Like so many things in so many industries, the normal logic of the professional hockey business has been flipped on its head over the past 15 months. And arguably no specific area of the on-ice product has been more dramatically impacted than unrestricted free agency.
For a generation, unrestricted free agency was a mug’s game for NHL teams. A necessary evil, at best.
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Between 2009 and 2019, nearly 80 percent of all unrestricted free agent (UFA) contracts resulted in NHL teams overpaying for “wins,” according to some eye-opening research by The Athletic’s Dom Luszczyszyn. Only one in five UFA contracts from the past decade returned surplus value to the team placing it.
The offseason of 2020 was a rude awakening, a significant rupture. The way NHL teams did business before the pandemic was cast aside, and suddenly, there was value to be had on the UFA market.
Superstar-level players like Taylor Hall signed for one year. Bona fide top-line players like Tyler Toffoli settled for team-friendly contracts days after the market opened. Credible middle-six pieces like Mike Hoffman and Mikael Granlund waited until the eve of training camp to get modest one-year deals done.
Some players — like former Vancouver Canucks goaltender Jacob Markstrom — still signed deals worthy of legitimate sticker shock, but that was the exception. It used to be the rule.
A more restrained buyer’s market — like the one that characterized the free agent “frenzy” in October 2020 — will likely carry over when the market opens this summer on July 28. Perhaps the prospect of selling tickets again this fall will cause purse strings to loosen a bit, but the flat cap ensures that any such bounce back will be modest.
For the vast majority of unrestricted players, there simply won’t be enough money in the system for those “wow” valuations to shape the marketplace.
Complicating matters further for UFAs is the expansion process. Most teams — the Canucks included — will prefer to wait until after the Seattle Kraken 2021 expansion draft has concluded to extend their own pending unrestricted free agents in order to preserve flexibility in the composition of their protected list.
There’s some risk there too, however, as the Kraken will be permitted an exclusive window to discuss a contract with any team’s pending UFA players.
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As the industry grapples with this complex environment and what comes next, the Canucks are facing a series of key decisions on three veteran unrestricted free agents this offseason: Alex Edler, Travis Hamonic and Brandon Sutter.
How should they proceed in those negotiations?
To give the VIPs a sense of what factors the club should be weighing, we’re going to lean on Luszczyszyn’s Game Score Value Added (GSVA) projection model. GSVA provides us with a baseline of expected performance for Vancouver’s highest-profile UFA players. It permits us to have something solid to utilize in assessing what types of risks and considerations the club should be taking into account in making their decisions, both short and long term.
Of course, qualifiers apply. No team leans solely on a single model in making their decisions, nor should they. Human factors matter, so too does fit.
We also have to keep in mind that the three players we’re discussing are all older, veteran players. Any model forecasting the future performance of players over 30 is likely to cast a harsh light. That doesn’t change the fact, unlikely as any worthwhile model will say it is, that in sports sometimes a 38-year-old player explodes to provide their team with enormous value, as Jason Spezza did in Toronto this past season, for example.
The key in utilizing GSVA is to remember that it’s a tool — and a useful one — but it’s not the whole picture. As we’ve previously noted in similar exercises:
An Allen key can help you build that Lack coffee table you bought from IKEA, but it’s not enough on its own to prevent you from putting that one surface on the wrong way. Common sense matters too.
Models are still a useful tool in providing us with a hard baseline, based on data, trends and historical precedent.
With those qualifiers in mind, let’s dive into what GSVA tells us about how the Canucks should proceed in negotiations with Edler, Sutter and Hamonic this offseason.
Alex Edler
Position: Left-handed defender
Age: 35
2020-21 statistics: 52 GP, 0-8-8
Expiring contract: Two years, $6 million AAV
It’s only a matter of time before Alex Edler’s name and likeness are mounted into the ring of honour at Rogers Arena. His resume is that of the greatest defenceman in franchise history.
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Edler’s game has evolved significantly as he’s aged and he’s still Vancouver’s smartest two-way defender. The big question for the Canucks in deciding whether to re-sign Edler or not is: are the feet still there? Can he keep up with the pace of a league that seems to get faster and faster every year?
While there are some indicators — like his declining offensive production — that suggest that Edler’s time as an effective contributor has passed, when you look under the hood at his individual contributions this past season, they’re not out of line with what he’s done previously. The lack of offence at 5-on-5 last season appears to be percentage-based more than anything and his penalties taken rate was actually lower this season than it was in the previous few years.
There’s no question that Edler’s value is nonexistent in transition at this stage of his career — he’s increasingly ineffective both defending the rush and inactive making plays with his feet — but for the most part, while battling difficult competition, Edler was still a net positive two-way contributor for Vancouver last season. He was sufficiently useful that it won’t be straightforward to replace him on the trade market or in free agency if he leaves the club, and there are certainly no in-house options to handle the type of matchup burden that Edler has been tasked with throughout the Travis Green era.
In terms of Edler’s GSVA projection, the model suggests that the stalwart Canucks defender still has another year where he can probably be counted on to be a top-four calibre contributor, although it gets extremely dicey beyond that as Edler hits his late 30s:
(Editor’s note: the age of the player hasn’t been adjusted on the GSVA aging curve graphs in this piece.)
It’s perhaps counterintuitive, but the GSVA projections suggest that in terms of which Vancouver UFAs are the best bets to return surplus value next season on a team-friendly, short-term contract, Edler is at the very top of the list.
Managing the term of the deal will be key, as it was for the Canucks last time in holding firm to a two-year offer for Edler despite significant public pressure and internal debate on the matter. Still, GSVA would expect the Canucks to get real value out of signing Edler to something like a one-year deal at $3 million or a two-year deal at $5 million.
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The other side of this coin is that the fit for Edler is a bit tricky. In an ideal world, the Canucks would find a way to play Edler on the third pair and limit his minutes significantly over the course of an 82-game season. The club isn’t really constructed to accommodate a rigid load management program for Edler as it stands, particularly as the club’s other probable lefty defenders for next season — Quinn Hughes, Jack Rathbone and Olli Juolevi — are all younger players unlikely to be thrown ruthlessly at tough matchups the way Edler is.
Still, if Edler is motivated enough to stay in Vancouver to sign a short-term deal with a team-friendly cap hit, the club could do a lot worse and shouldn’t allow the perfect to be the enemy of the good on this file.
Brandon Sutter
Position: Centre
Age: 32
2020-21 statistics: 43 GP, 9-3-12
Expiring contract: Five years, $4.375 million AAV
In the minds of die-hard Canucks fans Brandon Sutter will probably never eclipse the trade, the extension, the “foundational” label and the durability issues he’s battled throughout his years with Vancouver.
That’s unfortunate because, when he’s healthy, Sutter has been a useful player. He hasn’t been on an efficient deal and he certainly isn’t without his flaws, but he’s been a capable penalty killer, a legitimate one-shot scoring threat and a tremendous teammate.
Sutter wants to stay in Vancouver and told management as much prior to the trade deadline. There’s a school of thought that perhaps if Sutter is appropriately slotted as a fourth-line player on a reasonable ticket, that could pay dividends for the club.
The GSVA model, however, suggests strongly that the club should be aiming higher in seeking to upgrade their bottom-six forward group:
Based on Dom’s model, Sutter is already unlikely to provide more than replacement level value as early as next season.
The model suggests that unless it’s a league-minimum deal, the club would be best served to try to identify other players with the versatility to play centre and who can kill penalties on the open market. There aren’t many better options poised to be available in free agency as it stands right now, but if the goal is to sign value contracts for players that have a chance of providing the club with surplus value, even an affordable deal for Sutter doesn’t fit the bill.
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Now, of course, there are reasons to be a bit more bullish than the GSVA model is on Sutter’s ability to contribute next season, particularly if he’s primarily a fourth-line right winger with the versatility to move into the middle if necessary. In the event that Jay Beagle returns next season, however, the club absolutely needs to limit their redundancies and build a bottom six that can do more than kill penalties and play solidly in-zone (while spending the majority of their shifts there).
Of course, even if you think this projection is too harsh, it’s worth noting that at Sutter’s age and stage, if the club returns him for next season, it should be as a fourth-line player. With how the club’s cap sheet is shaping up for next season, it would advisable for the Canucks to make sure that any bottom of the lineup pieces are below the $1.125 million level that a club can bury in the minors without cap ramifications, whether it’s a value bet on the open market or a well-respected veteran taking a steep pay cut to stay with the club.
Travis Hamonic
Position: Right-handed defenceman
Age: 30
2020-21 statistics: 38 GP, 3-7-10
Expiring contract: One year, $1.125 million
Of Vancouver’s unrestricted free agent players, Travis Hamonic is thought to be the likeliest to remain with the club.
Hamonic wants to play in western Canada, has enjoyed his time with the organization, has the trust of Vancouver’s coaching staff, and the two sides spoke in earnest about an extension well ahead of the trade deadline. There was enough common ground at that time that the club didn’t aggressively explore asking Hamonic to waive his no-move clause.
Put all that together and re-signing Hamonic seems like only a matter of time. A fait accompli on the other side of the expansion draft.
GSVA isn’t particularly high on Hamonic, although if the club is able to carefully manage the term and money it takes to get the deal done, they could still extract some value, particularly if Hamonic continues to be glued to Hughes’ right side next season at 5-on-5:
GSVA suggests that Hamonic has a few years left as an everyday player, but is best suited already to a bottom-pairing role. Dom’s model also suggests that, even on an extremely team-friendly deal like a two-year, $2 million contract, Hamonic doesn’t project to provide surplus value.
This dynamic is a tricky one and re-signing Hamonic could pose a bit of a quandary for the Canucks. Even if the player is motivated to remain in Vancouver, Hamonic’s cache and his deployment when healthy would suggest that he should be paid at a level where he’s likely to be an inefficient bet.
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Hamonic chose to play in Vancouver this past season on a sweetheart, one-year deal. At that rate, it’s a no-brainer to return him.
The veteran defender is surely going to require a raise to re-sign with the club for next season, however, and while the Canucks played Hamonic heavily and the coaching staff praised his work at length, his outputs at 5-on-5 and on the penalty kill are at odds with that perception.
There’s a chance that with better injury luck, a more normal offseason to prepare, and more time to find chemistry with Hughes, that Hamonic will be better next season. Perhaps significantly.
In all probability though, it will take yet another team-friendly deal for the Canucks to come out ahead in re-upping Hamonic this offseason.
(Photo of Brandon Sutter: Rich Lam / Getty Images)
