Read the latest on the college basketball Top 25 rankings.
Given all the roster upheaval we knew college basketball was going to undergo this offseason, the idea of ranking next season’s Top 25 the day after the NCAA championship game looked like the ultimate fool’s errand. And I was just the guy to do it!
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Things have changed quite a bit since then. College basketball was already experiencing transfer madness the last few years, but the forthcoming rule change allowing players to transfer once without sitting out has put that trend into overdrive. In addition, the NCAA passed a one-time rule to grant all players, including graduating seniors, an extra year of eligibility. That’s not even to mention the dozens of players who entered the NBA Draft but are retaining their collegiate eligibility. The deadline for those decisions is normally after the NBA Draft combine in May, but now that the draft has been pushed back to July 29, college players have until July 7 to make up their minds. In the past, I’ve waited until that deadline has passed to update my top 25, but because most of the transfer dust has settled, this is a good time to take another go at it.
A couple of thoughts before we get started. First, if a player is referenced as someone who transferred out or entered the NBA Draft, I used last year’s class to identify him. For the returning and incoming guys, I used their class for the 2021-22 season. Also, I stayed away from speculating as to which players will withdraw from the draft. If a player put his name in the draft, I assessed his team on the assumption he will not be back. That led me to drop several teams off my initial rankings: No. 10 Illinois (which lost Kofi Cockburn and Giorgi Bezhanishvili, at least temporarily), No. 18 Creighton (Marcus Zegarowski), No. 21 Memphis (Moussa Cisse), No. 22 USC (Isaiah Mobley), No. 23 West Virginia (Derek Culver) and No. 24 Louisville (David Johnson). Virginia Tech (Keve Aluma) and Virginia (Trey Murphy III) would have also been more strongly considered if they didn’t have key players still in the draft pool. If any of those guys withdraw from the draft, that will be reflected in my next update.
So there you have it. Now watch me spin this fool’s errand into some more fool’s gold. Meet ya in the comments!
1. Gonzaga
Last time: 1
Skinny: The Zags have gotten even stronger since I ranked them No. 1 the morning after their loss to Baylor in the championship game. At the time they had yet to receive a commitment from 7-foot freshman Chet Holmgren, the nation’s top high school senior who declared for the Zags on April 19. In late April, Gonzaga added another dynamic offensive player in Rasir Bolton, a 6-3 senior transfer from Iowa State who averaged 15.5 points, 4.8 rebounds and 3.9 assists last season. And on Saturday, Gonzaga lassoed yet another McDonald’s All-American in Nolan Hickman, a 6-2 point guard from Seattle who had previously committed to Kentucky. Those additions more than made up for the loss of 6-5 junior guard Joel Ayayi, who declared for the NBA Draft and signed with an agent. Gonzaga also dodged a bullet when last year’s leading scorer and rebounder, 6-10 junior forward Drew Timme, declined to enter the draft. Get ready for another barrage of “Is this Mark Few’s best team?” questions next season.
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2. Villanova
Last time: 15
Skinny: No program improved its lot more over the last six weeks than Villanova. When I ranked the Wildcats 15th, it was under the assumption that seniors Collin Gillespie and Jermaine Samuels would not return. But they have since announced they will be back for a super senior season, which means the Wildcats will return four of the top five scorers from last season’s Big East champs. Oh, and Jay Wright just got voted into the Hall of Fame, so he’s on quite a roll.
3. Michigan
Last time: 2
Skinny: I previously listed 6-1 senior guard Eli Brooks as one of Michigan’s departing players, but Brooks, who started every game he played in last season and averaged 9.5 points, 3.1 rebounds and 3.1 assists while frequently guarding the opponent’s best perimeter player, has since decided to return. Juwan Howard also landed DeVante’ Jones, a 6-1 senior who scored 19.3 points per game on 36.8 percent 3-point shooting at Coastal Carolina. That’s on top of the nation’s top-ranked recruiting class that is coming to Ann Arbor. Sophomore center Hunter Dickinson still has not announced his intentions regarding the NBA Draft, but if he is back as well, the Wolverines will be primed for a run at a title.
4. UCLA
Last time: 3
Skinny: Johnny Juzang was listed among the returnees last time around, so when he entered the NBA Draft it bumped the Bruins down. Juzang was the driving force behind the surprising run from the First Four to the Final Four, so his decision will have a big impact on UCLA’s prospects. The addition of former Rutgers center Myles Johnson out of the transfer portal will provide the Bruins with a physical presence and rim protection they lacked last season.
5. Baylor
Last time: 7
Skinny: Junior guard Matthew Mayer put his name in the NBA Draft, but it would be a surprise if he keeps it there. Scott Drew added 6-1 senior guard James Akinjo, but since he has already transferred once (from Georgetown to Arizona), he is not affected by the upcoming one-time transfer exception, and will thus need a waiver to be able to play next season. The Bears lost four starters from the national champs, but they won’t fall off by much.
6. Purdue
Last time: 4
Skinny: The Boilermakers’ ranking took a hit, for the time being at least, when 6-10 junior forward Trevion Williams, who averaged a team-best 15.5 points and 9.1 rebounds while also dishing 2.3 assists per game, entered his name in the NBA Draft. Williams is not hiring an agent and is not projected to be a first-round pick, so there’s still a good chance he returns for his senior season. If he does, the Boilermakers, who didn’t graduate any seniors or lose any significant players to the transfer portal, will have an excellent chance to make their first Final Four since 1980.
7. Kentucky
Last time: 14
Skinny: John Calipari had yet another good day on Monday when he secured a commitment from Georgia junior point guard Sahvir Wheeler, who led the SEC in assists last season. Calipari had already added two other significant players since my last ranking: C.J. Fredrick, a 6-3 junior guard who averaged 7.5 points on 47.4 percent 3-point shooting at Iowa last season, and TyTy Washington, a 6-3 point guard from Arizona who is ranked No. 11 in the class of 2021 by 247Sports.com. That should give the Cats a healthy mix of veteran returnees, high-caliber freshmen and older transfers who will put this program back on its usual blue-blood track. UK will be even stronger if 6-10 freshman forward Isaiah Jackson and 6-3 senior Davion Mintz withdraw from the NBA Draft and return to Lexington, as they are eligible to do.
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8. Tennessee
Last time: NR
Skinny: A few hours after my previous rankings were published, the Vols landed one of the top players in the transfer portal in 6-6 sophomore guard Justin Powell, who averaged 11.7 points, 6.1 rebounds and 4.7 assists during his first 10 games at Auburn before a concussion ended his season in early January. A little over a week later Barnes landed two prized recruits in Jonas Aidoo, a four-star 6-11 center from North Carolina who had previously signed with Marquette, and Brandon Huntley-Hatfield, a 6-9 forward from Pennsylvania whom 247Sports ranks as the No. 22 prospect in the Class of 2021. And on April 16, 6-9 forward John Fulkerson, who started all but one game over the last two years, opted to return. Barnes has also recently added Quentin Diboundje, a 6-6 guard from France whom 247Sports ranks as the No. 156 prospect in the class of 2021. With four returning starters and a recruiting class that is headlined by McDonald’s All-American point guard Kennedy Chandler, Tennessee should be in the chase for an SEC title next season.
9. Arkansas
Last time: NR
Skinny: The Razorbacks were staring into the abyss with the prospect of losing six of their top eight scorers from the team that made the Elite Eight, but once again Eric Musselman worked the transfer market to great effect. He procured three likely starters in Chris Lykes, a 5-7 grad transfer from Miami; Au’Diese Toney, a 6-6 senior guard from Pitt; and Stanley Umudue, a 6-6 senior forward from South Dakota who averaged 21.5 points, 7.0 rebounds and 3.0 assists per game. Arkansas should also benefit from the improvement of two freshmen who played extensive minutes last season, 6-3 guard Davonte Davis and 6-10 forward Jaylin Williams.
10. Alabama
Last time: 8
Skinny: It has been a mixed bag for the Crimson Tide since the end of the season. They got a commitment from 6-11 center Charles Bediako from IMG Academy, whom 247Sports.com ranks No. 31 nationally in the class of 2021, and also added a power-conference transfer in Nimari Burnett, a 6-4 sophomore guard from Texas Tech. Burnett came to Lubbock with significant hype as the school’s first McDonald’s All-American, but he left after averaging 5.3 points and 17.7 minutes in his first 12 games. Two other players I listed as returnees in April declared for the draft: point guard Jaden Shackelford and forward Josh Primo. Alabama will be good if those guys don’t come back, but it will be really good if they do.
11. Duke
Last time: 5
Skinny: The Blue Devils took a major, albeit unsurprising, hit when Matthew Hurt decided to turn pro and hire an agent. The 6-9 sophomore was voted first-team All-ACC after leading Duke in scoring (18.3) and rebounding (6.2). Since the previous ranking Duke also lost two more players to the transfer portal in 6-7 freshman forward Henry Coleman and 6-9 senior forward Patrick Tape, and Mike Krzyzewski was unable to land Patrick Baldwin Jr., a 6-10 McDonald’s All-American from Wisconsin who chose to play for this father, Pat, at Milwaukee. On the flip side, Krzyzewski signed a quality glue guy in Theo John, a rugged 6-9 senior forward from Marquette, and he is still bringing in three McDonald’s All-Americans next season. Because of the pandemic, Krzyzewski did not have a full summer and early fall to get his newbies up to speed last season, but that won’t be the case this year. That should yield a more Duke-like season in 2021-22.
12. Texas
Last time: NR
Skinny: The Longhorns made one very big change since the end of the NCAA Tournament: Chris Beard replaced Shaka Smart as coach. This will only be Beard’s seventh season as a head coach, but he proved in previous stops at Little Rock and Texas Tech that he can turn things around in a hurry. The Longhorns lost a lot of players by way of graduation, transfers and the NBA Draft, but Beard landed four transfers from Big 6 conferences: Timmy Allen, a 6-6 senior forward who averaged 17.2 points, 6.4 rebounds and 3.9 assists at Utah; Dylan Disu, a 6-9 junior forward who averaged 15.0 points and 9.2 rebounds at Vanderbilt; Christian Bishop, a 6-7 senior forward who averaged 11.0 points and 6.4 rebounds at Creighton; and Devin Askew, a 6-3 point guard from Kentucky who started 20 games as a freshman and put up 6.5 points and 2.9 assists per game. Beard also brought over a promising recruit in 6-6 forward Jaylon Tyson, who had previously committed to play for him at Texas Tech. Senior guard Courtney Ramey is eligible for the NBA Draft, but he has already indicated he is just looking for feedback from the league and plans on returning to Austin next season.
13. Houston
Last time: 9
Skinny: I counted the Cougars’ best player, 6-5 junior guard Quentin Grimes, as a returnee last time around, but to no one’s surprise he has since entered the NBA Draft and will not return. Kelvin Sampson has added three really good transfers in 6-4 senior guard Kyler Edwards, who averaged 10.1 points, 4.8 rebounds and 2.8 assists at Texas Tech; 6-11 senior forward Josh Carlton, who averaged 3.5 points and 3.7 rebounds at UConn; and 6-5 grad transfer Taze Moore, who was voted first-team All-Big West last season at Cal State Bakersfield.
14. Florida State
Last time: 12
Skinny: Senior M.J. Walker toyed with the idea of returning, but he announced his intentions to enter the NBA Draft last week. He was listed as a departure in my last rankings, but 7-1 sophomore center Balsa Koprivica was a projected returnee. He has since put his name in the NBA Draft and won’t be back. Leonard Hamilton added 6-6 sophomore guard Cam’Ron Fletcher, who played in just nine games at Kentucky last season.
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15. Ohio State
Last time: 13
Skinny: The Buckeyes’ top two players from last season, 6-3 junior guard Duane Washington and 6-7 sophomore forward E.J. Liddell, entered the NBA Draft. They are both retaining their eligibility, but for the time being I am ranking the Buckeyes as if those two will not be back. Chris Holtmann added a couple of good pieces in the transfer portal in 6-1 senior guard Jamari Wheeler, who averaged 6.8 points and 3.5 assists at Penn State, and 6-11 grad transfer Joey Brunk, who played three years at Butler and one at Indiana before sitting out last season with a back injury. The best news for the Buckeyes over the last six weeks was the decision of 6-8 glue guy Kyle Young to return for a super senior season.
16. Auburn
Last time: 25
Skinny: The Tigers have added three really good transfers since my previous ranking, including arguably the best player in the portal in 7-1 sophomore forward Walker Kessler, who averaged 8.2 points to go along with 5.3 rebounds over the last 10 games at North Carolina. Sophomore point guard Wendell Green averaged 15.8 points and 5.0 assists at Eastern Kentucky, and 6-1 senior guard Desi Sills averaged 7.5 points off the bench at Arkansas. Bruce Pearl is bringing back two of his top four scorers from last season and is adding 6-10 freshman forward Jabari Smith, a top-five high school recruit.
17. North Carolina
Last time: 17
Skinny: Junior forward Armando Bacot was counted as a returnee in the previous rankings, but he has since entered his name into the NBA Draft, though he is still considered likely to return to Chapel Hill. Newly promoted head coach Hubert Davis picked up a plum transfer in Brady Manek, a 6-9 grad transfer from Oklahoma who averaged 10.8 points last season and has shot 37.4 percent from 3 over his career. Another transfer, 6-8 junior forward Justin McKoy, is expected to play a reserve role after averaging 3.5 points in 11.3 minutes last season for Virginia.
18. Kansas
Last time: 6
Skinny: The Jayhawks have lost three significant players in the last six weeks. Their top and third-leading scorers, 6-5 junior guard Ochai Agbaji and 6-8 sophomore forward Jalen Wilson, entered the NBA Draft, and promising 6-5 freshman guard Bryce Thompson transferred to Oklahoma State. Agbaji and Wilson are protecting their eligibility, so if either or both come back that will raise the Jayhawks’ ranking. On the transfer front, Bill Self is bringing in Joseph Yesufu, a 6-foot junior guard from Drake who averaged 12.8 points last season. Former Arizona State guard Remy Martin, a two-time All-Pac-12 selection, announced on Monday he will transfer to Kansas if he plays another college season. But he’ll only play for KU if he withdraws from the NBA Draft, and he has yet to do so.
19. Maryland
Last time: 11
Skinny: The Terrapins’ fate hinges on the decisions of two players who are testing the NBA Draft waters: junior guards Aaron Wiggins and Eric Ayala. They were Maryland’s top two scorers last season. Already bolstered by two of the top transfers in the portal in 5-10 grad transfer Fatts Russell (Rhode Island) and 6-11 junior Qudus Wahab (Georgetown), Maryland also added Ian Martinez, a 6-3 guard who averaged 5.2 points as a freshman at Utah.
20. St. Bonaventure
Last time: 19
Skinny: Eight Bonnies entered the transfer portal, but only one, 6-4 junior guard Anthony Roberts, played a significant role last season. That aside, Mark Schmidt is returning all five starters from the team that won the Atlantic 10’s regular-season and tournament titles, and he is adding two Big 6 transfers in Abdoul-Karim Coulibaly, a 6-8 junior from Pitt, and Quadry Adams, a 6-3 sophomore guard from Wake Forest.
21. Oklahoma State
Last time: 16
Skinny: Cade Cunningham had not declared his intention to turn pro when I did my previous ranking, but I still listed him as a departed player because it was obvious he was leaving. Guard Avery Anderson briefly tested the draft waters, but he announced this month he will be back for his junior season. Three transfers have also been added who will push the starters for minutes: Bryce Thompson, a 6-5 sophomore from Kansas; Tyreek Smith, a 6-7 sophomore forward from Texas Tech; and Woody Newton, a 6-8 sophomore from Syracuse.
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22. UConn
Last time: NR
Skinny: It was no surprise that 6-5 sophomore guard James Bouknight turned pro, and the Huskies lost three role players to the transfer portal. Otherwise, Dan Hurley kept his roster pretty much intact. Tyler Polley, the team’s sixth man last season, entered the NBA Draft, but the 6-9 forward has said he plans to return for a super senior season. Four starters return from the team that finished third in the Big East, and Hurley is bringing in three freshmen who are all ranked in the top 60 nationally by 247Sports. If 6-9 junior forward Akok Akok is able to stay healthy and fulfill his potential, the Huskies could challenge Villanova for league supremacy.
23. Belmont
Last time: NR
Skinny: If roster stability is at a premium these days, then Belmont is the gold standard. The Bruins did not have a senior on the roster last season when they went 26-4 (18-2 OVC). Mitch Listau, a sophomore guard who averaged 3.1 points, transferred, but coach Casey Alexander did not lose any other players to the portal. Nor did he recruit any transfers. That means the Bruins are bringing back their team virtually intact, including five super seniors. Alexander also has a rising star in 6-2 sophomore guard JaCobi Wood, who ranked third on the team in scoring last season (11.3).
24. Syracuse
Last time: NR
Skinny: The Orange were on the verge of putting together a top-15 team, but they got hit with the unexpected transfers of 6-7 sophomore forward Quincy Guerrier and 6-5 freshman forward Kadary Richmond, as well as the decision of 6-5 junior guard Alan Griffin to enter the NBA Draft and sign with an agent. Jim Boeheim added a couple of really good players in Cole Swider, a 6-9 senior forward from Villanova who shot 40.2 percent from 3 last season, and Boeheim’s son, Jimmy, a 6-8 senior forward who averaged 16.7 points at Cornell. Jimmy will join his brother, Buddy, and 6-5 junior guard Joe Girard to form one of the most potent offensive perimeter groups in the country next season.
25. Michigan State
Last time: 20
Skinny: When I ranked the Spartans in April, leading scorer Aaron Henry, a 6-6 junior forward, had yet to declare for the NBA Draft. He did just that on April 12, which means Michigan State will be losing three of its top four scorers. Still, there is enough talent here for the Spartans to be competitive in the Big Ten. They’ll need 6-9 junior forward Joey Hauser, who averaged 9.7 points and 5.6 rebounds, to take a big step forward, and they’ll need Northeastern transfer Tyson Walker, a 6-foot junior, to be a capable point guard. The arrival of 6-6 freshman guard Max Christie, a McDonald’s All-American from Illinois, will also help.
Next 10
26. Virginia Tech
27. West Virginia
28. Nevada
29. Oregon
30. Memphis
31. Virginia
32. Indiana
33. Illinois
34. USC
35. LSU
(Top photo of Gonzaga’s Andrew Nembhard, left, and Drew Timme: C. Morgan Engel / NCAA Photos via Getty Images)