For the second weekend in a row, the Blue Jays are winners of a series against the Baltimore Orioles, taking three of four from the last-place O’s at Sahlen Field.
Two weekends in a row and it’s the same result — a series win — but each feels different. Last weekend, taking two of three from the Orioles snapped a five-game skid and felt like a significant boost to a club that needed a couple big wins. After this weekend’s series, however, the Blue Jays look like they are rolling. They went 5-1 last week and have now won seven of their last eight. Paired with the Boston Red Sox sweeping the New York Yankees over the weekend, the 40-36 Blue Jays are back up to third in the crowded American League East.
Advertisement
After a sort of uncharacteristically low-scoring series against the Marlins last week — Toronto scored five runs over two games, but won both — the Blue Jays offence outscored the Orioles 31-12 over four games. The starters were again steady and while the bullpen problem isn’t going to disappear altogether without reinforcements — as evidenced by Friday’s eighth-inning implosion — Toronto relievers have at least improved over this winning stretch, with a 2.89 ERA with six holds and four saves in five opportunities since June 19.
“If our bullpen regroups and does the job like they did today, we’re going to win games,” manager Charlie Montoyo said on Sunday after the bullpen pitched three scoreless innings behind Ross Stripling in the 5-2 win. “We’re going to hit, we’re playing great defence, our starters are doing a great job, so that’s the piece that we’re kind of missing, but today was a great example — they did a great job. If they can bounce back, we’re going to compete, we’re going to be good.”
Of course, the caveat is the Blue Jays have been playing below .500 teams in this span, including those seven games against the Orioles. But the Jays needed to make the most of this portion of the schedule, especially that stretch against the Red Sox, White Sox and Yankees. Next up are three games against the overachieving Seattle Mariners.
Even if the latest wins came against teams they should beat, the Blue Jays are riding a wave of momentum right now.
“Sometimes when a team’s going good, you definitely have that energy where you’re just showing up to the clubhouse expecting to win and each guy’s stepping up like they did today,” said Reese McGuire, who has hit .533 (16-for-30) with five doubles and a 1.263 OPS over his last 10 games.
The Blue Jays All-Star tiers
Major League Baseball announced the results of the first phase of fan voting for the All-Star Game next month and five Blue Jays players were named finalists to be starters: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Marcus Semien, Bo Bichette, Teoscar Hernández and Randal Grichuk. All of them will have a chance to be voted into the game in phase two, which begins Monday at noon and goes through until Thursday at 2 p.m. The starters will be unveiled on Thursday at 9 p.m., while the rest of the roster will be revealed on July 4.
Advertisement
While starters are selected by the fans, the reserves are chosen via a player ballot and selections from the Commissioner’s Office.
Gone are the days when the Blue Jays could expect just the one courtesy All-Star invite. Instead, they are in a good spot to have multiple representatives next month at Coors Field. How many? We’ll have to wait and see, but here are eight players who deserve recognition, divided into tiers from the shoo-ins to the long-shots.
Tier 1 — The All-Stars shoo-ins
1. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Making his case: Absolutely, no doubt about it, Guerrero is heading to his first All-Star game. In all likelihood, he will be there as a starter. The numbers make the case an easy one. Guerrero leads all position players in fWAR (4.5) and leads a bunch of offensive categories in the majors, including on-base percentage (.443), OPS (1.127), RBI (66) and home runs (26). He’s been the best hitter in baseball this season and, while he’s decided to not participate in the Home Run Derby, he will be there to share in the festivities of All-Star weekend.
Best path to make it: After the first round of fan voting, Guerrero is one of three AL finalists at first base, along with the Astros’ Yuli Gurriel and the White Sox’s José Abreu, but the votes are reset for the second phase, so Guerrero will have to go head-to-head with Gurriel and Abreu this round. But the 22-year-old Guerrero received 2,704,788 votes in the first round, more than any other player, a sign that he’s well placed to get voted in. If for some reason Blue Jays fans don’t come out in droves to vote him in as a starter, he’ll be selected as a reserve.
Verdict: See you in Colorado, Vladdy!
2. Marcus Semien
Making his case: Semien has been central to the Blue Jays’ success this year, both offensively and defensively. He’s put up a 134 wRC+, almost matching his offensive output from his near-MVP season in 2019 (138 wRC+). Semien’s strong first half was helped by a hot month of May, with a 1.130 OPS, and even though his numbers are more modest in June (.762 OPS), he owns a slight lead in fWAR (3.1) among second baseman, just ahead of the Astros’ José Altuve (3.0). Meanwhile, his 18 home runs lead all second basemen and are tied for ninth in MLB.
Advertisement
Best path to make it: Like Guerrero, Semien led all AL second basemen after the first round of voting. In the next phase, he’ll go up against Altuve and DJ LeMahieu. Semien received 1,810,230 votes to Altuve’s 1,298,554, so he would seem to be in good shape to head to the game via the fan vote, but if he’s not voted in as a starter, he should there as a reserve. This would be his first All-Star selection.
Verdict: One way or another, he should be there.
Tier 2 — Feels safe to reserve his spot
3. Bo Bichette
Making his case: With both Guerrero and Semien having such a strong first half, Bichette has somehwat flown under the radar, but he’s having himself a good season, too. He’s put up an 120 wRC+ and his 2.3 fWAR ranks sixth among all AL shortstops. One thing that stands out about Bichette is how hard he’s consistently hitting the ball this season. Before Sunday, his 121 hard-hit balls (measured at 95 mph or more) is tied for the lead in the majors. On a personal note, it would also be cool for Bichette to make his first All-Star team and play the game at Coors Field, a stadium he spent a lot of time at as a kid during his father Dante’s time as a coach with the Rockies.
Best path to make it: Bichette (986,228) finished second in voting in the first phase, behind the Red Sox’s Xander Bogaerts (1,570,467). He’ll need a massive push from Blue Jays fans to leapfrog Bogaerts. Carlos Correa’s statistics are better than Bichette’s, but there’s precedent for two shortstops to be selected as reserves, so with that in mind, it seems possible all three finalists will be in Colorado.
Verdict: Should be safe to book his (refundable) ticket to Denver.
Tier 3 — Good, but maybe not All-Star good
4. Teoscar Hernández
Making his case: When Hernández missed a few games earlier this month, his absence in the lineup was noticeable. Hernández hitting behind Guerrero has been key to the team’s explosive offence since pitchers have to throw him strikes. Hernández missed three weeks in April with COVID-19, but he’s been one of the team’s best hitters since then, hitting .315/.361/.525 with 10 of his 11 home runs coming in that span. All signs are that he’s building off his breakout 2020 campaign.
Best path to make it: Hernández was among the top nine vote-getters for AL outfielders in round one, finishing sixth with 809,287 votes. The team will likely carry six or seven outfielders, but even with two of the top vote-getters, Mike Trout and Byron Buxton, both injured and unlikely to play in the game, it may be hard for Hernández to get through as a reserve, barring a surge of fan votes. His 1.2 fWAR is tied for 14th among all AL outfielders and with the Blue Jays likely to have two or three representatives among position players already, the 29-year-old could get squeezed out given that every team has to have at least one player on the roster.
Advertisement
Verdict: Likely not, but it’ll depend on injuries and open roster spots.
5. Randal Grichuk
Making his case: Grichuk joins Hernández as one of the top nine outfield vote-getters, coming in at the ninth spot (637,273 votes). Grichuk put up above-average offensive numbers in April and May (126 wRC + in April and 117 wRC+ in May), while playing as an average defensive centre fielder in place of the injured George Springer. He’s been less productive in June but over the season, he’s been worth a slightly above-average 106 wRC+, while hitting .267/.297/.469. His 52 RBIs are the second most on the Blue Jays, while his 14 home runs are tied for third on the team.
Best path to make it: Blue Jays fans could stuff the ballot box, otherwise, his 0.6 fWAR ranks him 21st among all AL outfielders and it’s hard to see his path to being selected, outside of the fan vote.
Verdict: All-Star break = a vacation. A great consolation prize.
Tier 4 — What about a Blue Jays pitcher?
6. and 7. Hyun Jin Ryu and Robbie Ray
Making their case: Ray should get consideration for his command turnaround alone. The left-hander’s 31.0 percent strikeout rate ranks fifth among all AL pitchers while his 6.3 percent walk rate is tied for the ninth-best mark among starters. (Remember, he led the majors in walks last year.) One knock on Ray’s season has been he’s had trouble with the home run ball, allowing an AL-leading 18 homers. His ERA is 3.35, 11th in the AL. Ryu’s numbers haven’t been as exceptional as they were a year ago, but he still posted an ERA (3.41) that ranks 12th and continues to have leading command with a top-six walk rate (5.3 percent).
Best path to make it: Based on fWAR among AL starters, Ryu’s 1.1 is tied for 18th while Ray’s 0.8 is tied for 22nd. Injuries to some starters, like Shane Bieber and Tyler Glasnow, may push Ryu and Ray up the depth chart, but it seems fairly possible they fall short. The Athletic’s Jim Bowden had Ryu on his just-missed list.
Verdict: Not impossible for Ryu to get a courtesy invite, but Jays position players might steal the show.
Advertisement
Making his case: Romano has been the most important reliever in Toronto’s bullpen. His 1.26 ERA ranks third among qualified AL relievers and he hasn’t allowed an earned run since May 16. Opposing batters are hitting just .167/.261/.225 against him and he’s yet to allow a home run in 28 appearances. Though, his strikeout numbers (32.2 percent) aren’t as strong as some of the league’s other top closers, including the Red Sox’s Matt Barnes and the White Sox’s Liam Hendriks.
Best path to make it: Recent All-Star trends suggest closers have the best shot to make it, so Romano has that going for him. But with likely only a handful of slots for relievers, it may be tough for Romano to sneak in. His 1.0 fWAR is tied for sixth among AL relievers.
Verdict: Maybe not this year, but he’s on an All-Star trajectory.
(Photo of Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Marcus Semien and Teoscar Hernández: Wendell Cruz / USA Today)
