-you’re-in scenario for the playoffs. Not sure anybody saw this coming back in the 2015-2018 era, mostly because there was no Play-In Tournament back then.
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Who is going to win this game? If the Lakers are healthy, I’ll still take them and their rust to win this game.
9) Memphis Grizzlies vs. 10) San Antonio Spurs
| Team | Record | Games Back | Games Left | Season Series | Tie-Breaker? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38-33 | 13 | 1 | 2-1 | Yes | |
33-38 | 18 | 1 | 1-2 | No |
Grizzlies remaining games: Warriors (A)
Spurs remaining games: Suns (H, b2b)
Tiebreaker in this series? No. Memphis has home court.
The Memphis Grizzlies take on the Golden State Warriors on Sunday. The winner gets a chance to beat the Lakers to be the 7-seed. The loser then takes the winner of this 9 vs 10 matchup to win the 8-seed. The San Antonio Spurs are locked into the 10-slot now.
Chances this game happens: 🤷♂️🤷♂️🤷♂️
It’s still possible the Grizzlies overtake the Warriors for the 8-seed with that final game of the season. The Spurs will be waiting for either the Grizzlies or the Warriors in hopes of extending their season in the 9 vs 10 matchup.
How much excitement for this potential game? 🚨
As fun as Ja Morant is, I’m not sure how you get the casual fan excited for Memphis versus San Antonio. Even if it’s an elimination game.
Who is going to win this game? Memphis wins this game, but I haven’t had a good handle on the Spurs in two years.
Already eliminated: Sacramento Kings, New Orleans Pelicans, Oklahoma City Thunder, Minnesota Timberwolves, Houston Rockets
Related Reading
Sam Amick: One-on-one with Draymond Green
Most Improved Player: Who should win the award this season?
Fred Katz: ‘Seek-and-destroy’ mentality fuels Russell Westbrook’s tenacity
(Photo: Trevor Ruszkowski / USA Today)
