In his two seasons as Edmonton Oilers coach, Dave Tippett has deployed eight rookies: Five defencemen (Ethan Bear, Caleb Jones, Joel Persson, William Lagesson, Evan Bouchard) and two forwards (Tyler Benson, Ryan McLeod). Stuart Skinner’s one NHL start in 2020-21 is the only playing time trusted to a rookie goaltender since Tippett arrived.
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The nature of the rollout for several Oilers prospects means their official rookie season and the year each emerges as an NHL regular are staggered. For instance, Bouchard is not eligible for the Calder Trophy next season but in reality this will be his first real NHL campaign.
For Oilers fans, Bouchard’s presence on the every night roster has been much anticipated and will be a major story in 2021-22. How many will join him? There are several possible options.
The locks
Evan Bouchard has been waiting for what seems like forever to play as an NHL regular. He played his first NHL game on Oct. 6, 2018, and played well. Partnered with veteran Kris Russell, he played 7:52 at five-on-five, the third pairing won the shot and possession battle and played the New Jersey Devils at 1-1 goals.
After that, Bouchard got lost in the shuffle under two management coaching teams, highly unusual for a top-10 pick. He will be 22 in October, with two additional years left on his entry-level deal and (likely) a clean shot at the No. 3 right side spot on Edmonton’s defence.
The numbers suggest he’s already there in terms of ability to play at this level, as reflected in the 2020-21 numbers by Edmonton’s defence (10-plus games):
Player | TOI-60 | Pts-60 | Corsi Pct | Goal Diff. | Exp. Goal Diff. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
20:40 | 1.19 | 51 | 56 | 51 | |
17:08 | 1.38 | 50 | 52 | 48 | |
16:41 | 0.64 | 46 | 47 | 48 | |
16:20 | 0.73 | 52 | 58 | 55 | |
15:55 | 0.86 | 44 | 50 | 43 | |
15:08 | 0.74 | 51 | 46 | 55 | |
13:31 | 1.27 | 52 | 38 | 49 | |
12:50 | 0.57 | 49 | 38 | 50 | |
12:45 | 0.5 | 41 | 50 | 39 | |
10:55 | 0.31 | 42 | 25 | 45 |
Bouchard showed well and it’s clear he could have played more, but the Oilers righty blueliners (Barrie, Larsson and Bear) were all healthy for most of the season. Bouchard scored well (this is five-on-five), had strong possession numbers and a handsome expected goals percentage. His actual goal differential was below par, but single events in a season can have great importance in a small sample but remain single events. Bouchard’s on-ice indicators are all positive.
I don’t recall a young Oilers defenceman with this much on his resume in front of his landing as an NHL regular. His chances of success are enormous.
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Ryan McLeod got opportunities to audition with the Oilers late in the season and then into the postseason, impressing with his speed and two-way play. There are some issues — five-on-five offence and driving into high traffic areas were specifically lacking — but he is clearly close to a plug-and-play option for the Oilers.
During the regular season in Edmonton, McLeod posted just one assist in 108 five-on-five minutes and no points in 37 playoff minutes in the same game state. This is not a calamity but McLeod won’t be able to build an NHL career without posting at least some offence.
His two AHL seasons offer us an idea about year over year improvement. This is even-strength offence and in per game ratios.
Year | GP | PTS | PTS-GAME |
|---|---|---|---|
2019-20 | 56 | 5-13-18 | 0.32 |
2020-21 | 28 | 12-13-25 | 0.89 |
McLeod’s second AHL season was night and day compared to his rookie year with the Bakersfield Condors. He was fast as lightning in puck retrieval at both ends of the ice and used his speed to great effect on exits and entries.
As time went on during his NHL audition, McLeod was getting to more pucks at both ends of the ice, and that (along with his entries) will result in more offence. One question that can’t be answered today: Will McLeod be a No. 3 or No. 4 centre with Edmonton?
Expect general manager Ken Holland to aim high in the offseason, allowing McLeod to ease into the NHL on the fourth line.
Prospects with a chance
The Oilers are in the throes of deciding who stays and who goes among the team’s unrestricted free agents, and that more than anything will drive the immediate futures for several prospects bubbling under.
Dmitri Samorukov‘s NHL debut is linked to Oscar Klefbom’s health and the options Holland will find to replace those minutes (if necessary). Samorukov’s KHL time was successful (I wrote about it for The Athletic earlier this week) and puts him in a position to be an early recall in 2021-22.
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Edmonton’s left side starters are likely to be Darnell Nurse, Klefbom or a free agent acquired to replace him, and then some combination of Caleb Jones, Kris Russell and William Lagesson.
That’s a lot of names and a lot of scenarios, but Samorukov has a chance to arrive at Oilers training camp in the fall with no worse than No. 6 on the depth chart. He may well be better than three of the names above him right now. It’s possible the Russian defender outplays all but Nurse in the preseason.
Philip Broberg may offer some competition but his uneven SHL season means time in Bakersfield is likely.
Tyler Benson has a clear shot at a roster spot and it’s tempting to place him in the “lock” category now. If we examine the 2020-21 left wingers who played 10-plus games with Edmonton, Benson should be able to find NHL employment this year:
Player | TOI | PTS-60 | CORSI | GOAL DIFF. | EXP GOAL DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
14:06 | 1.15 | 52 | 48 | 56 | |
12:17 | 1.22 | 48 | 46 | 46 | |
11:42 | 1.54 | 46 | 52 | 48 | |
10:04 | 1.44 | 48 | 48 | 46 | |
9:31 | 0.99 | 38 | 35 | 40 |
The only man certain to return is Devin Shore, whose role on the team isn’t similar to the one Benson will be applying for in 2021-22. If Benson makes it with Edmonton, he will be part of an outscoring depth line, with his chief competition for the role (Dylan Holloway) likely ticketed for the minors to start the season.
If Holland signs Nugent-Hopkins, and the team adds a second free agent (like Blake Coleman), Edmonton could run Benson or Holloway on a third line. There’s so much up in the air on left wing it’s impossible to know how things will look in the fall.
That’s why I have Benson shy of a sure thing, but he’s close based on what the team is reportedly shopping for and the kind of cap hits they’ll need in the bottom-six forwards.
Outside looking in
I wrote about five Condors prospects before the trade deadline, suggesting all of them had earned a recall from the organization. McLeod did get the recall and Benson looks poised to be a part of next year’s team.
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Cooper Marody doesn’t look like a fit, despite Edmonton’s dire need for an outscoring No. 3 centre. Marody spent much of the season playing right wing and may benefit from a second opinion from another NHL organization.
Theodor Lennstrom received a recall to Edmonton but didn’t play. He is an RFA, and with the emergence of Markus Niemelainen and the arrival of Samorukov and Broberg in time for next season, the window of opportunity might have closed.
Perhaps the most intriguing name was goaltender Skinner, who appears likely to be the team’s No. 3 goalie (starter in Bakersfield and first recall option) for the 2021-22 season.
What does it all mean?
The Oilers have a pipeline and it’s working. Condors coach Jay Woodcroft is dynamite at developing players and Tippett has shown a willingness to place the youngsters into the lineup in spots where each can succeed.
Fans balk at the idea due to the usage (or lack of) for Bouchard last season, but the odds favoured injury and he was handled as next man up. It’s hard to argue with the logic, even though it didn’t work as planned.
Depending on how this summer goes, it’s reasonable to expect Bouchard, McLeod and Benson on the opening night roster. Recalls for Holloway, Broberg and Skinner could happen during the season.
Samorukov could go either way.
These aren’t cup of coffee prospects waiting to play an NHL game and then sign in Europe. These are long-term solutions to problems and if it continues there will be fewer roster holes each summer.
The 20 years it took to get here felt exactly like 20 years. Edmonton is crawling from the wreckage of poor draft and development.
This is what it looks like.
(Photo of Mike Smith, Evan Bouchard: Andre Ringuette / NHLI via Getty Images)
