‘Juuse’s our guy’: Predators give Juuse Saros a chance to address lingering concerns with big contract extension

When discussing what Juuse Saros’ next contract could look like, a mid-length deal with a cap hit around $5 million always seemed to make the most sense.

Saros, 26, would receive a well-deserved raise that paid him like a promising starting goaltender. The Predators, meanwhile, would not lock themselves into another long-term contract.

It was understandable then that the reaction from Predators fans and local reporters Monday morning to the news that Saros had agreed to a four-year, $20 million deal and avoided arbitration was mostly positive.

“Four years is a pretty good timeframe to see where (Saros) is and where his career goes as he takes over the No. 1 position for the Predators,” general manager David Poile told The Athletic on Monday afternoon. “His age puts him in a real good spot and us in a good spot for his next contract, in terms of having two good shots at two really good contracts here. I can only speak for us, but I think it felt approximately right for both sides.”

Of course, there was also skepticism about whether Saros has done enough as a No. 1 goaltender to justify a $3.5 million bump in annual pay from his previous contract, though his $5 million cap hit is not at all excessive. (The Predators still have around $12.7 million in space, according to CapFriendly.)

Let us unpack some common concerns:

Concern No. 1: Saros is not experienced enough as a starter!

A 20-year-old Saros debuted in the NHL in 2015 and soon made the full-time leap as Pekka Rinne’s backup.

Last season, Saros set career highs in consecutive starts (13 from April 11 to May 8) and overall starts (35). His previous longest streak of starts was five.

Now that Rinne is retired, the Predators will lean heavily on Saros, who could start upwards of 50 games next season. New backup David Rittich once started 48 games in a season, but he was brought in to be the clear No. 2.

“As a No. 1 goalie in an 82-game, normal season, you’re looking at your top guy to play between 55 and 60 games,” Poile said. “It’s just a fact that (Saros) has not played that many games in a season. Based on last year, specifically, when he basically ran the table in the second half of the season, I’m pretty confident that he can do that. But until you’ve been a No. 1, until you’ve played 60 games, until you’ve played multiple games in the playoffs, these are all things that he has to accomplish.”

It should help that Saros will be playing in a relatively low-pressure environment as he learns to manage a heavier workload; the “competitively rebuilding” Predators are not expected to be legitimate contenders next season.

Based on recent contracts, a salary of at least $5 million is the going rate for a starter in his mid-20s. The five-year, $25 million deal signed earlier this year by Vancouver Canucks goaltender Thatcher Demko, who has started 70 fewer games than Saros, was the closest match to the one Saros signed Monday, according to CapFriendly. New York Rangers goaltender Igor Shesterkin, who has even less NHL experience, was next.

Juuse Saros’ closest comparisons

Goaltender	Age At Signing	Career Starts At Signing	Contract Terms
Thatcher Demko (VAN)	25	59	5 years, $5 million AAV
Igor Shesterkin (NYR)	25	43	4 years, $5,666,667 AAV
Matt Murray (OTT)	26	193	4 years, $6.25 million AAV

Saros could have reasonably asked for more money than Demko, and it is possible he could have gotten it in arbitration. The completed deal presents little risk for both sides.

Concern No. 2: Saros has only had one good season!

Over his final 23 starts last season, Saros was outstanding. He won 16 games and posted a 1.90 goals-against average and .941 save percentage, which led to his receiving votes for the Vezina and Hart Trophies.

Saros, however, was nowhere near as good during the first several weeks of the season, which continues a trend. In his short career, Saros has developed a habit of starting slow. The same thing happened during the 2019-20 season when Saros began taking over the starting role from Rinne.

Saros does need to find more in-season consistency and help the Predators win a playoff series, which he has not done in two tries despite his best efforts against the Carolina Hurricanes in May, when he had a .921 save percentage in a six-game series loss. But his overall body of work is impressive and should not be discounted.

Among goaltenders with a minimum of 100 career games played, four in NHL history — Dominik Hasek, Ken Dryden, Tuukka Rask and Ben Bishop — have a higher save percentage than Saros’ .920 in 155 games.

Concern No. 3: What about Iaroslav Askarov?

In the first round of the 2020 NHL Draft, the Predators selected the highly touted Askarov with the No. 11 pick. The 19-year-old Russian is considered the league’s top goaltending prospect, according to The Athletic’s Scott Wheeler’s latest rankings.

It is hard to imagine Askarov being ready to carry the load before Saros’ contract expires. Four years should be an appropriate amount of time for Askarov to come to North America, learn the ropes under Saros’ tutelage and challenge for the starting job when the Predators are in the final stages of their rebuild.

“In theory, if we could sign (Askarov) next year, it seems like the best goalies take at least a couple years in the minors, so you’re now talking three years logically before that could even happen,” Poile said. “To me, it was all about Juuse (and) what the right term was for him and us and giving him enough runway to establish himself as a clear No.1 goalie in the league. … Juuse’s our guy right now for the next four years at least.”

(Photo: Andy Devlin / NHLI via Getty Images)