Given that we are in Super Bowl week and things are going to start happening as soon as the window opens for business in the 2022 offseason, we better start moving past the coaching movements and focus on the players. With all due respect to the fine-tuning of staffs that will not change too much, the Cowboys will see most of their gains and losses from personnel. You know I am not shocked to find out Kellen Moore is returning, as I think he requires significant seasoning, but now that this is behind us, let’s get to setting the lineups with as much quality and depth as we can muster.
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For all of the poor memories of 2021, for many — and with good reason — this was still a formidable football team. Dallas won 12 games, something it has accomplished only three times since 1995. It was a very poor January, with demoralizing losses to Arizona and San Francisco, both in Arlington, that pulled back the deceptions of rolling through a fairly soft schedule. There is no shortage of defenders of the NFC East these days in the comments section, but a reasonable person might acknowledge that the 49ers’ easiest divisional game might be tougher than the Cowboys’ hardest divisional game.
Think about that.
For San Francisco, let’s say it is a home game against Russell Wilson and the Seahawks, and for the Cowboys, was it their away game at Washington? You cannot tell me those six layups (two times vs. Washington, Philadelphia and the Giants), mostly positioned down the stretch, prepared Dallas for the street fight in the playoffs against an opponent that is in weekly street fights over the holidays.
The good news is all three NFC East teams appear poised to be better, and that should help the Cowboys strengthen their armor as well.
From 2015 to 2017, Dallas had the same trio of head coach and coordinators with Jason Garrett, Scott Linehan and Rod Marinelli. Then, before 2018, the Cowboys switched the defense to Kris Richard from Seattle (Marinelli retained the title but not the call sheet). In 2019, Moore took over for Linehan. In 2020, it was Mike McCarthy and Mike Nolan, and last season Dan Quinn replaced Nolan. So this will be the first season in five years with no new head coach or coordinators, and we have been prepared for a looming change if it doesn’t bear fruit.
Two other situations will be easier than they were a year ago, and they are connected. Last year at this time, Dallas still did not have its starting QB under contract. The butchering of that nearly three-year ordeal has been discussed at great length, but make no mistake: The front office gambled and lost badly. Dallas can tell itself it knew what it was doing and was pleased with the outcome, but there is little to suggest it did anything but wait as the prices zoomed north. What probably could have been done for less than $30 million a year when Dak Prescott was first eligible for an extension after 2018 surpassed sanity to $40 million a year by the time he signed in spring 2021. Prescott will have to wear that price tag and gambled masterfully to get it, but the dragging of feet and rhetoric of cutting pieces of the pie by the Jones side of the table has been conceded publicly. The Cowboys know they got it wrong. Between that and the ridiculous agreement with Ezekiel Elliott’s agency in 2019, two of their bigger obstacles contractually are now what they must navigate and were self-inflicted.
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The two issues they had in 2021 and don’t have in 2022 are obvious. The Cowboys don’t have anyone hitting the market who can be considered a massive contract situation, and they don’t have to worry about the salary cap going down like it did last season. The league cap had gone up roughly $10 million per team per season since 2013; it sat at $123 million in 2013, and it hit $198 million in 2020. But in 2021, because of empty stadiums due to the COVID-19 pandemic, it dropped temporarily to $182.5 million. With new TV deals and a restabilized future, now it will explode back up to $208 million per team. Of course, teams such as Dallas have already moved money from 2021 into 2022 for that very reason, so there is one thing to keep in mind.
That is, despite the growth of the cap to the tune of about 15 percent, Dallas is well over it. The Cowboys are third in the NFL in worst negative balance on their pay sheets, with only New Orleans and Green Bay in worse positions. There will be haircuts.
Salary-cap casualties
The easiest way to shed cap problems is to say goodbye to large contracts that might not fit in the structure anymore. This doesn’t require detective work beyond searching for the biggest contracts on the team and cross-referencing them for three vital details: age, recent performance levels and the cap savings if one is released versus kept. This is why we were in disbelief when the details of Elliott’s deal came out after his famous holdout of training camp in 2019. His agency was brilliant with the details, and Dallas cannot cut him loose before 2022 without suffering a massive amount of dead cap money. Next year at this time? Perhaps. Now? No way.
This is why you keep hearing about Amari Cooper’s future. Cooper, 27, is still a vital piece, but he did not get language in his deal that promised 2022 when he signed two springs ago. Therefore, his 2022 salary only becomes guaranteed on the fifth day of the new league year (coming up shortly!), and the Cowboys can save a large amount of his $22 million for this season by saying goodbye. They would not be a better football team without him, but the deal makes him the centerpiece of this discussion. According to Spotrac, there is only $6 million in dead money if they release him, and that’s quite a difference.
DeMarcus Lawrence’s situation is a bit less cut and dried: He is $27 million to stay and $19 million in dead money to go. Lawrence is a significant piece of the roster, and the Cowboys would require a major influx of talent to replace him. Lawrence and Cooper are two of Dallas’ best players, but when a franchise pays top dollar to this many players, this is the dance it does every season.
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Zack Martin has pushed enough money into 2022 that there is very little sense in having that discussion — he will be here. Tyron Smith and La’el Collins are also big contracts, but the savings are smaller. Smith’s cap hit is very big if he is a shell of himself, but if he can play, it is the going rate.
Obviously, the Cowboys are probably talking with these guys about modifications to keep the team together, but without knowing which players are out, it is tough to build a shopping list. If Cooper is gone, wide receiver quickly becomes an area of need. If Lawrence is gone and Randy Gregory is an unrestricted free agent, edge vacancies become pressing needs.
Unrestricted free agents
This year, 21 players on the roster are out of contract as unrestricted veterans. In 2019, the Cowboys had the best QB free agent (whom they franchise tagged), one of the best wide receivers (Cooper), one of the best corners (Byron Jones) and an edge rusher who had a huge year (Robert Quinn), so the league was watching Dallas twist in the wind. The Cowboys chose to keep two (Prescott and Cooper) and allowed Jones and Quinn to walk for big money elsewhere.
In 2020, it was significantly easier, beyond Prescott’s long extension, as they had 16 UFAs and none were vital to the operation’s future. They kept a few of them, like Jourdan Lewis and C.J. Goodwin, on short deals, but Aldon Smith, Chidobe Awuzie (who will start in Sunday’s Super Bowl) and Xavier Woods were all starters from 2020 who walked.
This year, there are big numbers of free agents to be, but the significant pieces would be Gregory, tight end Dalton Schultz, safety Jayron Kearse, left guard Connor Williams and wide receiver Michael Gallup, from a workload standpoint. These five were all starters of significance throughout 2021 when available and are considered starters league-wide — perhaps not outstanding starters, but each situation is different and comes with its own debate. I believe Dallas would have all five back if price was no object, but it is and therefore Dallas might have varying price points of local interest. Gallup, in particular, suffered an unfortunate major injury right before he finally had a chance to secure a large deal.
Another wave includes Leighton Vander Esch, Keanu Neal, Damontae Kazee and Malik Hooker. These four are interesting cases and either fringe starters or solid rotational veterans on the defense. But Dallas might let them either walk or find their value and then come back and talk. Surely, the Cowboys will need some safety play, but with costs being prohibitive, they probably need to see what the league will offer.
Finally, we have Cedrick Wilson and Dorance Armstrong, who have served their mandated four years in Dallas after the 2018 draft and are starting to show their abilities on a much higher level. Dallas might wish to keep both, but you never know what one of the 31 other teams might see in them, either. There is very little valuation for players like these that sounds right or wrong. It is nearly a blind auction; there might be significant interest or hardly any outside of the Star. There is no telling.
My goal was to offer clarity, but maybe I just made your head spin. Now that we are looking at draft prospects, we probably need to plan for many directions with this list because there are many moving parts. Dallas has pick Nos. 24, 56 and 88 in the first two days of the draft to get some big pieces, and we must remember it had a large part of its 2021 draft class essentially redshirt. Chauncey Golston, Kelvin Joseph, Jabril Cox, Josh Ball, Nahshon Wright and a few others should move the needle in camp.
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To me, the pressing needs will immediately move to wide receiver and edge if they let Cooper and Lawrence go, but without considering that, I would have to view these tiers of need. I probably wouldn’t pay the going rate to keep Schultz, and my interest in Gregory will probably have to do with my beliefs about his offers elsewhere. I can’t depend on him at big-time money. I hope they keep Kearse, and Williams is likely a no. Gallup back on a reasonable one-year deal to show his worth in 12 months back on the market seems about right.
This will require much more elaboration, but for now, here is the “need” list:
• Tier 1: Edge, starting TE to replace Schultz, one OL starter
• Tier 2: Safety, starting LB, WR depth, DT
• Wish list: future left tackle, future RB
(Top photo of DeMarcus Lawrence: Robin Alam / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)