Like comedian Nathan Fielder, I graduated from one of Canada’s top business schools with good grades. Instead of helping small business owners, my job right now is to help Raptors fans survive an end-of-season scenario they haven’t experienced since 2012-13. Some of you may not remember that or may not have been fans. Others probably loathe any reference to the pre-Kings trade era. In either case, I’m feeling the need to tuck you all in after each game, similar to this outlandish episode of Fielder’s “Nathan For You.”
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What that means right now is reminding you what the Raptors’ lottery situation is after a tough loss.
Depending on your perspective, the last week has either been a disaster or near-perfection. Each of the team’s last six games has been fun and competitive, with notable growth being shown by some key players who will likely be with the team beyond this season. If you were hoping the Raptors can push to a play-in spot, there was optimism that if they’re ever healthy, they’re still a good team and could make some noise. The 1-5 record, though, probably hurt, as did the continued failings in the clutch. If you’re hoping for the best pick possible, a stretch of really good developmental games that result in losses is the ideal scenario.
And so, after a tough overtime defeat against Washington more or less sank the team’s play-in chances, it was time to tuck you all in on Twitter.
(whispering as you fall asleep still upset about the game) Raptors in sole possession of #7 lottery odds right now
— Blake Murphy (@BlakeMurphyODC) May 7, 2021
Today, we’re going to look at this a little more closely. We’re down to just five games on the schedule, so what follows is a look at the different end-of-season scenarios the Raptors are facing for the play-in tournament and the draft lottery.
An unlikely play-in push
The Raptors are not yet mathematically eliminated. They are four games behind the Wizards for the 10th seed and four-and-a-half behind the drama-heavy Pacers. The Bulls also complicate things, as they sit a half-game up on the Raptors too. Even Charlotte, at 5.5 games up, isn’t entirely safe yet.
| Seed | Team | Record | GB 6th | GB 10th | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
4 | 37-29 | +2 | +6.5 | @ Phx, @ LAC, @ LAL, SA, Cha, Bos | |
5 | 37-31 | +1 | +5.5 | Was, Was, Orl, Hou | |
6 | 35-31 | 0 | +4.5 | @ Chi, Mia, Mia, @ Cle, @ Min, @ NY | |
7 | 35-31 | 0 | +4.5 | Min, @ Bos, @ Bos, Phi, @ Mil, @ Det | |
8 | 32-34 | 3 | +1.5 | Orl, NO, Den, LAC, @ NY, @ Was | |
9 | 31-35 | 4 | +1 | Was, @ Cle, Phi, Mil, LAL, @ Tor | |
10 | 31-36 | 4.5 | 0 | @ Ind, @ Atl, @ Atl, Cle, Cha | |
11 | 27-39 | Elim | 3.5 | Bos, @ Det, Brk, Tor, @ Brk, Mil | |
12 | 27-40 | Elim | 4 | Mem, LAC, @ Chi, @ Dal, Ind |
You’ll notice the teams still jockeying for position in the East have a lot of games remaining against one another. There could be a lot of movement in that Nos. 4-7 range, especially. It’s also relevant that Brooklyn and Milwaukee are still fighting for the No. 2 seed, as that locks in a first-round matchup against a team that’s had to play an extra play-in game. (You can quibble with whether those teams would like to face an Atlanta or New York instead of even a play-in-tired Boston or Miami; they likely won’t control that, so the No. 2 seed, and the home-court advantage in the second round that comes with it, figures to be a moderate priority.)
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Down in the Raptors’ range, they lost their best opportunity to make a jump Thursday. Still, they have games left against Chicago and Indiana to try to nudge upward. They also play the Clippers (possibly pushing for the No. 2 seed to avoid the Lakers in the first round), the Grizzlies (fighting to get the No. 8 seed instead of Nos. 9-10 so they only have to win one play-in game) and the Mavericks (still trying to avoid the play-in). It’s not exactly an easy slate of games if everyone is trying to win.
Math is obviously not on Toronto’s side. Even with an easy schedule, making up four games and jumping an extra team with only five games to play is very daunting. How daunting? Well, across five sites that project such things, the Raptors’ playoff odds are down to below 1.0, 0.4, 0.5, 0.9 and 1.2 percent. Basically, there’s a 1-in-83 to 1-in-250 chance of getting in.
If the Raptors were to make the unlikely push, everything would come down to the season finale against Indiana. A game in the standings and the tiebreaker in the season series would be on the line there, effectively making it a two-game value. To even make that game matter, though, the Raptors would have to win out while Indiana goes 1-4, or go 3-1 while Indiana loses out until then. And that’s before factoring in that Chicago could win out and render that moot.
So, yeah. It’s not happening.
Reverse standings push, lottery odds
I’m not sure how much everyone has been dialed into the lottery situation, so I want to refresh a few things quickly.
Timeline: The draft lottery is held June 22. The draft is July 29.
The lottery explained: There are 1,001 possible combinations of 14 numbered ping-pong balls in a lottery machine, and each team is assigned a certain number of those combinations based on where each team finished in the standings. The lottery machine determines the top four picks — selected out of the 14 non-playoff teams that own lottery combinations — and the rest of the draft order plays out based on end-of-regular season standings.
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Ties: If two teams have identical records, they split the lottery balls and a random drawing is held for the extra odd-numbered ball.
Odds: The odds of finishing at each spot in the draft based on where you finish in the standings is as follows.
That’s a heavy table. We can narrow things further to look at just the Raptors’ range of potential outcomes. As explained a few weeks back, they’ve been operating in a sort-of purgatory where there wasn’t an obvious path to getting back to the playoffs or to the bottom of the lottery table.
| Seed | Team | Record | GB Top-4 Odds | GB 24th | #1 Pick | Top-4 Pick | Lowest Pick | Avg Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
30 | 16-50 | +4.5 | Elim | 14.00% | 52.10% | 5 | 3.7 | |
29 | 20-47 | +1 | Elim | 14.00% | 52.10% | 6 | 3.9 | |
28 | 20-46 | +0.5 | Elim | 14.00% | 52.10% | 7 | 4.1 | |
27 | 21-46 | 0 | Elim | 12.50% | 48.10% | 8 | 4.4 | |
26 | 21-45 | 0.5 | +5.5 | 10.50% | 42.10% | 9 | 5 | |
25 | 21-45 | 0.5 | +5.5 | 9.00% | 37.20% | 10 | 5.5 | |
24 | 27-40 | Elim | 0 | 7.50% | 31.90% | 11* | 6.2 | |
23 | 27-39 | Elim | 0.5 | 6.00% | 26.20% | 12* | 7 | |
22 | 29-37 | Elim | 2.5 | 4.50% | 20.20% | 13* | 8 | |
21 | 30-36 | Elim | 3.5 | 3.00% | 13.90% | 14* | 9.2 | |
20^ | 31-36 | Elim | 4 | 2.00% | 9.40% | 14* | 10.3 | |
19^ | 31-35 | Elim | 4.5 | 1.50% | 7.20% | 14 | 11.4 | |
18^ | 31-34 | Elim | 5 | 1.00% | 4.70% | 14 | 12.5 | |
17^ | 32-33 | Elim | Elim | 0.50% | 2.40% | 14 | 13.7 |
*less than 0.1 percent chance of finishing that low; ^Teams that lose the play-in tournament slot into the lottery based on regular-season standings (no double-dipping or improving odds via play-in); end-of-season ties split the lottery odds for those two positions.
Once again, it doesn’t look like there’s a lot the Raptors can do to improve their position. They could mathematically pull into a tie with Orlando and/or Cleveland, but that would require those teams winning out and the Raptors losing out. Orlando and Cleveland have a combined one game remaining against teams who aren’t playing for something, and they’ll be motivated to lose to try to fight their way into the top-four range.
So again, yeah, it’s not happening.
If you’re a lottery-focus Raptors fan, the teams to watch are Chicago and Sacramento. The best-case lottery scenario for the Raptors right now is that they finish in sole possession of 24th in the league standings. A loss to Chicago this week might be necessary to secure that. The shift in odds feels small, but the difference between 26.2 percent and 31.9 percent when it comes to a top-four pick is quite meaningful. Any extra lottery combinations when it comes to Cade Cunningham are meaningful too.
Sacramento is interesting, as the Kings have won four in a row and seven of 10. They seem to be enjoying playing spoiler and picking up momentum for next season. They also have two games left against the Thunder, who are riding this tank-like Rusev and WrestleMania. It might be a Toronto-Chicago battle for seventh and eighth.
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Say, do you remember another time the Raptors’ final few games mattered for the seventh- and eighth-best lottery odds? More on that Tuesday.
Trent Jr.’s qualifying offer explained
I didn’t think this warranted its own explainer piece, but I wanted to address it somewhere because it seems there was some confusion Thursday night about what, exactly, Gary Trent Jr. starting meant. Trent has now reached “starter criteria” for his upcoming restricted free agency. For the most part, this is a small accounting note.
The Raptors have to give Trent a qualifying offer to retain matching rights in restricted free agency. The qualifying offer is just a one-year deal that in most cases is just paperwork. Technically, a player could sign the qualifying offer, accepting the lower salary for the year ahead. They would do that so that they can become an unrestricted free agent the following year. It’s a bit of leverage for an RFA — give me the deal I want, or I’ll sign the qualifying offer and you’ll lose me next summer. It’s rare for a player to choose that route, and since Trent is a part of the Raptors’ plans and should have long-term suitors this summer, it’s unlikely his camp plays that card.
What does matter, though, is that because Trent’s qualifying offer is higher, his cap hold is higher.
We’ll get into cap holds more in our offseason primers, but in short, each free agent counts on your cap sheet until you either re-sign or renounce them. This is to keep teams from signing a bunch of guys, then doubling back to re-sign their own players using their Bird rights. Kyle Lowry, for example, is going to have a massive cap hold this summer; the Raptors will either need to sign (or sign-and-trade) him very quickly or renounce his rights to actually use the cap space they’ve built up. It’s the difference between operating as an above-cap or below-cap team for the season ahead. More on that in a couple of weeks.
Trent will now be on the books with a cap hold of $4.74 million instead of $2.12 million. That means the Raptors have $2.62 million less in cap space to play with. That’s not insignificant if the Raptors operate as a below-cap team. It shouldn’t have much impact on the actual negotiations with Trent, though. It’s just a little less flexibility to shop on the market before they get the Trent deal done.
There’s one other small thing to consider here: The Raptors don’t have to operate like this if Trent and his camp agree to play ball on a bit of a cap loophole.
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Technically, if the Raptors are operating as a below-cap team and Trent is in agreement, they could withdraw his qualifying offer by a certain still-to-be-determined deadline (usually one week after the free-agent moratorium ends). That would make Trent an unrestricted free agent, but the Raptors would still retain his Bird rights, thereby allowing them to exceed the cap to re-sign him. Because Trent would now be a UFA, his cap hold is calculated differently. Instead of being $4.74 million because he hit RFA starter criteria, his cap hold would be whatever the two-year veteran minimum is (currently estimated to be about $1.6-1.7 million). That’s because Trent is coming off a minimum contract, and minimum-salaried UFAs have minimum cap holds.
So, the Raptors could save about $3 million in cap space by making Trent unrestricted instead of restricted. There’s some risk here, of course. You’d have to be really sure Trent’s camp is on board because a UFA could technically go sign anywhere and the Raptors would no longer have the right to match an offer sheet. Trent shares an agency with OG Anunoby, and you’d have to play that relationship card carefully. This doesn’t work without Trent’s camp agreeing to it, lest you end up in a DeAndre Jordan emoji war situation.
If the sides came to terms on a new deal for Trent very early in free agency, this seems like a legitimate possibility. Verbally agree to the terms, withdraw the qualifying offer, get $3 million in extra cap space, do your free-agent shopping, circle back and re-sign Trent using Bird rights to the previously agreed upon deal.
Straightforward.
(Photo: Kim Klement / USA Today)