How do Newcastle get Joe Willock firing again?

Asked whether his Newcastle United squad is “weaker” than last season’s, Steve Bruce, the head coach, claimed that it is “the same sort of strength”.

Bruce’s one justification for holding a view few fans share about the depth of his player pool? “Because we’ve made Joe Willock permanent.”

There is no doubt that, rather unfairly, Newcastle’s summer business, or lack thereof, heaped inordinate expectation on to Willock. As the only arrival — even if Willock was merely rejoining, having spent the second half of last season on loan at Newcastle — he was one of the few causes for fan optimism.

Inexplicably, the Newcastle hierarchy only served to exacerbate matters by releasing a baffling statement in which they not only undermined Bruce, but, perhaps inadvertently, piled further pressure on to Willock. By emphasising that the £20 million-plus outlay on the midfielder had prevented further incomings, Newcastle only further focused the attention on to their former loanee.

With Willock, the context surrounding his return is a crucial consideration when analysing his underwhelming output so far.

No supporter seriously expected him to come close to replicating the extraordinary goalscoring run he produced before closing out his loan — he may never again score seven goals in seven Premier League games, with the feat being achieved on just 13 occasions — but he has yet to find the back of the net during his second spell.

As the table below shows, not only has Willock’s goals per 90 dropped season on season from an impressive — and admittedly unsustainable — 0.7 to 0, but his expected goals (xG) excluding penalties per 90 has also decreased by 81 per cent 0.32 to 0.06. Also, the opportunities that Opta describe as “big chances” have dried up considerably; Willock averaged 0.6 per 90 last season but he is yet to be presented with a single one in 2021-22.

Worryingly, Willock is only joint-10th for xG per 90 among Newcastle players this season. Wilson (0.72) and Allan Saint-Maximin (0.15) are ahead of him, but so too are Ciaran Clark (0.2) and Federico Fernandez (0.2), both centre-backs. Last season, only Dwight Gayle (0.58) and Wilson (0.52) averaged a higher xG per 90 than Willock (0.39).

Before looking further at Willock’s underlying metrics, additional context is also required. Not only has he made just five league appearances so far this season, but Willock is also still building towards full match fitness. He returned to Tyneside having played just 48 pre-season minutes for Arsenal, before missing the opening match against West Ham United. Then, according to Bruce, Willock caught COVID-19, which further affected him physically.

As a result, his effectiveness during his first couple of appearances was visibly hampered by his lack of sharpness, but, against Leeds United and then Watford, his trademark athleticism returned, even if was a surprise presence at Vicarage Road having damaged his toe during training last week.

Regardless, the dramatic drop-off in Willock’s statistics cannot be explained solely by his fitness issues; he is also shooting from different areas and being presented with fewer chances, which are also of a lower quality.

As the table below shows, not only are his shots per 90 down (from 1.7 to 1.5), his efforts on target have also more than halved (from 0.9 to 0.4). Six Newcastle players average a higher number of shots on target than Willock, including Jacob Murphy and Sean Longstaff. In 2020-21, only Gayle averaged more than Willock’s 1.2 shots on target.

Significantly, the positions from which Willock is shooting, and the type of effort he is attempting, have also changed.

The graphic below displays all 22 of Willock’s non-penalty shots last season, showing where they originate from on the pitch and also the quality of the chance. The bigger the circle, the better the opportunity, with goals shown in red and non-scoring efforts in black. Just two, or nine per cent, of Willock’s attempts came from outside the box, with 90 per cent originating from inside. His xG per shot was 0.17 and led to him scoring eight times.

So far in 2021-22, however, the balance has flipped. As shown in the graphic below, of the seven non-penalty shots Willock has attempted this season, just three have been from inside the box, with four, more than half, coming from outside. It has seen his xG per shot decrease to just 0.04.

All eight of Willock’s goals came from inside the penalty area last season; three from inside the six-yard box and five more from within the 18-yard line.

One issue is that Willock is finding himself in the opposition box less frequently. Last season, he averaged 3.8 touches in the opposition penalty area per 90, which represented nine per cent of all of his touches (with his 2020-21 touch map below).

This season, he is averaging 3.1 per 90 in the opposition area, which represents just seven per cent of his touches. His 2021-22 touch map is below.

Not only does that partly explain why his efforts from inside the box have reduced from 1.6 per 90 to 0.6, and perhaps why he is taking shots from outside the area more frequently (0.8 per 90, up from 0.2), but it may also be contributing to a reduction in the number of headers Willock is attempting.

Last season, Willock managed six headed shots, scoring twice. One of those goals came against Sheffield United in May, when Jacob Murphy crossed from the right, shown below.

Willock’s clever movement saw him ghost in behind defenders, allowing him to leap highest and power in a header.

However, Willock is yet to attempt a headed shot this season, with his headed shots per 90 down from 0.3 to 0. This may be partly explained by Newcastle’s crosses per 90 decreasing from 12.3 to 11, suggesting the team has altered its attacking style, but Willock himself has not been running into those areas as often, either.

Notably, his characteristic late runs into the box have been seen more infrequently this season. He announced himself as a Newcastle player by scoring against Southampton on his debut in February, having told Saint-Maximin that, if the Frenchman beat his full-back (as shown below), Willock would be waiting in a goalscoring position.

And that is precisely what happened, with Willock blindsiding Southampton’s defence, timing his run perfectly to arrive unopposed and sidefoot into the net.

It is not immediately obvious why Willock has been less of a late-arriving presence in the opposition area, beyond the lack of match sharpness perhaps preventing him from advancing upfield as frequently, particularly given that the previous 5-3-2 formation suited the midfielder. It offered him a licence to attack, with and without the ball.

However, Willock, like Newcastle in general, did not appear as effective in that formation during the opening four matches. Interestingly, Willock has made 22 tackles, the most by a Premier League player, which suggests he is doing more defensive work, which may be hindering his attacking exploits.

The midfielder has, though, seemed rejuvenated since Bruce switched to a 4-3-3 after 30 minutes of the 1-1 draw against Leeds.

Five of Willock’s seven shots have come in the past two matches, including four at Watford, and Newcastle have started to get the ball to him higher up the field more frequently.

On Saturday, for example, Willock regularly positioned himself in and around the Watford back line, looking to break in behind. As shown below, in the 68th minute, Saint-Maximin spotted Willock and threaded a delicious through-ball.

Willock advanced into the box and, although he was forced wide by Watford defenders, he still managed to get a shot away, forcing a save from Ben Foster. Last season, during his sparkling streak, Willock would probably have scored.

So far in 2021-22, however, luck has not quite been on Willock’s side.

All goalscorers need an element of fortune and, in May, Willock saw a penalty saved by Manchester City’s Scott Carson, yet he still had time to slip over and then score the rebound. Another of his goals came from a mistake by Caglar Soyuncu and, while Willock’s anticipation, ability to steal possession and then finish calmly should not be downplayed, the Leicester City defender’s sloppiness also contributed.

Willock may have had a slow start to the campaign, but there have been a number of factors behind his failure to score in the opening five games.

His fitness is improving, which should allow him to produce a higher number of those trademark late runs into the area, but both Bruce and Newcastle can also make changes to extract more out of Willock. He needs to receive better service in the box, be it in the air or along the ground, more frequently, and then the goals will start flowing again.

(Top photo: Serena Taylor/Newcastle United via Getty Images)