The 2022 NBA Draft cycle is shaping up to be one of the most fascinating we’ve seen in a long time.
NBA scouts are pretty split on the strength of the class, with few players seen as sure things. Typically, this time of year, there might be 20 guys who scouts feel have separated from the pack and emerged as legitimate potential first-round picks. This year, there are probably more in the range of 10 to 15 who scouts are nearly unanimous on in terms of the range where they’ll be taken.
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There is so much room for movement across the board. Not many freshmen have truly stepped up and stood out early as guaranteed first-rounders. While some scouts are excited by guys such as UCLA’s Peyton Watson, Nebraska’s Bryce McGowens and Michigan State’s Max Christie, they also aren’t certain those guys profile as guaranteed 2022 prospects at this stage because they might need a bit more polishing at the collegiate level to reach the pinnacle of their draft stock.
That has left a lot of space for sophomores and upperclassmen to make a move and turn into draftable prospects. Below, I’ve focused on seven guys who have stood out to me thus far, all of whom are at least in their third season of collegiate play. I’ve tried to pick a mix of guys who were already on the map in addition to players who seem to be completely off the radar right now for one reason or another. Here are seven upperclassmen who have helped themselves a lot early in the 2021-22 college basketball season:
Ochai Agbaji | 6-foot-5 wing | Kansas | 21 years old | senior
Key numbers: 22.4 points, 4.1 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 57.5/49.1/72.4 shooting line
Ochai Agbaji has been among the players I’ve been most impressed with in college basketball this season. While Agbaji has always had the tools to be a terrific prospect, people who have followed my work over the last few years know how skeptical I’ve been of the 6-foot-5 senior, worrying about his ability to process basketball at high speeds and make plays without panicking. I didn’t love his handle and thought his passing ability wasn’t nearly strong enough. He didn’t just miss the tough reads; he missed the easy ones that would then result in bad shots or turnovers. To me, those are the biggest reasons he ended up not getting as much traction as you’d think as a prospect last season, attending the combine but ultimately not being able to build his draft stock to a high enough point to move forward to the next level.
That’s all changed. The game has clearly slowed down for Agbaji. He’s more confident and comfortable. The shooting was already there, as he made 38 percent of his 3s last year on nearly seven attempts per game. In a hot start to this season, Agbaji is averaging 22 points per game while shooting 45 percent from 3, though that probably won’t keep up (although I don’t think 40 percent over the rest of his season is out of the question). On top of that, he’s always been an elite transition player due to his high-level athleticism and leaping ability, as well as a terrific cutter for whom Kansas consistently runs interesting backdoor sets under Bill Self. All of that is still there. The leap, however, has occurred in his ballhandling and with the speed of the game. Agbaji, especially out in the semi-break, is making plays with ease with the ball in his hands. There is no panic, and his footwork is stronger. He’s a professional playing college basketball now. Throw in that he’s a good defender on the wing with the quickness and strength to be able to deal with a variety of different player types, and it’s kind of an easy fit for a modern NBA role.
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The only thing Agbaji still isn’t bringing is passing. He certainly doesn’t turn the ball over and has become much better at making smart escape passes and not getting rushed. Kansas also is using him as a play finisher as opposed to a real creator. But Agbaji taking that last step has transformed his game from “good, All-Big-12-level” player to “potential national player of the year candidate” if he keeps up this play.
He’s a clear first-rounder on my board right now. I see him as a top-20 guy. Every team needs shooters who can defend. As long as the decision-making continues to hold up, it’s hard to see Agbaji failing to at least become a good rotation wing at the next level.
Wendell Moore Jr. | 6-foot-5 wing | Duke | 20 years old | junior
Key numbers: 17.4 points, 5.9 rebounds, 5.1 assists, 1.6 steals, 58.3/40.0/70.6 shooting line
Wendell Moore has finally seized on the potential that evaluators thought he had back in 2019, when he was considered a potential one-and-done prospect, and become the kind of player NBA teams are interested in. I’ve spoken to scouts for multiple teams who have a mid-to-late first-round grade on Moore right now. He’s essentially been the do-it-all glue for the Blue Devils. They need a stop on a wing? Moore is the guy. Need someone to initiate a critical set and make a pass on the move? Moore can do that. A drive to the rim to try to finish in traffic? Moore has been a pretty capable scorer this season, averaging 17 points per game.
Overall, Moore is putting up an awesome stat line of 17.4 points, 5.9 rebounds and 5.1 assists. Typically, this type of all-around play from a wing-sized player with a nearly 7-foot wingspan is something I’d be pretty in on, rating Moore as a first-rounder myself. The Duke junior processes the game well now and seems to really have a great sense of how to play at every critical moment. There are few guys who have helped themselves as much as he has — especially given the disappointment of his sophomore season.
Right now, though, I see Moore as more of a top-40 type as opposed to a top-25 type. Why? I’m a bit less sold on his combination of athleticism and shooting. Moore is still a below-average wing in terms of athleticism by NBA standards, even with his improvements over the last year. On top of that, he’s still also a below-average shooter. I’m trying to figure out what the role is if the shooting doesn’t translate. Prior to making 4-for-4 from 3 against Appalachian State in Duke’s most recent game, Moore was only hitting 32 percent from 3, which upped his career mark to just 29.4 percent from distance. Obviously, that mark over a small sample upped his percentages, but the preponderance of evidence is that Moore still is not a particularly good shooter — with most of his 3s coming right on the college line. Here’s the thing that worries me: If Moore doesn’t shoot, what is his role? He’s not quite good enough to just give the ball to and tell him to make plays. His bullying, below-the-rim driving ability plays up much better on the college floor than it would in the NBA.
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If Moore does show some upside as a shooter throughout the rest of the year, I’ll be much more inclined to see him in the way the aforementioned NBA scouts I’ve talked to do. His already-apparent passing and defense combination would allow him to carve out a real rotational role if he can be an average shooter. But Moore’s shooting truly is his swing skill. Without it, he’s a tough sell as a role-playing wing. With it, he’s the kind of wing a lot of teams are looking for due to the well-rounded nature of the rest of his game. If you believe in him becoming a league-average 3-point shooter, I get the first-round grade on Moore. I’m just not quite there yet.
Keon Ellis | 6-foot-6 wing | Alabama | 21 years old | senior
Key numbers: 12.0 points, 6.4 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 1.5 steals, 48.7/35.4/90.0 shooting line
Keon Ellis has one of the more interesting journeys to the NBA among legitimate prospects this year. Originally signed to Gardner-Webb out of high school, Ellis decided to go the junior college route for his first two years due to academic concerns. He attended Florida SouthWestern and turned into a second-team NJCAA All-American in his second season there. He was recruited by Nate Oats and Alabama, which has ended up being a perfect fit. While Ellis didn’t play a crazy amount of minutes last year, he was consistently a player whom you would hear about from scouts and from the Alabama coaching staff in the offseason and preseason, saying he was going to be a breakout player this year.
The best way to describe Ellis is that he’s extremely active. He’s 6-foot-6 and has real athleticism, using it well on the defensive end within Alabama’s scheme — where he’s tasked with flying around in help and as a switchable on-ball defender. There is a true aggressiveness to his game, an aggressiveness that gives Alabama a bit of an edge and intent within their defensive scheme. Ellis isn’t immune to getting beat — honestly, he probably gets blown by a bit too often to be called a truly elite defender nationally — but he recovers at a high level and flies around in help to try to make up for mistakes from his teammates. He gets deflections, steals and blocks to disrupt the opposition regularly. He gets the most out of his athleticism on that end of the floor; he just needs to keep working on his technique. I buy him being a good defender at the NBA level long-term.
Offensively, things are a bit dicier. Ellis plays his role well. He’s more of a floor spacer and connective tissue piece than a star at the college level. But here’s the thing: Alabama’s offense is very similar to that of a spread-ball-screen, NBA-style offense, and Ellis gets to showcase exactly how he’ll play in the role an NBA team asks of him. Largely, Ellis spots up in the corner, rolls and replaces to the wing and is asked to space the floor. So far this year, he has made about 35 percent from 3 in those attempts. On top of it, he’s also a good cutter, and he can attack heavy closeouts from the opposition and find easy kickout passes to teammates. Evaluators will have an exact picture of how to project him into his role because he does exactly what a team at the next level will ask of him already.
The numbers aren’t going to be gaudy, and the highlights aren’t necessarily elite, but the tape is really good if you go through what he’s doing over the course of full games. I see Ellis as a top-45-level prospect in the class right now because it’s hard to find wings with legitimate NBA size, athleticism and shooting ability like this who also know how to play and have the potential to be plus defenders.
Pete Nance | 6-foot-10 forward | Northwestern | 21 years old | senior
Key numbers: 16.4 points, 8.0 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 2.0 blocks, 53.1/44.0/85.0 shooting line
The son of former NBA super-athlete Larry Nance Sr., Pete Nance’s trajectory is eerily similar to the development of his brother, Larry Nance Jr., at Wyoming. It took Larry Jr. a couple of years at Wyoming to truly morph his way into being an NBA prospect physically before being taken in the late first round on his way to becoming one of the more complete role-player bigs in the NBA. Similarly, Pete Nance got to Northwestern back in 2018 at 6-foot-10, 190 pounds. He’s now 225 pounds and has the ability to at least handle interior play. More than that, while he was working on his body, he also worked substantially on improving his perimeter play. The results have been clear this season, and Nance has transformed himself into one of the most valuable players in the Big Ten.
There isn’t really anything Nance can’t do now within the college game. He’s as well-rounded a big as I’ve seen this year. I wouldn’t say he’s quite as twitchy athletically as his brother, but he’s just as coordinated away from the rim on offense. Northwestern uses him somewhat often as a dribble-handoff guy, and Nance is very fluid in the way he operates within these actions. He can reject the handoff to drive or operate as a roller out of these actions into a lob threat. He’s a sharp passer who can turn and operate as a high-post threat looking for cutters. Even more impressively, he’s developed into a legitimate pick-and-pop threat. Nance has hit 44 percent of his nearly three attempts from distance this season, looking very confident and comfortable. There is a bit of a pause in his jumper at the top, and he’ll want to iron that out over the next few years. But the results are strong enough to show real potential. As a big, Nance does a lot of what the modern NBA big is asked.
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Defensively, Nance is capable in a variety of actions. He’s blocking two shots per game, doing a good job on the defensive glass and can match up with bigger guys on the block (as he showed in Northwestern’s win over Maryland when he was asked to defend the 6-foot-11, 240-pound Qudus Wahab). On the perimeter, Northwestern will use him aggressively in a few different ways. Sometimes he’ll hard hedge, and sometimes he’ll play flatter coverage. Having said that, he’s very comfortable sliding his feet and moving with guards. Again, I don’t think he’s quite as twitchy as his brother, who has morphed into one of the more versatile defenders in the NBA. But I do think there are some similarities in how teams will be able to use them.
I can’t quite put my finger on why Nance isn’t on the radar more. I’m not saying he’s a better prospect than Iowa’s Keegan Murray, but I think the two are much closer in terms of impact than has been acknowledged — especially when taking into account that Nance is only half a year older than Murray despite being a four-year player versus Murray being in the middle of his second season with the Hawkeyes. Nance defends well in applicable NBA situations, he shoots, he passes and can handle the ball a bit at 6-foot-10. Moreover, all of his best games this season, in my view, have occurred against high-major competition. I think Nance is a top-60 guy in this class based on what I’ve seen thus far. How he performs the rest of the year against the great Big Ten bigs could push him from a two-way type into more of a guarantee type player.
Michael DeVoe | 6-foot-5 guard | Georgia Tech | 22 years old | senior
Key numbers: 22.1 points, 5.4 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 1.5 steals, making 3.1 3s per game, 53.2 percent from 3
Michael DeVoe’s pathway is a bit more traditional. He was a top-60 recruit in the country out of Montverde Academy after transferring there from Oak Ridge High School in Orlando. He played with guys like RJ Barrett and Andrew Nembhard at Montverde on their way to winning the GEICO Tournament national title in high school. And throughout the years, he’s slowly but surely carved out his standing in the ACC. DeVoe is the last man standing of Georgia Tech’s star trio from last season, including Moses Wright and Jose Alvarado, that led the Yellow Jackets to their first NCAA Tournament appearance in over a decade. DeVoe won the ACC Tournament MVP award and has taken that late-season momentum and run with it.
Long considered an elite shooter, DeVoe is a career 42.1 percent 3-point marksman who has made over 40 percent from distance in each of his last two years prior to this one while taking over five attempts and averaging at least 15 points. And so far this season, DeVoe has taken an even bigger step forward. He’s currently third in the country in scoring while shooting an absurd 54.9 percent from the field and 53.2 percent from 3. His range is well beyond the NBA 3-point line. But more than that, he’s also a terrific passer who averages about four assists per game, including some high-level looks. His handle is strong. As an offensive player, there is a lot there.
His game against Wisconsin and potential first-round pick Johnny Davis was outstanding. Davis is a terrific defender and took on a large portion of that matchup. DeVoe caught him and the rest of Wisconsin for 33 points. Early in the game, the Badgers went under screens and dribble-handoffs, allowing DeVoe to showcase his quick trigger release if you don’t get up into his space. They started to go over on him, so he then began attacking and dished out some terrific live-dribble passes. Then he hit Davis with a between-the-legs dribble into a hesitation pull-up, stepback 3 to nearly end the half, giving scouts a feel for how technically sound his footwork and handle can be. After that, the Badgers really started to get in space to stop him from taking 3s, so DeVoe showcased some driving prowess with inside-hand layup finishes as well as a couple of floaters. It was as complete an offensive performance against a high-level defender as I’ve seen this year.
So if DeVoe is 6-foot-5 and an elite shooter, why is he not showing up on draft boards? I think he should, which is why I’m highlighting him here, first and foremost. But there are some concerns. I’ve asked some scouts what they think, and generally, the thought has been that in the past, DeVoe has been the kind of guy who goes off for 37 against a bad team then struggles more against good teams. While he showcased great play during last year’s ACC Tournament and the Wisconsin game, he has recently struggled a bit more against North Carolina and LSU. He’s not an awesome athlete, and his defensive ability is not particularly great. He has shown the ability to be a part of good defenses in college, including each of the last two years. But he’s not the reason for that, either. He can get beaten off the bounce, and there are some real explosiveness and athleticism concerns for him to deal with NBA players.
I see DeVoe as a top-70 type of player and a definite two-way option right now. He’s absolutely a player worth tracking, and it wouldn’t stun me to see him get drafted.
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Christian Braun | 6-foot-6 wing | Kansas | 20 years old | junior
Key numbers: 16.3 points, 6.8 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 1.4 steals and 1.2 blocks, 62.1/34.6/80.0 shooting line
Christian Braun is one of the true breakout players of the season. And funnily enough, Braun has performed in a drastically different way to what he has in the past. Braun has been more of a floor spacer in the past. During his freshman year, Braun took more than 55 percent of his attempts from beyond the 3-point line. As a sophomore, he took over 62 percent of his shots from 3. So far this season? Braun has taken just 27 percent of his shots from 3. Why?
More than anything, Braun is thriving in transition. He’s getting six of his points per game out on the break, running out and making himself available for early breakout looks. In the half court, instead of being more of a pure spot-up threat, Kansas is using him as more of a centerpiece in terms of movement off the ball. He’s cutting toward the rim a lot, timing his runs really well to find open spaces for high post looks. He’s fourth among wings in the country so far in points off cuts, averaging essentially one and a half makes off cuts per game. The most translatable skill he’s started to present, though, is the ability to attack more off closeouts. Teams are closing out on him hard, and Braun is playing with great bend to make it look like he’s a threat to shoot before attacking. All of this has led to Braun being one of the most efficient players in the country at reasonable volume. He’s averaging over 16 points per game while shooting over 60 percent from the field with a 68.8 true-shooting percentage.
If you mix the driving ability with the threat of the jumper and the off-ball movement, it’s easy to see why Braun has caught the attention of scouts as a player with real positional size at 6-foot-6 who can bring a lot of the skills that translate to the NBA. Ultimately, Braun’s career will be determined by how elite a level he can get to as a shooter. Braun has been under the 35 percent mark each of the last two years so far. I think he’s a better shooter than that, but I’m also not sold that he’s quite a 40 percent 3-point shooter from the college line yet either. His release is a bit slow, and his shooting pocket is pretty low, leading to a low release point that might be more easily bothered by NBA athleticism and length. That’s probably what he needs to be in order to be a legitimate rotation player in the NBA. He’s also not a particularly high-level defender, although he’s improved well within the Kansas scheme. He’s gotten tougher as he’s gotten stronger and has a better ability to deal with physicality.
Right now, I see Braun as more of a potential second-rounder. A lot of his points come in transition. And whereas someone like Jaden Ivey is a transition driver who creates more chances for your team out on the break, Braun is more of a finisher who does a great job of taking the chances that are given to him. That’s a credit to him, but I don’t know that it’s particularly translatable to being a difference-making NBA player either. Still, Braun has put himself on the map for scouts in a significant way that they’ll have to pay attention to as Big 12 season rolls on. If Braun can put up a huge Big 12 shooting season, he’ll be a potential 2022 draft guy.
Jake LaRavia, 6-foot-9 wing, Wake Forest | 20 years old, junior
Key numbers: 14.0 points, 5.7 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 2.2 steals, 69.9 true-shooting percentage
Wake Forest has surprised this season at 10-1, winning a pair of tough games against Northwestern and Virginia Tech already. The key addition that has led to this leap after the Demon Deacons won six games in the entire 2020-21 season is Jake LaRavia, a do-it-all wing whose sheer competence across the board covers for a number of roster holes. A transfer from Indiana State, LaRavia was on teams’ longer lists as a prospect to watch following a strong season that saw him named second-team All-Missouri Valley. Particularly, analytically inclined teams liked LaRavia’s mix of size, ball skills and combination of steal and block rates.
All of that has translated at an exceedingly high level for LaRavia at Wake, and it’s happened against high-major opponents too. Simply put, within college basketball, there is nothing at which LaRavia doesn’t excel. He isn’t the highest usage player in Wake Forest’s offense — that would be Alondes Williams, who has put up some big stat lines in his own right — but he’s the most important piece. Very little doesn’t end up going through LaRavia in some respect. If a team presses, he’s a big part of breaking it. If the team needs a release valve in ball screens, they’ll short-roll him. He excels as an off-ball cutter, timing his runs to the rim perfectly just as the defense falls asleep. With him, they look like a well-oiled team and a legitimate threat to make the NCAA Tournament. Without him, they barely beat VMI despite Williams going off for 36 points. Even prior to the VMI game, the team was about 18 points per 100 possessions better when LaRavia is on the court versus when he’s off it — highest on the team. That number only rose following Wake’s struggle without him on Tuesday, as he missed the game due to health and safety protocols. He’s by far the most dangerous player on the roster while also being incredibly unselfish and efficient.
It’s hard to overemphasize that efficiency part. His true shooting percentage of 69.9 is ridiculous, and as much as anything, it’s a testament to shot selection. Wake should be imploring LaRavia to take more shots, given how good he is at making them. Having said that, he’s also one of the smarter quick-read passers I’ve seen this year and gets his teammates open looks with patient, aggressive extra passes. On defense, he’s so smart and solid positionally, and he’s almost always ready with his hands up in passing lanes. He’s consistently there in the right spots rotationally in help defense. His feet aren’t fast, but he uses angles so well and has a lot of margin for error because he’s 6-foot-9. The way I’ve been talking about LaRavia to scouts is something like a bigger version of Memphis Grizzlies’ wing John Konchar, who has emerged into a solid rotational player this year. LaRavia just makes the right decisions and reads every time and plays perfectly within a team construct.
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I’d be lying if I didn’t tell you that I have some concerns about the slow-footed nature of his athleticism at the next level. He also needs to work on quickening his release a bit and being able to get off 3-pointers a bit faster. He’s not a sure thing. But I haven’t seen anyone outside of myself talk about LaRavia as a legit draft prospect yet, and in my conversations with teams, I often find myself trying to convince them he’s a guy worth checking out. It’s hard to find 6-foot-9 shooters who can pass and have good defensive instincts. I’d be pretty comfortably giving LaRavia a two-way grade right now, and potentially even a draftable, priority two-way grade as a second-rounder.
(Top photo of Christian Braun and Ochai Agbaji: Kevin Jairaj / USA Today)
