The Penguins’ picks are in. Now we wait for which available player the Kraken will select in the NHL expansion draft Wednesday.
True to his word, general manager Ron Hextall chose to protect seven forwards, three defensemen and a goalie. Let’s look at the players he opted to keep away from Kraken GM Ron Francis.
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Teddy Blueger: As it turned out, Blueger’s new contract was a sign the Penguins intended to keep him. We’d heard Hextall and hockey ops president Brian Burke thought of Jared McCann as a winger and not a center. Valuing Blueger over McCann, who was traded Saturday, seems to confirm the Penguins prioritized the center position as they determined which forwards to protect.
Jeff Carter: Hextall and Burke spent a month leaning on Carter to join the Penguins before the NHL trade deadline. They won him over. He paid them back by scoring a bunch of goals to help them win the North Division. Carter was damn good in the Penguins’ latest brief postseason appearance. Though he preferred to play the final season of his contract in Pittsburgh, Carter would have played in Seattle — and the Penguins became increasingly worried this past week that the Kraken would select him if he were exposed. It was a risk Hextall dared not take given Evgeni Malkin’s injury situation.
Sidney Crosby: He wasn’t going anywhere because the Penguins never asked Crosby to waive a full no-movement clause. Every move being considered this offseason is with intention of building a squad that could give Crosby another really good chance at the Stanley Cup. By protecting Blueger and Carter, the Penguins did their best to avoid forcing Crosby to overextend himself during Malkin’s anticipated lengthy absence next season.
Brian Dumoulin: There was never a question about two of the three defensemen the Penguins would protect. Dumoulin has spent the past half-decade working a top pairing with Kris Letang — when each player is healthy. Dumoulin is a standout defenseman in his own regard. But his ability to bring out the best in Letang works in Dumoulin’s favor no matter who sits in the GM chair. Dumoulin’s high-value cap cost ($4 million) made protecting him an easy call.
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Jake Guentzel: Hextall and Burke are said to feel Guentzel’s alarming previous two postseason performances are an exception to the Guentzel who ruled in the playoffs from 2016 to 2019. They might be shown to be correct, too. Guentzel’s shoulder injury from December 2019 is thought to have limited him in a 2020 series against the Canadiens, and more than a few folks in the organization believe Guentzel’s training last offseason took a hit because he was still recovering from shoulder surgery. The upcoming season is shaping up as a pivotal one for Guentzel’s future in Pittsburgh. Still, with Malkin’s status uncertain — yeah, that again — the Penguins were never going to risk allowing the Kraken to break up their top line of Guentzel, Crosby and Bryan Rust.
Tristan Jarry: A goalie had to be protected. The Penguins are said to have given considerable thought to making Casey DeSmith that goalie. They opted to instead keep Jarry. This could mean Hextall has intel that a team is willing to trade for Jarry. This likely doesn’t mean that Hextall is content to go into next season with Jarry-DeSmith as the Penguins’ goalie tandem. Sources have said upgrading in goal is the Penguins’ top priority this offseason. That pursuit will be challenging, but it’s not one that has been abandoned by the decision to protect Jarry.
Kasperi Kapanen: Kapanen impressed any internal skeptics with his response after drawing ire from coach Mike Sullivan for a second time this past season. Sullivan is said to have been impressed by Kapanen’s competitiveness late in the regular season and against the Islanders in the playoffs. Former GM Jim Rutherford gave up a lot to bring Kapanen back to Pittsburgh last summer, and those losses always worked in the favor of Kapanen’s being protected by the Penguins. But keeping Kapanen from the Kraken was mostly about Hextall and Sullivan seeing him as a necessary part of the plan for next season and beyond.
Kris Letang: Had a limited movement clause. Wasn’t asked to waive it. Wants to finish his career with the Penguins. Coming off arguably his finest regular season since his last one under the guidance of assistant coach Todd Reirden. Also, the Penguins already lost one iconic French-Canadian player (Marc-Andre Fleury) because of an expansion draft; their iconic French-Canadian co-owner (Mario Lemieux) was not going to allow history to repeat.
Evgeni Malkin: Could the Penguins have asked Malkin to waive his full no-movement clause and dare the Kraken to take on an injured player entering the final season of a contract that counts $9.5 million against a flat salary cap? Maybe. But the right-knee surgery from June was Malkin’s second since 2011, and uncertainty about when he can return might have caused a problem had the Penguins risked exposing him. Players with career-ending or career-threatening injuries were prohibited from being left unprotected. So, there’s all of that. And, well, there’s this: The Penguins don’t believe Malkin’s career is over or threatened; to the contrary, the plan is to sign him to a new contract before he becomes a free agent next summer.
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Mike Matheson: Probably the biggest surprise among players Hextall chose to protect. Matheson will count $4.875 million against the cap each of the next five seasons, and his actual salary increases from $3.5 million to $5 million for the upcoming season. Even if they really liked him as a second-pairing defenseman for the left side — and they do — the Penguins surely would have benefitted from the Kraken taking Matheson off their hands. So why protect him? Don’t overthink it. Malkin’s injury. McCann’s trade. There’s a need for a difference-maker on the top power-play unit, not to mention the hope that goals will come from somewhere other than the top two forward lines. Matheson can help in those areas.
Bryan Rust: Hextall wants to work out a new contract for Rust, the Penguins’ most consistent top-six forward the past two seasons. If that doesn’t happen, trading Rust before he becomes unrestricted next summer should not be ruled out. But there’s a difference between exhausting options to keep a good player for the longer term only to end up potentially making a hockey trade involving him than, say, losing that player for nothing to an expansion team. And Rust’s paltry cap cost when compared with his recent production ($3.5 million AAV/67 goals in his past 183 games) would have made his selection the Kraken’s easiest decision had the Penguins not protected him.
That’s it. That’s the protected list. So, which recent regulars are available to the Kraken? Have a look for yourself — and take deep breaths before rage-tweeting, please. And read on for answers to some burning questions that remain, courtesy of The Athletic’s Josh Yohe and Sean Gentille.
Player | Cap hit | 2020-21 stats |
|---|---|---|
$1 million | 9 goals, 6 assists | |
$1.25 million | 4 goals, 13 assists | |
$1.25 million | .912 SV%, 2.54 GAA | |
$725,000 | 2 goals, 1 assist | |
$700,000 | 2 goals, 8 assists | |
$750,000 | 0 goals, 6 assists | |
$4,025,175 | 2 goals, 7 assists | |
$1.15 million | 0 goals, 0 assists | |
$700,000 | 7 goals, 7 assists | |
$750,000 | 0 goals, 2 assists | |
$1.2 million | 5 goals, 5 assists | |
$3.5 million | 7 goals, 9 assists | |
$5.5 million | 9 goals, 9 assists | |
Pending UFA | ||
Pending RFA |
Which player protected by Penguins do you find most surprising?
Yohe: I can’t say the list was overly shocking, but I do find the Mike Matheson choice interesting. He did have a good season in Pittsburgh, and I believe him to be a better player than Marcus Pettersson. However, that’s still a highly questionable contract. I’m not surprised they protected Jeff Carter. In fact, I mentioned in my final 10 observations of the season after Game 6 on Long Island that this was going to happen. They love him. They were afraid Seattle would take him and make him captain for a year. They weren’t taking the chance. You can agree with it or not, but that’s why it happened.
Gentille: Carter is the obvious answer there, and maybe the correct one. He’s 37 with one year left on his deal and a whole lot of money in the bank, so it’d be easy to imagine he’d pass on the prospect of moving elsewhere, yet again. But with Jared McCann out of the picture and Evgeni Malkin on the shelf, losing Carter from the center depth chart — or even the possibility — was too much to handle. Can’t say I blame them, even though it opens up the prospect of losing Brandon Tanev for nothing, which wouldn’t thrill anyone. Meanwhile, protecting Matheson means a zero chance at getting out from under his contract, which is at least a bit of a surprise.
How does the Penguins’ list differ from what yours would have been?
Yohe: Oh, I would have protected Tanev. If the whole idea is to win now, then losing Tanev is a problem. A big one. I think it’s important to weigh risks as it pertains to expansion lists. Do you really think Carter is going to be selected, for instance? Maybe it was possible. Maybe it’s a risk worth taking, or maybe it’s not. Personally, I don’t think Seattle would have taken him, and I’d have protected Tanev. Yes, he has a big contract. But he’s also an outstanding bottom-six player, and if the Penguins lose Tanev and Jared McCann in the same week, it’s a problem. Maybe it’s not an insurmountable problem, but it sure isn’t ideal. And it makes the Penguins more active on the free-agent market, all of which probably leads to overpaying someone.
Gentille: I’d have kept McCann around and protected him. To create the spot, I’d have called the Kraken’s bluff on Carter. It’s really, really tough to imagine his going anywhere. I’d rather take my chances on Tanev and enjoyed the cheap, versatile production that McCann brings to the table.
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You’re Ron Francis. Congrats! Which Penguin becomes a Kraken?
Yohe: It all depends on the Kraken salary structure. If they want to go cheap, Zach Aston-Reese makes the most sense. Pettersson is a reasonably decent, young defenseman. Jason Zucker would be a terrific captain and is a legitimate top-six forward. Still, I’d probably take Tanev. Good defensively. Great penalty killer. Will score 15 goals. Fast. Draws a ton of penalties. Plays with an edge. Sure, four more years on his deal is a lot. But he’s in supreme condition. He’s the kind of guy who makes a team better.
Gentille: I think I’d go with ZAR, for one big reason: The other 30 unprotected lists are pretty serious, too. If the Kraken want expensive top-six wingers, there are better options than Zucker. If they want to save money for, say, the full nuclear option of taking Carey Price, guys like Aston-Reese are valuable assets. You can fill out the bottom of your roster with low-cost, solid players and have fun elsewhere.
You’re Ron Hextall. What’s your first attempted move after the expansion draft?
Yohe: Well, that depends on who is selected. But I maintain that the only way this offseason is successful for the Penguins — truly successful — is if they make a significant splash at the goaltending position. We can talk about bottom-six guys. We can talk about getting bigger. We can talk about the blue line. But if they enter the season with Tristan Jarry as their starting goalie, no one will take this team seriously as a Stanley Cup contender.
Gentille: Yep, Josh stole my answer. None of this matters if Jarry (or whoever) isn’t significantly better, and not just in the postseason. In any case, assuming Seattle doesn’t do the Penguins the (relative) favor of taking Zucker or Pettersson, I’d still spend some time trying to move one of them out and clear space. There should be more options once the uncertainty of the draft disappears. Getting one of the big-ticket guys off the books would help lead to actual change this offseason and make Hextall’s life easier down the line.
(Photo of Brandon Tanev: Rich Graessle / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)