NHL teams who are close to the cap are forced to find innovative solutions. The teams who devote resources to both scouting and analytics are finding substantial solutions.
Two examples in the 2021 offseason are Michael Bunting (23 points for the Toronto Maple Leafs at a cost of $950,000) and James Reimer (20 games, 2.68 goals-against-average and a .916 save percentage for the San Jose Sharks on a two-year deal at $2.25 million AAV), both contracts ideal solutions at low dollars that are helping contending teams.
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Some of it is luck, but teams make as many as five or six low bets a year and even one of those bets paying off can make an enormous difference.
Are the Edmonton Oilers part of this brilliant strategy? The evidence suggests the answer is no in one important area, but possibly yes in others.
It’s difficult to go shopping for talent at this time of year, teams are waiting for others to fall away and then acquire talent for the playoffs this spring. Oilers general manager Ken Holland doesn’t have much cap room and his trade pieces are not overwhelming.
What can he do? His solutions are mostly internal auditions, with real innovation required in some areas. Here are possible solutions at each position.
Goaltender
The Oilers are in a tough spot at the position. Mike Smith has played in just six games, and his .923 save percentage in 32 games a year ago seems a distant bell.
Mikko Koskinen stepped in, but the heavy work once again proved too much for him. A save percentage of .900 will only improve as the season goes on with a lesser workload.
Stuart Skinner has been the best in the group this season, his 2.93 goals-against average and .907 save percentage leading the team’s stoppers. He’s a young player and it’s a difficult ask to expect him to grab the job and run with it while playing the majority of the games with so little experience.
There isn’t much available in the marketplace.
The process Holland and his pro scouts (currently in Palm Springs) need to go through is finding an inexpensive but worthwhile bet in the current market.
Kevin Woodley of NHL.com recently speculated about St. Louis Blues goalie Charlie Lindgren, who had a strong showing in the NHL in five games before Christmas (.958 save percentage in those games with the Blues).
Woodley said “(Lindgren) is the kind of guy you might look at if you think his small sample of success this season is a sign he’s figured something out and might be a late bloomer like a Jordan Binnington,” when viewing the goaltending landscape. Woodley was quick to add that no goalie in the AHL is a certainty, but a team like the Oilers might look into Lindgren as a possible option if his skill set matches well with the kinds of chances Edmonton surrenders.
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Lindgren’s cap hit is negligible ($750,000) and at the least he would allow the team to bring Skinner along at a more agreeable pace.
Anton Forsberg is on a one-year deal for $900,000 and playing well for the Ottawa Senators. His five-on-five save percentage (.914) is good and the asset investment shouldn’t be dear. The Senators are playing much better now than earlier in the season (6-3-1 in the last 10 games) but are 22 points behind the final wild-card spot, so a trade with Edmonton for futures could work for both sides. He was on fire (.926 save percentage in seven games) before entering COVID protocol and hasn’t seen game action since Dec. 18, owing mostly to Ottawa’s extremely light schedule.
Left defence
The Oilers play the top players on the roster too much, an issue many teams face when injuries hit. Darnell Nurse is averaging 26:34 a night, Duncan Keith 20:39 and those two totals add up to almost 80 percent of a normal game.
Kris Russell is the veteran third-pairing option, Slater Koekkoek the two-way type, with several prospects (Philip Broberg, Markus Niemelainen, Dmitri Samorukov) pushing.
The solution at this position, at least in the short term, might be the man Edmonton just placed on waivers. William Lagesson had a difficult third period against the Senators on Saturday night, but his expected goals five-on-five (55 percent) suggests things will improve from his current reality (42 percent).
The Oilers appear to have overreacted to a small sample (third period Saturday night) and the 109 minutes five-on-five played by Lagesson this season. If he clears waivers and is sent to Bakersfield, Lagesson will be the best possible recall option among the group of young hopefuls for the Condors.
No. 3 centre
The Oilers found him, it’s Ryan McLeod. His five-on-five scoring rate (1.52) is acceptable for an NHL third-line centre and his on-ice goal differential could break the chain of a long period of miserable results over many seasons.
| Player | Season | GF-GA | Pct |
|---|---|---|---|
2015-16 | 16-38 | 29.6 | |
2016-17 | 25-25 | 50 | |
2017-18 | 32-36 | 47.1 | |
2018-19 | 15-31 | 32.6 | |
2019-20 | 17-37 | 31.5 | |
2020-21 | 8-18 | 30.8 | |
2021-22 | 9-8 | 52.9 |
McLeod has been in the middle most of the year and has lined up with a large group of wingers, but Warren Foegele seems to be one of the wingers who can make things happen with the rookie. McLeod needs time and to improve in important areas, but he’s emerging as a talent the Oilers can count on in the middle. His faceoff percentage (49.3) is impressive for such a young player and his value to the team grows daily.
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Scoring winger
The Oilers appeared close to signing Evander Kane just over one week ago and that option may come available again in the coming days. In the meantime, Brendan Perlini has scored 3-1-4 in the last five games for Edmonton and looks to be receiving an enormous push up the depth chart to the Connor McDavid line.
Edmonton doesn’t have the kind of cap required to get an established scorer, and Perlini has a scorer’s mentality. If he can win the job for a few weeks (until Kane arrives or the deadline) it could help win some big hockey games.
Size on the fourth line
Edmonton’s fourth line bleeds goals and the organization appears to be focused on changing the mix on the unit. So far this season, the fourth line has been devoted to penalty killing and getting caved at five-on-five, but a physical winger may be part of any shuffle Holland is working on in Palm Springs.
The Oilers don’t have a real enforcer type on the roster, with men like Nurse and Zack Kassian playing a rugged game (mostly) within the rules. This player type is often available on waivers and the asset cost is low. However, if the team goes this route, the penalty kill will need to improve quickly.
What does it all mean?
Holland’s media avail early in January spelled out the plan. He talked about filling roster holes and said “the depth of this organization has to be the growth of McLeod, Yamamoto, Bouchard, Broberg, Skinner, Savoie, Bourgault, Petrov, that’s how the best teams do it. It’s homegrown. It’s young players and being patient. We came here and signed Jay Woodcroft, and Woody’s done a great job in developing players down there (in Bakersfield). So I think that’s how you’ve got to get better.”
McLeod is the star pupil at centre; Perlini is getting a push due to a genuine hot streak and his skill set.
The Lagesson waiver wire transaction is a misstep. He’s a left-handed shutdown type, and perhaps more success could be had if the young defender was paired with a veteran on the third pair.
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The search for a physical player on the fourth line likely means a further erosion of actual skill among the bottom-six forwards.
Finally, and most importantly, the goaltending is a loose cannon after every anthem until the final horn.
Lindgren, Forsberg, Lagesson, McLeod, Perlini, some kind of an enforcer.
The plan stated by Holland is rolling out but is imperfect. The Lagesson decision implies the team’s evaluation of its own roster is more reactionary than proactive. Progress is uneven and management’s attachment to the current auditions appears to rise and fall based on the most recent 20 minutes of play.
Losing teams do losing things because everything is frantic. The Oilers recognizing McLeod’s emergence is the one true positive in this year’s search for in-season solutions.
(Photo of Ryan McLeod: Bruce Bennett / Getty Images)
