A popular exercise during this juncture in the NFL offseason is to predict what teams might do in free agency, which begins March 16 — two days after the negotiating window for teams to talk to representatives of pending free agents.
Those prediction pieces are all well and good, but acquiring players via trade or free agency costs money (news flash, right?), serious money if you’re a team like the Panthers in need of a quarterback and a left tackle.
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The Panthers are around the middle of the pack in terms of salary-cap space, starting Thursday with $16.6 million, according to Overthecap.com’s projection. That does not include the team’s two-year, $9 million extension with linebacker Frankie Luvu, who will make $5 million this year, according to a league source.
The Panthers figure to use the No. 6 pick in the draft to knock off one of their big needs. And general manager Scott Fitterer said in January he expects to have around $28 million in cap space when all is said and done.
Still, the Panthers would need to create significantly more cap room if they were to trade for Houston quarterback Deshaun Watson, whose fully guaranteed salary and cap number would be $35 million in 2022. Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins also is set to make $35 million this year, although an acquiring team almost certainly would require Minnesota to pay a chunk of his salary. Jimmy Garoppolo is a little less costly with a base salary of $24.2 million.
There are no bargains at the top of the left tackle market, either, with the Saints’ Terron Armstead projected to receive a contract with an average annual value of $23.9 million and the Jags’ Cam Robinson coming in at $16.8 million a year, according to Spotrac.
Even if the Panthers take one of the top tackles in the draft, they still have work to do to carve out cap space for a quarterback and a couple of other offensive linemen, while addressing other positions (linebacker, safety) and re-signing some of their own free agents.
The Athletic looks at some of the cost-cutting moves the Panthers could make — in the form of releases, trades, extensions or contract restructures — and seven players who could be impacted:
(2022 salary-cap hits/dead money via Over the Cap; players listed in order of most savings to least)
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WR DJ Moore
2022 cap number: $11.1 million
2022 dead money if traded: $0
Cap savings if traded: $11.1 million
DJ Moore is precisely the type of player the Panthers should build around — an unassuming, hard worker who can make both the tough catches in traffic, as well as the big plays down the field. Of course, those traits — and Moore’s youthfulness (he turns 25 in April) — also make him a valuable trade chip on a team that doesn’t have many. Fitterer has said he would take calls on every player on his roster. But it’s hard to imagine that conversation lasting very long if a team was asking about Moore.
Forecast: In the same January press conference in which Fitterer said he’d always take calls, he also called Moore “one of the foundation pieces on our team” and said he was hopeful the two sides could get a long-term deal done. Would the Panthers listen if Houston wanted Moore as part of a Watson package? Maybe. But then who would Watson be throwing to exactly?
LB Shaq Thompson
2022 cap number: $18.2 million
2022 dead money: $12.5 million
Cap savings if cut: $5.7 million
Shaq Thompson is coming off one of his best seasons, in which he finished with 100-plus tackles for the third year in a row, while adding two sacks and a career-best two interceptions. But Thompson has the Panthers’ third-highest cap number, behind only right tackle Taylor Moton ($19.2 million) and quarterback Sam Darnold ($18.9 million). Former general manager Marty Hurney extended Thompson in December 2019, a month before Matt Rhule was hired. But there’s no reason to think Rhule would move on from Thompson, especially with no true successor behind him.
Forecast: The 27-year-old Thompson is one of the Panthers’ leaders and has remained productive, even if he’s never been to a Pro Bowl. Having traded Denzel Perryman and with Jermaine Carter a pending free agent, the Panthers need Thompson. But a traditional restructuring, which would free up $5 million, makes sense.
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WR Robby Anderson
2022 cap number: $16.8 million
2022 dead money (if post-June 1 cut): $11.8 million
Cap savings if post-June 1 cut: $5 million
Robby Anderson’s production plummeted in 2021, right after Rhule and Fitterer signed the former Jet to a two-year, $29.5 million extension. Anderson, whose “chemistry” with Darnold was the most overblown story of training camp, posted career lows in several major receiving categories a year after reaching career highs in most of them. Anderson’s 48.2 catch percentage was the third-worst mark in the league. Still, the Panthers would have to eat too much money by cutting Anderson so soon after his extension, even if they were to spread out the cap hit with a post-June 1 designation.
Forecast: The Panthers have to hope Anderson has a bounce-back year with a new receivers coach, new offensive coordinator and, maybe, a new quarterback. Otherwise, he’ll be back on this list a year from now when the Panthers can realize $13 million in cap savings, with only $3.8 million in dead cap, by releasing Anderson.
CB A.J. Bouye
2022 cap number: $4.7 million
2022 dead money: $1.2 million
Cap savings if cut: $3.5 million
A.J. Bouye was the new guy in the Panthers’ defensive backs rooms when they signed him to a two-year deal last offseason. Then they kept adding other new guys, which — coupled with Bouye’s recent injury history — could make him expendable. Bouye was mostly effective in a nickel role when he played last season, when he again failed to make it through a full season. Bouye missed seven games — two while finishing out a PED suspension and five due to injury — and he’ll turn 31 during training camp.
Forecast: The Panthers have a couple of key free-agent cornerbacks and likely will have to choose between Donte Jackson and Stephon Gilmore. Even if one of those two goes elsewhere, the Panthers should have enough depth after drafting Jaycee Horn and Keith Taylor last year and trading for former first-round pick C.J. Henderson in September. Bouye looks like a pretty obvious cap casualty.
DE Morgan Fox
2022 cap number: $5.6 million
2022 dead money: $2.5 million
Cap savings if cut: $3.1 million
Morgan Fox was a versatile addition after the former Ram signed a two-year, $8.1 million deal with Carolina last offseason. Fox, who can play both inside and outside, had 34 tackles, 1 1/2 sacks and seven quarterback hits, which ranked fourth on the team. But Fox’s arrival cut into the playing time of Yetur Gross-Matos, the 2020 second-round pick who also brings position flexibility to the defensive line. Gross Matos’ 2 1/2-sack game against Buffalo in Week 15 surpassed Fox’s season total and earned him a starting spot the next two weeks before Gross-Matos landed on the reserve/COVID-19 list before the season finale.
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Forecast: Panthers defensive coordinator Phil Snow likes guys who can play multiple spots, and Fox was dependable on and off the field in his first season in Charlotte. But at some point, the Panthers have to get a longer look at Gross-Matos, whose playing time decreased in 2021 from his rookie year.
OL Dennis Daley
2022 cap number: $2.57 million
2022 dead money: $32,000
Cap savings if cut: $2.54 million
Dennis Daley has started 21 games, including nine last season, since the Panthers drafted him in the sixth round out of South Carolina in 2019. He can play both guard and tackle, which is valuable on any team. But Daley’s progress feels like it’s plateaued with Carolina. And on a team looking to improve across its offensive line, that would seem to put Daley squarely on the chopping block.
Forecast: The Panthers have made it clear they intend to overhaul the line after allowing 52 sacks in 2021, fifth most in the NFL. That means — with the exception of Moton and 2021 third-round pick Brady Christensen — no one should be considered safe. That would be true regardless, but it’s especially so after Rhule fired offensive line coach Pat Meyer and brought in James Campen, who was with Ben McAdoo in Green Bay.
OL Cam Erving
2022 cap number: $6.5 million
2022 dead money: $4.5 million
Cap savings if cut: $2.0 million
After the Panthers signed Cam Erving to a two-year, $10 million deal last year on the first day of free agency, they reasoned that Erving would represent a good value if the journeyman wound up as the starting left tackle. He did, but it wasn’t. Erving missed eight of 17 games due to an assortment of neck and calf injuries. And when he did play, he was a big part of the protection problems, allowing 31 pressures in only 348 pass-blocking snaps, according to Pro Football Focus.
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Forecast: Erving has played every position up front, and that’s where his value lies. Erving, who turns 30 in August, is not a bad option as a spot starter at guard or tackle. But he demonstrated that he cannot be counted on to protect a quarterback’s blind side for any length of time. The Panthers wouldn’t realize a huge savings by releasing Erving, and may decide he’s worth keeping around in a backup role as a swing tackle.
(Top photo of Robby Anderson: Jared C. Tilton / Getty Images)
