Batter performance against various pitches is much more descriptive than predictive, but it occurred to me that those hitters who are hitting the fastball, but not hitting at least three other pitches, might be in trouble. Fastball usage in MLB is stable from 2020 but way down from five years ago, so it seems to me that teams will have no qualms in refusing to accommodate those who like the heat. If the guy can hit secondary stuff it won’t matter, but if they aren’t hitting three or more secondary pitches, there is no reason they should see fastball strikes — and unless it’s a mistake or a 3-0 pitch, they won’t. That’s the theory anyway.
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I rank the following hitters by highest Pval on the fastball, with the bottom guys on the list barely netting out positive against hard stuff, which means their hitting game is hanging by a thread. The number in parentheses is how many secondary pitches show negative Pval. It’s still early, with plenty of dumb luck unaccounted for, but having trouble with three or more pitches should portend hills on the horizon, even for the best of these guys.
Jesse Winker (3)
Nick Solak (4)
Giancarlo Stanton (3)
Miguel Rojas (3)
Randy Arozarena (4)
Evan Longoria (4)
Marcus Semien (3)
Michael Brantley (4)
Joey Gallo (4)
Dominic Smith (4)
Whit Merrifield (3)
Niko Goodrum (4)
Will Smith (3)
DJ LeMahieu (3)
Jeff McNeil (3)
Victor Robles (3)
Willy Adames (3)
Marcell Ozuna (3)
Paul DeJong (4)
Dylan Moore (3)
Amed Rosario (3)
Jorge Soler (4)
Cavan Biggio (3)
Jackie Bradley Jr. (4)
As I said, I’m not sure about the predictive value. Simply seeing the ball better could wipe it all out. Recovering from a minor injury could too. I would add some general principles: those who walk a lot have less to fear, and minor factors might be those who bat ahead of power hitters, base stealers, and those who walk a lot (no pitcher wants to walk two batters in a row).
A few of these guys — Arozarena, Dom Smith, McNeil, Biggio — have been adjusted to, and will have to readjust. This is well worth watching, as they’re all struggling.
There is no good reason to throw fastballs to Robles, Adames, Moore, Rosario or Bradley. All are highly suspect as mixed league assets going forward. Robles might be the exception, at least he’s been quite good at laying off junk.
A positive angle on Pval is noting those who are hitting everything, or almost everything. Here are those who have no more than one negative Pval. I rank them by overall Pval (for all pitches), including any minus values:
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 17.7*
Xander Bogaerts 17.5
Mike Trout 16.5*
Kris Bryant 16.5
Ronald Acuña Jr. 16.2*
Nick Castellanos 15
Byron Buxton 14.8
Carson Kelly 14*
Bryce Harper 13.7
Yuli Gurriel 13.5
J.D. Martinez 13.3
Max Muncy 13.1*
Cedric Mullins 12.9*
Rafael Devers 12.7
Justin Turner 12.1*
Yermín Mercedes 12
Shohei Ohtani 11.7
Aaron Judge 11.3
Jared Walsh 11.2
Buster Posey 11*
Chris Taylor 11*
Yordan Alvarez 10.6
J.T. Realmuto 10.5
José Ramírez 10.1
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There are many others in the 5-to-9.9 range. It’s worth looking at for particular hitters, definitely a piece of the puzzle.
That’s really close to the list of the best hitters in baseball this year. If not predictive it is nevertheless real; it has been done therefore it can be done, and what has been done is beating the pitchers at least three ways. Rejoice and be reassured.
It also occurred to me that an extra positive would be those on the list who aren’t swinging at bad pitches, so I put an asterisk after those hitters who are at least three points better than the MLB O-zone swing percentage. If they’re hitting everything, and not swinging at bad pitches, they should keep up the good work. I guess we knew that… but Carson Kelly, baby! And it’s nice company for Jared Walsh, who is a fantastic bet for 100 RBI.
If this is the Year of the Pitcher, why are there 119 pitchers with ERAs over 5.00 (min. 10 IP)? If you count all pitchers, there are 217 — more than seven per MLB team! This is, of course, because the good pitchers pitch less, therefore the bad pitchers pitch more. This YOP stuff is baloney anyway. They really mean, “the MLB ERA is the lowest it’s been since the Dark Ages of 2015.” At 4.06, this is hardly 1968.
And despite 13-man pitching staffs, teams are still using position players in blowouts. But you know what really gets me? The only time they leave the pitchers in is when they’re getting hammered. Yes, they have to rest the eight-man bullpen. Could this be any more bass-ackwards? Can we please get the analytics on this?
Meanwhile, there are more injuries than ever, every single year.
On the hunt for relievers with macro strikeouts and micro walks, it’s always better to get the guy with more Batters Faced when there is a choice. On this basis I should prefer Cole Sulser (BAL) to Austin Adams (SD), but it may not be so simple. The good news is that they both figure to help us.
Sulser has faced 50 batters in 10 games, striking out 21 and walking two. That’s all you need to see — he’s going to be good, even if he’s not that good. It doesn’t matter that he’s on the Orioles, since he has done this on the Orioles. That team is far from terrible anyway, at least when they send a good pitcher to the mound. Now Sulser should vulture some Wins, and later he could get the ninth inning. Anyway, he’ll beat your sixth SP when your No. 6 has one road start for the week.
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The potential problem is that Sulser has shown an extreme reverse platoon split among his 50 BFs — .079 wOBA vs. 20 lefties but .367 vs. 30 righties. This may mean nothing, or not much, but if it holds up, perhaps Sulser will lose BFs per appearance.
This should open our minds to Adams, who is toiling for the Pads in a favorable Win locale. He has faced 56 batters in 16 appearances, a stingy 3.5, but then he’s pitching well and should therefore start pitching more, plus he’s getting lefties out. Adams throws almost all sliders (89%), so his 4% walk rate is probably not going to last, but it’s fair to say that he has proved his point.
(Top photo: Steph Chambers/Getty Images)
