As a result of their extreme makeover over the past few weeks, the Predators will enter free agency Wednesday with around $27.7 million in cap space, according to CapFriendly.
A good portion of that money will go toward re-signing several restricted free agents, a group headlined by starting goaltender Juuse Saros. The Predators distributed qualifying offers to seven RFAs, excluding defenseman Jeremy Davies, who signed a one-year, two-way contract Tuesday. RFA defenseman Ben Harpur agreed to a one-year, $800,000 deal.
| Player | Qualifying Offer | Arbitration Eligible |
|---|---|---|
$874,125 | Yes | |
$750,000 | Yes | |
$750,000 | Yes | |
$917,831 | Yes | |
$771,750 | Yes | |
$1.5 million | Yes | |
$874,125 | No |
Saros’ performance during the second half of last season has been well documented. Without him, the Predators would not have made the playoffs for the seventh consecutive year. He finished sixth and 11th in voting for the Vezina and Hart Trophies, respectively.
It is believed that Saros, 26, is seeking a long-term contract. The Predators, meanwhile, are thought to be looking for a shorter-term deal with a cap hit in the range of $3 to $4 million. Saros made $1.5 million per season over the past three years.
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Saros wields significant leverage. Franchise icon Pekka Rinne retired earlier this month, leaving the Predators without a backup plan (and a backup goaltender). The three other goaltenders under contract with the organization — Connor Ingram, 24, Devin Cooley, 24, and Tomas Vomacka, 22 — have zero NHL experience.
The threat of arbitration also hangs over the negotiations. Aug. 1 is the deadline for players to request hearings, which begin Aug. 11. If a neutral arbitrator were to award Saros a one-year contract, it would lead him into unrestricted free agency next summer, which is a risky proposition. (It should be noted that Saros is represented by Jarrett Bousquet, who went to arbitration on behalf of Shea Weber when the former Predators captain received a one-year, $7.5 million award in 2011.)
Here are five goaltenders who, like Saros, were RFAs coming off their second contracts when they agreed to longer-term extensions:
| Goaltender | Age At Signing | Contract Terms | Stats At Signing (GP/GAA/Sv%) |
|---|---|---|---|
25 | 6 years, $6,166,666 cap hit | 149/2.55/.917 | |
25 | 8 years, $6.4 million cap hit | 178/2.29/.923 | |
25 | 8 years, $9.5 million cap hit | 208/2.55/.919 | |
26 | 4 years, $6.25 million cap hit | 199/2.67/.914 | |
25 | 5 years, $5 million cap hit | 72/2.93/.911 | |
26 | ??? | 155/2.50/.920 |
Andrei Vasilevskiy, who won the Vezina Trophy a month before signing his megadeal with the Tampa Bay Lightning in July 2019, and Vancouver Canucks goaltender Thatcher Demko, the least experienced of the group, are the outliers. Statistically, Saros is on par with John Gibson and Connor Hellebuyck when they signed with the Anaheim Ducks and Winnipeg Jets, respectively, in summer 2018.
Based on those contracts, a cap hit between $5 and $6 million for Saros would not be outrageous.
The Predators are high on 2020 first-round draft pick Iaroslav Askarov, but they are not planning for the 19-year-old Russian to arrive in North America until 2023 at the earliest. Askarov, though, is unlikely to be ready for a full-time job in the NHL right away.
“We’re really excited (about) him,” Predators chief amateur scout Tom Nolan said last week. “He’s a top talent. He’s got great confidence in his game. He’s going to stay over there for the next two years and then he’ll hopefully (come) over here. We can’t wait for him to get over here and just keep getting better. He’s going to be a franchise player, we believe.”
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When accounting for Saros’ upcoming raise, as well as potential extensions for defenseman Mattias Ekholm and forward Filip Forsberg that would start in 2022-23, the Predators have less money to throw around in free agency than it appears. (The team is continuing to talk to UFA forwards Mikael Granlund and Erik Haula.)
It would be understandable if the Predators were apprehensive about making another long-term commitment at this time. The lengthy contracts given to Viktor Arvidsson, Matt Duchene, Ryan Ellis, Ryan Johansen and Kyle Turris in recent years have largely backfired.
In the case of Saros, however, the team will probably have to compromise.
(Photo: John Russell / NHLI via Getty Images)