Heading into Monday’s win over Charlotte, the Raptors were on a five-game win streak. In those wins, played over a week, they played 39 “clutch” minutes.
The NBA defines clutch minutes as any time a game is within five points in the last five minutes. You can do the math: The Raptors averaged nearly eight minutes of clutch time per game during the streak, which necessitates the playing of at least a few overtime periods. (The Raptors played four of those, three coming in the win in Miami that started the streak.) Those 39 minutes were 16 more than any other team — the Heat, naturally — played during that span, and they outscored their opponents, 76-64.
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That makes the arrival of Thursday’s trade deadline complicated. The Raptors are playing their best basketball of the year. A six-game winning streak featuring no victories over dud teams is impressive. Moreover, they are 15-6 since New Year’s Eve, which is the best record in the Eastern Conference. That roughly correlates with when the Raptors started to get healthy, first from their myriad injuries and then from their run-in with COVID-19. All of that has happened with a maximum of a few hundred fans in their home arena. Clearly, the Raptors are showing how good they can be. In the context of the Eastern Conference, in which existential crises are impacting many of the teams expected to compete for a trip to the Finals, that promotes an aggressive push to win now.
Then again, in those 21 games, the Raptors have a net rating of just 4.5 points per 100 possessions. As a comparison, the Celtics, 14-6 over the same span, are at 10.8. The Bucks, just below the Raptors at 3.4, are only 10-8. The Raptors have earned their record, but it would be foolish to believe luck has not played a significant role. Just look at that five-win week.
This is a good team that has the record of a great one so far in 2022. There is the possibility of getting lost amid the immaculate vibes.
“It’s the question of the moment,” Raptors general manager Bobby Webster said on Tuesday, when asked about how the team’s recent play would impact what they do in the next two days. “Two, three weeks ago, before we came together, I think we might have had a different conversation. But I think we’re cognizant of what the team looks like now. But we also realize it could go the other way, so there’s a sense of optimism, but also what’s the overall timeline for this team and what were the expectations coming in. … Are we ahead of schedule, behind schedule or kind of right on schedule?”
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Not that a team shouldn’t let the moment impact your thinking. There is little merit in rigidly sticking to a preconceived notion of how — and how quickly — progress takes place. Hell, the Raptors’ path to a championship was built upon a pair of unlikely wins in Dallas and Oklahoma City that fundamentally altered the way the Raptors’ front office looked at its roster. If not for those games, the Masai Ujiri era likely would have developed in a much different manner.
You do not, however, want to be a prisoner of the moment.
“I think they’re getting more comfortable playing with each other, and that’s a credit obviously to Nick (Nurse) and that group kind of figuring it out here,” Webster said. “As soon as you zoom back and kind of take the one-, two-, three-year kinda picture, that hasn’t changed for us. (The priority) is building a championship team, finding pieces that fit not only in the short term but, obviously, long term — build a contending team again.”
That is the reasonable approach to take. There is an opportunity this year, to be certain, but it might look a lot different if and when Kevin Durant is healthy, if the Bucks are more engaged and if the Heat are fully formed. Webster all but ruled out the possibility of a “major” move, which brings back an old Ujiri-ism: The Raptors want to give this core a platform to succeed or fail on its own merits, with some work on the periphery to help prop them up. While the Raptors might not be a legitimate contender to come out of the conference, they are certainly good enough to scare the holy hell out of a team or two that are, and there is plenty of value in getting this group that experience.
With that said, there are some obvious constraints, and flexibility, which define the Raptors’ activity.
First and probably foremost, the Raptors are barely under the luxury-tax threshold. As a fan, it is easy to scoff at this, but the Raptors have not had full home crowds for the better part of two seasons, and the Nets, Bucks, Warriors and more are among the teams going to make this year’s tax payout the biggest in league history. However, you only get your share of the tax payout if your team is not paying it itself. Whatever happens, the Raptors are not going to be in the business of taking on any more money at this year’s deadline than they are sending out.
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However, that does not extend to future seasons. The Raptors have about $112.5 million in committed salary for next year, which covers their current starting five, as well as reserves Precious Achiuwa, Khem Birch, Malachi Flynn and Svi Mykhailiuk, assuming the latter exercises his player option for 2022-23. The Raptors likely will keep Dalano Banton on his lightly guaranteed deal. Last week, our Shams Charania reported that the league believes the luxury tax will be near $147 million next season. That means the Raptors can trade Goran Dragic (at $19.44 million this year, expiring after the season) for a player who makes less this year, but who is owed money next year. Even if the Raptors add a player making $20 million next season, they could still use the full midlevel exception to add to their roster in the offseason, or re-sign Chris Boucher and use the draft, other exceptions and minimum slots to enhance their roster.
In other words, they are in a use-it-or-lose it spot with Dragic’s salary slot.
“There are not many (contracts like Dragic’s) around the league,” Webster said. “So you get to be in conversations that you typically aren’t (in).”
The sweet spot would probably be a player who is signed only through next season, since that is when Fred VanVleet and Gary Trent Jr. can both opt out of their current contracts, changing the Raptors’ long-term salary picture. As Webster pointed out, they could possibly take a contract that goes beyond 2023, because you don’t want to be too afraid to add a player you like because of the fear of a shifting cap picture since the league is constantly changing, but it would certainly complicate things down the line.
The quality of players — and the contracts they are attached to — will come down to whether the Raptors are willing to attach draft picks or prospects to Dragic’s contract. Straight-up trades for players like Washington’s Spencer Dinwiddie or New York’s Evan Fournier might work, because those teams might regret the contracts to the point where simply not having them on the books in the future is all the reward they need to make a deal. To move up a rung in terms of fit or talent — Houston’s Eric Gordon, San Antonio’s Jakob Poeltl or Derrick White, Orlando’s Gary Harris — would require some draft compensation. Two players who might have been fits for the Raptors, Indiana’s Myles Turner and Sacramento’s Harrison Barnes, became less likely to be traded because of Tuesday’s Kings-Pacers blockbuster that had neither team fully embrace the future at the expense of the present.
Any depth, particularly playmaking depth, would help ease the load on VanVleet and Pascal Siakam.
In my trade submissions mailbag, many readers suggested that Dragic could be moved to a team that could use him now. While that is possible, it sounds more and more likely that he will be acquired by a team with the intention of buying him out.
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“They’re not revealing a ton, but I think they kinda know the game we’re in and the writing on the wall,” Webster said of his conversations with Dragic and his representation. “I think they’ll probably keep those cards close to their vest as far as what’s an ideal outcome for them.”
In short, unless a team knows Dragic would play for them — Dallas or maybe some other desirably located contenders — it would be hard for a winning team to make a move for him assuming that he will. That somewhat limits the number of potential partners there will be for the Raptors. Given there are still potential savings and draft compensation, there still should be plenty of action around Dragic.
The guess here is that the Raptors will treat the deadline much like the draft. That is, they are far more likely to target the best player available (while factoring in the best price) than they are to zero in on a specific type of player.
“Do we need another one of those multipositional wings? Do we need a more traditional big? Or do we need another ballhandler?” Webster said, implying that the answer to all three was affirmative. “And if you could solve all of those with one, you would, but you can’t. So, is that three (players)? Can you combine two of those into one player? Do you need to go get two players, or are you content to just let this thing grow and maybe one of the guys off the bench, one of the young development players, turns into that?”
That is Webster’s answer to the quandary laid out up top. It is easy to imagine the Raptors’ lack of true centre exploited in a series against Philadelphia and Joel Embiid. However, overpaying for the wrong player just to address that one concern would be the biggest mistake the Raptors could make right now. In a way, the Raptors should hope they get that series, if only because it would give them the most valuable information on their experimental roster.
“I don’t think anyone was saying that the roster construction when we first did it was set in stone,” Webster said. “I think we’re always looking at those other options. I think it was important for us to at least see what this type of roster would look like. And so, because of a number of things, we haven’t had everybody healthy.
“(Now) they’re picking up the schemes really well; they’re playing together, they’re on a string on both ends. I think people know where to look for guys on offence, where their spots are, but … by no means do we think that this is the final look. I think that’s why this week’s important for us if we can find a player that would complement that group.”
Like the Raptors themselves, that player doesn’t have to look any particular way.
(Photo of Goran Dragic: Cole Burston/Getty Images)
