Lowetide: 10 free agents for the Oilers to target this offseason

Edmonton Oilers general manager Ken Holland has almost $18 million in cap space with 18 roster players already signed, meaning he has the ability to make the final five players top-quality additions.

If the organization buys out James Neal or Mikko Koskinen, that total will jump past $20 million for summer procurement.

In his first two offseasons with the team, Holland had very little spending money, and his free-agent shopping reflected it. The 2019 procurement pool included Europeans (Gaetan Haas, Joakim Nygard) and frugal bets on NHL men (Mike Smith, Josh Archibald, Riley Sheahan) from the bargain aisle.

The 2020 acquisition list was a little more substantial, with Tyson Barrie as the big signing. He was followed by economical additions Smith (again), Dominik Kahun, Kyle Turris, Tyler Ennis and Slater Koekkoek.

This year, Holland has a substantial list of targets, three of whom played with the team a year ago. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins has already been signed, and we may hear about Adam Larsson and Smith returning in the days to come.

This is a fantastic year for quality free agents. Here are the 10 names that a hard-target search reveals are the best available candidates for Edmonton in its current situation.

1. Dougie Hamilton, Carolina Hurricanes

If money is no object, Hamilton should be No. 1 on Holland’s list. However, his cap number will be mammoth, and chances are Holland will check down to a less expensive option as the bidding goes up for a fine player. It will be a mistake.

Hamilton’s offence is well known. He’s scored 10 or more goals and 39 or more points in each of the past seven NHL seasons. He has also posted better than 1.00 points per 60 at five-on-five in every season of his career, according to Natural Stat Trick. All of his possession numbers shine, well over 50 percent in Corsi, Fenwick, goal differential and expected goals five-on-five. Puck IQ has him shining against elite competition, both overall and relative to his impressive Carolina defensive teammates.

The downside on Hamilton? There isn’t any that I can find, beyond innuendo and wayward suggestions about time spent in museums.

If there’s one move Holland could make that would send fans the message that now is the time to win, signing Dougie Hamilton would be it. He’s the biggest gem in this year’s free-agent pool.

2. Linus Ullmark, Buffalo Sabres

Linus Ullmark led the woeful Sabres to a 9-6-3 record when he played for the team in 2020-21; the team went 6-28-4 without him. Should Ullmark sign with the Oilers, he’ll play in front of a better team than a year ago, but being comfortable in a shootout will come in handy in the wild west when Edmonton’s defence goes walkabout.

Ullmark’s save percentage at five-on-five in 2020-21 (.937) put him in the top five in the category and kept Buffalo in every game. He is 27, the cap hit shouldn’t cost the moon (he was at $2.6 million one year ago), and his progression as a goaltender has been consistent and quality over the past several years. Chris Driedger of the Florida Panthers is very close as an option, but Ullmark’s resume is longer and has a rare consistency for such a young and available goaltender.

3. Taylor Hall, Boston Bruins

I didn’t have him on this list as it was being compiled a week ago, but reports have other teams interested, and if Hall reaches free agency things could break wide open. Bruins general manager Don Sweeney likely wants to sign Hall (and other veteran UFAs) after the expansion draft, allowing the organization to protect the maximum number of players under contract at this time. That makes Boston vulnerable, and the Oilers would be wise to step in.

Hall struggled in Buffalo, but his arrival in Boston coincided with an uptick in production and a return to impact status. At five-on-five, he can push the river, he is able to transport the puck from his own zone into the opposition end and set up an offensive sequence all by himself. It’s a rare and important part of the game. There are risks: He will turn 30 in November and has missed time with injuries throughout his career.

Per 82 games during his NHL career, Hall scores 27.5 goals and 72 points. He’s familiar with Edmonton and could slide in with any of Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl or Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. If available, Hall should be the top option at left wing.

4. Blake Coleman, Tampa Bay Lightning

Coleman’s annual brilliance in the Stanley Cup playoffs is making him more famous by the minute and probably means he’ll cost too much in free agency. As an option for McDavid’s left wing, Coleman is perfect. His speed, two-way ability, aggressiveness everywhere and legitimate skill make him a going concern across all 200 feet. He’s 29, but with that speed, Coleman should be a productive player well into his 30s.

The contract is going to be a tough nut because Coleman hasn’t had a big payday. He’s coming off a three-year deal that paid him $1.8 million a year. The team that lands Coleman will probably strike early, while other teams are pursuing Hall and other left wingers in a large pool of talent at the position. Edmonton would be wise to consider such a plan. Despite being a complementary offensive player, Coleman could help the McDavid line in multiple ways while scoring enough to stay with the big line.

Adam Larsson (Darcy Finley / NHLI via Getty Images)

5. Adam Larsson, Edmonton Oilers

This deal should be done by now, with each passing day it adds a little more risk for the Oilers (similar to Hall and the Bruins). Larsson is the Oilers’ top shutdown defender and has been effective in the role when healthy and gifted with a talented partner. Last season, Puck IQ marked him playing over 300 minutes (over 30 percent of his overall minutes) and winning the possession battle (Dangerous Fenwick is smart Corsi) by a 53.7 percent total.

Holland’s postseason news conference reflected a wish to keep the group together, and Larsson is an important part of the lineup. He doesn’t bring much offence, so it’s easy to overlook him or criticize him for what he doesn’t accomplish on the ice. Late in games, up a goal with everything on the line, a veteran partner and Larsson are extremely likely to be on the ice holding down the fort. He’s worth the contract Edmonton will give him.

6. Brandon Saad, Colorado Avalanche

Saad is an intriguing choice. He has size, speed and two-way acumen. He isn’t a driver like Hall but a top-level complementary winger (similar to Ryan Nugent-Hopkins) with a pristine resume. Saad’s scoring rates are excellent, reflected by his five-on-five goals per 60 (1.49) and points per 60 (2.29) a year ago. The goal total was aided by a mammoth 20.6 shooting percentage in that game state in 2020-21, but he has been a consistent scorer over the past several years.

He just finished a six-year, $36 million contract, and Holland might be able to sign him for less this summer. There’s a plethora of wingers available on the free market, and Saad could get overlooked early in free agency. He’s a fine player.

7. Jake McCabe, Buffalo Sabres

McCabe’s presence on the free-agent list is obscured by an injury he suffered last season. He is expected to recover by fall, but the injury (major knee problem earlier this year, with damage to his ACL, MCL and meniscus) puts in doubt his effectiveness upon his return. I think it’s worth the risk based on age (he’ll be 28 in October) and consistent quality at the left defence position. Puck IQ has him playing big minutes against elite competition for the past several years and performing well in those minutes during the past two seasons.

The key to the Puck IQ numbers is that McCabe is comfortable playing big minutes against elite competition. He would be second pair (likely with Adam Larsson) and his puck-passing skills (he’s good) would be an important part of the duo’s skill set. This is a risky move, but the payoff once McCabe gets healthy would be worth the gamble on his early-season availability.

8. Tomas Tatar, Montreal Canadiens

There’s a perfect storm brewing with this player, and Holland’s history with Tatar could benefit Edmonton. He is 30, coming off a four-year deal signed with Holland in Detroit that paid him $5.3 million per season. He struggled in Year 1, but in the past three campaigns, his five-on-five points per 60 (2.66, 2.59, 2.03) have all been quality.

However, during the playoffs, Tatar played little (one assist in five games), and that decision by Montreal’s coaching staff could cost him millions. There was no mention of injury. This was a move of strategy, and Montreal didn’t go back to Tatar even when offence was badly needed late in the team’s miracle run.

Was he injured? Has he lost a step? Or was something else amiss? Either way, as of the regular season he was a significant part of the Canadiens offence, and the numbers show he can help a team. Holland should have as good a book on him as anyone, and Edmonton could benefit from this situation.

9. Zach Hyman, Toronto Maple Leafs

In the early days of free agency, Hyman was the top choice for McDavid’s winger based on his skill set and perceived price tag. His ability to play basically any role required of a forward (all three positions, all three game states) and dogged determination make him an attractive player for any team. In recent years, he’s shown an ability to be a successful complementary scorer when playing with elite talent, and that combination of skills would be attractive to the Oilers.

His scoring numbers and possession results at five-on-five are strong, and if Edmonton could sign him for a reasonable cap number, he would provide a major lift. His resume features two 20-goal seasons and a career high of 41 points, so the natural fit for his cap number would be under $5 million. Reports out of Toronto, via James Mirtle at The Athletic, suggest the industry expects Hyman might command a contract that delivers something close to $6 million annually. That’s too much by plenty for any winger in a complementary role.

10. Ryan Murray, New Jersey Devils

Murray was thought to be Edmonton’s pick at No. 1 for several hours on the morning of the 2012 draft, before the club chose Russian winger Nail Yakupov. Murray’s career has been plagued by injury, but the Devils made an astute trade in bringing him in. Murray’s possession numbers against elites include a 14-14 goal share and a DFF (smart Corsi) percentage of 45.2, a little shy of desirable, but he was playing 40 percent of his five-on-five minutes against the league’s best.

For Edmonton, Murray on the second pair (with Larsson) would mean less time against top competition. He should be able to provide solid performances over the next year or two until the young defenceman can push him down the depth chart. Murray is an underrated option for Edmonton.

A bonus 11th player is Derek Ryan, whom I wrote about for The Athletic in early July.

(Photo of Dougie Hamilton: Rick Osentoski / USA Today)