The NCAA Tournament is back — and back to normal. Teams are headed to eight different sites, fans are back in the arenas, and the games will be played on their traditional days. That includes Tuesday’s First Four doubleheader beginning at 6:40 p.m. ET on truTV. People like to deride these so-called play-in games, but they have produced some dramatic moments over the years. They’re also a delectable appetizer in advance of the main course that will be served up on Thursday.
One tradition that never changes is my uncanny accuracy picking games in this tournament against the spread. I’ll be doing so again this year, beginning with the First Four games. All lines are via BetMGM. Let the Madness begin!
Texas Southern (-3.5) vs. Texas A&M Corpus Christi, Tuesday, 6:40 p.m. I like teams with March Madness experience, so I’m swayed that Texas Southern has been to six of the last eight tourneys. The Tigers’ coach Johnny Jones, is a wily veteran who previously spent five years as head coach at LSU. They won at Florida in December, so they should have plenty of confidence. Texas Southern can be sloppy with the ball (333rd nationally in turnover percentage), but it’s also an excellent rebounding team (25th in offensive rebound percentage), and Texas A&M Corpus Christi is ranked 334th in height on KenPom.com. The Islanders did well to win the Southland tourney, but they came in as the fourth seed following a 7-7 regular-season record. Teams that were solid all season are a better choice when going up against teams that were just OK but got hot at the end. The pick: Texas Southern
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Indiana (-3.5) vs. Wyoming, Tuesday, 9:10 p.m. The Hoosiers were down 17 points to Michigan with 11 minutes to play in their Big Ten tourney quarterfinal. If they had lost that game, they’d be in the NIT right now. Give them due credit for mounting an extraordinary comeback and then squeaking by Illinois, 65-63, in their next game, but I still don’t trust this team, and frankly, I haven’t all season. The difference of late has been point guard Xavier Johnson, the 6-3 junior transfer from Pitt who is averaging 18.1 points on 45.2 percent 3-point shooting over his last eight games. Wyoming, however, has seen plenty of potent scorers in the Mountain West this season, and the Cowboys have usually found a way to keep them in check. They also have a legitimate post scorer in 6-9 sophomore Graham Ike who is a mirror image of Indiana’s Trayce Jackson-Davis. Besides averaging 19.6 points and 9.7 rebounds, Ike also ranks third in the country in fouls drawn per 40 minutes, according to KenPom.com. Throw in the toughness and versatility of 6-7 senior guard Hunter Maldonado, and I think the Cowboys squeak by with a win. The pick: Wyoming
Wright State (-1.5) vs. Bryant, Wednesday, 6:40 p.m. This game is not lacking for moxie. Wright State knocked off top-seeded Cleveland State in the Horizon League semifinals, and then came back from 16 points down to beat Northern Kentucky, 72-71, in the final. The Raiders are a high-scoring team that went for 80 or more points 11 times this season. Bryant is led by the nation’s top scorer, 6-5 senior guard Peter Kiss, who averages 25.1 points per game and likes to flex, preen and do push-ups after he scores. Neither of these teams are invested at the defensive end, which should make for a fast-paced, entertaining game. The main difference could be at the 3-point line. Wright State averages 19.2 attempts per game and converts 32.9 percent. Bryant attempts 27.2 3s per game and converts 30.8 percent. That’s not efficient, but it is effective, so I’ll go with the team that lets the long shots fly. The pick: Bryant
Rutgers (-1.5) vs. Notre Dame, Wednesday, 9:10 p.m. The result of this game will depend largely on which Rutgers team shows up. Will it be the one that lost to Lafayette and UMass early in the season and dropped four of six down the stretch? Or the one that beat Wisconsin on the road and scored home wins over Purdue, Iowa, Ohio State and Illinois? I’d feel better about picking the Scarlet Knights if this game were being played at the RAC, but their rugged, defense-first style of play should travel pretty well. Notre Dame has an efficient offense, but the Irish were dead last in the ACC in offensive rebound percentage. That leaves them very little margin for error. I also like the matchup inside of Rutgers’ shot-blocking demon Cliff Omoruyi against Notre Dame center Paul Atkinson, a 6-10 senior transfer from Yale. And while the Irish have a talented guard in Blake Wesley, who leads them at 14.5 points per game, he is a volume shooter, and a freshman to boot. This game is going to be played in the mud, which is just how Rutgers likes it. The pick: Rutgers
(Top photo of Indiana’s Xavier Johnson: Justin Casterline / Getty Images)