With patience comes progress.
Admittedly, for the North Carolina men’s basketball program, there wasn’t much of either earlier this spring. Roy Williams abruptly retired on April 1 after 18 years at the helm of the program, sending Tar Heel fans into a panic. When Williams’ longtime assistant, Hubert Davis, was promoted to head coach days later, he and his staff almost immediately had to deal with an exodus of frontcourt talent: Walker Kessler transferred to Auburn, Garrison Brooks left for Mississippi State, and Day’Ron Sharpe declared for the NBA Draft. Understandably, there were questions about how quickly a first-time head coach could rebuild that unit on the fly.
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But now, three months later, those questions have resolved themselves — and Davis and his staff deserve ample credit. UNC landed three high-impact transfers — Virginia’s Justin McKoy, Oklahoma’s Brady Manek, and as of last week, Marquette’s Dawson Garcia — immediately capable of contributing; it’s not a stretch to say at least one of the three will likely start in the team’s Nov. 9 season-opener against Loyola (Md.).
One question, though: How exactly do McKoy, Manek and now Garcia fit at North Carolina from an on-court perspective? Having bodies is one thing, but having players who fit UNC’s adjusted system under Davis is much more important. Given how different the aforementioned trio is from UNC’s bigs last season, it feels like an apt time for a roster reset. Through film study of the three transfers, plus conversations with people close to the program, here’s a look at how McKoy, Manek, and Garcia fit with the Tar Heels from a basketball sense:
Justin McKoy, junior
2020-21 stats (at Virginia): 3.5 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 11.3 mpg
What he excels at: McKoy never carved out a consistent role offensively with the Cavaliers, which was part of the reason he ultimately transferred. Playing alongside Sam Hauser, Jay Huff, Trey Murphy and Kihei Clark last season, McKoy was rarely an offensive focal point, instead creating his own contributions. Per Synergy, he was most efficient as a scorer converting offensive putbacks, averaging 1.3 points per possession (PPP) on such plays. But with only 10 of those possessions all year, it’s still a fairly small sample size.
The majority of McKoy’s limited scoring chances came via what Synergy classifies as “cuts,” with McKoy scoring 1.167 PPP on those plays. Studying the film, though, reveals only several of those “cuts” were when McKoy made actions toward the basket. A large majority, really, came when defenses collapsed on a driving ballhandler — usually Clark — leaving McKoy open and with a line to the basket. Basically, McKoy did a nice job reading space defensively, finding coverage gaps and positioning himself as an easy dump-off option for drivers. McKoy has soft hands and doesn’t hesitate collecting the ball before going up with it, meaning he’s capable when receiving a variety of passes from all angles.
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How he fits at UNC: UNC targeted McKoy on the high school recruiting trail, and when he became available this spring, Davis and his staff quickly moved to secure his services. At 6-foot-8 and 221 pounds, McKoy has the combination of size and mobility to play multiple roles. North Carolina doesn’t play traditional positions, and instead, their player roles can be grouped into three baskets: a point guard, two wings and two forwards. Under Williams, who harped on the secondary break, one forward usually occupied the rim-runner spot, with the other as a tailor. Despite his height, McKoy should have an opportunity to play both of those roles under Davis, considering his skills as an offensive rebounder and quick jumping ability. McKoy said when he transferred that he’d like to showcase his shooting a little more, which — if he can knock down jumpers — would fit well in the trailer spot. Davis also has noted that he would like to play with more spacing, and if he experiments with some four-out offense, McKoy’s versatility would make him an interesting fit as one of those forwards. He won’t be the leading offensive option anytime he’s on the floor, but there’s also more to him than he showed at Virginia.
Brady Manek, graduate
2020-21 stats (at Oklahoma): 10.8 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 25.1 mpg, 37.5% 3PT
What he excels at: Manek played both the four and five at Oklahoma, both because of his skill set and out of necessity. (The Sooners only had one other player over 6-foot-9, Kur Kuath, in the rotation last season.) But it’s clear what his best skill is, and why UNC was so intrigued by him: shooting. Manek averaged 1.189 PPP in spot-up situations last seasons, per Synergy, which rates in the 91st percentile nationally. The film backs it up, too: Manek thrived in pick-and-pop situations, as well as by sliding around the perimeter and awaiting kick-outs. He’s a decent screen-setter and rebounder, but his lack of efficiency in post-ups — just 0.724 PPP, the lowest of any major play type — suggests he’ll spend more time on the perimeter than inside offensively.
Something else to monitor with Manek is how he’s used defensively. His block rate of 3.3 percent was nationally notable, per KenPom, and he actually regressed in that area from the time he was a junior. If Manek, at 6-foot-9 and 231 pounds, can offer the Tar Heels some semblance of that rim protection, he’ll be an even more intriguing piece for Davis to utilize.
How he fits at UNC: Manek’s 3-point shooting last season would’ve rated second on UNC’s roster, behind just Kerwin Walton, so Tar Heel fans should be happy to hear that. In fact, Manek has never shot under 35 percent from 3 in a college season, and that shooting will be an instant boon for a Tar Heels team that ranked 262nd nationally in 3-point shooting last season, per KenPom. Before Garcia signed, it was easy to see “Prairie Bird” — yes, the best nickname in college hoops — starting in the frontcourt alongside Armando Bacot; that might still be the case, but Manek also makes sense as a proven scoring option off the bench. In terms of fit, Manek’s ability to play outside does probably fit better with Bacot, and McKoy and Garcia have complementary skill sets, too. But regardless of if he starts, expect Manek to be among North Carolina’s leading 3-point shooters. He has limited athleticism but is the ideal complementary offensive piece around Bacot, Caleb Love and Walton.
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Dawson Garcia, sophomore
2020-21 stats (at Marquette): 13 ppg, 6.6 rpg, 29.7 mpg, 35.6% 3PT
What he excels at: UNC fans got a firsthand look at Garcia last season, when Marquette beat the Tar Heels in Chapel Hill 83-70. In that contest, Garcia was arguably the best player on the floor, recording 24 points, 11 rebounds and two assists; he earned the highest offensive rating of any player on either team that night, per KenPom. What made Garcia so effective that day, though, and throughout the course of his freshman season? His combination of inside and outside offensive strengths. Dawson averaged over 1 PPP in four different types of actions — spot-ups, cuts, offensive rebounds and transition opportunities — per Synergy, and he also rated as good (.891 PPP, or the 62nd percentile) in post-ups. Realistically, he can be successful running the floor for outlet passes, taking guys off the drive, and popping outside and creating space with pump fakes. For a freshman, he has a fairly advanced offensive game.
But Garcia wasn’t just good for a first-year college player; he was good by major-conference standards. In conference play along, per KenPom, Garcia had the 13th-best offensive efficiency rating, the 10th-best true shooting percentage and the 19th-best free-throw percentage. He won’t have the same quantity of opportunities this season that he did in the Big East last year, just by virtue of having more talented teammates, but there are few things the 6-foot-11, 235-pounder can’t do at a productive level.
How he fits at UNC: UNC was hot on Garcia out of high school but effectively stopped recruiting him when Kessler committed in the fall of 2019. Basically, the timing didn’t work out, as one source phrased it. But when Garcia became available again on the transfer market, the Tar Heels made sure not to let him get away again. Really, Garcia can be the guy who unlocks a lot of what Davis wants to do in the frontcourt. He fits alongside Bacot as a shooter and capable driver, but he also works alongside someone like Manek because of his inside game. He’s definitely rawer inside, and his post moves and counters need some refinement — his handle backing guys down especially get a little loose — but that versatility makes him a key grab for UNC’s staff. It wouldn’t at all be a surprise to see Garcia starting alongside Bacot for the season opener, especially as he continues learning under the tutelage of the staff. Alongside Bacot, he should be UNC’s top interior option this season.
(Top photo of Dawson Garcia: Mitchell Layton / Getty Images)
