Giants prospects mailbag: Why was Seth Corry not protected in the Rule 5 draft? Should Camilo Doval be ranked higher?

Winter is a time for dreaming of renewal, and nothing is more fun than projecting the future of your favorite team’s top prospects (I obviously know how to have a good time). It’s MLB prospects month here at The Athletic and our writers are delivering the goods on their team’s future stars. Earlier this week, I chimed in with my take on the Giants’ top 30 prospects. I’ll have lots more prospect content as the offseason continues, so be on the lookout for that. Based on the number of questions I received after the top 30 was released, you’re hungry for prospect talk. So, let’s chat! Below are my answers to many of your queries, edited lightly for typos and full names. Thank you again for your enthusiasm!

Why do you think the Giants left Seth Corry unprotected in the Rule 5 draft? You had him as a “lock” to be protected in an earlier article. I know he had a bad season (especially with control) but how can the Giants risk losing someone with that upside? Particularly when our top prospects are hitter heavy. — Aaron C.

Surprised to not see Sammy Long here, what does Corry have more of other than being younger? Corry basically had the worst control in all of the minors this season. — Ram S.

Do you think the Rule 5 draft will be discontinued? I too was very surprised to see Corry left unprotected. Any thoughts why? — James R.

Corry came into the 2021 season as the Giants’ top pitching prospect, so it’s not surprising he weighs heavily on your minds after his frustrating season that left him searching for his command and exposed to the Rule 5 draft. There’s no doubt the season was a step back for him. In 2019, he had seemingly mastered the control problems that plagued him early in his career, but they returned with a vengeance after the lost 2020 season. There was some thought that he made a few tweaks to his mechanics while working during the shutdown that led to those issues. A lot of time was spent getting him back to that 2019 form when he was in Arizona during the summer.

There are a lot of similarities between him and Long, both in terms of stuff and the history of wildness. The difference is that Corry has a longer track record of starting — and staying healthy — than Long and seemingly is just a mechanical tweak away from getting back to the dominance he showed in 2019. It’s easier to see him being able to stick as a starter than it is to see Long — who is 2 1/2 years older — staying in that role. Both are really good arms to have around, however.

I was obviously quite surprised to see the Giants not protect Corry, but the Giants must be banking on the idea that teams wouldn’t be able to trust Corry with an MLB rotation or bullpen spot given his command issues in 2021. It’s definitely a risk, but the Giants are in win-now mode and are placing a heavy value on giving roster spots to players who can help them immediately and Corry isn’t likely to be ready to help a contender in 2022. There haven’t been any rumblings that the Rule 5 draft would be changed in a new collective bargaining agreement, but it’s possible a long lockout could make it logistically difficult to hold the major-league portion before next season. Possible, but highly unlikely.

What do the Giants see as a future for Sammy Long? I thought outside of a couple of outings that blew up his stats, he generally pitched well, and his stuff seemed to be major-league caliber. I hope the Giants give him a real chance. But it’s looking like a Conner Menez redux. — Edward Z.

I think the Giants were pleased overall with how Long’s season played out. He threw 83 innings between the minor leagues and the big leagues, and gained experience pitching in the rotation and out of the bullpen in the upper levels. He had bumps in the road, but considering he had never pitched above Low A before 2021, he did as well as anyone could have expected.

Long has excellent stuff and should carve out a major-league role of some kind. Whether that is in the bullpen or the rotation depends in large part on his health and on whether he can be more efficient with his pitches so he can work deeper into games. But I think he is still very much part of the mix of pitchers the Giants envision helping them over the course of the 2022 season.

Great article. How did you consider the rankings? It’s just weird to see Camilo Doval at #23 after what he showed last year. Is the premise of the rankings that 22 other players have higher upside? — William B.

If I understand correctly, prospect evaluations are based on how likely a player will contribute to their MLB team and how much value they will provide, right? I understand a reliever gets points removed for value relative to, say, a shortstop, but why does a player like Camilo Doval — who has already provided for the big league club and demonstrated an increased likelihood to play a long-term role for the club for many years to come — only warrant a ranking in the mid-20’s for the Giants? Surely a player that has already shown the ability to be a top-tier closer in the MLB — a position teams have consistently shown has value through mid-season trade hauls and relatively large free agent contracts compared to other relievers — carries more value than a work in progress prospect with potential, but has shown nothing else? I’m not talking about the Marco Lucianos of the world, but what makes someone like Will Wilson ranked higher than Camilo Doval? Thanks in advance, always enjoy reading your stuff! — David S.

There were a number of questions specifically centering on Doval’s ranking and why he’d be so “low” given how he performed in the big leagues. It’s a fair question. Prospect evaluators put different emphasis on what they value as it relates to rankings. For me, starters are so much harder to develop than relievers that a pitcher who has a chance to start in the big leagues will generally rank higher than even a very good reliever. I’ll note that Doval at 23 is the highest-ranked pitcher on the list whose background is exclusively as a reliever.

It’s also worth pointing out that as good as Doval was in his big-league debut, he did struggle at times in Triple A last season, has battled his command at various points throughout his career and was pitching with the benefit last season of very little advanced scouting on him. I weighed his time in Triple A along with what he did in the big leagues when assessing his ranking.

While the big prospects are the ones everyone gets excited about, who among the Giants farm system could make a big impact as a platoon guy or bench bat? We saw the Giants succeed so well this year rotating guys in and out, so who could fill that type of role in the next couple of years? — Cody N.

One of the players I thought would be able to help them in a bench role as soon as this season was Diego Rincones, which is why I was surprised he was left unprotected in the Rule 5 draft. His bat-to-ball skills and hard-hit rates make him a good fit as a bench bat. He did struggle some against left-handed pitching this season (he’s a right-handed hitter), but reverse splits aren’t usually something that carries over year to year.

Brett Auerbach looks like a potential Ben Zobrist-type, with the added benefit of Auerbach being able to catch on occasion, as well. He’s a tremendous athlete with a solid approach at the plate and he hits the ball really hard. He’s the type of player who could log 20+ games at three or four different positions in the same season.

With two catchers, two shortstops, and three outfielders towards the top of the list, which of them has the positional flexibility the Giants covet? Obviously they all won’t arrive at the same time and trades are always possible, but are any of them working out at multiple positions that might give them a leg up? — Todd H.

Hello, just a general curiosity but I was wondering if there has been an increased conscious effort in the Giants farm system to make prospects more versatile in their playing positions. (Adding a couple more infield positions, adding corner outfield positions, etc.)

Farhan Zaidi often stressed that versatility is one of his priorities when looking for players, and I was wondering if players like Aeverson Arteaga especially are being groomed into super-utility player type. Thanks! — Sean K.

One of the most interesting things about player development is how defense is developed. Generally speaking, players (especially those who didn’t go to college) tend to focus on just one position early in their careers, but then often add positions once they are nearing the big leagues. It’s hard to learn to be an elite shortstop without significant focus on it, but it’s a lot easier to learn to be an outfielder on the fly or move to second base later in their development. Players like Marco Luciano or Aeverson Areteaga are likely to remain at shortstop pretty much exclusively until they get to Double A or Triple A, at which point the Giants will likely have them get some reps at second and third and maybe in the outfield, just to expand their options. So even though they aren’t playing other positions now doesn’t mean they won’t be by the time they’re big-league ready.

The general rule of thumb is that up-the-middle talents — shortstops or center fielders — can move to other positions fairly easily because of the athleticism it takes to play those positions. Luis Matos and Heliot Ramos no doubt will be able to play all three outfield positions, and Luciano should have no problem at second or third. Jairo Pomares is more limited but likely could play some first base in addition to a corner outfield spot. Catchers Joey Bart, Patrick Bailey and Ricardo Genovés all have some experience at first base.

The Giants’ top-four MLB ranked prospects are all position players, but I’m interested to see how the Giants handle all their pitching prospects next season: Who do you have your eyes on as a fast riser within those MiLB arms? — Nick H.

I guess I’m higher on Kyle Harrison than MLB.com but in general, yes, the highest-rated prospects in the Giants system are position players. That said, I think what they were able to do with their pitching development program last season was remarkable and may have flown under the radar nationally. The Giants seemed to get the most out of nearly all of their arms at every level in 2021, producing scores of strike-throwing starters and relievers with intriguing pitch mixes. Their emphasis on allowing pitchers to pitch to their strengths rather than forcing every pitcher to throw a particular pitch has fostered this successful development. It seems simple to let pitchers pitch to their strengths, but there are a lot of organizations that waste a lot of time trying to fit round holes into square pegs. I think the Giants will surprise a lot of people with how many major-league quality arms they are able to produce in the next few years.

Are there any other catching prospects besides Joey Bart and Patrick Bailey? Am I right to be concerned about them? — Stewart C.

Catching prospects who project to be both strong defenders and at least average hitters in the big leagues are pretty rare, so that the Giants have at least two of them is impressive. Bart and Bailey are both not without their prospect warts — Bart’s health and swing-and-miss have been a concern and Bailey’s struggles in High A were surprising — but they are still easily among the top 15 catching prospects in all of baseball and both should have major-league careers.

Ricardo Genovés is lesser known but he, too, is a solid catching prospect. He’s a good receiver with a plus arm and has shown some promise with the bat. Adrian Sugastey hit .358 with a .405 OBP as an 18-year-old in Rookie ball in 2021. He still has a long way to climb in terms of his development, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see him emerge as a top-20 Giants prospect in 2022.

How did the Giants fare in the AFL? Not sure if I missed a write up … why doesn’t MLB make it easier to follow the AFL?!? — Ryan L.

The AFL has traditionally been much more difficult to follow than it should be, although there were some improvements this year with some of the games being streamed on their website and the Fall Stars and Championship Game airing on MLB Network. That said, given the interest in prospects, it’s a shame that not all of the games are available via streaming.

The Giants’ performances in the AFL were a mixed bag. Patrick Bailey hit .292 with a .792 OPS, ending his season on an up note. Hunter Bishop had a hot final week of the season and homered in the Fall Stars game. Marco Luciano had a .730 OPS but struck out 28 times in 86 at-bats, while Will Wilson struggled for most of the season, hitting .164 with a .542 OPS. On the pitching side, R.J. Dabovich (1.69 ERA) and Seth Corry (3.09 ERA) were both productive but also both walked a lot of guys. Gregory Santos hit 103 mph on the radar gun but had a 4.15 ERA with a 12:5 K:BB in 13 innings. Cole Waites — who opened a lot of eyes with Low-A San Jose this season — really struggled, allowing 15 runs in 8 1/3 innings.

Excluding Joey Bart, do you think any top-30 prospects will be on the opening-day roster? — Cameron B.

It’s early and the lockout has paralyzed roster development but who among the prospects should we expect to make the big club coming out of spring training and who do we expect to see with the “big club” during 2022? — Ed C.

Barring injury, Camilo Doval almost certainly will be on the Opening Day roster, and they could carry either Kervin Castro or Gregory Santos in the bullpen, as well, although I think they will explore stretching both out as starters if they don’t need them in their big-league bullpen to start the season. I’d be surprised if they need Sean Hjelle in the rotation on opening day, but, as of right now, he has as good a shot as any competitor for the fifth starter slot. That should change after the lockout, however. Heliot Ramos is another long shot if they don’t add a right-handed outfielder and he has a big spring, but he’d be best served with a few more months in Triple A.

It’s reasonable to expect Hjelle and Ramos to make their major-league debuts at some point in 2022, and Castro and Santos are likely to give the Giants innings at some point, even if it isn’t from the start of the season. Reliever R.J. Dabovich just missed this list, but it wouldn’t be shocking to see him help the big-league bullpen next season, as well. If Diego Rincones isn’t selected in the Rule 5 draft, he’s a candidate to get some outfield at-bats during the second half of the season.

Do you see any long-term first base prospects to eventually replace Brandon Belt in the system? — Don B.

The Giants’ best prospects at first base — Luis Toribio, Logan Wyatt and Garrett Frechette — all had disappointing seasons in 2021, but either of those three could emerge as legitimate first base prospects with a rebound season in 2022. Frankie Tostado held his own in Double A as a 23-year-old but still needs to refine his plate discipline. All four are a few years away from big-league ready, however. David Villar could move from third to first, and his bat should be ready sometime in 2022. LaMonte Wade Jr. may be the best long-term solution there if Belt moves on after 2022, however.

The Giants have a lot of organizational depth, but beyond the top three, it doesn’t seem like there are any potential stars. Do you see the front office trying to thin that depth by trading away some of these prospects for more established major leaguers? — David S.

I think there is more star potential than just among the top-three, but I would agree with you in general that the real strength of the Giants system is the sheer number of quality prospects, which in some ways mirrors their “strength in numbers” approach to their 107-win season. The Giants front office will never shy away from dealing prospects to acquire established major leaguers if it gives them a better chance of winning a title. No one is untouchable — even Marco Luciano — although the return would have to be a significant major-league player under team control for many years.

Will the Giants have to trade either Hunter Bishop or Heliot Ramos in the next few years, in order to have room for Luis Matos and Jairo Pomares long term? With also the possibility for someone else to earn the third outfield job or keep it open for platooning? — Lucas R.

Do you think the Giants being so high on Luis Matos influenced their decision not to go after Starling Marte more aggressively? — Eric P.

One of the most interesting things about baseball is that having too much depth almost never actually ends up being an issue. Injuries or players not developing as expected usually makes it simple to see who should be playing every day and who shouldn’t. That’s why it’s not uncommon to see a team draft two shortstops among their first three picks or with their first pick in back-to-back years. Teams look for the best player they can draft and develop, and worry about how that player will fit on their major-league roster much later on.

That said, if the Giants are fortunate enough that Bishop and Ramos establish themselves as everyday players in the next two seasons and Matos and Pomares are pushing for everyday at-bats in late 2023/2024, it’s reasonable to think that there’d still be plenty of at-bats to go around. Between platoons and the expected addition of the DH, the Giants are likely to carry at least five outfielders on their roster. However, if one of those players would net them a player at a different position of need, I’m sure they wouldn’t hesitate to make a deal.

I would also assume that having a prospect like Matos wouldn’t impact their decision-making on going after a veteran like Starling Marte on the free-agent market because, again, they could easily find at-bats for both if Matos arrived in year two or three of a Marte deal. My guess is the Mets offered way more than the Giants were willing to spend on an outfielder in his 30s, even one as talented as Marte.

Is there any evidence of the superior player development the organization has showcased at big-league level the past two seasons also showing up in minor-league player development? Can you point to specific players as examples of those that benefited? — Sujai C.

Organizations keep their methodology close to the vest for obvious reasons, but I think it’s pretty easy to see how the Giants’ player-development success impacted the big-league team this year. Look at the impact the relievers jumping up from Triple A had this season. All of them got better working with Triple-A pitching coach Garvin Alston and in the Giants pitching development program.

Another specific success story is Ryan Murphy, who was struggling with his slider midseason. The Giants’ player development and analytics teams were able to identify the specific flaw with the pitch that was causing it to be more hittable and they were able to help him correct that flaw midseason. It went from a liability to one of his best pitches as he had an unbelievable second half.

The Giants have poured a ton of resources into hiring top-flight player development and analytics staff at all levels and you can see how well they work together to get great results. It’s not a surprise that the Giants lost hitting coordinator Michael Brdar to the Padres because people around the league were noticing how well the Giants have been teaching every aspect of the game. They will likely see more of their player development staff poached in coming years, but I expect they’ll find new bright minds to replace them.

What’s the expected trajectory for Kai-Wei Teng? He had a couple outstanding starts mixed with some bad ones at Eugene. Do you think the Giants see any potential in him? — Derek Z.

Absolutely. Teng finished the season on a roll, with a 2.60 ERA over the final two months of the season. He has a big, sturdy frame and four usable pitches, although the quality of his secondary stuff can still waver from start to start. Double A will be a big test for him and his consistency from start to start.

Tyler Beede was more stuff than control prior to and post his Tommy John injury. Does Brian Bannister and crew have a track record of improving command with Beede’s profile and history? — Don Long G.

Command is often the last thing to return when a pitcher is coming back from Tommy John surgery, and it wasn’t always Beede’s forte before. He really struggled in 2021, but if the Giants didn’t believe he could get better, he would have been let go in favor of protecting one of the players they left vulnerable to the Rule 5 draft. Bannister’s group has done wonders with a lot of different types of pitchers. It will be interesting to see how Beede looks this spring two years removed from surgery.

Hi Melissa, thanks for doing this! I really have enjoyed your insights into how the Giants and A’s structure trades, and I think the two line up rather well this offseason. What do you think a trade for one of Oakland’s pitchers would look like? I’m thinking Sean Manaea or Chris Bassitt, as I’m guessing Frankie Montas is out of reach.

I’m admittedly also loving the image of Matt Chapman in orange and black… — Daniel H.

The two organizations do match up to a certain extent. I think the A’s will be looking for packages that include at least one high-upside talent a few years away from the big leagues and at least one player with upper-level or some major-league experience. The Giants probably don’t want to lose Thairo Estrada, but he’d fit the A’s pretty well given the current state of their middle infield. They liked him in the Yankees system, too. Some of their relief arms like Kervin Castro, R.J. Dabovich or Gregory Santos could be of interest as secondary pieces, and I’m sure Ryan Murphy would intrigue the A’s, as well.

OK, lightning round…

Approximately where would Caleb Kilian and Alexander Canario (traded to Cubs for Bryant) have appeared on this list? — Tung-On K.

Hi Melissa, curious to know where you would have ranked Caleb Kilian and Alexander (Canario) in your recent rankings. Kilian specifically seems like he has made some strides since the KB trade. — Eric F.

Both would have still been in the top 15. Kilian would have slotted in around the Ryan Murphy/Nick Swiney part of the list. Canario would have fallen somewhere between Jairo Pomares and Aeverson Arteaga.

Thoughts on Ryan Walker? Seems to have a deceptive delivery that would make him attractive as a MLB bullpen arm in a few years? — Ken C.

The Giants love relievers with a little funk in their deliveries who throw a lot of strikes. Walker fits that description. He pitched well in a short stint with Double-A Richmond and should get another look there to start the season.

If the Giants were to make a trade this offseason, who do you imagine they would be trying to deal? — Logan K.

I’m sure they’d like to avoid trading Marco Luciano, Luis Matos, Kyle Harrison or Will Bednar, but, as I said earlier, no prospect is completely off the table. It really depends on the players they’d be trying to acquire.

What’s the plan for Frankie Tostado? — F D.

Tostado had a decent season with Double-A Richmond considering his age and the missed 2020 season, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he repeated that level to start the season to see if he could tighten his approach at the plate.

Melissa, while the prospects seem to have lots of potential, you indicated concerns. Luciano while young does seem to have some difficulty at a higher level. Joey Bart is worrisome since he had difficulties in 2020. Who in this group would you categorize as can’t miss? — John B.

In all my years in doing this, there have been very few can’t-miss prospects. Buster Posey was probably the last Giants can’t-miss. Wander Franco and Adley Rutschman were the only ones from last year’s MLB top-100. Prospects have flaws. It’s how they address them as they advance that determines whether they reach their ceiling or not.

Am I the only one excited about the possibility of Caleb Baragar nailing down the fifth spot in the SF Giants starting pitching rotation? Home grown, 27 year old lefty with explosive stuff, ready for a bust-out year.

On the other side of the spectrum — are we willing to declare Sean Hjelle a bust? Maybe a move to the bullpen (or change of scenery) might help. Heliot Ramos + Mauricio Dubon + Hjelle for Luis Castillo. (Then extend Castillo for 3/$45M.) Who says no? — Jesse S.

Hjelle is far from a bust (and certainly couldn’t be traded for Castillo if he were a bust). He was always projected to be a mid- or backend of the rotation guy, and he’s on that track still.

I thought Baragar was really solid and was surprised he never got another opportunity down the stretch. It will be interesting to see how he is used next season. I’d guess the bullpen is more likely than the rotation, but you never know.

Hunter Bishop missed a lot of time last year, but does he have a chance of getting to the big leagues at some point next year? — Hugh C.

The big goal for Bishop in 2022 will be to stay on the field. He’ll likely start in High A again and maybe reach Double A by the end of the season, but they won’t rush him after he’s missed so much time.

How many potential #1 starters do we have in the minors. I assume Kyle Harrison is viewed with that upside or am I overzealous? — Jesse H.

Prospects who project as No. 1 starters are pretty rare. I would put Harrison in that category given his age and potential for growth. We haven’t seen enough of Will Bednar as a pro yet, but he’s another possibility.

It’s a testament to the Giants minor-league improvement that the organization lost so many players in the minor-league Rule 5 draft and had to leave exposed some quality players in the major-league portion. Do you see the losses significantly damaging the organization’s depth and potential? — Danny G.

The Giants certainly would have preferred to keep most of those players, but they’ll likely make minor-league free agent signings to fill those holes, so the overall depth shouldn’t be impacted too much.

Do you see any prospects who could make the big club in the next couple years capable of adding 15-20+ steals a season? Which outfield prospects have the best arm? — Stephen S.

I’m going to save the best arm answer for a “best tools in the system” piece I’ll run later this offseason. He didn’t make the list but Bryce Johnson could be that stolen base guy if he ever made the Giants roster. The player they selected in the minor-league Rule 5 draft, Michael Gigliotti, is another plus baserunner.

Was the promotion of Taira Uematsu the most naked admission that they are going to go hard after Seiya Suzuki after the lockout is over? — Andrew P.

I’m sure it won’t hurt the pitch, but Uematsu was promoted based on his coaching abilities and the contributions he’s made to the organization in his time with the Giants.

2021 was a great year for the Giants. Is the foundation there to sustain winning or was 2021 just a detour on the road to a rebuild? — Rogers H.

The rebuild is done. That’s not a guarantee that they’ll win 107 games every year, but they have both the active roster to be competitive and the minor-league infrastructure and talent base in place to help the big-league roster that they were looking for. Sometimes these rebuilds move quickly!

(Photo of Seth Corry: Chris Bernacchi / Diamond Images via Getty Images)