We’ve still got some time until the puck drops for Game 1 of Islanders-Penguins on Sunday, so we polled four NHL observers/insiders for their views on the series.
For this analysis, we have a former Eastern Conference NHLer, a current East Division player, a Western Conference scout who works in the East and a public data analyst. We granted anonymity to everyone to maintain some consistency and allow them to speak freely.
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Here we go:
Who has the edge?
Current player: These are two teams that could really go on long runs, so for me, it’s a toss-up. With the Islanders, when they’re at their best they’re the toughest matchup team in the division — even without (Anders) Lee they have those four lines and you just can’t focus on one or two, because they can all beat you. With Pitt, they were the division champs, so they were obviously doing things right all year, even with the injuries they had. Their D is sneaky deep, and adding (Jeff) Carter was a big move that really makes their middle six a lot more dangerous.
Scout: I just like the way the Islanders are built. I saw them a lot through their hot streak in the middle of the year and even though they cooled off, you always have the feeling they’re going to be a tough out. They’re built for a seven-game series. Pitt had the slow start, there was some upheaval with Jimmy (Rutherford) leaving, but you still have Sid (Crosby), and that can be a huge advantage. They also have the only true No. 1 defenseman on either side in (Kris) Letang, but the Isles on D, 1-6, don’t take a backseat to anyone.
Data analyst: The Penguins were a top-three rush team all season — it was them, Vegas and the Rangers pretty much start to finish. The Islanders were up there again in the defensive categories, chances against, high-danger chances against. In the playoffs, give me a top-five defensive team over a top-five offensive team any day.
Former player: The key to me might be in net. (Semyon) Varlamov is going to get some Vezina votes and rightly so; he works in an environment that’s not as tough as some other goalies but he makes it look easy. That’s hard to do for some goalies. With (Tristan) Jarry, he started off terrible, was better and then kind of finished the way he started. To me it’s a situation like they had with (Matt) Murray two years ago: When he lost that safety net with (Marc-Andre) Fleury leaving, he wasn’t as good. Some goalies need that security blanket. Jarry just doesn’t look as confident.
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Who is your X-factor for the series?
Current player: For Pitt, I think it’s actually (Evgeni) Malkin. They were so good without him this season it really made a lot of their no-name guys a bigger part of their success, which helps the whole team. Him coming back and if he’s healthy, he still has that game-changing ability and can still cause matchup problems for the Isles D.
With the Islanders, I really like (Anthony) Beauvillier’s game. He came on strong in the bubble last year, and when I watched their games in the playoffs, I always noticed him. He just buzzes around. Maybe didn’t have the best season this year, but he came on at the end. If he’s in gear again for the playoffs, I don’t think Pitt’s D can handle his line.
Scout: Beauvillier and (Oliver) Wahlstrom for the Isles. If those guys are going, that’s three lines with a little bit of speed, skill and scoring ability, plus the (Casey) Cizikas line is going to do what it always does. With Pitt, it’s definitely (Bryan) Rust. If they win this series, he’s going to be a big reason. He gives them a lot of what (Patric) Hornqvist did but with better skating. Rust has really matured into an all-around player.
Who’s going to win?
Current player: I honestly don’t know. … This is anonymous, right? I can really see it going either way and can see the winner going on to the semis or the Cup final. They’re that good. The winner of that Caps-Bruins series is going to be beat up a little and maybe ripe for the taking. This one will be heavy too, but not in the same way. I’m really torn. Maybe I give the Islanders a small edge because they just don’t break down as much and they can wear you down over seven games. It’s going long, I definitely think that.
Scout: I might have to give the Islanders the edge. I did see more of them when they were at their best, and losing Lee definitely hurts, but I think you’re going to see (Kyle) Palmieri really step forward now. He just fits what they do and he’s a smart enough player to know that on that team the best thing you can do is fit your role, not try to dominate. The Penguins are so dangerous, but the Isles have the edge in net, and I could see a long, low-scoring series that the Isles pull out.
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Former player: Lou (Lamoriello) doesn’t pull people in at the deadline unless he knows his team can go deep. Palmieri and (Travis) Zajac are good pieces for them, makes them deeper and tougher. I don’t think Pitt can match that. Plus the big edge in goal — I think Jarry won’t be able to make the big save when Pitt needs it.
Data analyst: People forget because it was such a long layoff that Tampa was the No. 1 team last season in high-danger chances against. They have all that firepower but they defend hard. And the final four teams were all top-five in that category. It’s one of the more consistent measures of playoff success the last few years. You have that structure and it’s not any sort of adjustment to carry it into the playoffs, where everyone needs to tighten up.
The Islanders at one point this season led the league in two-on-ones, actually — and it was all from stopping other teams on the rush and countering. They’re going to be able to stop the Penguins rush, frustrate the shit out of them and then Pitt will be running in circles.
(Photo: Jeanine Leech / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
