Hollinger: Nikola Jokic is that dude, Miles Bridges is getting paid (somewhere) and 4 other early trends to believe

Is this real or a fluke? Am I seeing a trend or just statistical noise?

That’s the most confounding part of evaluating the first month of the season; our eyes and ears are most receptive to anything that appears “different” or changed from the status quo, but sometimes, those same receptors send us wandering off on irrelevant tangents. And again, this early in the year, it only takes a couple of bad games for a seeming “trend” to shrivel to nothingness.

Nonetheless, I’ve seen and watched enough of the league’s 30 teams over this first month to where, hopefully, I can discern which changes are sturdy enough to survive the final 80 percent of the season.

A few, in particular, have caught my attention. Despite the fact we’re still in small-sample theater, let’s talk about six things from the start of the season that you can already believe in.

Nikola Jokic is that dude

It’s all well and good that we have some other things to entertain us, like Steph Curry doing Steph things with a real team around him in Golden State and the DeMar DeRozan-led Bulls trucking teams in the East.

Just don’t lose sight of the big picture, folks: Jokic is still the most effective regular-season player in basketball. Voters seemingly reluctantly gave him the MVP last year and again appear to be scanning the universe for alternatives, and it may be harder to convince them after seeing Curry go amazeballs on Tuesday in the league’s most prominent TV game of the season.

People: I get the Stephmania and all because the Warriors have been unbelievable (and we’ll get to that soon here), but for the love of all that is holy, would you please stop dismissing Jokic? He’s basically a 7-foot point guard at this point, dragging an injury-riddled Denver team to competence.

Yet we’ve heard comparatively little Jokic banter thus far, despite the fact that through 13 games, his PER of 35.4 ranks … (checks notes) … first all-time.

 All. Time.

By a wide margin, actually — the all-time best heading into this year was 31.86 by Giannis Antetokounmpo in 2019-20. It’s only 13 games, and maybe Jokic’s numbers will dip as the year goes on, but nothing about his start has seemed particularly fluky or weird.

Even relative to the other four players who have been notably awesome in the early part of the season, Jokic has been on a completely different level (see chart).

We’re blessed with some awesome players right now, but in terms of production, it’s The Joker’s world. Yet, reading the tea leaves, it already seems very possible Jokic won’t repeat as MVP due to some combination of voter boredom and embarrassing oversight.

(Also, while we’re here: It is an unconscionable, embarrassing mistake that Jokic was left off the league’s top 75 players of all-time list, just to leave room for misty-eyed wistfulness about the fourth-best players on Lakers, Celtics and Knicks teams of yore. “Sure, this Jokic fella is good, but he’s no Dave DeBusschere.”)

The breadth of what The Joker is doing is overwhelming. Skill-wise, he’s the best passer in the league, but he’s also second in rebounding; oh, and he’s shooting 38.3 percent on 3s. And — get this — he’s sixth in scoring, while very nearly leading the league in 2-point shooting percentage at 66.3 percent.

Defensively, he’s less off-the-charts awesome, but his IQ and giant mitts still make him effective. (Fun fact: Jokic has more steals than Giannis, Trae Young or Kevin Durant. He’s in the league’s top 50 in both steal and block rate.) The Nuggets, quietly, are third in the NBA in defensive efficiency despite missing multiple key players, which sort of neutralizes the “WuT AbOUt hIs D?” angle.

In addition to having the best individual stats in the league, Jokic’s impact stats are borderline hilarious. The Nuggets are plus-14.2 points per 100 possessions when he plays, minus-11.6 when he sits, nearly a 26-point swing depending on whether he’s in the game.

The eye test backs up the numbers. He’s steadily improved his doughy physique and now moves better than ever, gliding past opponents in transition and making guard-like moves closer to the rim. As a roller, it’s been interesting to see him use long strides and (gasp!) athleticism to get chances close to the rim rather than ambling into jump hooks like he used to.

And mixed in, of course, are assorted displays of a rare basketball genius. He’s reinventing the game on the fly, doing stuff no big man has ever done and adding to the repertoire as he goes. Oh, here, let me just whip this one-handed, no-look, pick-and-roll dish to a driving Aaron Gordon:

Here’s another clip from the weekend that I kept rewinding before I just threw up my hands and realized I was dealing with some completely different species of basketball player.

Jokic never looked to his left on this play. Not once. He also didn’t have the ball and, in fact, had his back facing Will Barton in the seconds leading up to this pass. Yet somehow he knew, before the ball ever arrived, that Barton was open in the left corner and immediately snapped the ball there. 

How did he know this?

Even as the Nuggets scuffle along in fits and starts through early injuries and bad bench units, Jokic has been unbelievable. Night to night, he’s not just the most effective player in the league, but he also makes at least one mind-blowing play every single game … and everyone just kind of ignores it and goes about the day. Playing in the Rocky Horror Time Zone doesn’t help, but it’s still weird. It doesn’t help that the league still markets him like he’s Mason Plumlee.

Fans of good basketball: Appreciate this guy. He is an awesome, generational talent at the absolute peak of his powers.

Miles Bridges is getting paid

The peak Hornets experience is Bridges poster-dunking some fool while play-by-play guy Eric Collins loses his mind on the broadcast, but those fleeting experiences have a lot more substantial basketball surrounding them than in past years. Miles Bridges, highlight guy, has become Miles Bridges, basketball player.

It’s a fortuitous development for Bridges — and an untimely one for his team — because the Hornets and Bridges failed to agree on a contract extension before the season. That means Bridges will be a restricted free agent come summer, where he’s likely to be extremely popular in an otherwise target-light market, especially for rebuilding teams looking young.

While it’s possible only four teams will have enough room to bowl him over with an offer sheet, those four (Detroit, Orlando, San Antonio and Memphis) are exactly the type of wing-needy, on-the-way-up teams that would target a young forward like Bridges first. The Hornets can always match an offer sheet, of course, but it’s gonna cost them.

The reason it will cost them is because of the added craft on the ball that Bridges has shown this year. Formerly a straight-line, left-dominant driver, Bridges has added just enough variety to keep defenders guessing and, as a result, upped his scoring rate to 27.7 points per 100 possessions. Perhaps equally impressively, he’s expanded his game as a creator for others, upping his assist rate from a year ago while nearly halving his turnover rate at the same time.

Watch here, for instance. The Hornets iso him at the free-throw line, and he leaves his defender in the dust with a whirling spin for a layup:

Again, this isn’t some early-season 3-point flukeration — Bridges is actually down to 33.9 percent so far this year after shooting 40.0 percent a year ago. If anything, last year was the outlier in that category, which makes his jump this year even more impressive. Instead, he’s gone to work as a true one-on-one operator, to the point that Gordon Hayward has become the clear third option in terms of usage and shot attempts.

Did I mention he’s 23? Whether it’s Charlotte or someplace else, he’s got a nice payday ahead of him. 

Scottie Barnes, point center

Look, I don’t know exactly what Barnes is yet; I just know it’s interesting as hell. The list of people who can both a) play point guard and b) check the other team’s center is not a long one, but Barnes appears to be enough of a freaky hybrid to pull it off. As a big, multipositional ballhandler with iffy shooting, the player he reminds me of at times is Kyle Anderson at UCLA — another “point center.” Except that was in the Pac-12, not the NBA. Anderson hasn’t played a minute at center in the pros, and Barnes is now doing it every night.

Toronto is experimenting with a Barnes-Pascal Siakam-OG Anunoby frontcourt where there isn’t a true big man, but Barnes often masquerades as one. Meanwhile, Barnes leads all rookies in both scoring and rebounding and, as a “center,” is about the peak possible in terms of switchability. Meanwhile, his presence in the middle also makes him a tantalizing grab-and-go threat, as a few early highlights have already established.

We’ve all known Barnes has the ability to defend at an elite level on the perimeter; his game tape from Florida State made that clear. What’s amazing is that he can bang with centers, too.

Here’s Jusuf Nurkic thinking he’ll mash Barnes into the charge circle for a bucket and one; not so much. (I know Blazers fans will tell me this says more about Nurk’s decline than Barnes; let me have this.)

The interesting part is that the Raptors are mauling teams on the offensive glass despite this “small” look, with Barnes pulling down 8.4 percent of missed shots at the offensive end. (Khem Birch, a real center who plays backup five, also has been a massive factor here.) The big-picture analytical bet Toronto has made is that it has enough team speed that it can send more players to the glass without getting burned in transition — and so far, it’s working.

There are still things I wonder about with Barnes. He’s not super explosive around the cup (he got his shot blocked at the rim by CJ McCollum in a key play in Monday’s loss to Portland), and he’s shooting a ton of midrange 2s. He’s converting those latter shots at a decent rate right now, but that shot chart may drag down his efficiency over time if it doesn’t change.

But these are all rich people’s problems at this point. The pre-draft worry about Barnes was that he’d be unplayable offensively, and that was proven abundantly wrong in about three seconds. He’s one of the league’s most unique talents, and the only question is where his game goes from here.

Don’t challenge Myles Turner at the rim. Just … don’t.

In a season still clouded by larger questions — Do Domantas Sabonis and Turner fit together? Are the Pacers a good bad team or a bad good team? Will Indiana run a fast break this year? The one consistent highlight of every Pacers game is watching fools think they can dunk on Turner, only to get a face full of basketball for their prize.

Turner is blocking an absurd 9.5 percent of opponent shots this year, the highest total of his already awesome career in this category (he led the league the past two years), yet somehow, guys can’t help themselves. Sure, Indy’s games might be slow, joyless slogs in other respects, but they’re worth it for the cackling when some fool thinks he’s gonna dunk on Turner.  Like, what did Julius Randle think was going to happen here?

(The best part: Randle went right at him AGAIN on the next play and got called for an offensive foul, a business decision necessitated by his need to wipe away Turner’s arm before it humiliated him a second time.)

The numbers back up the eye test. Overall, Pacers opponents score 8.6 points per 100 possessions more when Turner is off the floor and shoot 42.2 percent when he’s on, compared to 48.4 percent when he’s off. (This isn’t some fluky 3-point thing, either.)

This also isn’t a case of Turner just hunting blocks. By another measure, Turner is bested only by Rudy Gobert as a rim protector among the NBA’s starting centers.

Finally, the blocked-shot rate is only part of the story for Turner, who is having his best NBA season on several levels. He’s upped his offensive aggression and seems more comfortable shooting jumpers off the dribble after defenses inevitably run him off the 3-point line; he’s even collecting rebounds occasionally, with a career-best 14.6 rebound rate. The changes are subtle, but they’ve added up to 15 games worth of a career year for the 25-year-old.

Tyrese Maxey is the roadrunner

The Sixers have held up surprisingly well in Ben Simmons’ absence, boasting the league’s top offense thus far. There are several reasons for that: Tobias Harris is having a huge year, Georges Niang was one of the best free-agent bargains, and the Furkan Korkmaz Experience is finally happening.

But the player who leads the Sixers in minutes is Maxey, a second-year guard selected 21st a year ago, and one who isn’t quite a point guard and isn’t quite a shooter. He has thrived nonetheless as Simmons’ de facto replacement at the point, thanks to blast-off, beep-beep quickness and unusual skill at making runners and bankers on the move. Does that combination remind you of any other 6-2 guard who was a late first-round pick?

We’ll get to that comparison in a second. First, let’s talk about his 2021-22. Quickness and shot making are a great start, but last season, he was too dependent on short-range floaters and didn’t always generate clean looks at the rim; he also virtually never drew fouls.

One thing I’ve seen more of this year is Maxey weaponizing those two skills by mastering the “catch-and-go,” where a player catches the ball on the perimeter against a closing defender and, instead of botching with a shot fake, immediately jets into a dribble drive. It sounds simple, but a lot of young players struggle to get the footwork down on this and end up traveling.

Not Maxey. He’s repeatedly used his zip to catch the ball several feet beyond the 3-point line and still get all the way to the rim on one dribble. I highlighted this twice last weekend because, well, I was in a hotel room and had nothing better to do.

Maxey got to the rim in one dribble on this. pic.twitter.com/HYauTWpxXN

— John Hollinger (@johnhollinger) November 12, 2021

Maxey again. One dribble, at rim. pic.twitter.com/VWjfY5eUnx

— John Hollinger (@johnhollinger) November 12, 2021

It’s a 536-minute sample, so caveats still apply, but Maxey is shooting an amazing 74.1 percent at the rim this season. You don’t do that as a 6-2 guard unless you’re generating clean blow-bys that lead to easy finishes. He’s also drawing more fouls en route, a thing not many players can say this season.

Maxey still depends to an unusual extent on difficult running bankers, and that makes you a little nervous projecting his future. But his first-step burst is undeniable and unteachable. If he can leverage tricks like the catch-and-go and tweaks to his off-the-dribble game to get to the rim just a bit more often, and if the basketball gods sprinkle in some stardust, you can start imagining a career trajectory that doesn’t look all that different from Tony Parker’s.

Tyler Herro, Sixth Man slinger

Finally, let’s close this with my preseason Sixth Man of the Year pick, because holy crap, I might get something right.

Much has been made of Miami’s new acquisitions, and certainly Kyle Lowry has made a massive difference to the Heat’s tempo and offensive variety, while P.J. Tucker’s switchability has been a boon to the defense.

But in the process, Herro’s third-year breakout might be getting short shrift. He got a lot of attention for his play as a rookie during Miami’s 2020 run to the Finals, but he had an underwhelming sophomore campaign while the Heat offense drowned in a sea of turnovers.

This season, with Goran Dragic and Kendrick Nunn gone and Herro playing almost exclusively on the ball, he’s dialed his game up to another level. Big picture, he’s doing exactly what sixth men are supposed to, rolling off the bench to shoot first and ask questions later. Despite a midrange-heavy shot mix, he’s doing it extremely effectively, too. Herro also is a high-volume 3-point shooter (10.4 attempts per 100) who has converted 39.4 percent, but the real special stuff has been off the dribble in the midrange. He has the size and bounce to get those spots very effectively and is knocking down 50.3 percent of his 2s despite hardly ever venturing inside the paint. Teams generally don’t mind conceding this shots, but Herro is good enough at making them to turn that equation on its head. Again, he’s done this while massively increasing his shot attempts, which is a tough way to increase efficiency.

Additionally, it’s been a huge help for Miami given the other options here. Herro needs to keep chucking, because if not, who else will? On a second unit with near-zero shot creation (Markieff Morris? Max Strus?), having a player who can come in and rip shots off at even average efficiency is hugely helpful.

Herro’s production has bled into his work with the starters, too, particularly with Jimmy Butler sidelined the last few games. Despite nominally being a reserve, he leads the team in minutes, usage rate and field-goal attempts. (Through 14 games, he already has 87 more attempts than the next-closest Miami player.)

Overall, Miami is fourth in offensive efficiency after sinking to 24th last season, and while there are multiple reasons for that (Lowry’s arrival, Bam Adebayo’s improvement, actually trying for offensive rebounds), Herro’s breakout has to rank highly on the list. The result has Miami back in a contending position in the suddenly cutthroat East.

(Photo: Tony Gutierrez / Associated Press)