The Cubs’ combined no-hitter against the Dodgers on Thursday night enabled them to retain a share of first place in the NL Central for the 14th consecutive day. But fortunes can turn quickly in baseball, particularly for teams deciding whether to buy or sell at the July 30 trade deadline. Monday night’s 14-4 loss to the Brewers was the Cubs’ fourth straight, dropping them four games behind Milwaukee. And this saga is not over.
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After the combined no-hitter, Cubs players believed they were on the verge of surviving a difficult June schedule that included two trips to the West Coast. Losses to the Brewers the next two nights would leave them six games back, but their schedule eases significantly in July. Six of their first 10 games after the All-Star break are against the Diamondbacks, the worst team in baseball.
Then again, the Brewers’ pre-deadline schedule also includes a number of soft spots (seven games against the Pirates, two against the Royals) and the Cubs cannot dismiss the Reds, whom they lead by only two games and face seven times before the deadline. Bottom line: It’s futile trying to project all that might happen, particularly when the standings might not be the only factor in the Cubs’ thinking.
If the decision is to sell, how far would the Cubs want to go? How would their 2022 club look if they traded say, Kris Bryant, Craig Kimbrel and Joc Pederson and lost Javier Báez and/or Anthony Rizzo as free agents? What would a step back competitively mean to the team’s new Marquee television network, and to the investments the Ricketts ownership made in renovating Wrigley Field and developing the surrounding area, which already have suffered because of the COVID-19 pandemic? Wrigley might be baseball’s funhouse, but attendance will not be guaranteed if the team starts losing and some of its most beloved players depart.
Kimbrel alone represents a fascinating call, different from those involving Bryant, Báez and Rizzo, the Cubs’ other big-name potential free agents. The Cubs hold a $16 million option on Kimbrel for next season. The way he is pitching, management’s best move might be to keep him not only past the deadline, but also for 2022 — that is, if the goal is to return quickly to contention.
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Kimbrel, 33, appears back on a Hall of Fame track. He has a 0.59 ERA in 30 1/3 innings, and his 46.4 percent strikeout rate and 8.9 percent walk rate rank among the best of his career. As volatile as relievers are — and as volatile as Kimbrel was from the 2018 postseason through the first part of the shortened 2020 campaign — a one-year, $16 million deal for an elite closer hardly would be out of line.
Keep in mind, too, that the Cubs will need to pay Kimbrel a buyout if they decline his option. That buyout will increase from $1 million to $2 million if he finishes 53 games, a total he would reach at his current pace. The question, then, would come down to whether the Cubs are willing to pay him an additional $14 million or $15 million on top of the buyout. And the answer might hinge on how successful the Cubs are in re-signing their other potential free agents.
It’s all quite complicated. And it appears the drama will go right to the deadline.
Cardinals’ Wainwright: Retirement after 2022?
Pitcher wins have been rightly devalued as a statistic, but it’s still notable that right-hander Adam Wainwright is the only Cardinals starter to earn a “W” since May 26. Wainwright has excelled in June, producing a 2.45 ERA in five starts while the Cardinals have gone 8-17. For the season, he has a 3.59 ERA over 92 2/3 innings, even though his average fastball velocity of 87.9 mph is the ninth lowest among pitchers who have thrown at least 1,000 pitches.
Wainwright, who turns 40 on Aug. 30, does not take particular pride in excelling at a time when the emphasis teams place on velocity has never been higher. He points out that he has never been an especially hard thrower, as evidenced by his profile on brooksbaseball.net, which tracks velocity back to 2008 (Wainwright made his debut in ’05).
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“A lot of people have a misconception about the velocity I used to pitch at,” Wainwright said. “When I was in the bullpen (in 2005-06), I threw a little harder sometimes. But as a starter, I was still 89 to 94. I rarely would get over that. I was never sitting 95-96. A lot of people would be like, ‘You don’t have your 95-96 anymore.’ And I was like, ‘Yeah, because I threw those two pitches in the playoffs one time and I haven’t had ’em since.’
“I wasn’t blowing people away with fastballs. I still had to pitch. I still had to locate. I still had to spin the ball. I’ve always been able to spin a ball. That was always my thing, even as a kid. Someone was asking the other day, ‘How long have you had your curveball?’ I said, ‘I’ve had several different grips. But the shape of it is the shape it has been since I was 11 years old.’
“I throw it as hard as I can and it comes out 74. If I really rip one, it will be 77. I’ve never thrown a curveball 80 mph in my life. And I never will. I’ve thrown several fastballs 80 mph, but never curveballs. It’s something where I’m comfortable pitching at (that velocity). Because it’s what I’ve always had.”
So, how much longer can he keep going?
“If it was just about baseball, about competing, about me vs. the hitter, I would pitch until the hitter told me I was not good enough to do that anymore as long as I was still having fun,” Wainwright said. “But I have this beautiful family (Wainwright and his wife Jenny have four daughters and a son, ages 2 to 14). My family works better when I’m there. My household runs smoother when I’m there. My wife is less anxious when I’m there.
“I love my family. I love baseball. It’s a great problem to have. (Former teammate) Jeff Suppan always told me, ‘Play as long as you can.’ But nobody is going to scoff at you if you retire at 40. I’m getting near the end. If it’s not this year, it’s no more than next year. Just because of everything that goes on in our lives.”
Muncy a defensive whiz, too
Earlier in his career, the Dodgers’ Max Muncy bristled at being labeled a “bat-first guy,” someone whose team would need to find him a position where he would cause the least harm. So, after Muncy’s defensive metrics at first base declined last season, Dodgers manager Dave Roberts recalls him taking it personally.
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“He saw it, and didn’t run from it,” Roberts said.
Muncy’s willingness to confront the problem is evident in the improvement in his numbers this season — he ranks first in the majors in defensive runs saved at first base and is tied for sixth at second, all while ranking eighth in the majors with a .955 OPS. He said he did not change anything in his preparation, crediting his turnaround to an enhanced understanding of the game that stems in part from playing both positions on the right side this season — 398 2/3 innings at first, 140 2/3 at second.
“With the shifts these days, you learn a lot,” Muncy said. “One of the things that cost me at first in the past was giving up too much ground to the second baseman. It’s just understanding where the second baseman plays, where the first baseman plays. When you’re playing both those positions, you get a better read on certain plays. You understand where guys should be a little more. They are completely different, but they also play into each other.”
A looming Dodgers ‘problem’
The Dodgers soon might face one of their typical first-world problems — too many good players at a position of scarcity in the industry: catcher.
Will Smith is an offensive standout who has 33 homers and an .897 OPS in 156 career games, and under the current CBA he is not eligible for arbitration until 2023. Keibert Ruiz, who will be 23 in July, is three years younger than Smith, a switch-hitter with freaky contact skills who is tearing up Triple A. Then there is Austin Barnes, 31, a valued backup who has been with the club since 2015. Oh, and don’t forget Diego Cartaya, who is only 19, but at 6-foot-3 and 219 pounds might be the next Salvador Pérez.
Some Dodgers officials believe Ruiz ultimately might be even better than Smith, but the team must decide the best way to maximize the younger player’s value. Would it be in a job share with Smith, prompting a trade of Barnes? Or would it be through a trade of Ruiz for perhaps a top starting pitcher?
Another option, assuming the players and owners agree on a new CBA that includes a universal DH: Move Smith to third base, where he played 58 games in the minors, then make Justin Turner the primary DH and Ruiz and Barnes the primary catchers. That arrangement might last only one season, as Barnes is eligible for free agency after 2022. But with Turner’s defense at third in decline, it might be the best way for the Dodgers to get the most of what they have.
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Weathers’ value to Padres increasing
The Padres’ curious exile of left-hander Ryan Weathers to Triple A should come to an end shortly. Right-hander Dinelson Lamet is back on the injured list with forearm inflammation, and Weathers is the obvious choice to take his place Thursday or Friday.
Weathers, 21, was demoted on June 15 even though he had a 2.47 ERA in 47 1/3 innings and in his brief career had held the Dodgers scoreless for 10 2/3 innings, including his major-league debut in the 2020 Division Series. The Padres said they wanted him to continue developing as a starter rather than work sporadically in a hybrid role with the major-league staff. But Weathers likely will be restricted to 125 to 140 innings this season, and the 10 innings he has thrown at Triple A are 10 he could have given San Diego.
If the Padres are considering trading Weathers for an elite starter — a possibility that cannot be dismissed under the perpetually active A.J. Preller — the latest injury to Lamet and struggles of lefty Mackenzie Gore at Triple A likely will put those plans on hold.
Gore, ranked second among Keith Law’s Top 100 prospects (Weathers is No. 77), has a 5.85 ERA in six starts. Weathers, then, represents critical depth for the Padres, not to mention a long-term, cost-controllable option for a team operating with a club-record $174 million payroll.
Story to Oakland? Not so fast
Trevor Story to the A’s is one of those trade concepts that appears to make sense on the surface, but unravels once you dig deeper.
Story, earning $17.5 million this season, still will be owed nearly $6 million at the deadline. Barring a sudden burst of largesse from owner John Fisher, the A’s are unlikely to take on such a sum. Let’s not forget their offer last offseason to Marcus Semien, a free agent their baseball people wanted back — one year, $12.5 million, with $10 million deferred in 10 one-year installments of $1 million each.
Sure, the Rockies could include cash to secure better prospects, but they almost certainly will find a suitor willing to take on all of Story’s remaining salary, particularly now that he is getting hot offensively. The Athletics’ need at shortstop also is less acute than it was a month ago. Elvis Andrus had a .494 OPS through May, but he has rebounded to .695 in June (though that is still below league average).
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Like most teams, the A’s will look for bullpen help, and they also would benefit from the addition of a left-handed hitting outfielder/DH. Mitch Moreland, their left-handed DH, is getting worse by the month, following his .752 OPS in April with a .635 mark in May and .525 figure in June. Center fielder Ramón Laureano bats right, as do Mark Canha and Stephen Piscotty, both currently on the injured list.
Those wild M’s
How is it possible that the Mariners are three games above .500, a half-game better than the Yankees, when they rank 22nd in runs per game and 20th in ERA, adding up to a negative-43 run differential?
Luck might be part of it — the Mariners are a major-league best 18-7 in one-run games. But the team also has gone 20-12 overall since May 24 behind three starting pitchers — Chris Flexen, Logan Gilbert and Yusei Kikuchi — combining for a 2.45 ERA in 17 starts.
The offense, too, has been better in this stretch, averaging 4.53 runs compared to 3.74 during the team’s 21-26 start. The revival directly coincides with the return of first baseman Ty France from a 10-day absence because of left wrist inflammation. Shortstop J.P. Crawford also has played a significant role, batting .347 with a .925 OPS in June.
The Mariners, though, succeed in large part because of their defense (they rank 12th in defensive runs saved and lead the majors with 83 double plays) and their bullpen, which has received contributions from three non-roster invitees to spring training: JT Chargois, Paul Sewald and Drew Steckenrider.
Around the horn
• The Dodgers consider Gavin Lux’s plate discipline to be elite, but the infielder batted only .179 with a .463 OPS in April, prompting manager Dave Roberts to sit down with him in Milwaukee at the beginning of May.
As Lux recalls, Roberts told him, “We trust you. Don’t put any extra pressure on yourself. We’re going to keep running you out there, let you play.” Lux, who also struggled in the shortened 2020 season, said he felt a weight lift from his shoulders.
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Since May 2, Lux has been more of an offensive threat, batting .253 with a .749 OPS while also performing well at both second base and shortstop. He has occasional throwing issues when he fails to make proper use of his legs, but Dodgers coaches Dino Ebel and Clayton McCullough have worked with him at length to alleviate the problem.
• The Tigers, 26-26 since May 1, are finally starting to show progress. Casey Mize and Tarik Skrubal not only are fulfilling their potential, but also pitching with an edge. The rotation might actually become formidable if fellow rookie Matt Manning follows the same path (he gave up nine runs against the Indians on Monday night) and if Spencer Turnbull and Matthew Boyd return to form once they come off the injured list.
Other encouraging developments include the emergences of two athletic rookie outfielders: Akil Baddoo, who rebounded from a 5-for-50 slump from April 14 to May 6 and since has batted .330 with a .921 OPS; and Daz Cameron, who joined the team on June 10 and has batted .234 with a .748 OPS.
• Not only is the Pirates’ Adam Frazier the most deserving choice to start at second base for the National League in the All-Star Game, but another member of the beleaguered Buccos — center fielder Bryan Reynolds — also warrants a selection.
Reynolds ranks first among NL center fielders in fWAR and 12th overall in the league with a .925 OPS. Frazier, meanwhile, is second in the majors with 98 hits, and holds a 56-point advantage over Braves second baseman Ozzie Albies (.871-.815) in OPS.
• Check out these crazy numbers: Left-hander Reid Detmers, the No. 10 overall pick by the Angels in last year’s draft, has struck out 30 and walked only three over a 12-inning span in his last two starts at Double A.
COVID-19 restrictions prevent the Angels from bringing Detmers directly to the majors; only players at Triple A are following the same Tier 1 protocols the majors are using. To make the jump from Double A, a player would need to quarantine for an extended period.
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• And finally, as the Cubs-Brewers series continues in Milwaukee, here’s Cubs hitting coach Anthony Iapoce making a comparison Brewers fans will appreciate, talking about Patrick Wisdom: “He’s like Brett Favre playing third base. Cannon from all angles.”
(Photo of Kimbrel: John McCoy / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
