In the two seasons that Dave Tippett has coached the Edmonton Oilers, team defence has been a focus. One of his first answers at the media avail announcing his hiring pertained to the importance of the defensive game: “There’s going to be extra onus on playing responsibly in our own end,” he said.
After two seasons and a great deal of roster turnover, there are three things that are true: Goals against has been reduced, the penalty kill has taken on major importance (to the point of the roster sacrificing even-strength options) and the team has made the playoffs twice.
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This summer was supposed to be the year when general manager Ken Holland addressed goaltending, tweaked the defence to become less chaotic and improved the third and fourth lines in an effort to cover even-strength and penalty-kill roster pressures.
In two of those three priorities, management did not follow through. The goalies return for the third year in a row, and the defence appears more chaotic.
One area was addressed: The depth lines do appear more substantial and should be able to cover even-strength and penalty-killing duties.
When all was said and done, Adam Larsson, Ethan Bear and Caleb Jones are out. Duncan Keith and Cody Ceci are in. This will be a defining season for Tippett and his defence. Let’s have a look at his first two seasons and what may come.
Shots against
In Year 1 in Edmonton, Tippett’s team ran in place in shot suppression. The Oilers decreased the number of shots against per 60 minutes in Year 2, although the Canadian Division makes the 2020-21 evidence less reliable as a direct comparable to what has come in the past.
Year | Even Strength | Power Play | Penalty Kill | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|
2015-16 | 30.33 | 9.15 | 54.81 | 30.7 |
2016-17 | 28.88 | 6.6 | 55.18 | 29.1 |
2017-18 | 31.82 | 11.15 | 49.45 | 31.8 |
2018-19 | 31.15 | 9.35 | 53.19 | 31.4 |
2019-20 | 31.28 | 10.82 | 54.84 | 31.7 |
2020-21 | 30.27 | 9.44 | 55.67 | 30.6 |
The overall total is down by one shot per 60 overall. That’s impressive.
The Oilers will return to the Pacific Division in 2021-22, and anything at or close to 30 shots against per 60 is as good as it gets for the club in recent seasons.
It is encouraging to see the even-strength total reduced as Edmonton’s goal of winning the shot share (48.7 in 2020-21) remains elusive.
Goals against
The shot total gives us some guidance about what the goals against should look like, and here we see the benefit of Tippett’s unusual roster deployment:
Year | Even Strength | Power Play | Penalty Kill | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|
2015-16 | 2.72 | 0.86 | 6.58 | 2.91 |
2016-17 | 2.27 | 0.73 | 6.76 | 2.49 |
2017-18 | 2.84 | 0.82 | 8.39 | 3.16 |
2018-19 | 2.87 | 1.17 | 9.21 | 3.27 |
2019-20 | 2.88 | 1.8 | 5.15 | 3 |
2020-21 | 2.61 | 0.88 | 6.16 | 2.74 |
For two years running, the penalty kill has been splendid for the Oilers. That single-game state is giving the team an enormous advantage and doing much to drive results. The work at even strength, best represented by goal share, has an impact too, and thus the reason for Holland’s work over the summer.
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As a regular-season strategy, tooling the bottom-six forward group as a custom-made PK factory has worked, albeit due to a stunning group of talents on the top two lines.
Using last season’s main penalty killers, here’s an idea about the roster compromise made by the Oilers and the impact it had on both even strength and penalty killing:
Player | PK TOI | On-Ice GA-60 | EV TOI | EV Goal Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
2:10 | 6.4 | 11:16 | 51.9 | |
1:57 | 5.4 | 10:00 | 48.3 | |
1:54 | 7.9 | 14:38 | 49.3 | |
1:48 | 3.9 | 9:18 | 31.3 | |
1:11 | 5.3 | 9:40 | 41.4 |
Archibald and Khaira (now with the Chicago Blackhawks) performed well in both disciplines, while Nugent-Hopkins slipped on the PK. His goals against per 60 in the discipline was No. 70 of 104 forwards who were on the ice for 75 or more minutes last season.
Haas (now back in Switzerland’s highest league) and Shore performed well on the PK but were shy in even-strength goal differential.
Holland added several options over the summer who should be able to help improve the overall group. Here’s a possible new rotation, excluding Khaira, Haas and Shore.
Player | PK TOI | ON-ICE GA-60 | EV TOI | EV GOAL SHARE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
2:10 | 6.4 | 11:16 | 51.9 | |
1:58 | 9.2 | 15:51 | 54.3 | |
1:54 | 7.9 | 14:38 | 49.3 | |
1:45 | 5.5 | 9:51 | 60 | |
1:02 | 1.1 | 12:59 | 54.2 |
This is a stronger even-strength group and includes two men (Hyman and Nugent-Hopkins) who will also play top-six minutes. The rest (Foegele, Ryan, Archibald) could make up the third line at even strength, and that would give real structure to the roster.
What having five PK men on the top three lines does is open up the fourth line for all manner of uses: bringing along young players, slotting in tough forwards on nights when that need is anticipated, housing skill players who are waiting for an opportunity on skill lines, etc.
Holland’s summer did address this area, and it looks like he did it successfully.
A quick note: Running PK totals from different teams isn’t fair, as the style and quality of penalty killing ranges from team to team. Based on Tippett’s two seasons in Edmonton, I’m confident all of the newcomers will have success. A possible opening night roster of forwards that should outscore opponents:
- Zach Hyman-Connor McDavid-Jesse Puljujarvi
- Ryan Nugent-Hopkins-Leon Draisaitl-Kailer Yamamoto (unsigned)
- Warren Foegele-Derek Ryan-Josh Archibald
- Tyler Benson-Ryan McLeod-Zack Kassian
The defence
Oilers shot and goal suppression took a hit when Larsson signed with the Seattle Kraken. Larsson’s goals against per 60 at five-on-five, facing the toughest opposition often, was 1.99. That’s a strong number for the role he plays, and his replacement (Ceci) isn’t the same player type.
Holland and Tippett moved out Bear and Jones for what can be described as more reliable veterans, but there will be plays Keith and Ceci can’t get to that the younger men could handle with speed and quickness.
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Edmonton’s new defence should be more dependable when the puck has been won, and it might play less on defence due to effective outlet passes and a deeper forward group in support.
Considering all factors, it’s a good bet that the shots against per 60 will increase year over year.
The goalies
I predicted a year ago that Edmonton would make a move at the trade deadline, and it didn’t happen. I remain convinced Holland and Tippett will want to enter the third playoff spring in a row with something more substantial. Based on the information available, it’s likely we see multiple goaltenders over the long season and no one stands out enough to emerge as No. 1 or push the incumbents.
Player | Games | Goals Against Avg | Save Percentage |
|---|---|---|---|
39 | 2.74 | 0.909 | |
37 | 2.94 | 0.908 | |
9 | 3.28 | 0.897 | |
5 | 3.2 | 0.903 | |
 Totals | 82 | 3.07 | 0.907 |
I have Smith and Koskinen sharing the load, with Stalock and Skinner vying for the No. 3 job with auditions throughout the season. A deadline deal brings in the playoff starter, a very good chance Koskinen heads out at that time.
Note: I wouldn’t be surprised if Koskinen grabs the top job over Smith, but it won’t change the deadline urgency or the name of the player heading out of town. I’m fairly certain Koskinen has played his final playoff game in Edmonton.
The goal differential
I have the Oilers increasing offence at both ends of the ice, and that’s fair based on the roster changes over the summer. Retaining Tyson Barrie after losing Larsson to the Kraken, along with letting it ride in goal, suggests shots and goals against will rise for the Oilers.
The additions of Hyman, Foegele and Ryan suggests Edmonton’s top three lines will be able to compete for longer than any Oilers team in years. The forwards are approaching balance; it’s been a long time coming.
The totals: 289 goals for (covered here) and 252 goals against (per above), with a plus-37 goal differential, one more than 2016-17 (plus-36). Here are the numbers (in goals-per-game and goal differential by percentage) for the McDavid era:
Year | Goals per game | GA per game | Goal Percentage |
|---|---|---|---|
2015-16 | 2.43 | 2.95 | -43 |
2016-17 | 2.96 | 2.52 | 36 |
2017-18 | 2.79 | 3.2 | -33 |
2018-19 | 2.79 | 3.31 | -42 |
2019-20 | 3.14 | 3.02 | 8 |
2020-21 | 3.27 | 2.75 | 29 |
2021-22 (proj) | 3.52 | 3.07 | 37 |
The Oilers have real firepower now. The 2021-22 Edmonton team is championship quality offensively. Three lines who can outscore seemed a dream for many years, but the pieces are on the roster as the team gets ready for training camp.
The defence received a blow when Larsson left, and losing young talents Bear and Jones via trades impacts the depth chart, too. Staying the course in goal is a manageable situation if there’s a plan to bring in a goaltender of high quality before the trade deadline passes.
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The Oilers are not balanced, filled as they are with tremendous gifts and obvious flaws. Holland must find his Dwayne Roloson, his Curtis Joseph, in the months to come.
Is this team bound for glory? Not as currently populated. The 2021-22 Oilers will make the playoffs. How far they go depends on the experience added on defence and the quality of the goaltending.
(Photo: Jonathan Kozub / NHLI via Getty Images)
