Last-place teams are rarely short on problems that need fixing, and the Twins are certainly no exception. This offseason their front office will be tasked with improving numerous areas of weakness on the roster, making key decisions to keep or cut a dozen arbitration-eligible players due for raises and gauging the trade value of several veteran hitters previously considered building blocks.
But for any of that to really matter in 2022, and for the Twins’ talk of returning to contender status immediately after a dismal season to have any shot of being realistic, there are three crucial, glaring offseason needs that require addressing.
1. Front-line starting pitching
Technically, the first, second and third spots on this list could be devoted to the same thing, because the Twins have at least three clear openings in the rotation and zero veteran starters to fill them.
José Berríos and Kenta Maeda were supposed to sit atop the Twins’ rotation for 2022, but Berríos was traded in July with one season of team control remaining and Maeda will spend most or perhaps all of next season rehabbing from elbow surgery. Third starter Michael Pineda is a free agent and the Twins parted ways with fourth and fifth starters J.A. Happ and Matt Shoemaker in July.
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Three months ago, the thought of rebuilding an entire rotation essentially from scratch would have seemed impossible, but the late-season emergence of both Bailey Ober and Joe Ryan at least gives the Twins a pair of young starters to pencil in. It’s still a daunting task, and no one should count on Ober or Ryan eating 180 innings in 2022, but filling three spots is a whole lot easier than filling five.
“But additionally you’re going to have to supplement that with veteran pitching,” Twins president of baseball operations Derek Falvey said. “There’s no question about that. We’ll hit the ground running in the offseason and see where it takes us come October and November, and see where we go from there.”
Beginning an offseason in search of starting pitching is nothing new for Falvey, but in years past the Twins at least had Berríos in place as a sturdy foundation. This time is different. They have two promising young arms with a combined 119 innings of major-league experience and three gaping holes that will need to be filled via free agency or trades.
The good news is that the Twins’ payroll books are relatively clean for 2022 and they should have plenty of money to spend this offseason. The bad news is that their track record of signing free agent starters under Falvey is spotty, to say the least, and last offseason’s moves to add Happ and Shoemaker proved disastrous. That has to change, or the Twins have no hope of contending in 2022.
“We definitely didn’t hit on the guys we brought in this year to be a part of our staff,” Falvey said. “We’ve got to go take a deep look at everything in terms of how we acquire players and what those players are. It’s an area we are going to spend a lot of time focusing on and trying to be creative and think about ways, via free agency or trade, we can impact there.”
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This free-agent starter class is a strong one, with both quality and depth led by Max Scherzer, Kevin Gausman, Robbie Ray, Clayton Kershaw, Carlos Rodón, Marcus Stroman, Noah Syndergaard, Justin Verlander, Zack Greinke, Eduardo Rodríguez, Corey Kluber, Danny Duffy and Jon Gray. Even the next tier — a group that includes Pineda — features many appealing mid-rotation options.
Trades are also a realistic path to acquiring front-line rotation help because the Twins have a robust farm system they could dip into and enough surplus lineup depth to deal several veteran big-league hitters. They have the resources to add impact starting pitching, but it’ll take a more aggressive approach than they’ve shown in the past and a willingness to commit big money over multiple years.
2. Starting shortstop
This time last year, the Twins’ plan was to bring in a veteran starting shortstop to hold down the position for 2021 before turning things over to Royce Lewis for 2022 and beyond. Unfortunately, the plan failed on both fronts. Andrelton Simmons was a disappointment, canceling out very good defense with some of the worst hitting in Twins history, and Lewis tore his ACL in February.
Now they find themselves in essentially the same situation a year later, needing to bring in a veteran shortstop to serve as the bridge to Lewis, except this time there are natural questions about Lewis’ own future at the position following a major injury and more than two years without any game action. In a best-case scenario, Lewis might be a shortstop option for the Twins around midseason.
“We’re definitely open to that same conversation again, for the same reason we were a year ago,” Falvey said.
So what should they do in the meantime? Based on how obviously hesitant the Twins were to play Nick Gordon at shortstop even in a lost season, the former No. 5 overall pick doesn’t appear to be a realistic starting option, even as a one-season placeholder. That leaves the trade market, plus two potential paths via free agency.
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They could sign another veteran placeholder to a one-year deal if they believe Lewis is still the shortstop of the future, keeping the position warm until he’s ready in the second half or perhaps in 2023. Re-signing Simmons to a cheaper one-year deal could be an option, along with fellow glove-first free agents such as José Iglesias and Freddy Galvis.
If instead the Twins now have doubts about Lewis’ ability to play shortstop, or simply believe he’s better suited for another position long term, they could dive head-first into what looks like the greatest free-agent shortstop class of all time in search of a star shortstop to build around. Big names available include Corey Seager, Carlos Correa, Javier Báez, Trevor Story and Marcus Semien.
“I would say right now that anything is on the table,” Falvey said. “We have to put everything on the table, with where our team is and what it looks like. We have to be able to (examine) free-agent considerations, trades or even internal guys who move around if we feel that’s the best place for them to go.”
There’s never really a good time to need a starting shortstop. It’s a very difficult position to fill and often requires paying a premium. However, if you have to be in the market for a starting shortstop, this is the offseason to be shopping. Last offseason there were just four starting-caliber shortstops available in free agency and even that was more than most years. This offseason there are eight or nine.
3. Right-handed relief
Last offseason the Twins lost half of their bullpen as Trevor May, Sergio Romo and Tyler Clippard left as free agents and they surprisingly non-tendered Matt Wisler rather than retain him with a modest raise via arbitration. That quartet accounted for 51 percent of the Twins’ relief innings thrown by right-handers in 2020, posting a 3.11 ERA with 11.5 strikeouts per nine innings.
Making no real efforts to re-sign any of them, the Twins attempted to restock their right-handed, late-inning relief mix with free agents Alexander Colomé and Hansel Robles, plus a new batch of Wisler-like scrap-heap finds. It failed miserably. Colomé had the worst April of any reliever in Twins history, Robles fell apart a couple months later and the scrap-heap options underwhelmed.
Combined in 2019 and 2020, the Twins’ bullpen ranked fifth in ERA, third in strikeout rate and third in Win Probability Added among AL teams. This past season, Twins relievers were 12th in ERA, 10th in strikeout rate and seventh in WPA. And they were even worse in the first half, when the season wasn’t yet a totally lost cause, ranking 13th in ERA and WPA before the All-Star break.
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All of which is why the Twins are once again in the market for bullpen help.
Similar to the rotation, the bullpen cupboard isn’t totally bare thanks to strong second halves from Jorge Alcala and Caleb Thielbar that suggest they could fill 2022 setup roles. Unfortunately the Twins’ best reliever, Taylor Rogers, missed the final two months with a finger injury that puts his 2022 status in question, especially with a raise to around $7 million looming via arbitration.
If the Twins are confident enough in Rogers’ recovery to keep him at that price, they’d actually be well-stocked in left-handers with the trio of Rogers, Thielbar and promising prospect Jovani Moran. But for a second straight offseason they desperately need right-handed relievers, with only Alcala and Tyler Duffey (if he’s kept for around $3.5 million via arbitration) as in-house setup options.
The good news is there are always plenty of good, veteran relievers available in free agency. The bad news is that was true last offseason as well and the Twins ended up with only Colomé and Robles to show for it.
Prominent right-handed relievers in this free-agent class include Kenley Jansen, Raisel Iglesias, Mark Melancon, Kendall Graveman, David Robertson, Daniel Hudson, Collin McHugh, Corey Knebel, Joe Kelly, Ryan Tepera, Bryan Shaw, Joakim Soria, Brad Boxberger and Ian Kennedy (plus Colomé, Robles, Romo and Clippard, of course).
(Photo: David Berding / Getty Images)
