Team Canada Olympic stock watch: Who’s rising and who’s falling to make the 25-man roster?

Team Canada’s Olympic management staff led by GM Doug Armstrong met in Florida over the weekend.

The Friday-Saturday-Sunday meetings helped to further dial into the logistics and rules ahead of the Olympic men’s tournament to be held in Beijing in February (if indeed the NHL and NHLPA don’t pull out ahead of the Jan. 10 deadline).

But obviously, the management staff also used the time to further debate and dissect the working player list which Armstrong had hoped would be down around the mid-30s by mid-December.

One particular comment from Armstrong’s recent interview with The Athletic stands out when asked about lessons from Olympics past when it comes to roster-building:

“You have to continually reinforce that you’re building a team that can compete in an NHL-style game, not a team that can compete in an All-Star Game,’’ Armstrong said. “There’s going to be bodychecking, there’s going to be tight, defensive play. There are going to be things that you want to make sure you have players that can close games out, that can kill penalties, that can do all the things that make you successful.

“So, it’s not just taking the top eight scoring defencemen, the top eight scoring forwards, and saying ok, ‘They’ll figure it out.’ You need a team.’’

What it means, as always, is that some big names will be left off the 25-man roster, which no doubt will fuel the debate in our hockey-crazed country.

With just over a month or so before Team Canada announces its final roster, it feels like the right time to examine some risers and fallers, keeping in mind that the Olympic long list of 50-plus players was submitted back in mid-October.

Which means no player outside that long list can work his way onto the team. As per NHL/NHLPA stipulations, the long lists were not made public.

But through some digging, we’ve got at least some idea. For example, Nazem Kadri has had a torrid opening two months of the season for the Colorado Avalanche, but we believe he wasn’t part of the long list in October so therefore can’t make Team Canada now.

As such, while not confirmed 100 percent by anyone on Team Canada, we believe the following risers and fallers are players on the original long list and therefore eligible for Team Canada selection. Being a riser doesn’t guarantee one would make the team today nor does slotting as a faller guarantee the player won’t make the roster — the point is to simply see whose odds have shifted the most based on the first two months of the NHL season.

Risers

Forward

Steven Stamkos: 23GP, 12G-15A-27P

Stamkos’ overtime slap shot winner in Boston on Saturday night felt like the exclamation point in his long road back to Olympic radar relevancy. With Brayden Point and Nikita Kucherov out of commission due to injury, the Tampa Bay Lightning are Stamkos’ team again and he’s proving he can still put them on his back. He’s been excellent all season but has especially levelled up recently with eight points in six games since Point’s been out, a stretch where the Lightning have won all but one of their contests.

There’s very little chance he was making Team Canada’s 25 man-roster before the season began after injuries marred his last few seasons. Now? He’s absolutely got a shot. He’s top 5 among Canadian-born NHL scorers on the season and a man you can’t help but cheer for to make it in what would be his first Olympics.

Andrew Mangiapane: 25GP, 17G-3A-20P

Yes, we believe he made the original long list which is paramount of course. And why not after his MVP performance leading Canada to gold at the IIHF men’s world championship last spring. But he remained a long shot to make this star-studded Team Canada and may still be left on the outside looking in, but he’s doing all he can to force the issue, scoring once again on Sunday night against Vegas to pass Connor McDavid for the goals lead among all Canadian born NHLers. That’s awfully impressive considering he’s averaged less than 16 minutes per game.

Of course, Mangiapane brings more to the table than just his goal-scoring ability. The Toronto native has been one of the league’s top two-way play drivers this season as the Flames have controlled a monstrous 63.8 percent share of scoring chances when he’s stepped on the ice at five-on-five. He’s also been a key part of the Flames’ stellar penalty kill.

His stock indeed continues to rise. What a great story.

John Tavares: 25GP, 11G-15A-26P

Tavares looked like one of the forwards firmly on Team Canada’s bubble heading into this season. Currently a top-five point producer among Canadian forwards, so far he’s separated himself from the pack of tweeners. The Maple Leafs captain leads his team in points, his net-front work on the man advantage a key cog in restoring Toronto’s power-play strength. He’s back to driving even-strength offence at a high-end clip with his line creating scoring chances and scoring goals at levels we haven’t seen since his first year in Toronto.

Then there’s the matter of his competition. Ryan O’Reilly only has 13 points in 20 games to go along with middling two-way results relative to his track record. Sean Couturier was producing at a near point-per-game rate last season but has fallen to just 14 points in 22 games as the Flyers underachieve. Mathew Barzal’s been cold and Mark Scheifele hasn’t been playing his best hockey either.

Combine Tavares’ strong campaign with other centres on the bubble not playing up to their potential and it’s easy to see why he’s a riser.

Zach Hyman: 23GP, 11G-7A-18P

For a long time, Hyman’s increased production and profile have been downplayed to a certain extent because of the superstar linemates he’s played with. In Toronto, he was riding shotgun with Auston Matthews, and in Edmonton, he’s predominantly been alongside Connor McDavid. Anyone who’s watched him closely, however, will know that he’s more than simply a disruptive grinder whose offence is solely a product of who he plays with.

Hyman’s a legitimate top-line player on his own accord.

The 29-year-old is a handful to defend against with his size and speed combo. He’s become more confident carrying the puck, attacking from the outside lane with pace and using his shot. Many will scoff at Hyman’s case because of the time he’s spent with McDavid but if it were so easy to play with top talent the Oilers would have found a long-term fit for the best player on this planet many years ago.

We highlighted Armstrong’s comments about how this isn’t just a matter of assembling an All-Star team and Hyman is the exact type of player who could benefit from that approach. He checks off a lot of unique boxes: He’s one of the league’s best forecheckers, he’s a consummate defensive player who can play matchup minutes and kill penalties, he offers a physical edge and he now has enough of an offensive touch as well. He’s brought all those elements in spades in what’s been a seamless transition to Alberta.

Hyman could warrant legitimate consideration for a spot, especially if Team Canada wants to assemble a different identity with its fourth line.

Defence

Aaron Ekblad: 24 GP, 8G-15A-23 P

We remember last year when we had Ekblad on an early Team Canada Olympic roster that it caused a fuss with some people. We don’t think those same people would be fussed now. To us, the Florida Panthers stud blueliner is a near-lock to make Team Canada, albeit that right side as always is crazy elite to crack. But we believe Ekblad will make it.

He leads all Canadian blueliners in NHL scoring and has been a rock all-around for the contending Panthers. Ekblad’s underlying numbers show that Florida dominates possession and quality chances when he’s on the ice, which has led to a monster 70 percent share of five-on-five goals (28 goals for, 12 against).

Aaron Ekblad. (Sam Navarro / USA Today)

Morgan Rielly: 26 GP, 3G-15A-18P

The left side once again is where things are a little more wide-open for Team Canada and last spring’s first-round playoff loss for the Maple Leafs didn’t help any of Toronto’s Canadian star players in terms of their Olympic candidacy. But a strong opening two months from the Leafs, and certainly Rielly individually, has seen his stock rise as far as the Olympic radar.

What’s equally important is that some of his left side competitors like Adam Pelech, Jakob Chychrun and Thomas Chabot have all been unable to put together breakthrough performances on struggling teams.

Rielly’s not a lock, but we would venture to guess when the list gets cut to 30 or so players, he will still be there and perhaps may make the team outright.

Goal

Carter Hart

The Philadelphia Flyers have struggled mightily over the past month but it hasn’t been because of their young netminder. Hart’s .911 save percentage is third among the six goalies Team Canada named to its long list in October (the others being Marc-Andre Fleury, Darcy Kuemper, Jordan Binnington, MacKenzie Blackwood and Carey Price, who hasn’t played yet) but his performance shines even brighter when you account for the quality of the shots he’s faced.

Based on his workload, Hart has saved 4.4 goals above expected (relative to a league-average goalie) according to Evolving-Hockey’s model. That’s the best mark out of the aforementioned Canadian long list of goalies.

Team Canada was betting that Hart would bounce back based on his pedigree and track record and they’ve been rewarded for that faith. We’ve seen enough from Hart ourselves to feel confident about making him one of the three picks come January.

Fallers

Forward

Mathew Barzal: 20 GP, 5G-8A-13P

Honestly had you forced us to pick the 25-man roster in early October we would have had the uber-talented Barzal on Team Canada. But Barzal has struggled with just 13 points on the season and perhaps to some degree is a victim of his surroundings with the surprising last-place New York Islanders.

Barzal’s still creating offensive chances but as colleague Dom Luszczyszyn highlighted last month, his two-way performance has also slipped.

In years past, Barzal’s excelled at using his elite skating ability to push play up the ice to help his line outshoot and outchance opponents. That play-driving impact hasn’t manifested this season, particularly in the defensive end, as Barzal’s conceding high danger chances at nearly double the rate compared to last season according to Natural Stat Trick.

The lack of possession advantage means that for the first time in his career Barzal’s line is not outscoring opponents, as he’s currently sporting an even goal differential at five-on-five.

Whatever way you want to spin it, especially when you consider how deep Team Canada is at centre and the fact some centres will be asked to play wing (which I think Barzal could do), it just appears right now like Barzal’s stock has fallen where he’s on the outside of things.

Tyler Seguin: 21GP, 6G-4A-10P

When you miss nearly an entire season like Seguin did last year, a slow comeback isn’t surprising and it has been a tough go for the Dallas Stars forward so far this season. Seguin’s lack of production with 10 points in 21 games speaks volumes. So do some of the numbers under the hood which show that Dallas is getting outshot, outchanced and ultimately outscored by five goals when he’s taken the ice for them at five-on-five.

With the elite options Team Canada has up front, it would take a minor miracle at this point for Seguin to make the Olympic roster.

Bo Horvat: 25 GP, 7G-6A-13P

Horvat would usually either win one of the final spots or be a late cut on most pundits’ Olympic roster projection heading into this season. He’s never been a flashy producer so most Canadian fans rarely had his name on the tip of their tongues but it’s easy to see how he could have appealed to the team builders regardless. Horvat’s established himself as a workhorse with the Canucks as a matchup second-line centre, someone who can win draws exceptionally well, offer a bigger body down low and start a ton of shifts in the defensive end. Those are the boring but often overlooked elements that managers value.

Alas, Horvat’s had a middling season on a sinking Canucks team that can point to its underperforming top-six as one of the problems.

Mark Scheifele: 18GP, 6G-8A-14P

After a disappointing playoff run overshadowed by a devastating four-game suspension, Scheifele hasn’t exactly blown the doors off this season. He’s been a point-per-game or better over the last five years but has mightily struggled to find his form before Winnipeg’s last two games where he’s popped.

This decision might come down to the perception of his all-around game. Does Team Canada see him as a high-end two-way centre who can excel in situations and win key draws? Because that’s the kind of spot he might have to be gunning for if his offence isn’t clicking at a high enough rate to warrant a spot higher in Canada’s lineup. Scheifele’s a tremendously gifted offensive player but he hasn’t delivered on that upside yet and it’s possible they might prefer the Selke-level two-way chops of an O’Reilly or Couturier for one of the final spots.

If you were to look at the underlying numbers, the answer would be that his 200-foot play driving ability hasn’t been strong enough. Scheifele’s 44.8 percent expected goal share indicates that Winnipeg struggles to control quality chances when he’s on the ice. That’s spilled over on the scoresheet as the Jets are an even 14 goals for and 14 goals against in his five-on-five minutes — not what you’d hope for from an elite player looking to make a Canadian Olympic team.

Mark Scheifele. (James Carey Lauder / USA Today)

Defence

Dougie Hamilton: 19GP, 6G-9A-15P

We feel bad putting Hamilton in the “fallers” category because he’s been pretty good so far for the New Jersey Devils. He’s proven he’s legit away from Jaccob Slavin which often used to be one of the asterisks next to his name.

But the unfortunate reality for him is that he needed to be spectacular, we think, to bust his way into the hierarchy of Team Canada’s right side where Alex Pietriangelo was already named to the team, where Cale Makar is a lock, where Aaron Ekblad is a near lock, and where veteran Drew Doughty is an Olympic holdover who has played well when healthy this season and has always held sway with Team Canada management. We also suspect Colton Parayko is another righty in the mix. So I mean, where does that leave Hamilton? We suppose they could take five righties, there are no rules against it. But we think what ultimately hurts Hamilton is that Team Canada feels it has what it needs in that style of player in Makar.

Adam Pelech: 16GP, 0G-3A-3P

This is a guy whose stock we think had really risen in the eyes of Team Canada management with his performance in back-to-back playoffs for the Islanders. But like many of his teammates, his performance has dropped a bit this season, which also wasn’t helped by being placed in the COVID-19 protocol last month.

We would have had him on our Team Canada roster in early October, now we’ve got him just on the outside looking in. Mind you, he’s a left-handed D which helps him.

Jakob Chychrun: 24 GP, 2G-5A-7 P

2020-21 was a massive breakout season for Jakob Chychrun. He leapfrogged longtime franchise icon Oliver Ekman-Larsson as the team’s top pair matchup defender and didn’t look back. Chychrun scored a whopping 18 goals in 56 games, controlled two-way play admirably and garnered a little bit of outside Norris buzz.

It’s safe to say he’s fallen back down to Earth a little bit. Chychrun’s scoring rate has plummeted, his two-way numbers have crashed and the Coyotes have been outscored 30-9 with him on the ice at five-on-five. Yikes.

Arizona’s a bad team — the environment undoubtedly hurts him — but he’s lost a lot of momentum and buzz in his bid to make the Olympic team.

Goal

Darcy Kuemper

His performance at the IIHF world championship was a big factor in him being named to the long list in October, and rightfully so. But it’s been far from steady so far with the Cup contending Avalanche — Kuemper sports a .903 save percentage and hasn’t yet found the kind of consistency that would get him onto the Canadian Olympic roster.

The 31-year-old has saved nearly seven goals fewer than expected per Evolving-Hockey’s model, which is the worst mark of the Canadian goalies on the long list.

We believe he’s on the outside looking in right now.

(Top photo of John Tavares and Morgan Rielly: Mark Blinch / NHLI via Getty Images)