There are a couple of key questions with either partial clarity or that still need to be answered after Adam Larsson’s departure from Edmonton.
How did this happen? And where do the Oilers go from here?
With due respect to fan favourite Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Larsson was the one pending free agent the Oilers could not afford to lose. His playing style was unique on the team, the role he held was understated yet critical and the potential replacements available don’t exactly leap off the page.
Advertisement
Yet, the Oilers did lose Larsson on Wednesday morning as the 28-year-old blueliner agreed to a four-year, $4 million average-annual-value deal with the Seattle Kraken.
A source with knowledge of the negotiations said the Oilers’ last four-year offer made this month was for more money than Seattle’s. They had previously offered $3.9 million per year in June but upped the ante. They were also willing to give Larsson a five-year contract; though the salary on that term is unclear, it’s believed to be for a lesser AAV.
An industry source close to Larsson said the Oilers’ last offer was “relatively close” to the Kraken’s, adding “starting fresh with a brand-new team in a place like Seattle appealed to him.”
The $4 million cap hit Larsson will now make with the Kraken still represents a nearly $170,000 pay cut on his previous deal, which he signed in New Jersey.
“I don’t know his reasons why he decided to go,” Oilers GM Ken Holland said. “I know it wasn’t about money. I’m disappointed he’s gone.”
Larsson leaving Edmonton represents a surprising but not shocking turn of events from earlier this month when it appeared as though solid progress was being made on a contract extension.
The Duncan Keith trade wasn’t the final nail in the coffin for Larsson’s departure, but it made signing him before the expansion draft more challenging. The Oilers had to protect the 38-year-old Keith because of a no-movement clause in the contract he brought with him from Chicago. They already had Darnell Nurse and Ethan Bear to block off in a 7-3-1 scheme, too.
An Oilers source said, however, they wouldn’t have had any protection issues had Larsson signed before last Saturday’s roster freeze. That would have required the Oilers to make a side deal with the Kraken to discourage them from selecting one of their veteran rearguards or go with an eight-skater format and possibly try to block off a forward.
Advertisement
By all accounts, it sounds as though Larsson was intrigued to see if the grass was greener elsewhere. He began to ponder life away from Alberta’s capital as recently as within the last couple of weeks.
The Oilers granted Larsson and his agent, J.P. Barry, the opportunity to test the market last Saturday — like what the Hurricanes and Maple Leafs have done with Dougie Hamilton and Zach Hyman, respectively — a source told The Athletic. They were hoping Larsson would see what else is out there and decide to come back to Edmonton.
How or why Larsson craved a change of scenery is uncertain.
This is a player who arrived in Edmonton in June 2016 in the infamous Taylor Hall trade, a dark cloud that lingered every day (and will undoubtedly continue to linger) — through no fault of his own.
It’s unclear if or how much Larsson factored off-ice factors as part of his decision to want a fresh start. What is clear is that the Oilers desperately wanted him back, regardless of how the negotiations played out.
Larsson had been a leader on the Oilers, the oldest letter-wearing player. He took on the thankless role of playing tough defensive minutes; he saw nearly a third of his ice time come against elite competition with just 31 percent offensive zone starts, per Natural Stat Trick and PuckIQ. Only Nurse saw more time on the penalty kill. And Larsson played in all 56 games this season after being hampered by leg and back injuries in 2019-20.
He handled his assignments reliably. That’s particularly notable considering he started games with five different partners — Caleb Jones, William Lagesson, Kris Russell, Dmitry Kulikov and Slater Koekkoek — because Oscar Klefbom was out of the season with a shoulder injury.
A player can decide where he wants to play once he hits free agency, providing there is mutual interest from the right team. Holland and Barry have been negotiating on and off since February, with talks intensifying in recent weeks.
Advertisement
Maybe there was a slight misstep somewhere. Maybe they should have offered more earlier. Maybe, though, there was only so much the Oilers could have done.
So, what’s next?
Well, there’s no other way to put this: Larsson’s departure leaves the Oilers with a massive hole on their blue line.
He was the player expected to be paired with Keith to provide the two-time Norris Trophy winner and future Hall of Famer with the consistent and reliable partner he lacked in recent years. Simply put, the Oilers must address this problem.
Tyson Barrie, the NHL’s scoring leader among defencemen in 2020-21, now re-enters the chat. He wouldn’t have been re-signed if Larsson returned but now is a possibility to be brought back, I’m told.
Of course, Barrie and Larsson are very different players — the former specializing in offence and the latter defence. For that reason, it appears the Oilers would prefer to replace Larsson with someone of similar skill sets.
Barrie has a readymade replacement on the roster in Evan Bouchard. He’s a younger, cheaper option who projects to be capable of running an NHL power play, which is also Barrie’s biggest strength. The Oilers also have another blueliner in Nurse who can run PP1.
Neither Barrie nor Bouchard is viewed as much of a penalty killer, which could put the coaching staff in a bit of a bind if there are only four defencemen trusted on the PK.
The other possible drawback to re-signing Barrie is what it could do to the pairings. The expectation is Nurse and Bear would resume their 2019-20 partnership and Keith would be slotted with Larsson. With Barrie in the fold, those pairings might have to be flipped to prevent him from skating with Keith.
Despite all the imperfections with retaining Barrie, it’s possible he could end up being the best option. The top right-shot pending free agent defencemen are Hamilton (expensive and not expected to sign in Edmonton), David Savard, Jason Demers, Travis Hamonic, Sami Vatanen and Jani Hakanpaa. The trade market doesn’t appear to be very robust.
Advertisement
“Give us a chance to do whatever we’ve got to do and then you can ask those questions once you see what’s finished,” Holland said about replacing Larsson.
In goal, it appears the Oilers are closing in on a two-year, $2 million AAV deal with veteran Mike Smith, according to multiple reports. A contract cannot be announced until Thursday, but I’m told the deal could be announced then or shortly thereafter. The Oilers, a source said, are willing to tack on an extra year for the 39-year-old goaltender to lower the annual cap hit. Smith finished seventh in Vezina Trophy voting in 2021.
The other half of a would-be tandem with Smith needs to be addressed, another question mark to accompany top-six forward, No. 3 centre — and now second-pairing right defence.
After signing Nugent-Hopkins to a max-term contract for a lower cap hit than his current deal, an offseason so filled with hope has at best been uninspiring.
The Oilers got Keith, who may or not be capable of fulfilling a second-pairing role, without making Chicago retain money on his $5.5 million cap hit when they appeared to have leverage. Bringing back Smith on a two-year agreement would mean he’s signed until he’s 41 rather than 40.
Larsson leaving could be the move the hurts the most so far, though, especially when the Oilers offered a comparable contract at the very least and possibly even more money and term. It leaves Keith without a partner for now.
Holland basically has a week to 10 days to recover from the blow. If he can’t, this once-promising offseason could result in a disastrous knockout.
(Photo: Andy Devlin / NHLI via Getty Images)
