On the day the Edmonton Oilers acquired defenceman Adam Larsson, fans were wildly unhappy. Known forever as “the trade is one for one,” fans who had been heading to the rink to watch miserable hockey from the home team in 2009-10 (and after) were outraged that Taylor Hall was leaving the organization. Those fans had contributed to Hall’s selection by showing up for the bad times, and he represented a sea change for the franchise.
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The fracture from Hall exiting has never healed, but something impressive has happened since with Larsson and Oilers fans.
Through five seasons of rugged play and quality shutdown defending, Larsson has managed to emerge from the opening stanza of his Oilers career as a popular player in the city. His hard-hitting style has been in vogue for Edmonton fans going back to the Oil Kings of Pat Quinn and even farther back to the year Eddie Shore played in the city.
No magic, no wizardry, just hard work and smash-mouth hockey for half a decade and Oilers faithful are fans of No. 6 in the home colours.
So when Elliotte Friedman reported progress in contract talks and wrote “the Oilers made legit progress with Adam Larsson,” fan reaction was positive.
Larsson’s return for the next four seasons (the rumoured length of the new deal) begins to answer some of the questions of summer and confirms the master plan for Holland and coach Dave Tippett: Let the horses run offensively, and play strong defence while making life miserable for opponents. Larsson is the linchpin for that physical shutdown approach.
Tippett’s deployment of Larsson
The best way to find the value of a defenceman to his team is by checking out the time-on-ice numbers. Usage is a great reflection of value and, in Larsson’s case, he’s a vital part of five-on-five and penalty killing in Tippett’s rotation (numbers via Natural Stat Trick).
Category | Total | Rank |
|---|---|---|
5-on-5 ATOI | 16:46 | 3 |
5-on-5 shots against | 25.9 | 3 |
5-on-5 goals against | 2.02 | 3 |
PK ATOI | 2:18 | 2 |
PK goals against | 5.58 | 3 |
Larsson is clearly important to the team at five-on-five and on the penalty kill. Even more compelling is his five-on-five time versus elites, as measured by Puck IQ:
Player | TOI v elites | Per game | DFF % v elites |
|---|---|---|---|
428 | 7:47 | 48.5 | |
314 | 5:42 | 43.2 | |
305 | 5:32 | 53.7 | |
214 | 5:06 | 59.0 |
These are the top four defencemen on the team by time on ice versus elites, and it tells a revealing story. Both Ethan Bear and Larsson get better possession results (DFF is smart Corsi) than Darnell Nurse and Tyson Barrie. Comparing Bear and Larsson to Barrie is especially revealing, as Edmonton’s shot share is far superior when the right-handed side of the defence is manned by someone other than Barrie against elites at five-on-five.
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I also looked at Larsson’s goals against per 60 minutes at five-on-five and found his success rate increasing as the season wore along. The veteran is approaching free agency playing some of the best hockey of his career, no doubt a contributing factor in Edmonton’s desire to lock him up long term.
What a Larsson contract means to the rest of the roster
The news of Edmonton’s negotiations with Larsson going well indicates the way forward this summer and beyond. Larsson is the team’s only pure shutdown defenceman, and bringing him back will impact Evan Bouchard, Barrie and possibly Bear.
Bouchard should have an open look in the fall at the No. 3 spot on the right side. Although power-play minutes are not guaranteed (Oscar Klefbom may grab the job back if healthy and not selected in expansion), the young defender will be 22 in October and his time is now.
Bear started the season slowly but has once again provided terrific results against the NHL’s best players. It’s difficult to imagine the organization moving on from such a valuable young player, especially with another year to go on a value deal that pays $2 million per season.
That leaves Barrie, who as of this moment leads the league’s defencemen in points. His signing a team-friendly one-year deal with Edmonton has proven to be an astute career move, as his value in free agency will result in a handsome raise.
If Larsson is going to return, that tells me Barrie is unlikely to, although Holland isn’t going to play his cards until the offseason and things can change before summer.
What would it look like?
If I’m right, and that remains to be seen, a signed Larsson would give Edmonton a great deal of certainty on defence if Klefbom returns healthy and can slide into his previous role:
Player | Cap | Role |
|---|---|---|
$5,600,000 | Top pair | |
$2,000,000 | Top pair | |
$4,167,000 | Second pair | |
unknown | Second pair | |
$850,000 | Third pair | |
$863,333 | Third pair | |
$1,250,000 | No. 7 D |
That would bring Edmonton’s defence in at around $19 million for 2021-22, depending on Larsson’s cap hit. My assumption is that a contract negotiation that is going well probably doesn’t involve a cut in cap dollars annually, but it’s also true the flat cap is likely to continue for some time, possibly most of the rumoured four-year contract.
Finding comparable players for Larsson isn’t easy because of his lack of offence (not many pure shutdown defencemen exist in today’s NHL). Here are the comparable players who fit Larsson’s profile and were signed after the flat cap came into existence.
Player | five on five TOI | Age at contract | Term | AAV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
17:06 | 29 | 4 years | $5 million | |
16:46 | 28 | |||
15:11 | 26 | 4 years | $3.5 million | |
15:07 | 29 | 4 years | $4.5 million |
A reasonable estimate has Larsson coming in around $4 million, perhaps as high as $4.25 million annually. That means $19 million for the seven defencemen listed above, depending on Bouchard’s cap bonus situation by year’s end. (Cap numbers courtesy PuckPedia.)
What does it all mean?
The Larsson contract situation tells us Bouchard is extremely likely to be on next year’s team. It also makes sense that Bear is the third right-handed defenceman because of his effective play, value contract and promising future.
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The bet here is that Larsson’s contract negotiations telegraph Barrie’s exit.
Holland will have a tough defenceman with shutdown and penalty-killing ability in Larsson, along with two outstanding puck passers on the right side, all coming in at (probably) less than $7 million next season.
That’s a fantastic depth chart for that kind of investment.
(Top photo of Taylor Hall and Adam Larsson: Bruce Bennett / Getty Images)
