It’s been far too long since the NHL’s two most storied franchises have met in the postseason. Finally, as a result of an all-Canada division, Canada’s two biggest cities with the two most passionate hockey fan bases in the world will face off. Toronto vs. Montreal. Feel the excitement.
It’s been 42 years so beggars can’t be choosers and it’s nice that this series is finally happening, but it is a shame that this series isn’t … closer. There was a massive divide in the standings between Toronto and Montreal this season and the season series wasn’t much different. Combine that with each team’s recent trajectory and all signs point to a lopsided series in Toronto’s favour.
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Series odds
Matchup adjustment takes into account each player’s Game Score against this specific opponent as well as his Game Score over the last six weeks.
This is the second most uneven series of the first round, behind only the Colorado-St. Louis series. A probability that high feels uncomfortable enough, but this feels much worse. It’s over 80 percent and it’s the Leafs. That math simply does not compute for a team that is cursed.
But it’s hard to spin it any other way given the information at hand. Based on the talent on each roster, this series is closer to 75/25 which is already pretty high. The Leafs are obviously more talented, possess more depth, and yes, have better goaltending too (especially with the news that Carey Price will likely be ready for the start of the series, news that downgraded Montreal’s chances). The roster itself is enough to feel comfortable with Toronto winning this one.
But it’s the extra layers of added context that give the team a further eight percentage point boost. The matchup adjustment here is the second largest of the opening round and it stems from Toronto being excellent down the stretch, Montreal struggling in comparison, and the head-to-head dominance the Leafs had during the season series. Toronto won seven of 10 and though the model expects something a little less than that going forward (67 percent at home, 60 percent on the road), it shows how likely a series win is when a team is expected to win six-or-seven times out of 10.
It’s no guarantee, but the Leafs are heavy favourites for a reason.
Season stats
You’ve seen enough of these season stats charts to know by now the Leafs look very strong relative to the field. The league’s best teams — Colorado, Tampa Bay — have very few flaws if any. It’s a lot of different blue shades, some deeper than others, and maybe one or two light pink splotches. No red. Toronto has an elite offence at five-on-five buoyed by both quality and quantity. The Leafs have a stingy defence and strong goaltending. Their chance creation and suppression on special teams is good, and though they’ve slumped for a long while, their power play is still 10th in goal rate. Of the 15 categories here, Toronto is top 10 in 14 of them. Only Colorado can say the same thing and it explains why the Leafs are second to only the Avalanche in expected and actual goals percentage at five-on-five.
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Montreal’s full-season stats are far less rosy. The Canadiens sure started strong, looking like a five-on-five juggernaut, but they didn’t finish there. The team ended the year 10th in expected goals percentage and only average in terms of actual goals, with a clear focus on quantity over quality. That the team has a 54 percent Corsi that goes down with expected goals and down further with actual goals is a troubling sign. The Leafs are the exact opposite and that comes down to talent. Montreal was unsurprisingly not a strong finishing team this season and didn’t have the strongest goaltending either.
Both those things only became worse as the season came to a close where Montreal was 29th in shooting percentage and 31st in save percentage at five-on-five. There’s a lot of bad luck there that the Canadiens didn’t deserve, but even their expected goals numbers fell off down the stretch too. Over the final six weeks, Montreal earned just a 49 percent expected goals rate, an unusually low mark for a team known for its puck possession prowess. Part of that was obviously due to injuries, but it was still a worrying trend at the worst possible time. The Leafs only got better as the season went on with a 57 percent expected goals rate and 62 percent actual goals rate that was second to only Colorado on both accounts.
Montreal should be more formidable at five-on-five when fully healthy, but the team is still several steps below Toronto and that showed up when the two teams went head-to-head. Toronto earned 54 percent of the expected goals and 59 percent of the actual goals, mirroring the team’s full-season totals.
The Leafs also won the special teams battle, an area that is of slight concern going into the playoffs. Toronto’s power play has been down bad for a lengthy stretch of time now and is 27th in the league over the last six weeks. The chances are there, but the team seems to have the yips when it comes to converting. Montreal’s penalty kill is relatively weak, so a series could be just what the doctor ordered for the team’s power play to finally wake up. When it’s on it’s scary good and it’s a testament to how strong the team is elsewhere that Toronto is this good despite not having a functioning power play for over two months now.
Given the talent at its disposal, Toronto should be a lot better there. Depth wise, there isn’t much separating these two clubs, but the top end is definitely stacked in Toronto’s favour. By a considerable margin.
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Roster breakdown
Matchup adjustment takes into account each player’s Game Score against this specific opponent as well as his Game Score over the last six weeks. The numbers may be slightly skewed as a result of ice-time allocation.
I did the math with Colorado and St. Louis and though it’s not as stark here, it’s pretty close. Montreal’s 18 skaters are worth 16.8 combined wins. Toronto almost gets there with Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, John Tavares, Morgan Rielly and Jake Muzzin alone — a quintet worth 16.6 wins combined. The rest, which is still a lot of talent, is the cherry on top.
High-end talent is what Montreal has been missing for a long time and Toronto has loads of it. It’s been the exact difference in the season series to date as Toronto has been carried by the top of its lineup. Matthews has seven goals and 14 points in 10 games, Marner has 11 in 10 games, and even Zach Hyman had seven points in six games. Tavares went point-per-game, William Nylander had seven points in eight games. Even the two top defencemen cooked as Muzzin and Rielly had eight and seven points over the 10 games. Every single player won the five-on-five scoring chance battle too.
It’s simply far too much firepower that Montreal not only had no answer for, but no response back either. Jeff Petry had 10 points in 10 games (all assists, seven secondary), but the forward scoring was led by Nick Suzuki (eight points in 10 games), Tyler Toffoli (seven points in 10 games) and then three players with five points. Jonathan Drouin, who did that in just six games, won’t be suiting up either.
It’s an uphill battle that starts with stopping Matthews, the second-best player in the league this past season who has had a knack for torching Montreal specifically. Good luck with that. Matthews was a goal-scoring machine this year, putting up 41 in 52 games, a full-season pace of 65 goals. He scored 2.19 goals-per-60, the highest ever in the analytics era which was aided by his elite finishing ability, but also his penchant for creating quality looks. His 1.47 individual expected goals-per-60 ranked second in the league this season and 28th since 2007-08. That’s a rare and potent combination.
What makes Matthews so valuable is not just that he scores goals — he can play at both ends of the ice. Matthews led the Leafs with a 60.7 percent expected goals rate for the season and also had a 65 percent actual goals rate to go with that. His two most frequent linemates, Marner and Hyman, weren’t far behind and together the trio were one of the league’s best lines this season. The line had a 65 percent expected goals rate together in 291 minutes, comparable to other super-lines in Colorado and Boston.
It helps to have another superstar on the line and Marner certainly elevated his game to another level this season playing full-time with Matthews. Marner finished fourth in league scoring with 67 points in 55 games, a 100-point pace that was the product of his elite play-making ability. Marner’s 34 primary assists this year were second to only Connor McDavid and by GSVA he’s now projected to be a borderline top 10 player in hockey.
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That leaves Tavares as the third fiddle now, but he’s still a massive luxury for Toronto to have. Only Edmonton has a better second-line center among playoff teams and that should give opposing teams matchup nightmares. Matthews is hard enough, but when he’s off the ice the next group has to deal with Tavares too. That was the vision when the team signed him and this season was the best embodiment of it. Tavares started the year slowly from a production standpoint, but he really picked it up to close the season with 50 points in 55 games. His play-driving ability was a steady force all season though and for the year he had a 56 percent expected goals rate. It pays to have two top lines controlling play to that degree and it’s something that will be tough for the Canadiens to stop.
It helps that Tavares gets to play with Nylander, whose impacts are sometimes forgotten on this team. Nylander remains the team’s most gifted player with the puck, leading the team in zone entry and exit rate, while also being the team’s most effective paster, leading in shot assists and high danger shot assists. His expected goals percentage was 57 percent for the year. The team is really hoping Nick Foligno can do to that line what Hyman does for the top line. Through seven games, he has a 54 percent expected goals percentage.
Montreal’s top six just doesn’t stack up, but there’s some undervalued pieces to it despite the lower projected values.
For starters, it should be mentioned that while Matthews was tops in goals-per-60, Tyler Toffoli was second at 1.85. I’m not sure anyone expected that when he signed, but he’s been a revelation for Montreal this season scoring 28 goals in 52 games, three shy of a career-high in 30 fewer games. It was a 44-goal pace over a full season. Toffoli created more chances for himself than ever before, but his sky-high shooting percentage means the model is skeptical he can be a full-time 40-goal scorer, pegging him closer to 32 goals as a true talent level. If he truly is a 40-goal scorer that’s an extra 0.4 wins in his favour which nudges Montreal a little closer to Toronto. But obviously not far enough.
The bigger piece to Montreal solving Toronto is its top line which remains one of the league’s best at five-on-five. While much has been made regarding Toronto’s dominance over Montreal, it’s worth noting that Brendan Gallagher, Montreal’s best player, was absent for six of those contests. When he did play, he had a 58 percent expected goals rate and all signs point to him being back in the lineup. The top line, with Gallagher on it, is a buzzsaw, earning a 69 percent expected goals percentage in 250 minutes together, outscoring opponents 18-to-3. At five-on-five they are a real problem and have the capability to shut down one of Toronto’s top two lines. When Gallagher was in the lineup the top line did a damn good job against Matthews and that’s potentially a troubling thought for Leafs fans.
Montreal will need to find an answer for Toronto’s other top line though and that’s where things get a bit tricky. Can Suzuki rise to the occasion there? He’s had flashes all season, scored at a 60-point pace and earned a 55 percent expected goals percentage, blossoming into a real top six center. But that may not be good enough in this series where he’ll have to face off against one of Matthews or Tavares. Toffoli should help, but it doesn’t seem like the team has another bonafide top six quality winger to assist the duo. Josh Anderson started strong, but he’s one of the team’s worst play-drivers.
There are big differences in the top-end talent, but at forward the differences end there with both teams having similar levels of bottom-six depth. My model isn’t very fond of Riley Nash as Toronto’s third-line center, especially at the expense of Alex Galchenyuk who has played well with Toronto, but it could work as a strong checking line if the team wants to alleviate some of the defensive load off the top two lines. The grizzled veteran line is almost enough to make the Leafs likeable outside of Toronto.
It is worth noting that Jason Spezza had a quietly strong offensive season that seems to have flown way under the radar this year amidst all the stars in Toronto. Spezza had 30 points in 53 games, a 46-point pace despite playing only 11 minutes per night. That would’ve tied Tomas Tatar for fourth on Montreal this season and on a per minute basis was good for 26th in the league, narrowly edging out Kirill Kaprizov and William Nylander. Not bad for a fourth-line center.
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Eric Staal has been on the opposite trajectory this season and hasn’t shaken off the Buffalo stink since coming to Montreal. Three points in 21 games, a team-worst 39 percent expected goals rate and he’s been outscored 11-2 at five-on-five. He started the season projected to be a capable second-line center, but an awful season where he was worth minus-0.9 wins (the 12th least valuable in the league) has catapulted his value all the way down to nothing. Montreal might be better off with him in the press box. That spot instead goes to Jesperi Kotkaniemi who simply hasn’t lived up to his draft-day billing as a third overall pick. He was excellent in the bubble last playoffs, but has seen his game regress this season. He doesn’t move the needle much, but given Staal’s performance this year I’d much rather gamble on Kotkaniemi.
In terms of total value, Toronto’s forward group is just over 50 percent stronger than Montreal’s. The gap on defence is even larger where the Leafs’ top six is double Montreal’s.
On the back-end it’s about the Leafs, for the first time in a long time, having a completely functional top four. All the pieces are top four quality, fit well together and are completely balanced in filling specific niches. They can all move the puck really well which is a key part of Toronto’s success. According to data tracked by Corey Sznajder, the Leafs are one of the best teams in the entire league at exiting the zone with control and that’s on a mobile defence group.
Morgan Rielly is the strongest on the breakout and has no issues rushing it up the ice either. He may struggle on defence, but his offensive ability is nearly unmatched league-wide. He’s a crucial part of Toronto’s attack. Rielly had a much improved season where he had a 55.5 percent expected goals rate playing tough minutes. TJ Brodie was a big part of that and was an excellent off-season addition. He’s been exactly what the team has needed in the top four and he ended up leading the Leafs defence with a 57 percent expected goals rate. Jake Muzzin and Justin Holl were also in that range giving the Leafs two strong pairs that can control play.
The team’s biggest X-factor on the back end is the youngest, Rasmus Sandin, who may just have played his way onto the roster full-time after a nine-game stint. He may have been playing sheltered minutes, but a 59.5 percent expected goals rate and four points is nothing to scoff at. Alex Romanov is Sandin’s counterpart on the other side and he too has played sheltered minutes all season himself. In that time he’s managed just six points in 56 games, has a solid 54 percent expected goals rate, but has been out-scored. He’s a defender that Toronto really victimized this year as he had just a 39 percent expected goals rate against the Leafs. Brett Kulak, also on the third pair, also got crushed.
Montreal’s top four looks a lot less impressive in comparison to Toronto’s. Jeff Petry had a marvelous year that was comparable to Rielly’s offensively, but the five-on-five numbers weren’t nearly as strong. He led the team with a 54 percent expected goals rate that would grade out lower than five of Toronto’s six defenders. The further degradation of Shea Weber is an issue too as he no longer looks like a capable number one defenceman. He and partner Ben Chiarot are last on the team in expected goals percentage and Weber was only even for the year in terms of actual goals. Weber’s 19 points in 48 games is also his lowest scoring pace in a while, suggesting his offensive ability has likely left him. With his play-driving also in decline, it’s fair to ask how much of a difference he can make in this series, especially considering his current health being questionable. Weber earned the better of the scoring chance battle when facing the Leafs head-to-head this year, but was also out-scored 6-to-3 in seven games.
In net is where some people believe Montreal has the advantage and that would perhaps be true if the year was still 2016. I’m not sure why we’re still jumping through hoops about this, but Price had a .901 save percentage this year and allowed seven goals above expected in just 25 games. After an admittedly stellar run in the bubble many expected that to be the real Price, but as I argued in Montreal’s season preview, it was more than likely just a hot 10-game run.
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The idea of Price is much scarier than the actual goalie in between the pipes and while Price has the potential to steal the series, so does literally any goalie (recall the backup on this very team doing just that in 2017 against Minnesota). That’s just variance, baby.
What the goaltending values suggest is the likelihood of such an event happening, and with Price it’s likely lower than most people think. I mean, we just saw Jack Campbell have a hot stretch of his own more recently and he’s been very strong as a Leaf. There’s a reason he’s rated higher and that’s simply because he’s played better than Price. Campbell has earned his place in the starter’s crease this season and the difference between him and Frederik Andersen has been noticeable. Campbell finished the season with a .921 in 22 games while saving six goals above expected.
Price had a stretch that good to end the 2019-20 season, so maybe it’s just a small sample. The difference is that it’s all we really have to go on for Campbell. For Price, there’s so many more 22-game stretch where he isn’t even close to a .921 goaltender. In 110 distinct stretches over the last four seasons he has been at that level 38 percent of the time, with two-thirds of those coming in 2018-19 — his last actually good season.
Maybe that Price is still in there and getting him to full health might be the key to unlocking it, but his past two seasons leave a lot to be desired. There’s a big gap in net just as there is at forward and defence. There’s nowhere on the roster where Montreal has an advantage and it’s why the series is as lopsided as it is.
The bottom line
The Leafs have a stronger roster in every facet and have the results to show for it this year. From every possible angle you can look, this series looks like it’s Toronto’s to lose. Montreal started strong, but the talent just isn’t there and the usual territorial dominance slipped throughout the season. In this series, against this team, it wouldn’t even be an edge anyways.
Here’s the thing about Montreal though: The team lives for these kinds of scenarios — the us against the world underdog story. Twice over the past decade, the team has had no business winning a series — in 2010 against Washington and in 2014 against Boston — and the team pulled it off anyway. You can arguably count last year’s play-in against the Penguins too. The Canadiens live for playoff chaos, and Toronto lives for playoff disappointment. It’s a match made in narrative heaven.
But maybe the most chaotic thing of all for a series 42 years in the making is everything just going as expected. With the way these two teams have played all season, of late, and against each other, that would mean Toronto’s first playoff series win since 2004. The Leafs haven’t had many chances since, but this is their best one to finally break the ugly streak.
Data via Evolving Hockey, Natural Stat Trick, Hockey Stat Cards, NHL and Corey Sznajder
(Top photo: Kevin Sousa / NHLI via Getty Images)
