Ryan Graves has heard the narrative. He knows the Avalanche’s fast style of play gets questioned, and he seemed ready to talk about it Saturday after a full-team skate.
“Teams have been trying to say all year how physical they’re going to be with us; St. Louis did the same thing,” the Colorado defenseman said, referencing the Avalanche’s first-round sweep of the Blues. “We don’t shy away from it. We’re not worried about it. It’s something we think we can overcome with our speed. We know that our speed will overcome any physicality other teams may bring our way.”
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Well, he and his teammates are in for another physical matchup in the second round, with the Avalanche and Vegas Golden Knights set to square off starting Sunday evening with Game 1. It’s a best-of-seven playoff series that in some ways felt destined all year, between two star-studded teams that finished tied for the most points in the NHL.
Whereas the Avalanche disposed of St. Louis quickly, Vegas went seven games with Minnesota, winning 6-2 on Friday to advance. Colorado hasn’t played since Sunday, allowing players to rest and recover, but the Golden Knights might be riding an emotional high after a Game 7 win, even if they have a few more bumps and bruises.
“We knew that to get to where we want to go, we’d have to go through them in the second round,” Vegas winger Max Pacioretty said Friday night. “Everyone believes that they’re the measuring-stick team in the league. They’ve been sitting at home, probably resting up, but no matter what, we’ve got to make life difficult, especially on their star players.”
With Game 1 coming up, Golden Knights writer Jesse Granger and Avalanche writer Peter Baugh break down the matchup:
Big questions
How will Vegas try to contain the Avalanche’s top line?
Stopping Colorado’s super line is a near impossibility, but there might not be a team better equipped than the Golden Knights to at least slow it down. Vegas will hope to contain Nathan MacKinnon’s speed in transition and force the Avalanche’s top line to score with sustained zone time. That minimizes Colorado’s speed advantage and emphasizes the Golden Knights’ edge in size and strength. MacKinnon, Gabriel Landeskog and Mikko Rantanen are capable of taking over games, but Vegas did a relatively good job against them in the regular season.
Colorado averaged a league-high 3.75 goals per game in their 48 games against the rest of the West division but only 2.13 against the Golden Knights. MacKinnon, Landeskog and Rantanen combined for only three goals against Vegas. As to who will actually match up with those three on the ice, it will most likely be Alex Pietrangelo and Alec Martinez. In the final regular-season meeting, on May 10, Pietrangelo was on the ice for 13:28 of MacKinnon’s 16:58 of even-strength ice time. The Golden Knights’ big free-agency signing hasn’t had the season many hoped for, but if he can contain MacKinnon in this series, he would more than make up for it. — Granger
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How much of an impact will the time off have on the Avalanche?
By the time the puck drops Sunday, Colorado will have gone nearly a full week without playing a game. Forward Tyson Jost called the rest a weapon, saying it was important to close out the Blues quickly. That gave Colorado time to recover after a short but physical series.
“I’m sure (players) are really appreciating their bodies healing and resting,” MacKinnon said before the Avalanche’s second-round opponent was known. “Whoever we play Sunday, we’ll be ready to go. We’ve been working really hard at practice.”
The time off could also lend itself to rust. To combat that, Colorado had three full-team practices during the week, as well as optional skates the other days (except for Monday, the day after the Blues series ended, when players got a day off).
“When you talk about rust, it might be for five, six, seven minutes in the first period,” backup goaltender Devan Dubnyk said. “I don’t think it’s going to extend beyond that. … I think it’s a real advantage for us to have the rest that we had.” — Baugh
Can the goaltending for the Golden Knights hold up against Colorado’s elite attack?
The most interesting matchup of this series, at least in my eyes, is how Colorado’s elite scorers will fare against the NHL’s best goaltending. Marc-Andre Fleury was spectacular in the regular season, and that excellence has rolled right into the playoffs. He saved 3.2 goals above average in the opening round against Minnesota and was the only goalie to shut out the Avalanche this season (he did it twice).
There’s also a chance Robin Lehner sees some ice time in this series after not playing in the first round. He combined with Fleury to allow the fewest goals in the NHL this season, and either goalie will give an exceptional Avalanche attack its toughest test to date. Their contrasting styles could also throw a wrinkle into Colorado’s offensive strategy, as Lehner plays a much quieter, positional game, contrasting with Fleury’s aggressive, acrobatic style. — Granger
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How much does Nazem Kadri’s absence hurt?
Kadri is a proven postseason performer (18 points in 15 playoff games last season), and his hardworking style is productive in the playoffs. He had one assist in the two games against the Blues before his eight-game suspension, which he appealed. That’s now in the hands of NHL commissioner Gary Bettman.
As strong as Kadri was last postseason, he had a tough end to the regular season, logging only one goal and six assists in the final 26 games. J.T. Compher has held his own filling in on the second line, but Kadri’s absence certainly detracts from Colorado’s forward depth. If a few more forwards get injured, the Avalanche might have to turn to inexperienced players, such as Sampo Ranta, in what could be a tight, physical series. — Baugh
Projected lineups
Avalanche
Forwards
Gabriel Landeskog-Nathan MacKinnon-Mikko Rantanen
Andre Burakovsky-J.T. Compher-Joonas Donskoi
Brandon Saad-Tyson Jost-Valeri Nichushkin
Carl Soderberg-Pierre-Edouard Bellemare-Alex Newhook
Defensemen
Devon Toews-Cale Makar
Ryan Graves-Samuel Girard
Patrik Nemeth-Conor Timmins
Goaltender
Philipp Grubauer
Extras: Forwards Kiefer Sherwood, Sampo Ranta and Nazem Kadri (suspended through Game 6, pending appeal), defensemen Jacob MacDonald and Bowen Byram, goaltenders Devan Dubnyk and Jonas Johansson
Quick reflections: The Avalanche’s lineup likely won’t change much from the first round. Why would it? Colorado dominated the Blues, and every forward logged at least one point in the series. Ranta could slot in if Newhook (back) isn’t ready to go or if coach Jared Bednar thinks he lines up well against Vegas, and MacDonald and Byram are options to enter the lineup if Colorado needs extra defensemen. — Baugh
Golden Knights
Forwards
Max Pacioretty–Chandler Stephenson–Mark Stone
Jonathan Marchessault–William Karlsson–Reilly Smith
Mattias Janmark–Nic Roy–Alex Tuch
William Carrier–Patrick Brown–Ryan Reaves
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Defensemen
Alec Martinez–Alex Pietrangelo
Nick Holden–Shea Theodore
Nic Hague–Zach Whitecloud
Goaltenders
Marc-Andre Fleury
Robin Lehner
Extras: Forwards Keegan Kolesar and Dylan Sikura, defensemen Brayden McNabb (COVID-19) and Dylan Coghlan, goaltender Oscar Dansk
Quick reflections: Pacioretty is a welcome addition to the lineup just in time for this series. Perhaps just as important, his return allows Tuch to play in his usual third-line role, which enhances Vegas’ ability to match Colorado’s forward depth. Kolesar was a healthy scratch in Game 7 against the Wild after playing the first six games. He’s an option if coach Peter DeBoer wants to switch up things or would be the first replacement in case of injury. — Granger
Injury outlook
Avalanche
The Avalanche’s core players are good to go, and the team is mostly healthy, at least among players who’ve been available most of the season. Newhook suffered a back injury in Game 4 of the first round, but Bednar said he should be ready for the series. He’s been skating, though Ranta has spent time in his spot on the fourth line at this week’s practices. … Byram, who hasn’t played since a high hit from Kolesar on March 25, was cleared to play going into the first round, and Colorado could call on him if Bednar decides to shake up the defensive pairings. … Backup goalie Pavel Francouz (lower body) is out for the season. He suffered a lower-body injury before playing a game this season. … Logan O’Connor (lower body) has progressed more quickly than expected and could be an option at some point, Bednar said. He has skated on his own and with small groups. … Matt Calvert (upper body) and Erik Johnson (upper body) are out long term, per Bednar, and are doubtful to return by the end of the playoffs. Calvert, who played 19 games this season, had surgery, and Johnson, who played four, has yet to resume skating. — Baugh
Golden Knights
Vegas received a massive boost when Pacioretty returned to the lineup for Friday’s Game 7. It was his first appearance since May 1, and he showed rust early but eventually found his rhythm and scored what turned out to be the winning goal. He should be in the lineup against Colorado but is far from fully healthy. … Brayden McNabb missed the final two games of the first round after testing positive for COVID-19. He remains on the NHL’s COVID-19 list, and his availability is unknown. If he does eventually return, he’ll likely slot back into his second-pair role next to Shea Theodore. … Ryan Reaves returned to the lineup for Game 7 after a false-positive COVID-19 test led to his being held out of Game 6, and he’s fully healthy entering the second round. … Tomas Nosek left Game 2 with an undisclosed injury and has not returned. He hasn’t skated with the team since, and despite DeBoer calling his status a game-time decision, a return doesn’t seem imminent. He could be an option as the series goes on, though. … Rookie forward Peyton Krebs underwent surgery to repair a fractured jaw after taking a puck to the face on May 8. GM Kelly McCrimmon said Saturday that Krebs has progressed more quickly than the team initially expected and could be an option later in the playoffs, depending on how far Vegas advances. It’s unclear whether that could happen in this series or if DeBoer would insert him into the lineup even if he is available. — Granger
X-factors
Baugh’s take: Grubauer has had the best season of his career, and he was strong in the St. Louis series, posting a .936 save percentage. Vegas is likely to create better scoring opportunities than St. Louis did, so looking to Grubauer to replicate his first-round numbers is a big expectation. If he plays at a similar level, though, moving well across the crease and halting high-danger chances, the Avalanche will be in good shape, even if his numbers are slightly less prolific than they were against St. Louis.
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Fleury will obviously be key for Vegas. He’s played like a Vezina Trophy candidate this season, and the Golden Knights are probably in trouble if he’s anything less than that in the second round. Tuch can also pose problems for opponents. He had three goals in eight games against the Avalanche this season and has great speed, which helped him to an 18-goal season.
Granger’s take: Pacioretty led the Golden Knights with six goals against the Avalanche this season. No other player had more than three. After a career season, Pacioretty missed nearly the entire first round with an undisclosed injury but returned for Game 7, and his impact was immediately felt. He’s the best pure scorer on a team that lacks that particular skill set, and he creates time and space for Mark Stone, who looks like a different player when he’s playing alongside Pacioretty. Pacioretty not only provides a scoring boost for Vegas’ top line but also bumps Tuch back down to his normal spot on the third line, where he’s a nightmare matchup for any team.
“It changed, I thought, everything about our confidence,” DeBoer said of Pacioretty’s return to the lineup against the Wild. “(It changed) our confidence to score, and it slotted our lines properly.”
For Colorado: Pierre-Edouard Bellemare was once the key to the Vegas fourth line, and now he’s doing the same thing in Colorado. Bellemare brings defensive responsibility every shift and pitches in just enough offensively. He’s done that more often against his former teammates, with six points in 10 games against Vegas. The Avalanche have an advantage when the top lines are compared, and I think the Golden Knights have the stronger middle six. That leaves us with a battle of the fourth lines, and I think Bellemare could be the difference-maker there.
By the numbers
Regular-season meetings
- March 14: Vegas 1, Colorado 0
- March 16: Colorado 3, Vegas 2
- March 20: Colorado 3, Vegas 2
- March 22: Vegas 3, Colorado 0
- March 25: Colorado 5, Vegas 1
- March 27: Vegas 3, Colorado 2 (OT)
- April 28: Vegas 5, Colorado 2
- May 10: Colorado 2, Vegas 1
Golden Knights’ leading scorers
- Regular season: Mark Stone (61)
- Against Colorado: Max Pacioretty (8)
- Playoffs: Mattias Janmark (6)
Avalanche’s leading scorers
- Regular season: Mikko Rantanen (66)
- Against Vegas: Nathan MacKinnon (6)
- Playoffs: Nathan MacKinnon (9)
Avalanche goalies
Philipp Grubauer: Regular season — 40 games (30-9-1), .922 save percentage, 1.95 goals-against average. Against Vegas — 7 games (4-2-1), .935 save percentage, 1.86 GAA. Round 1 — 4 games (4-0), .936 save percentage, 1.75 GAA.
Devan Dubnyk (all stats while with the Avalanche): Regular season — 5 games (3-2), .886 save percentage, 3.26 GAA. Against Vegas — 1 game (0-1), .840 save percentage, 4.24 GAA.
Jonas Johansson (all stats with the Avalanche): Regular season — 8 games (5-1-1), .913 save percentage, 2.06 GAA. Against Vegas — N/A.
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Golden Knights goalies
Marc-Andre Fleury: Regular season — 36 games (26-10-0), .928 save percentage, 1.98 GAA. Against Colorado — 7 games (4-3), .932 save percentage, 2.14 GAA. Round 1 — 7 games (4-3), .931 save percentage, 1.71 GAA.
Robin Lehner: Regular season — 19 games (13-4-2), .913 save percentage, 2.29 GAA. Against Colorado — 1 game (0-1-0), .905 save percentage, 2.06 GAA.
What has to happen for the Avalanche to win the series?
If Colorado can stay healthy, it has as good a chance as any team still in the playoffs to hoist the Stanley Cup. That health will be crucial in what could be a bruising series against the Golden Knights. The top line will have to continue to excel (MacKinnon, Landeskog and Rantanen each had at least seven points in four games against the Blues), and the team could really thrive if middle-six forwards such as Saad and Burakovsky can provide scoring depth. The Avalanche defense has done a great job of making Grubauer’s life easy this season, but the goalie will have to be on his game against Vegas, especially with Pacioretty back in the fold for Vegas. Grubauer stole a regular-season game from the Golden Knights earlier this month; if he can do the same in this series, it could go a long way toward helping the team advance. — Baugh
What has to happen for the Golden Knights to win the series?
The recipe is simple. They need exceptional goaltending — whether it’s Fleury or Lehner in net — and timely scoring from their stars. There are few teams in the league Vegas doesn’t want to get into a track meet with, but Colorado is one of them. In this rare case, it’s in Vegas’ best interest to play low-event hockey and try to grind through these games rather than playing free-flowing, up-and-down hockey. If the Golden Knights can be physical with the Avalanche in the neutral zone to limit transition opportunities, rely on their goalies and get the occasional spectacular play from Stone and Pacioretty, they can pull off their first playoff upset since the 2018 Western Conference finals in Winnipeg.
(Photo of Nathan MacKinnon, left, and Alex Pietrangelo: Ethan Miller / Getty Images)