ORLANDO, Fla. — The Orlando Magic’s first five regular-season games should remind us about a cardinal rule of evaluating NBA prospects.
Don’t draw firm conclusions about a rookie’s long-term value based solely on his summer-league and preseason performances. Noting what he does well and what he does poorly? That’s fine. Begin to develop hypotheses about a player’s ceiling and floor? Sure, that’s acceptable. But don’t cling to first impressions forever.
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A case in point: Franz Wagner.
During summer league and the preseason, Wagner consistently displayed his feel for the game with his cutting and a few smart passes, but he rarely hit a shot, played passively and resembled a middling role player.
Compared with those lackluster showings, he has been a revelation during Orlando’s five games so far. His counting stats and percentages — 13.6 points, 3.6 rebounds and 1.8 assists per game, along with 52 percent shooting from the field and 42 percent shooting from deep — are dramatic improvements, but they tell only a fraction of the story.
Wagner, the eighth pick in the 2021 NBA Draft, has been the Magic’s best or, at worst, second-best all-around player so far, an intense, energetic combination of defensive versatility, advanced offensive decision-making and competitiveness.
“The one thing that I keep saying (stands out) is his basketball IQ, his ability to just read games, read the plays, make the right decision,” coach Jamahl Mosley said. “He’s in the right spot defensively. He makes the guys around him better.”
Wagner displayed all of those qualities during Orlando’s 120-111 loss Wednesday night to Charlotte, but a 42-second stretch in particular during the first quarter hinted at his potential.
A pindown by Cole Anthony forced the Hornets to switch LaMelo Ball onto Wagner, and Wagner received the ball in space in the left corner. Wagner backed down Ball and scored on an easy finger roll.
On Charlotte’s ensuing possession, Wagner picked up Ball outside the 3-point arc. Typically, it would seem like a mismatch if a 6-foot-10 rookie forward had to defend a playmaking point guard who is the reigning NBA Rookie of the Year. Ball pump-faked, but Wagner’s feet did not leave the Amway Center parquet. As Ball drove into the lane, Wagner remained in front of him step by step until Ball committed an offensive foul.
About 20 seconds later, the Magic picked up a loose ball in their offensive end, and Wagner, who had drifted back to prevent a potential Hornets transition opportunity, suddenly sped forward, slowing down just outside the arc, where he caught a pass from Terrence Ross and sank a 3. Give Ross credit for finding the open man, but give Wagner credit for finding his spot and seamlessly sinking a 3 on the move.
Also note Wagner’s celebration after he hit the shot, pumping his head and shouting something to himself. He may look meek and undersized compared with veteran NBA players, but he’s got a fire and a competitiveness to him.
The 3 was also impressive because it demonstrated growth. Mosley, the assistant coaches and Magic players have asked Wagner to be more forgiving of his own misses and more willing to hoist 3s if he has open looks.
“I think I’m going to continue to challenge him to step out of his comfort zone and be a little bit more assertive and aggressive when it comes to offense, not being afraid to take certain shots,” Mosley said.
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Wagner did exactly that on that 3, and it was especially gratifying for the coaches to see because Wagner, like many young players, at times gets too hard on himself when he misses shots. Mosley has advised Wagner to think about the next play rather than obsess about the last one.
“I’m trying to do that,” Wagner said. “Stuff’s going to go wrong sometimes, but just trying it every time — I think that’s what’s going to move the needle long term.”
Magic officials believe Wagner can become, at the minimum, an ultimate glue guy, someone along the lines of Mikal Bridges, the Suns’ 3-and-D standout. But while Bridges is only 6 foot 6, Wagner has the potential to be able to guard the gamut of opponents. He can already guard point guards in a pinch all the way up through power forwards. In time, with extra strength, he may be able to guard some centers.
Wagner may eventually hit the dreaded “rookie wall,” the point where the avalanche of games saps youngsters’ energy and enthusiasm. But for now, he takes no possessions off. If you attend a game, watch him sprint down the floor when the Magic begin an offensive possession and watch how alert he is on the defensive end of the floor.
“Franz is a phenomenal player,” Magic big man Wendell Carter Jr. said. “He kind of plays with a chip on his shoulder just to prove to everybody else that he belongs in this league.”
Five games in, Wagner’s doing exactly that.
Trust issues
Magic fans are growing increasingly frustrated by the team’s near-total absence of transparency on the return-to-play timetables of Markelle Fultz, Jonathan Isaac and Chuma Okeke. Fultz continues to recover from the ACL tear he suffered in early January. Isaac is rehabbing from the ACL and meniscus tears he suffered in the bubble in August 2020. And Okeke missed the entire preseason and all five games so far with a bone bruise in his hip.
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Fielding a recent question about Okeke’s status, Mosley answered: “There is no real timetable for him. We’re going to see how he responds to contact and to his rehab.”
That answer provides no clarity on the situation. It was the ultimate non-answer answer. But fans should not blame Mosley, a first-year head coach who is merely following the front office’s policy for situations like this.
Simply put, that policy is to avoid stating timetables for injured players.
One of the team’s worries is that if a timetable is provided, a player will feel undue pressure to meet the previously stated return date, even if he isn’t fully ready to play. Returning too soon from an injury puts a player at risk for another injury.
Another concern can best be described as a public-relations concern. If a player does not meet the timeline, there will be a perception that he has either suffered a setback or that he has not been cared for correctly. No team enjoys bad press.
And finally, there is a trust factor between a team and the players as well as the players’ agents. If a team official offers a timetable, it could be perceived as a breach of the player’s trust. The timetable could be construed as divulging medical information.
All of these considerations make perfect sense in theory, but the Magic are operating in the real world — a modern age in which diehard fans regularly communicate with each other with ease. By not offering timetables or providing specificity, the Magic are inadvertently creating an information vacuum in which fans have few, if any, facts upon which to base conclusions.
Isaac, for instance, has not played for almost 15 months. True, Magic officials have said he is making progress. But after so long, it is not unreasonable for fans to wonder whether Isaac has encountered setbacks or sustained injuries that were more serious than initially described. It’s also not unreasonable to conclude that one of the reasons the Magic are proceeding slowly is to tank their 2021-22 season.
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More likely is that the Magic, knowing Isaac has missed more games than he’s played, are being ultra-conservative in an effort to ensure he remains healthy after he returns.
Magic fans are perplexed — perhaps less by Fultz’s, Isaac’s and Okeke’s continued absences and more by the relative silence from team officials — and that is a dangerous situation. If team officials are not careful, their policy, though crafted to help protect the players, runs the risk of fueling mistrust among fans.
The Magic face a difficult season. The team will be fortunate if it wins 25 games. Losing takes a toll on everyone, including the fans.
In those circumstances especially, a feeling of mistrust from the outside looking in is a problem the team should attempt to avoid.
(Top photo of Franz Wagner: Fernando Medina / NBAE via Getty Images)
