Things are looking bleak for the Raiders. They’ve lost four of their past five games and feel like a team that’s much further back than one game out of the playoffs.
They still have five games left and turning things around can’t be completely ruled out. Three of their four losses have come by one score, after all, and they’re probably only a handful of plays away from being in a much different position. Time is running out, though, and they have one of the toughest remaining schedules in the league. They’ll need to correct their issues quickly if they want to play football past their Week 18 matchup with the Chargers.
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Here’s my analysis from the Raiders’ Week 13 loss to the Washington Football Team. It incorporates a blend of statistics, reporting and film study. This series will continue until the Raiders’ season ends.
Tre’von Moehrig made a few costly miscues
Tre’von Moehrig has played well as a rookie starter, but this wasn’t his best performance. On a third-and-10 on the opening drive of the game, the Raiders sent a nickel blitz and Moehrig walked down to play man coverage against Washington wideout Terry McLaurin. He was beaten on an out route, and McLaurin made a catch toward the sideline to pick up the first down. Four plays later, Washington had a first-and-goal at the Raiders’ 7-yard line and Moehrig was lined up at his usual center fielder position. Washington tight end Logan Thomas ran a post route into the end zone and linebacker Denzel Perryman pointed toward him to tell Moehrig to pick him up, but the safety was already moving in the opposite direction and appeared to think Perryman was going to carry Thomas throughout the route.
I don’t want to pile on Moehrig without knowing the defensive call or the specific responsibilities on the play, but it would make more sense to help Perryman, who’s struggled in coverage, instead of Casey Hayward, who was matched up one-on-one with some guy named Cam Sims. Thomas was left wide open due to the miscommunication, and his leaping catch gave Washington their first points of the game.
L😳GAN TH🤯MAS
📺 » FOX | #WASvsLV pic.twitter.com/QYW9ghN78F
— Washington Football Team (@WashingtonNFL) December 5, 2021
On a first-and-10 on Washington’s final drive of the game, the Raiders sent another nickel blitz, which meant Moehrig was in man coverage again. This time, he was matched up with receiver Adam Humphries. Washington did a pretty good job of picking up the blitz, but the combination of the pressure and coverage downfield caused quarterback Taylor Heinicke to hesitate and hitch before he threw.
Heinicke threw a pass intended for Humphries. Moehrig was in a good position and jumped the pass. The ball hit him right in the hands; he just dropped it.
Washington had three timeouts left, but only 53 seconds remained in the game, so the Raiders likely would’ve won had Moehrig made the interception. Instead, Washington kicked the winning field goal three plays later.
If healthy, DeSean Jackson needs to start
DeSean Jackson was playing through a calf injury, so it’s no surprise that he played only 24 offensive snaps, but he should be a starter when he gets healthy. He’s 35 years old, so starting “Z” receiver Zay Jones should absolutely remain a part of the rotation for durability purposes, but the offense is just different with Jackson on the field. Since Jackson joined the team, the Raiders are averaging 9.5 yards per attempt with him on the field and just 7 yards per attempt when he’s off it, according to TruMedia. He not only stretches the field vertically but also opens things up for everyone else. If Jackson’s body will allow it, he’s shown enough to deserve a larger role.
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Zay Jones was definitely interfered with at the end of the game
Down two points with just 31 seconds left and one timeout remaining, the Raiders were in desperation mode. Quarterback Derek Carr launched a deep shot intended for Jones, who got a step on his matchup on a go route.
It was a well-thrown ball, but Jones was unable to make the grab. One of the reasons: Washington’s Bobby McCain tugged on his jersey as he located the ball and began to position himself to attempt to make the catch. The referees didn’t call it, but it was as clear as day.
It’s not as if Jones got mauled — and he still had a chance to make the catch — but that’s a penalty most of the time. Had it been called, it would’ve set Daniel Carlson up in pretty good position for a winning field goal. The non-call wasn’t the only reason the Raiders lost, but it was surely a contributing factor.
The offense just isn’t set up well to extend or finish drives
The offensive line is inconsistent, the run game gives little reason for defenses to respect it, and the play calling has been bland. The Raiders are fairly predictable on offense, and defenses have been able to bring them to a halt in the most high-leverage moments regardless of whether they’re in a favorable situation.
For example, the Raiders have had 49 third-and-short attempts (tied for fifth) but still rank 30th in overall third-down conversion rate. They’ve had 44 red-zone drives (tied for 10th) but have scored touchdowns on only 50 percent of their red-zone possessions (tied for 29th). Against Washington, the Raiders converted just 25 percent of their third downs and went 1-for-2 in the red zone. This late in the season, it’s hard to see either of those trends changing.
Divine Deablo was solid in a surprisingly big role
Nick Kwiatkoski (zero defensive snaps), Cory Littleton (22 snaps) and Perryman (42 snaps) all dealt with injuries, which contributed to Divine Deablo playing a season-high 34 snaps against Washington. Deablo had a couple of lapses in coverage, but he was second on the team with 10 tackles and looked pretty good in his first sustained action of the season. Depending on injuries, he may have to start against the Chiefs on Sunday.
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“We think Divine’s been coming on in practice all the time and getting a lot more reps certainly at the will linebacker,” interim coach Rich Bisaccia said Monday. “He had a chance to go in there and play for us for a little bit, and we had some injuries. We thought he did a good job, and he kept his role on (special) teams as well.”
Malcolm Koonce briefly flashed
With Carl Nassib missing the game because of a knee injury, rookie Malcolm Koonce made his NFL debut. The third-round pick played only seven snaps, but that didn’t stop him from jumping out. On a second-and-13 late in the second quarter, he bull-rushed Washington left tackle Charles Leno and pushed him straight back into Heinicke.
Koonce got a hold of Heinicke and brought him down for the sack. It wasn’t a pretty move, but the small-school defensive end, listed at just 6-foot-2 and 250 pounds, was able to push back an NFL lineman. Regardless of how much he plays the rest of the way, that’s an encouraging sign.
“I think he’s practicing at a high speed right now, and he’s getting pushed all the time,” Bisaccia said. “You saw some of the speed that he has, you saw some of the explosion that he has and, if you looked at the punt rush tape, he had a really good rush one time at the punt rush as well. So, we’re hoping this time of year those guys are starting to play a little bit more than they’ve played in the past and they can start to come on a little bit for us. So, we’ll see how it works out going into this week’s game.”
Hunter Renfrow has hit another level
Hunter Renfrow already proved that he was a good slot receiver with two productive seasons to start his NFL career, but this year he’s shown that he can maintain that level of play with greater volume. He’s already set career highs with 92 targets, 73 catches and 760 yards and has matched a career high with four touchdowns through 12 games. He’s averaging 8.3 yards per target (his career average is 8.4) and 10.4 yards per catch (his career average is 11.4) while averaging a career-high 79.3 percent catch rate.
The third-year wideout caught nine passes for 102 yards against Washington, which was the second time in his career he’s hit 100 receiving yards in back-to-back games. He’s layered his route running, shown impressive elusiveness after the catch, maintained consistent hands and gained confidence. He’s more than just a reliable slot wideout; he’s one of the featured weapons on the offense.
Greg Olson needs to commit to aggressiveness
As I wrote Sunday, the Raiders offense displayed a shocking lack of aggressiveness against Washington. NFL Network analyst and former player Brian Baldinger highlighted the issue in a tweet Monday morning, and it was apparent to anyone watching the game.
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Carr will receive a lot of criticism for all the checkdowns we saw Sunday, but the issue starts with the play calling. Olson called a timid and conservative game from the start and played right into Washington’s hands. Carr and the rest of the offense were held back by Olson’s decision-making, not the other way around.
Olson has leaned into a pass-heavy offense, but that’s not enough. Against Washington, 57.9 percent of Carr’s passing attempts traveled 5 air yards or fewer, and he threw 12 passes at or behind the line of scrimmage, which is his second-highest total this season. The Raiders can’t just go bombs away every play, obviously, but they seemed apathetic about testing Washington on the back end. Through three quarters, Carr had attempted just three throws of 20 or more yards. When everything was on the line in the fourth quarter, Carr threw three more such throws and the offense put together two scoring drives after having just two scoring drives all game long. Carr missed some opportunities, as Baldinger pointed out, but the reliance on short throws for most of the game was by design.
There’s no real alternative to Olson calling plays — Bisaccia surely isn’t assuming that role — so it’s going to take an adjustment in approach from the offensive coordinator for things to change. He showed he’s capable of doing so in the wins over the Broncos, Eagles and Cowboys. Whether the results follow or not, it’s time to buy into doing the same thing every week. The Raiders have everything to lose, and they need their offensive play calling to reflect that.
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