Andrelton Simmons is a free agent. Prospects Royce Lewis and Austin Martin aren’t ready to be big leaguers yet. Nick Gordon is viewed as more of a utilityman. And if the Twins had their druthers, Jorge Polanco would remain at second base.
As the Twins look around to see who might be their starting shortstop next season, they’ve recognized that the vacancy is unlikely to be filled from within. Fortunately, as they go shopping this offseason, the Twins will discover plenty of outstanding options available, whether in the best free-agent class in the history of the position or on the trade market.
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Whether the Twins are looking to make a significant investment or a less expensive short-term one (we’re betting it’s the latter), the team appears prepared to put acquiring a shortstop near the top of its offseason shopping list.
“We have to be open-minded based on what the options are on the board, whether that’s through trade or free agency,” Twins president of baseball operations Derek Falvey said earlier this month at the general managers’ meetings in Carlsbad, Calif. “I would suspect an additional player would be on our roster who has shortstop capability beyond what we have right now, whether that’s a starter or a guy that can mix in. We’re going to have to see how the next few months play out.”
The names on the free-agent list are beyond intriguing. Carlos Correa, Trevor Story, Corey Seager, Javier Báez and Marcus Semien are among the biggest gets at the position.
But with most of their money likely earmarked for pitching, pitching and more pitching, and with two potential future shortstop options in Lewis and Martin closing in on the majors, the likelihood that the Twins go swimming in the deep end of the free-agent pool is low.
It also seems as if the Twins are uninterested in moving Polanco, who batted .282/.334/.545 with 32 home runs and 86 RBIs over 530 plate appearances from May 7 through the end of last season, back to shortstop after he flourished at second base. Whether it’s the offensive production offered or how comfortable he became at second base, Polanco looked like an impact player for much of the season after finally getting healthy again following offseason ankle surgery two years in a row.
“It’s hard to draw specific conclusions, and we’ve seen him have very good offensive seasons at shortstop,” Twins general manager Thad Levine said earlier this month. “He was an All-Star there in 2019. It’s hard to say that moving him to second base offered some real relief for him. That being said, it was clear he had one of the best halves of a season we’ve ever seen in the second half. It was at that time that I think he was becoming really comfortable playing second base. I think those two things were somewhat connected.”
The expected arrivals of Martin and Lewis (yes, we meant to do that) could affect whether the Twins go after a long- or short-term answer at shortstop.
Austin Martin is ~smooth~
MLB's No. 6 shortstop prospect makes a diving stop for @FisherCats. pic.twitter.com/xWav7bKXDz
— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) July 24, 2021
Although Lewis missed all of the 2021 season after tearing the ACL in his right knee, he was on the cusp of arriving at the end of 2020. He’d been the 2019 Arizona Fall League’s most valuable player and had an outstanding summer at the team’s alternate site in St. Paul. Had his path not been disrupted by injury, it wouldn’t have been a surprise to see Lewis reach the majors at some point in 2021.
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“Obviously, losing the pandemic year and losing the entirety of this year because of the ACL injury, that’s disappointing,” Falvey said. “But Royce is one of those who is one of the more optimistic kids there is. He’s put himself in a great spot physically. We just need to now get him some at-bats. We need to get him back on the field as much as possible.”
And though there are no guarantees that Martin will remain at shortstop — he played there and center field for Double-A Wichita after he was acquired in the José Berríos trade — the Twins focused on the prospect’s defensive work once he joined the organization in August. The Twins seem poised to work tirelessly with Martin on footwork and the other finer points of being a shortstop before they would ever give up on that possibility.
All of the above leads to the Twins looking outside for a shortstop. What kind of shortstop remains to be seen.
Would they look for a glove-first option, such as José Iglesias? Perhaps. Are they willing to sacrifice a little bit of defense for a better bat? Maybe.
“I don’t know we’re specifically married to how they achieve their WAR,” Levine said. “We want somebody who can contribute to a championship-caliber team. Last year, we clearly prioritized the defense, but it was an opportunistic play on Andrelton Simmons, who we feel is one of the best defensive shortstops, and he proved out to be that for us.
I think we’re going to assess what the talent on the market really provides. But we’re looking for somebody who has the capability of helping us win a championship.”
With that in mind, here’s a look at who we believe are some of the realistic top options to become the Twins’ next shortstop.
Most likely free-agent targets
1. José Iglesias
Iglesias, who will turn 32 in January, is an affordable glove-first option, perhaps without the need for a multiyear commitment. He’s not quite on Simmons’ level in the field, and it’s a potential red flag that Iglesias’ defensive metrics plummeted last season, but he’s long been considered one of baseball’s slickest fielders. He rarely walks and offers little power, capping his offensive upside to the bottom of the lineup, but Iglesias is a career .277 hitter who makes lots of contact and has a respectable .743 OPS over the past three seasons.
This wasn't an out…but we still think you should see this José Iglesias play. pic.twitter.com/2oV04fOo79
— Cut4 (@Cut4) August 29, 2019
2.
Another glove-first option likely to be available on a one-year deal, Galvis differs from Iglesias in that his below-average but palatable hitting includes 20-homer power, lots of strikeouts and a low batting average. He’s become more solid than spectacular in the field at age 32, but Galvis posted an OPS between .670 and .735 in each of the past six seasons. He also has plenty of experience at second base and third base, so Galvis could shift into a utility role if Lewis is ready at some point in 2022.
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3. Andrelton Simmons
As noted by Levine, the Twins were plenty satisfied with Simmons’ defense after signing the four-time Gold Glove winner to a one-year, $10.5 million contract last offseason. Unfortunately, his hitting declined from mediocre to awful, as he posted the lowest OPS in the entire league and hit for essentially zero power in the second half. Any chance of a Simmons return to Minnesota would require a sizable pay cut on another one-year deal, and even then the Twins may feel it’s easier to pursue a different glove-first option.
4. Marcus Semien
Semien was Minnesota’s top shortstop target last offseason, but he ended up taking a one-year, $18 million deal from the Blue Jays, and the Twins signed Simmons a few hours later. Now, after finishing third in the AL MVP voting, Semien should have little trouble securing a long-term deal worth at least $20 million per season. That price tag alone would make him an unlikely Twins target this time around, but it’s possible the 31-year-old could be in line for a shorter contract than younger star free-agent shortstops like Correa (27), Seager (28) and Story (29).
5. Javier Báez
From the standpoints of production and all-around value, Báez is very much on the same star level with Semien and Story as the elite shortstops available after superstars Correa and Seager. However, most prominent free-agent predictions have him getting a shorter contract for less total money, which could persuade the Twins to jump into the mix for Báez in search of good value. He swings at everything, and often misses, but Báez has 30-homer power with plus speed, and he’s a magician in the field.
Most likely trade targets
1.
Ahmed was an elite defensive shortstop with a history of decent hitting before a brutal season at the plate in 2021. He’s owed $18 million over the next two years, and the Diamondbacks have little need for a 32-year-old after losing 110 games last season, so Ahmed is almost surely available for a modest return. Arizona might even be willing to pay down some of his remaining contract to facilitate a trade.
2.
Gregorius was on the Twins’ radar last offseason, but they were targeting one-year pickups and he got a two-year, $28 million deal from Philadelphia. After his poor, injury-filled 2021 season, the Phillies might be willing to chalk that up as a mistake and shed as much of the $14 million left on his contract as possible. His defense has slipped below average at age 32, but Gregorius is one season removed from an .827 OPS and has a track record of 25-homer power.
3.
DeJong has obvious buy-low appeal as a 28-year-old former All-Star with 30-homer power and a good glove who struggled for the Cardinals the past two seasons. St. Louis has a younger in-house alternative in Edmundo Sosa, and DeJong is owed $15.4 million over the next two seasons and is under team control through 2025. However, he’d likely make sense for the Twins only if they have doubts about Lewis or Martin becoming a long-term answer at shortstop.
Most likely in-house option
1. Jorge Polanco
The Twins would prefer to keep Polanco at second base, but he can serve as the fallback plan in case they come up empty on the free-agent and trade markets. Polanco has always been stretched at shortstop, and multiple ankle surgeries haven’t helped that any, but he does have more than 4,000 career innings at the position and made 26 mostly uneventful starts there last season while serving as Simmons’ primary backup. There are worse “break glass in case of emergency” options than Polanco, but if he’s the Twins’ opening-day shortstop, it’s safe to assume the offseason did not go quite as planned.
(Photo of José Iglesias: Adam Glanzman / Getty Images)