NFL Draft analysis: Where do the defensive standouts come from?

Earlier this week, we looked at some of the position-by-position trends in a sample of every Pro Bowler/All-Pro over the last 10 years and what it said about some of this year’s NFL Draft prospects on offense. Now we turn our attention to defense.

Once again, here’s how the positions lined up against one another in terms of when the best players in the league were drafted, where they came from and how old they were upon entering the league. And once again, thanks to Sports Reference, Mockdraftable and, most importantly, The Beast.

Edge rusher

There have been 45 Pro Bowl/All-Pro edge rushers over the past 10 seasons, more than at any other position. So we have a little more to work with sample-wise. Still, as you might expect given the importance of the position, the overwhelming majority of the league’s best edge rushers were drafted in the first round (60 percent of them, which ranks behind only quarterback and offensive tackle). Unlike those other two premium positions, though, there have been a healthy amount of Day 3 and undrafted finds. Eleven Pro Bowl or All-Pro edge rushers were drafted in the fourth round and later or not at all compared to only seven who were drafted in Rounds 2 and 3.

2022 draft outliers 

• Presumptive No. 1 pick Aidan Hutchinson’s 32 1/8-inch arms would be the third-smallest compared to the 32 elite edge rushers whose arms were measured prior to the draft. The only smaller arms belong to Melvin Ingram (31 1/2 inches) and Trey Hendrickson (32 inches), both of whom are shorter than Hutchinson. It’s impossible to know if that will affect Hutchinson as a professional, but there hasn’t been a premier edge rusher with his build in recent history. Late-round prospect Tyree Johnson of Texas A&M would have the smallest arms in the sample.

• Meanwhile, Hutchinson’s apparent competition for the top spot, Travon Walker, has 35 1/2-inch arms that would make for the second-longest in the Pro Bowl/All-Pro group behind only Chandler Jones. Walker’s impressive pre-draft process also includes what would be the second-best 40-yard dash (4.51 seconds, behind only Von Miller) and the second-best 10-yard split (1.54 seconds, behind only Cliff Avril).

This is why Walker is billed as such a projection versus production prospect. His season-high sack total at Georgia was six. Of the 45 edge rushers in the sample, only five had fewer sacks in their best season. Only two of them, Ezekial Ansah and Jones, were first-round picks. In this class, USC’s Drake Jackson (high of 5.5 sacks) and Ohio State’s Tyreke Smith (high of three sacks) are also hampered by production questions. Penn State’s Jesse Luketa spent more time at linebacker than defensive end in college, but his 0.5 career sacks are eye-popping.

• Three edge rushers with draftable Brugler grades would have the smallest hands in the sample: Michigan’s David Ojabo, Virginia Tech’s Amaré Barno and Minnesota’s Esezi Otomewo. Barno is a true outlier prospect. He would have the fastest 40-yard dash, fastest 10-yard split and best broad jump of the sample.

• Houston’s Logan Hall and Florida’s Zachary Carter are both considered tweeners who might slide inside to defensive tackle at times in the NFL. Their athletic testing numbers tell that story, too. They both have 40-yard dash times that would fall at the bottom of the Pro Bowl/All-Pro sample while Hall has what would be the worst broad jump and Carter has what would be the worst vertical jump. Each of those results would fall well within the middle range of defensive tackle testing.

Luketa, South Carolina’s Kingsley Enagbare, Ohio State’s Smith and Utah’s Mike Tafua also have bottom-tier 40-yard dashes. Enagbare also has what would be the second-worst three-cone time of the sample, which would be a red flag for teams like the Eagles that have historically valued that drill for pass rushers in particular.

• I was surprised to learn that only 18 of the 45 Pro Bowl/All-Pro edge rushers declared for the draft as underclassmen, though those numbers increase at the top of the draft (nine of the 13 top-10 picks in the group were underclassmen, for instance). Yet, the edge rushers ranked as the fourth-youngest position as a whole. That’s because most of the senior edge rushers entered the league at 22 or 23. Only three of the 45 turned 24 during their rookie season: Ansah, the fifth overall pick who was late to football; fifth-round pick Matt Judon, who played at a lower collegiate level; and undrafted Michael Bennett.

This suggests that the edge rushers in this class who will turn 24 as rookies — Minnesota’s Boye Mafe, Miami of Ohio’s Dominique Robinson, Cincinnati’s Myjai Sanders, Alabama’s Christopher Allen and Oklahoma’s Isaiah Thomas — have an uphill climb. Texas A&M’s Michael Clemons will turn 25, which is without recent precedent for a future Pro Bowler.

Checks all the boxes

Oregon’s Kayvon Thibodeaux fits the physical and production profile of a future Pro Bowler precisely, while Florida State’s Jermaine Johnson, Purdue’s George Karlaftis and Penn State’s Arnold Ebiketie each lean to a few extremes within the sample. Kentucky’s Josh Paschal, projected as a third-round pick by Brugler, fits the part as well.

Potential late-round sleeper 

Western Kentucky’s DeAngelo Malone is a two-time Conference USA player of the year who tested well and projects as a speed rusher with some run defense questions. Writes Brugler, “he is a quarterback hunter with the athletic traits and God-given acceleration to make plays. He can be an effective role player as a stand-up edge rusher or linebacker who will play primarily on passing downs.”

Only 73.3 percent of the Pro Bowl/All-Pro edge rushers came from Power 5 schools, the second-lowest percentage among the positions. Five of the 11 Day 3 or undrafted future Pro Bowl/All-Pro edge rushers came from smaller schools. For an even later sleeper, Coastal Carolina’s Jeffrey Gunter is of interest.

Defensive tackle 

Defensive tackle has the fourth-highest median pick and first-round percentage for its Pro Bowlers/All-Pros. It also ranks fourth in Power 5 percentage as only four Pro Bowl/All-Pro defensive tackles from the last 10 seasons played at a non-Power 5 school (Dontari Poe, Muhammad Wilkerson, Akiem Hicks and Damon Harrison). It stands to reason that it’s harder for players with requisite defensive tackle size to go under the radar throughout college.

2022 draft outliers

• Only three of the 26 defensive tackles in the sample turned 24 during their rookie NFL season. Of those three, one was drafted in the second round (Kawann Short), one in the fourth round (Henry Melton) and one went undrafted (Harrison). As a projected first-round pick who turned 24 in March, Georgia’s Devonta Wyatt looks like something of a dice roll. Narrow the sample of elite defensive tackles down to just those who were drafted in the first round and only three of the 15 were older than 22 as a rookie.

Beyond the first round, Alabama’s Phidarian Mathis, LSU’s Neil Farrell Jr., UCF’s Kalia Davis, Iowa State’s Eyioma Uwazurike and Ohio State’s Haskell Garrett are also overagers.

• Adding to the concerns about Wyatt is the lack of sack production he shares with teammate Jordan Davis. Let’s acknowledge off the bat that this is a bit of a self-selecting sample because run-stuffing nose tackles are less likely to make the Pro Bowl if they lack gaudy sack totals. But there isn’t much precedent for defensive tackles with limited sack production in college finding it in the pros. Of the six defensive tackles in the sample who never had at least four sacks in a single college season, only Chris Jones and Grady Jarrett turned into pass-rushing threats at the next level while the likes of Haloti Ngata and Dontari Poe stuck to their pre-draft profiles. Worse, Wyatt and Davis both had four seasons to prove their pass-rushing bona fides while three of the aforementioned six were underclassmen.

So the teams willing to draft Wyatt (high of 2.5 sacks), Davis (high of 2.5 sacks), Arkansas John Ridgeway (high of two sacks), Farrell Jr. (high of three sacks) and UCLA’s Otito Ogbonnia (high of two sacks) have to accept that pass-rush production might never come.

• Davis, otherwise, had an outstanding pre-draft process. At 6-6, 341 pounds, he ran what would be the fourth-best 40-yard dash in the sample (4.78) while topping J.J. Watt’s high-water mark for the best broad jump by three inches (123 to 120). It’s easy to see why teams might be willing to bet on his upside. But while it’s true that Georgia’s scheme probably has a lot to do with the limited shared sack production for Wyatt, Davis and Walker, they’re all projections at this point.

• Farrell Jr. is hovering around a few low bars. In addition to being old, he has close to the shortest arms in the sample, what would be the slowest 40-yard dash, what would be the worst vertical jump, what would be the second-fewest bench-press reps and by far the worst three-cone time.

• Ridgeway also has a few marks against him, including a slow 40-yard dash, a bad broad jump and a bad three-cone. Uwazurike, Ogbonnia and Texas A&M’s Jayden Peevy all fall below the previous 40-yard dash mark as well (Hicks’ 5.23 seconds). Mathis’ 23.5-inch vertical jump falls below Chris Jones’ previous low bar of 24.5 inches.

• Other than Davis, few of this year’s crop of defensive tackles really flirted with the high bars in any of the athletic testing. But kudos to Kentucky’s Marquan McCall, who would be the heaviest future Pro Bowler/All-Pro defensive tackle at 354 pounds.

• Only a few defensive tackles in the class did the bench press in the pre-draft process, but Texas A&M’s DeMarvin Leal’s 17 reps would be the second-worst in the sample ahead of only Calais Campbell’s 16.

Checks all the boxes

Oklahoma’s Perrion Winfrey, Brugler’s No. 4 defensive tackle, fits neatly in each parameter and has 35 1/4-inch arms that would tie him with Wilkerson for the longest in the sample. Connecticut’s Travis Jones, No. 3 in the group according to Brugler, looks the part too and has the sack production his counterpart Davis lacks, albeit against weaker competition.

Potential late-round sleeper 

All five of the Day 3 hits in the defensive tackle group came from Power 5 schools. If you’re interested in the solid athletic tester, Tennessee’s Matthew Butler might be of interest after posting the second-best vertical and broad-jump numbers in the class. Iowa State’s Uwazurike ran a slow 40-yard dash but jumped well and had a nine-sack season in 2021.

Linebacker 

One of the first numbers that jumped out as a surprise when putting this together was the low percentage of Pro Bowl/All-Pro linebackers who were not drafted in the first three rounds. Linebacker carries a perception (at least in Philadelphia) of being unpredictable, and the upside of a Day 3 linebacker seems higher than most other positions. But only three of the 29 Pro Bowl/All-Pro linebackers over the past 10 seasons were drafted on Day 3 or not at all, the lowest percentage of any position. In fact, until De’Vondre Campbell earned All-Pro status last year, there hadn’t been a Pro Bowl/All-Pro linebacker drafted in Rounds 4 through 7 at all, with only undrafted players Lorenzo Alexander and Vontaze Burfict holding down the fort for the players selected later. And there have only been four third-round future Pro Bowlers/All-Pro.

It’s a similar proposition here, then, as it is with running back. If you want an elite player, draft him early. But you just might not think it’s all that important to have one.

2022 draft outliers 

• Pardon the repetition on age, but here we go again. Only two of the 29 linebackers in the sample turned 24 as a rookie, both of them second-round picks (Jamie Collins and Sean Lee). That’s a concerning flag for Brugler’s No. 1-ranked linebacker, Utah’s Devin Lloyd, who turns 24 in September. Later in the draft, North Carolina’s Jeremiah Gemmel and Texas A&M’s Aaron Hansford are in the 24 club, while Nebraska’s Jojo Domann turns 25 in July and can finally rent a car without paying a premium.

• Montana State’s Troy Andersen, who only became a full-time linebacker in 2021, did well for himself in the pre-draft process. His 4.42-second 40-yard dash would be third-best in the sample behind only Micah Parsons and Ryan Shazier (or just ahead of Bobby Wagner if you want to focus only on off-ball linebackers), his 10-yard split would be tied for the top mark, his three-cone (6.77) would be best in the group and his short shuttle would be third-best.

Can he play football? Brugler gives him a second/third-round grade and writes “Andersen has sloppy tackling/take-on habits and shows a marginal feel in coverage, but he is a toolsy size/speed athlete with the competitive toughness and versatility that give him legitimate NFL upside.”

• Alabama’s Christian Harris was also a standout tester with what would be the third-fastest 40-yard dash and the second-best broad jump. Georgia’s Channing Tindall ran a 4.47-second 40-yard dash and his 42-inch vertical jump would tie Shazier for the top mark in the sample.

• Short-arm parade for Domann, Wisconsin’s Leo Chenal, Baylor’s Terrel Bernard, Oklahoma State’s Malcolm Rodriguez, Wisconsin’s Jack Sanborn and Utah’s Nephi Sewell, who each fall at or below the previous low at the position (31 inches). Penn State’s Brandon Smith has what would be the longest arms in the group at 34 5/8 inches and posted what would be the third-best short shuttle in the sample.

• Oklahoma State’s Rodriguez put up 36 bench-press reps at his pro day, per Brugler, which would be the most for a linebacker in the sample. Wisconsin’s Chenal was not far behind with 34.

Checks all the boxes 

In this case, the most important box is “expected to be drafted in the first two rounds.” With that qualifier, Georgia’s Quay Walker, Montana’s Chad Muma and Alabama’s Harris look like the cleanest prospects. Nakobe Dean, who could be the first linebacker drafted, did not participate in any pre-draft athletic testing.

Potential late-round sleeper 

This one might not even be worth the shot in the dark, but how about Indiana’s Micah McFadden, who was a three-year starter and tested well enough, including a 6.88-second three-cone time at his pro day that is second in the sample only to Anthony Barr. McFadden has a fifth-round grade from Brugler, who writes, “McFadden is very well-strapped together and one of the better downhill linebackers in this draft class, but his athletic and coverage limitations take excitement away from his pro evaluation.”

Cornerback 

On average, more cornerbacks are drafted each year than any other position (sometimes wide receiver takes the top spot, but it’s always those two). And yet, of the 38 Pro Bowl/All-Pro cornerbacks from the last 10 seasons, only four were drafted in Rounds 3 to 7 (all of them in Rounds 4 and 5). There hasn’t even been a single one drafted in the third round! But even with the high volume of drafted cornerbacks, there have been more undrafted future Pro Bowlers/All-Pros at cornerback (six) than any other position (tackle and edge each have three). So the dumbed-down retro-fitted strategy here is to draft a corner in the first two rounds or just hope you get lucky in undrafted free agency.

2022 draft outliers 

• Someone wake up Chip Kelly because we’re about to talk about cornerback arm length. Stephon Gilmore, Johnathan Joseph and Alterraun Verner all share the low bar of 31-inch arms among the 25 players in the sample who were measured pre-draft. If you’re dogmatic about cutting out everyone whose arms measured shorter, say goodbye to Washington’s Trent McDuffie, LSU’s Derek Stingley Jr., Florida’s Kaiir Elam, Auburn’s Roger McCreary, Houston’s Marcus Jones, Cincinnati’s Coby Bryant, Sam Houston State’s Zyon McCollum and Alabama’s Jalyn Armour-Davis, in addition to several lower-ranked prospects. That’s eight of Brugler’s top 15 at the position lopped off in one fell swoop.

Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner, meanwhile, has what would be the longest arms in the sample (33 1/2 inches), as does Texas-San Antonio’s Tariq Woolen (33 5/8 inches).

• Woolen is an interesting case. At 6-4, he’s taller than any of the Pro Bowl/All-Pro corners in recent history. He also ran a 4.26-second 40-yard dash that tops Champ Bailey’s 4.28-second mark atop the group. He also has what would be the second-best vertical jump. As Brugler writes, “Woolen will require time to develop his technique and recognition both in coverage and run support, but he has a rare package of traits worth betting on with his height, length and speed.”

• If not for Woolen, McCollum would be the standout small-school corner from the pre-draft process. His 6.48-second three-cone time is better than the previous best in the sample (Gilmore’s 6.61 seconds) and pairs well with his 4.33-second 40-yard dash and other high-end measurables.

• There are several bad short shuttles in this cornerback draft class relative to the sample. The previous low belongs to Joe Haden’s 4.34 seconds. Fayetteville State’s Joshua Williams, Armour-Davis, Baylor’s Kalon Barnes, South Carolina State’s Cobie Durant and USC’s Chris Steele all shuttled slower. Armour-Davis, Barnes and Bryant all fell below the three-cone threshold as well.

Checks all the boxes 

If we stick to only Brugler’s top-10 corners whose arms fall within the current parameters, it’s just Clemson’s Andrew Booth Jr., Washington’s Kyler Gordon and Nebraska’s Cam Taylor-Britt. Loosen those prerequisites and Gardner, Stingley, McDuffie and Elam fit the bill.

Potential late-round sleeper 

Here’s where we can get a little weird. Of the six undrafted cornerbacks of recent vintage who went on to Pro Bowl/All-Pro success, three came from Division II and another came from a non-Power 5 school. There’s Missouri Western’s Sam Webb, who started for four seasons, ran a 4.48-second 40-yard dash at the combine and tested well athletically. Or Georgia Southern’s Darrell Baker Jr., who ran a 4.41-second 40-yard dash at his pro day after a six-year college career. Or East Carolina’s Ja’Quan McMillian, whose 12 interceptions in three seasons are the most among those with draftable grades from Brugler.

Safety 

Congratulations if you would have guessed safety as having the highest percentage of its best players coming from Power 5 conferences. Given the notorious difficulty of evaluating the position, more diamonds in the rough might have been expected. Instead, only four of the 32 Pro Bowl/All-Pro safeties from the past 10 seasons came from non-Power 5 schools (three from the Mountain West, one from Conference USA).

Safety also has the second-highest percentage of its best players coming from beyond the third round. As an oddity, it’s the only position with a Pro Bowl/All-Pro representative from each round along with an undrafted player. So while we might know generally where the best safeties come from, we don’t know when.

2022 draft outliers 

• If you want to take the Power 5 qualifier seriously, three of Brugler’s top 13 safeties would be dinged; Cincinnati’s Bryan Cook, Toledo’s Tycen Anderson and Louisiana’s Percy Butler. Obviously, Cook should not be penalized for playing for a team that made the playoffs last season, and one need only look at Jeremy Chinn’s success in Carolina to understand the importance of this qualifier.

• Otherwise, this group of safeties mostly falls within the physical benchmarks set forth by the sample. Michigan’s Dax Hill, Georgia’s Lewis Cine, Anderson, Tennessee’s Alontae Taylor, Baylor’s JT Woods and Butler all ran blazing 40-yard dashes that would rank second in the sample behind LaRon Landry’s 4.35. Maryland’s Nick Cross even bettered Landry with a 4.34.

• Oregon’s Verone McKinley ran a 4.65-second 40-yard dash that’s slower than Kam Chancellor’s previous low of 4.62. Texas A&M’s Leon O’Neal also fell below that mark, as the consensus top safety in the class. Notre Dame’s Kyle Hamilton ran his 40-yard dash in 4.59 seconds at the combine but followed that up with a glacial 4.7 at his pro day. This serves as a reminder that NFL teams are dealing with much more precise information than we are and will be able to rely on Hamilton’s GPS tracking data to better assess and compare his on-field speed.

• Cook and Woods both have smaller hands than the previous small at the position. Also, Auburn’s Smoke Monday’s 30-inch vertical jump is below the Jordan Poyer threshold.

• Three players topped the previous best broad jump for the position: Georgia Tech’s Tariq Carpenter, Taylor and Cine.

Checks all the boxes 

Almost all of the class fits within the tidy little boxes of the position, which only makes it a more difficult position to evaluate. The teams selecting Hamilton and Hill will feel good knowing first-round safeties have a lower bust rate than most positions.

Potential late-round sleeper 

Take your pick among experienced big-school players like Kentucky’s Yusuf Corker, Iowa’s Dane Belton and Oklahoma’s Delarrin Turner-Yell. Corker fits most neatly into type, and his 23 bench-press reps would rank second in the sample behind Reshad Jones’ 24.

(Photo of Kayvon Thibodeaux: Steph Chambers / Getty Images)