When October 2021 ended, the Penguins played seven games and Jake Guentzel had one goal, three assists and a bunch of questions about whether he could be a productive scorer without Sidney Crosby or Evgeni Malkin in the lineup. The bitter taste of one goal in six playoff games the year prior still lingered. If Guentzel couldn’t score without Crosby or Malkin, the Penguins were going to be in serious trouble.
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Since November started, Guentzel addressed those concerns by registering a point in 25 of 28 games, accumulating 36 points in that dominant span.
What changed? Some of it can be chalked up to luck and randomness. Even in his quiet October, Guentzel led the way among Penguins forwards in quality looks at the net. Courtesy of Hockey Stat Cards, we get some insight via Guentzel’s rolling Game Score — which shows who had the best game on a particular evening or over a period of time — this season. As you can see, Guentzel’s score was positive through the beginning of the season and began to explode when the points started accumulating.
There’s an obvious explosion after Crosby returned to the lineup full-time in January, but Guentzel hit his scoring stride in mid-November in a great combination of his individual talents and a coaching staff that loves to put him in sneaky positions to score.
How else can we explain Guentzel’s strong run over the past three months?
Let’s start with offensive-zone faceoffs.
Guentzel’s greatest strength has always been his ability to sneak into areas of open ice where he can strike with his quick-release shot. Mike Sullivan and his staff take this to an extreme on faceoffs, where they move Guentzel around so fast the defense rarely has time to react.
In this first clip, Guentzel lines up on the left side of the left circle. Once the puck drops, he flies across the ice to line up for a one-timer opportunity.
When the puck drops, the defense aligns traditionally, expecting a defenseman-to-defenseman pass along the point for a shot attempt. Guentzel makes a rush for the circle on the opposite side of the ice, cutting through bodies off the draw and putting himself directly in open space.
The next clip is fairly similar but on the opposite side. This time, Guentzel is on the left wing in the right circle, but he still makes an immediate rush to the far boards to walk off the half-wall and into the play. This does become a bit broken, as pressure dictates that Bryan Rust, the preferred shooting option, defer back to Guentzel, but it works out courtesy of Guentzel’s release and shooting ability.
The theme is the same — this movement immediately off the draw puts Guentzel in open space with time to make a decision and shoot.
The Penguins coaching staff evolves this play as teams become privy to it. If you see Guentzel on the ice for an offensive zone draw, watch where he goes immediately after the puck is dropped. Chances are, he’ll be taking a trip somewhere — either as a primary shooting option or a decoy to open up space elsewhere.
Guentzel has been generating chances for himself, but he’s also using his vision and passing abilities to generate chances for teammates.
This data directly dispels the narrative that Guentzel is the product of any player. He’s capable of generating chances at a first-line level with or without his traditional centers, and we’ve even seen him do it playing center himself.
The next visualization comes from Corey Sznajder’s All Three Zones project and shows just how involved Guentzel is in chance creation for the Penguins.
In the games Corey has tracked, no Penguins player has a higher total of raw scoring chances per hour than Guentzel at even strength. However, note the x-axis as well. Only Kasperi Kapanen, Evan Rodrigues and Crosby are assisting on more scoring chances per hour. In other words, Guentzel is finding time, space and passing lanes.
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So much of Guentzel’s work in this area comes from the art of deception. This next video clip features Guentzel showing pass to the opposing defensemen and goaltender until he gets them where he wants them. Then, he changes the game completely and shifts into shot mode. Take a look at Guentzel’s eyes, hands and posture. Once the defenseman bites on the pass, Guentzel bears down and shifts into scoring mode.
All great goal-scorers possess that kind of in-flight deception. The ability to hide your hand and force your opponent to make the first move is an essential part of being a perennial scoring threat.
For Guentzel, the deception doesn’t stop there. His shot has some magic to it, and his release has gotten better each year, which is a terrifying prospect. In this clip, Guentzel plays a cross-ice pass off his skate to settle the puck down, but note how fast he’s able to release it from his blade once he takes the shot. The final view is slowed down so you can gather an appreciation for how quickly it comes off of his stick.
Consider this release when you think about Guentzel’s total chances, then consider how bad of an idea it would be to bet against him as a scoring threat in the long haul.
One of the more surprising aspects of Guentzel’s recent run is where and how he’s generating his chances.
The main criticism of Guentzel is that he’s not effective enough in the net-front or battle areas. The data doesn’t agree. In fact, only Dominik Simon and Rust have recovered more dump-ins this season per the All Three Zones project. A great deal of Guentzel’s offense actually comes off of the cycle and forecheck as opposed to the rush, as seen in the next visualization.
Between recovering dump-ins to maintain possession or simply creating offense off of the cycle and the forecheck, Guentzel has evolved and elevated his game. His ability to go in the reverse of the flow of the game plays a big role in his ability to find time and space.
In this next clip, watch Guentzel push off the defender and skate away from the play before looping back in and corralling a loose puck unnoticed. We see this from good goal-scorers all the time. In order to get out of the fray and make yourself unmarked, you have to reverse direction from everyone else.
Rush shots are also a big part of the equation. Guentzel has been operating off the rush in masterful fashion, knowing exactly when to spring himself for odd-man opportunities where he can drive wide and gain speed through the neutral zone.
Again, Guentzel’s good timing comes into play in the next clip. We’ll see him receive a stretch pass up ice and turn on his jets the exact moment the defenseman turns his hips to pivot to him, giving Guentzel the edge he needs to make a pass around the defender and to Jeff Carter’s stick.
All of these elements add up when talking about Guentzel’s ability to consistently create scoring chances for himself and his teammates. Regardless of his linemates or position within the lineup, he’s been consistent. Even when lady luck may not be striking his way, Guentzel accrues enough scoring chances for himself that he’s usually able to prevent a long-lasting drought.
As the Penguins continue to push towards the playoffs, keep an eye on how the coaching staff uses Guentzel as a versatile weapon on faceoffs and at even strength. As his role continues to evolve, he will undoubtedly play a major role down the stretch.
(Photo: David Becker / Associated Press)
