My last mailbag column was posted on May 27, when the Twins were riding a four-game winning streak. Today’s mailbag was also posted while the Twins are on a four-game winning streak.
In between those two winning streaks, the Twins went 6-12. That’s the kind of season it’s been.
Let’s answer some questions.
How much different would the Twins’ free agency track record look if they’d been able to sign their top targets? — Sean M.
I recently analyzed the Twins’ free-agent signings in the five offseasons under the Derek Falvey and Thad Levine front office, and came to the conclusion that they’ve gotten poor value except for the Nelson Cruz signing, which was great enough to make up for almost all the bad moves.
They’ve rarely landed their top targets (aside from Cruz). There’s no way to know for certain who specifically was atop their wish list in each offseason, but we know the Twins made what they perceived to be strong runs at prominent free agents such as Yu Darvish, Zack Wheeler and Marcus Semien. In each case, they were unsuccessful and pivoted to other options.
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When they missed out on Darvish prior to 2018, they filled out the rotation by trading for Jake Odorizzi and signing Michael Pineda and Lance Lynn. When they missed out on Wheeler prior to 2020, they signed Josh Donaldson to the largest free-agent contract in team history and traded for Kenta Maeda. When they missed out on Semien this past winter, they signed Andrelton Simmons.
It’s safe to assume landing their top target, while far from perfect, would have turned out better than what actually happened, but that’s true for most teams. Beyond that, free agency is about much more than simply identifying the best targets. If you don’t make competitive offers, or your competitive offers are seen as lesser because of various factors, that’s all part of the equation.
There are plenty of alternate realities in which the Twins have gotten fantastic value in free agency, but unfortunately in this reality they’ve mostly struggled.
What was the Twins’ biggest mistake this past offseason? — Doug R.
Making no trades for and spending just $18 million total on pitching, with $16 million of it going to Alexander Colomé, J.A. Happ and Matt Shoemaker.
That trio has combined for a 6.56 ERA in 140 innings, racking up -3.1 Wins Above Replacement and -4.1 Win Probability Added. Absolutely disastrous. And the Twins’ only other offseason pitching addition of any note was Hansel Robles for $2 million.
Will the Pohlads sell the team? Are third-generation Pohlads less greedy and willing to pay for pitching? — Brad B.
I realize “cheap Pohlads!” has been the rallying cry of frustrated Twins fans for decades, so it’s a hard habit to kick, but at this point it’s tough to conclude the Twins are being significantly held back by spending limits. This season’s payroll is almost exactly average and ranks 16th out of 30 teams. It was the same story in 2019 and 2020, when they ranked 18th and 17th.
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Could the Twins spend more? Of course. But that’s true of every MLB team, because every MLB team is owned by billionaires. Given the Twins’ revenues and market size compared to other MLB teams, why would one assume they’d spend higher than average? Plus, relative to the other four teams in the AL Central, the Twins’ spending is well above average.
Lack of payroll is not a valid excuse for the Twins’ performance this season, especially after how ineffectively they spent money this offseason.
How has Nick Gordon’s defense in center field looked? Does he seem viable there? — Jesse D.
He’s played all of 37 innings in center field after previously never stepping foot in the outfield, so drawing any meaningful conclusions is impossible. With that said, Gordon certainly hasn’t looked out of place yet, making several nice plays and no massive blunders. Sending down Gilberto Celestino and continuing to give Gordon playing time in center field is a sign the Twins agree.
Gordon had to scratch and claw his way to the majors, finally getting a call-up seven years after being drafted by the Twins. He lacks the glove to be a starting shortstop and the bat to be a starting second baseman, so anything Gordon can do to increase his versatility defensively will greatly improve his odds of carving out a niche in the majors as a utilityman.
Prior to this season, Gordon had played exclusively shortstop and second base in the minors. Becoming even a passable emergency center fielder should help a lot, as would getting some reps at third base and the outfield corners. Gordon is a hard worker and a quality person with good speed, so the more positions he can competently handle the more likely a team is to keep him around.
What’s the status and expected future for Brent Rooker? Feels like he’s kind of the odd man out. — Alec F.
This season has been a mixed bag for Rooker, a 2017 supplemental first-round pick who ranked as one of the Twins’ top-10 prospects as of this spring.
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Kyle Garlick beat him for the final Opening Day roster spot. Rooker was called up just a few days later as an injury fill-in, but he went 3 for 29 (.103) with 13 strikeouts and was sent back to the minors, where he’s been since late April. He was literally the only healthy position player on the 40-man roster not called up during the Twins’ most recent rash of injuries.
He’s shown plenty of power and patience at Triple A with 10 homers and 24 walks in 147 plate appearances, but Rooker has hit just .225 with a 32 percent strikeout rate. As a defensively challenged corner outfielder/first baseman, Rooker has a high bar he needs to reach offensively, and he looks less likely than ever to do so just a few months before his 27th birthday.
Assuming the Twins will be sellers this season, which players being traded would surprise us? — Jason S.
Aside from Alex Kirilloff and Trevor Larnach, and perhaps Ryan Jeffers, there isn’t a player on the Twins’ big-league roster whose inclusion in a trade would genuinely shock me. There are a handful of players — for instance, Luis Arraez, Jorge Polanco and Bailey Ober — whose departures would surprise me, but I’d expect the Twins to be very open for business if the right offers come in.
They’re a disappointing, sub-.500 team with one of the league’s oldest rosters and they have a bunch of key players headed for free agency after this season and next season. They also have just four players with guaranteed salaries for 2023 and two of them, 33-year-old Maeda and 35-year-old Donaldson, don’t seem like good bets to stick around through a rebuild.
Any chance the Twins will make trades earlier, as opposed to waiting for the deadline? — Dave W.
“Waiting for the deadline” is a common misconception.
It’s not that a team like the Twins won’t be willing to make a trade in mid-July, or maybe even right now, but rather that a looming deadline is often needed to create the leverage for non-contenders to extract better value from contenders. It’s the same reason the seller at an auction benefits from a ticking clock. If the Twins receive a great “buy it now” offer for a free agent to be, they’ll pounce.
I’ve long thought contending teams should be more aggressive pursuing trades in June, because adding a good player for 85 games instead of 55 games would be a huge difference and likely worth paying a premium. But it rarely happens. Separating the buyers from the sellers takes time, and even teams with World Series dreams seemingly need that ticking clock to really force the action.
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Should MLB move to a KBO-style tacky baseball for 2022? — David R.
I’ve seen this suggested and I think it makes the most sense if MLB is insistent on banning all foreign substances. Pitchers have been using rosin and sunscreen to get a firmer grip long before the current controversy over far more enhanced substances, so outlawing them will have an impact. Pitchers and hitters seem to agree that having some additional tackiness on the ball is beneficial.
And as luck would have it, MLB owns the company that makes their baseballs.
Why are reporters unwilling to say which pitchers are having their spin rates most affected by the crackdown on foreign substances? — Lynn B.
I’m personally not doing so for two reasons.
First, based on the spin rates before and after MLB sent out the initial warning about the looming crackdown, there’s evidence that at least half and as many as three-quarters of all major-league pitchers are affected. Given that, singling out individual pitchers seems misguided, except perhaps in extreme cases where the numbers are overwhelming. Small declines in spin rate aren’t newsworthy.
Second, all of the data is publicly available and easy to find. Go to any pitcher’s Baseball Savant page and you’ll see their spin rates broken down by year and by pitch, and a little further digging will uncover breakdowns by month and by game. Go to the Baseball Savant live game feed during any pitcher’s appearance and you can track their spin rates, literally pitch by pitch in real time.
MLB spent many years knowingly looking the other way as pitchers and teams became increasingly emboldened with their usage of foreign substances. MLB is cracking down on it now, so pitchers and teams are dramatically scaling back or eliminating their usage. I see little reason for witch hunts as that takes place. Every team, and the majority of pitchers, are likely affected. It’s systemic.
What would be the Twins’ worst and best win total for the end of the season and where would you set a current over/under for wins? — Edilberto P.
Best-case scenario is slightly above .500. Worst-case scenario is 100 losses.
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In terms of setting an over/under, FanGraphs has the Twins projected to win 78 games, which seems about right. To finish 78-84, the Twins would have to play at an 85-win pace for the rest of the season. Their preseason over/under was 89.5 wins, but they’ve played at a 69-win pace so far and might soon begin to shed veterans players.
What are your thoughts on the Shaun Anderson-for-LaMonte Wade, Jr. trade then and now? — Tony L.
I’ve always been a Wade believer, consistently touting him in my annual Twins top-40 prospects articles as an ideal backup outfielder and high-end role player. I disagreed with the Twins preferring Jake Cave to Wade. However, once that decision was made, looking to trade the 27-year-old Wade was reasonable and swapping him for a hard-throwing reliever made logical sense.
Unfortunately for the Twins, it’s gone wrong in all three ways. Cave hit .167 in 31 games and is now injured, with the Twins going through stretches in which they were desperate for usable outfielders. Anderson, the reliever acquired from the Giants for Wade, allowed 12 runs in 8 2/3 innings for the Twins, who just lost him on waivers to the Rangers for nothing.
Wade, meanwhile, has hit .278/.360/.494 in 25 games for the Giants, starting multiple games at all three outfield spots and first base.
When Jhoan Duran gets called up, do you think it will be as a starter or in the bullpen at first? — Paul J.
Sadly, the Twins’ never-ending injuries this season extend to the minors.
Duran, their top pitching prospect, was put on the Triple-A injured list Sunday with a right elbow strain. Duran struck out 14 of 25 batters he faced in his first two starts this season, lighting up the (slightly “hot”) radar guns in St. Paul at 103 mph. But he struggled in his next three starts, including failing to make it out of the first inning on June 15. And now he’s shut down.
Half of the Twins’ top 10 pitching prospects are now on the IL in the minors, with Duran (their No. 4 overall prospect) joining Matt Canterino (7), Blayne Enlow (17), Edwar Colina (18) and Lewis Thorpe (23) on the shelf.
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Enlow is likely out until late 2022 or 2023 after Tommy John surgery. Colina is likely out until 2022 after elbow debridement surgery. Canterino hasn’t pitched since May 28 due to an elbow inflammation. Thorpe hasn’t pitched since June 2 due to a shoulder strain.
If healthy, Duran was on track to reach the majors in the second half, perhaps initially as a reliever, the same way the Twins broke in Brusdar Graterol two years ago. Now those plans are on hold and the Twins’ long-awaited pitching pipeline has hit a significant snag.
Who will be the Twins’ starting shortstop next season? — Steve D.
Their plan was likely to have Royce Lewis take over at shortstop in 2022, if not before then, but a torn ACL suffered in February wrecked that. His recovery is going well, but Lewis is expected to miss the entire season and it’s a big stretch to think he could be the Opening Day shortstop next spring. He’s coming back from a major injury and has barely played since late 2019.
All of which means the Twins will likely be back in the market for a shortstop, just as they were last offseason. Re-signing Simmons is possible, although he’s hit and fielded worse than hoped and turns 32 in September. Polanco has filled in at shortstop semi-regularly, but the Twins would prefer not to reverse course on that position switch given his defensive limitations there.
The good news is that this offseason’s free-agent shortstop class is the deepest and most star-studded of all time. Semien, Simmons and Freddy Galvis will hit the open market again after signing one-year deals last offseason, and they’ll be joined by Corey Seager, Carlos Correa, Trevor Story, Javier Báez, Jose Iglesias and Brandon Crawford. Toss in trades, and there will be plenty of options.
What are your go-to foods at Target Field this season? — Alex R.
Some of Target Field’s non-generic food vendors haven’t returned yet, although that could change with the ballpark re-opening to full capacity for July.
My go-to has become Tony O’s Cuban sandwich, which is so delicious that I’m ashamed to admit it took me until this year to try it for the first time. It’s been available in the Delta SKY360 Club all season and they recently re-opened the usual stand in Section 112 as well.
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I’ll also recommend Pizza Luce and Red Cow, which are available at Minnie & Paul’s out in center field. You know they’re both very good because I’m lazy and that’s about as far from the press box as it gets, yet I’ve still made the trek a few times this season. My longtime favorite, Turkey To Go, hasn’t re-opened yet.
Would you rather give up eating Yangtze for a month or give a prepared five-minute speech complimenting and honoring Dan Hayes? — Eric M.
No one enjoys public speaking and a month is a really long time to go without Mandarin chicken.
(Photo of Nick Gordon: Jesse Johnson / USA Today)
