Last week, the NCAA announced its short list for postseason regionals and super regionals. The 2021 NCAA Tournament slate won’t be announced until May 31, and the list of 20 potential sites will be whittled down to 16 on May 30. Schools needed advance notice that they were in the running to host postseason games to prepare for COVID-19 testing facilities at their home sites. The announcement is a sign we are moving rapidly toward the end of the college baseball season, and many high school seasons have already wrapped for the year.
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That said, there is still time for prospects to move up MLB Draft boards, as several draft showcase events are going on now and scheduled for the early months of the summer. These final few weeks of the college season will be important for many draft hopefuls, however. Below are a few names making draft noise in recent weeks. As I’ve noted previously, these write-ups aren’t meant to be rankings — Keith Law has you covered there — but instead are a way to introduce some additional names who could join your favorite teams this July.
In this third edition of MLB Draft Heat Watch, we have a talented Florida outfielder who has his fans and his detractors among the scouting community, a Sacramento State right-hander who is allergic to walks, an intriguing high school shortstop from Louisiana, and more.
For all of The Athletic’s MLB Draft coverage, click here.
Jud Fabian, OF, Florida: Fabian hit two home runs for Florida on Saturday in its win over Georgia. In the two other games in the series, he collected just one hit in nine at-bats and struck out four times. If any series was going to encapsulate the essence of a prospect, the Georgia series for Fabian might be it.
There are few questions about the power of the right-handed-hitting, draft-eligible Gators sophomore. He leads the powerhouse SEC with 20 home runs. He’s fifth in the conference in walks and ninth in OPS with a 1.017 mark. These numbers are nothing new for Fabian, who had a 1.010 OPS in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season. But what also isn’t new is Fabian’s penchant for the swing-and-miss. He is second in the conference with 64 strikeouts, and those strikeouts have depressed his batting average (.267).
With even a quarter fewer strikeouts, Fabian might be among the top 10 picks in this year’s draft. As it is, projections range from mid-first round to late second. The concern is that while strikeouts are certainly tolerated at the big-league level, elite amateur (and even minor-league) prospects are expected to be able to make more regular contact. But if an organization believes there’s a mechanical fix with Fabian’s swing that will help correct this issue or that his struggles were due more to the layoff from the pandemic and less a prediction of future performance, he has plenty of tools to dream on.
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A 6-foot-2, 195-pound true center fielder, Fabian is a rare right-handed hitter and left-handed thrower. He has above-average speed to go along with plus power to all fields and has shown a willingness to work deep into counts. He has faced stiff competition throughout his collegiate career and has put up good numbers against top teams. He’s also a young collegiate player in this draft and won’t turn 21 until late September.
Tyler Hardman, 1B, Oklahoma: In a season filled with mostly disappointing offensive performances from collegiate draft prospects, Hardman has stood out as one of the top hitters in the country. The OU first baseman had an uneven first three seasons at the school, struggling his freshman year before putting together a solid sophomore season in 2019. His 2020 campaign was off to an average start before the shutdown, so he wasn’t high on a lot of teams’ draft boards coming into this season. He has put himself into top-10 round consideration with a huge 2021 season.
𝘠𝘢𝘳𝘥𝘰#LaunchPad | https://t.co/dmDKjVQsDL pic.twitter.com/VoVV0e3uqt
— Oklahoma Baseball (@OU_Baseball) April 3, 2021
In 50 games, Hardman is batting .399/.488/.655 with 30 extra-base hits and 45 RBIs. He has walked 33 times. Over the weekend, he had a huge series against Texas Tech, going 7-for-12 with two home runs and five doubles. That helped break a little “slump” that had lowered his batting average from .440 on April 24 to .387 on May 11.
Hardman was a third baseman in high school but has played first base almost exclusively in college. He could be tried in left field, but his future position is most likely first base, which means his bat will have to carry him as a prospect. Like Fabian, he has some swing-and-miss in his game (53 strikeouts in 203 at-bats thus far), but he has power to all fields and a solid hit tool. He’s already 22, so he’s on the older side for a college prospect (although there are a lot of 22- and 23-year-olds this season thanks to last year’s shutdown). His Big 12 Conference experience should allow him to start the 2022 season at High A or higher.
Peyton Stovall, SS, Haughton (LA) HS: Stovall’s high school season ended on May 8, but he will have a chance to raise his stock further during pre-draft showcase events. In a class that is notable for its high school shortstop prospects, Stovall did a lot during his senior season already to increase his profile. In 33 games, he hit .512/.669/1.047 with 12 home runs and 37 walks against only six strikeouts. Louisiana isn’t a hotbed for high school baseball, but those numbers are impressive regardless of the level of competition.
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Stovall will have a chance to prove he can hit elite pitching at the aforementioned showcase events. His hit tool is his best tool, as he combines an excellent eye with good plate coverage and the ability to spray the ball to all fields. He has some present power with room to add more as he develops. Stovall has played some second base, in addition to shortstop, during summer showcase events, and some scouts think that is where he will end up eventually thanks to a fringe-average arm. He doesn’t have the speed for center field but could play some corner outfield as well. Teams don’t often use first-round picks on high school prospects who profile as second basemen, but if a team believes Stovall’s hit tool will translate, he could be selected in the No. 30-40 pick range. He is an Arkansas commit.
Scott Randall, RHP, Sacramento State: Like pitchers who throw strikes and work deep into games? Then you’ll love Randall, who has been a strike-throwing machine for the Hornets this season. Going into this past weekend’s games, he was at the top of the NCAA leaderboard in strikeout-to-walk ratio with an 11.1 rate. He threw five scoreless innings Friday against San Francisco, striking out nine and walking one. Randall’s command has been a strength throughout his collegiate career, as he’s walked just 55 batters in 267 2/3 career innings.
What’s new this season is how frequently Randall is missing bats. After striking out 23 and walking just one in 25 innings in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, Randall has 93 strikeouts in 73 1/3 innings this season. He hasn’t sacrificed his command or his efficiency for the additional strikeouts — Randall has seven walks and is averaging more than six innings per start.
A redshirt junior, Randall will be almost 23 on draft day. He’s also on the smaller side for a right-handed starter (6-foot, 175 pounds). But with a low-90s fastball that can climb to 96 mph that he commands well and two average-to-above-average secondary offerings, Randall has the profile of a late second-day draft pick who moves quickly through a farm system.
Other recent performances of note
• Bullard, Texas, left-hander Hagen Smith threw his seventh no-hitter of the season in a playoff game Thursday. Smith has allowed just six hits in 67 innings this season and one run. He is an Arkansas commit.
2021 Hagen Smith (Bullard TX) 7th No-Hitter of the season – Playoffs 2nd Round worked 90-92 w/ FB to both halves, 2/8 CB 71-73, SL 75-77 & CH 80-81. Varied tempo in the windup – 7 IP 18K @RazorbackBSB signee.
Season numbers:
10-0, 67 IP, 6H, 1R, 1ER, 157K, 0.10 ERA, 0.433 WHIP pic.twitter.com/j2JC7Lzj8V— Perfect Game Texas (@Texas_PG) May 14, 2021
• South Carolina junior right-hander Brett Kerry threw a shutout against Kentucky on Saturday, his first nine-inning outing of the season. He struck out 10, didn’t walk a batter and allowed just four hits. That start came on the heels of a previous season-high six-inning outing against Mississippi State the weekend before. In that outing, he allowed only one run with six strikeouts. Kerry’s complete game Saturday was just his first start of the season, although he’s had several long relief appearances. He has a 1.80 ERA in 45 innings and a 75:9 strikeout-to-walk ratio for the Gamecocks.
• James Madison infielder Carson Bell drove in seven runs in a three-game series against William & Mary over the weekend. He had four extra-base hits and raised his season average from .263 to .309 over the three games.
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• Georgia Tech infielder Justyn-Henry Malloy had five hits in 13 at-bats in a three-game series against Miami over the weekend. The weekend began with a three-hit game Friday that included two home runs, a double and six RBIs. A transfer from Vanderbilt, the draft-eligible sophomore is batting .311 with 10 home runs and a 28:38 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 164 at-bats this season for the Yellow Jackets.
• Jackson Wentworth, a high-school right-hander from Urbandale, Iowa, had a strong showing at the Perfect Game National Pre-Draft Showcase on Sunday. Flashing a fastball that sat 91-93 mph, Wentworth struck out seven in three innings. He also showed a plus 12-6 curveball and a change-up. He’s a Kansas State commit.
(Photo of Jud Fabian: Gary McCullough / Associated Press)
