The Lakers, currently 41-30 and the No. 7 seed, enter the final day of the regular season with multiple playoff paths and possibilities. No Western Conference playoff seed is set. Certain outcomes are more likely than others, but Nos. 1 through 8 won’t be finalized until roughly 9 p.m. (PT) on Sunday.
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Following an encouraging return from LeBron James in a 122-115 win over the Pacers on Saturday, the Lakers, who have remained confident and patient all season as they dealt with injuries to their stars and multiple COVID-19 protocols absences, have won four games in a row and are entering the postseason with momentum.
“Let the chips fall where they may,” James said of their seeding. “As simple as that. We’re ready to go.”
To understand where the chips may fall on Sunday, here is a primer of the Lakers’ various seeding scenarios.
What are the most probable scenarios for the Lakers?
The Lakers have two seeding possibilities: No. 6 or No. 7.
Furthermore, there are three opponents the Lakers could face in the first round: the Phoenix Suns, Denver Nuggets or Utah Jazz (ordered from most to least likely).
Aside from the Lakers’ regular-season finale in New Orleans, the game to monitor is Denver-Portland. There are three seeding scenarios based on the outcomes of the two games.
- If Denver wins, and the Lakers win, Denver is No. 3, the Lakers are No. 6 and Portland is No. 7.
- If Denver wins, but the Lakers lose, Denver is No. 3, Portland is No. 6 and the Lakers are No. 7.
- If Portland wins, they’re No. 6 and the Lakers are No. 7, regardless of the outcome of their game. (Denver’s seeding would be determined by what happens with the Clippers, who play Oklahoma City.)
Denver has an incentive to tank the Portland game, ensuring Portland stays at No. 6 — or even moves up to No. 5 — and Denver doesn’t play the Lakers in the first round.
If the Lakers are the No. 7 seed, they will play either the Golden State Warriors or the Memphis Grizzlies in the play-in tournament. Coincidentally, Golden State and Memphis face off in the final game of the regular season to determine which team is the No. 8 seed.
As things stand, the Lakers are more likely to be the No. 7 seed, and play in the play-in tournament, than the No. 6 seed. The NBA’s scenario chart has the Lakers at No. 7 in 75 percent of their scenarios.
The Lakers’ most likely path is the No. 7 seed, a play-in game against the Warriors, a first-round series against Phoenix, a conference semifinals series against Denver or the Clippers, and then a conference finals against Utah, Denver or the Clippers.
Here are all of the possible scenarios, via the NBA:
Who would they face in the play-in tournament?
There are two possibilities: the Warriors or the Grizzlies.
The regular-season finale between the two will determine the No. 8 and 9 seeds. The winner plays the Lakers or Trail Blazers, with another shot at the No. 8 seed if they lose. The loser plays the No. 10 San Antonio Spurs, facing instant elimination.
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From a Lakers perspective, the Grizzlies are the preferred play-in opponent, though it’s close. But the Warriors have Stephen Curry, a top-five player and MVP candidate who’s having a season not far off his 2015-16 peak. Curry is capable of going supernova in a single game, March Madness-style. A group with Curry, Draymond Green and Steve Kerr is not to be taken lightly.
Ja Morant is a dynamic scorer and playmaker, Jaren Jackson Jr. is the type of stretch big that can hurt the Lakers, and Jonas Valanciunas is a bruiser that can cause matchup problems. But Memphis doesn’t have Curry, and that’s the swing factor here.
What is the best-case scenario?
The Lakers caught a break on Friday, when the Clippers decided to punt on their game against the Houston Rockets, ensuring that there is no scenario in which the Lakers and Clippers play in the first round. The Clippers remain the Lakers’ biggest threat in the West, and it would have been unfortunate for the Lakers to face their toughest opponent in the first round as James was still regaining his legs and the team was trying to establish a rhythm and continuity.
Now, the earliest the Lakers can play the Clippers is the conference semifinals, which is a win for the Lakers. Frankly, where the rest of the West falls along their playoff path isn’t as important.
The Lakers’ best outcome would be moving up to No. 6, avoiding the play-in tournament, enjoying a week of rest and then playing No. 3 Denver. If the Lakers advanced past the Nuggets, they’d play the winner of Phoenix-Portland/Golden State/Memphis (I’m ruling out San Antonio from both two play-in games and defeating Phoenix in the first round).
That would be a favorable path back to the Western Conference finals, where the Clippers, Utah or Dallas would likely await. Therefore, Lakers fans should be rooting for wins for the Lakers (duh), Nuggets and Grizzlies on Sunday.
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What is the worst-case scenario?
The Lakers’ worst-case scenario isn’t bracket-related, but rather health-related. They need their best players on the floor together, and as close to 100 percent as possible.
If James is healthy, the Lakers’ playoff path isn’t that important (with the Clippers matchup being the lone exception, but that has already worked out in their favor). It’s going to be difficult regardless, with the Lakers having to win four road series to repeat as champions.
However, the worst playoff path would probably feature the Lakers remaining in No. 7 and facing the Warriors in the play-in tournament, playing the Suns in the first round and then matching up against the Clippers in the conference semifinals (instead of the Nuggets or Suns). For what it’s worth, this is a very realistic scenario.
Accordingly, wins by the Trail Blazers, Clippers and Warriors on Sunday would be disadvantageous, setting up such a scenario.
Do the Lakers have a preference in outcome?
According to their three most important locker-room voices on Saturday, no. The Lakers have maintained all season that they want to win as many games as possible, and are confident that they would beat any opponent in a seven-game series as long as they’re healthy.
Lakers head coach Frank Vogel voiced a similar sentiment to James before the game, saying, “My opinion is, win as many games as you can and let the seeds fall where they may and be unafraid of any matchup. I believe in the basketball gods.”
Davis, who conducted his availability alongside James, agreed with James and Vogel, setting off a hilarious exchange.
“Same way,” Davis said. “We’re ready to play whatever game. Whether it’s playoffs, whether we’re the six-seed or whether we’ve got to play in the play-in for the seven-seed as a seven-seed then we don’t care. It’s not gonna stop us one way or the other, which one we do to take our mind off our goal, not gonna give us any discouragement because we’re not in the top six. But we really don’t care, we control what we can control and that’s winning this last game and letting the chips fall where they were, where they, where they, whatever you said.”
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“Where they may,” James said.
“Where they may,” Davis said.
“Nice,” James said.
The Lakers haven’t made up their mind as to which players are playing against the Pelicans on Sunday, Vogel, James and Davis each said. Vogel said he’s going to talk to the medical team to determine who should play, and how many minutes.
The Lakers are trying to accrue as many on-court reps as possible before the playoffs, but health remains the priority.
“We still could use a lot more time to find cohesiveness,” Vogel said. “But I thought there were a lot of positives with today’s game. It is a little bit of a snapshot of what we could look like. Certainly, on the defensive end, we can be a lot better than we were. We’ll have to be if we’re going to win in the playoffs. But we don’t really have control of how much time we have. So we just gotta make the best of whatever situation we end up in.
“And if we have to play a play-in game, we’re confident in what we can accomplish.”
(Photo: Ron Hoskins / NBAE via Getty Images)
