With just a couple of weeks left in the regular season, you still have lots of Ranger questions — many of them looking beyond these next seven games and the postseason to what the Rangers can do to keep the bulk of this team together for 2022-23 and beyond.
We’ll start this mailbag with a few questions that regarded Ryan Strome and Andrew Copp, two second-liners who are also pending UFAs and both likely want to stay in New York.
(Note: Some questions are edited for clarity and length.)
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Do you think it makes more sense for the Rangers to extend Copp instead of Strome? What are the pros and cons of each and what might the Rangers prefer? Or neither and trade for someone else? — Erik S.
The pros for Strome are pretty clear: He works well with one of the most important Rangers in Artemi Panarin, who values chemistry and comfort with his teammates and his linemates. Strome’s two-way game is underrated, though his penchant for stick fouls is a little too much at times. He’s a vocal leader on a team that’s pretty quiet and reserved.
Copp’s pros are pretty similar, as we’ve seen in his 12 games so far. He’s got a surprising amount of chemistry with Panarin, his two-way game is rated just right and he can be a vocal leader.
You’d have to give the edge in Panarin chemistry to Strome, who has a more proven offensive upside to his game. Copp still seems to be scratching the surface of what he can do as a top-six forward, though.
As with most choices in a salary-cap world, the Rangers’ decision may come down to simple numbers — not which player they prefer. If Strome is seeking five years at $6 million per, say, and Copp wants six years at $5 million per — let’s even further say that these are starting points for negotiations — then general manager Chris Drury is probably leaning toward Copp to keep the AAV down.
Option C here, a trade, seems the least likely. The Rangers can make it work with Strome or Copp; they could even try to juggle the rest of their roster to fit both, though that seems like a difficult one to pull off and would result in them losing a lot of depth. But letting both Strome and Copp walk in free agency, then spending assets to acquire a No. 2 center? That would be the biggest head-scratcher of all.
Can the Rangers fit both Strome and Copp in while re-signing Kaapo Kakko? — Adam M.
The Rangers have roughly $11.8 million in 2022-23 cap space now (thanks, CapFriendly). In the most generous world — where Sammy Blais takes his $1.5 million qualifying offer, where Kakko takes a one- or two-year bridge deal for something around $2 million per and the Rangers find a backup goalie for under $2 million — they would have $6.5 million or so to sign Strome and Copp. That money gets you one or the other. Even tossing a couple of bodies overboard (Patrik Nemeth, Filip Chytil) only gets you to $11 million or so and then you still need a body or two.
Will the Rangers start next season with Strome, with Copp or with neither? — TY M.
A couple of weeks ago, I would have said Strome, next question. Now I’m not so sure. Copp’s versatility — that buzzword used when Drury signed Barclay Goodrow — is a real asset. If he can be a presence on Panarin’s line, great. If he needs to drop down and play third line, also great. These are the kinds of forwards this Rangers brain trust likes. So I’m going Copp right now.
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I’ll probably change my answer again in a few weeks, though.
If the Rangers don’t have Strome extended by the draft, do you think they make a trade for a 23- to 25-year-old center? — Will W.
Did you have one in mind? The list of pending RFA centers who could be top six for these Rangers is pretty short. If the Jets decide to keep Mark Scheifele, maybe Pierre-Luc Dubois could be had, but that’s a major trade where you’re giving up a lot. J.T. Miller isn’t 25 anymore, but perhaps Drury wants to revisit that in the summer.
After that, you’re staring at some slim pickings.
Who are cheap backup goalies the Rangers might have an interest in for next year? — Eric E.
There are plenty of aging backups who have had meh numbers for meh teams this season (Thomas Greiss, Jaro Halak, Martin Jones) who could be had for under $2 million. But then you’re leaning heavily on Igor Shesterkin, which may not be a winning strategy, given his yearly groin issue.
One name that jumps out is Mikko Koskinen. He’s been mediocre for the most part on a ridiculous contract in pressure-filled Edmonton, but he’s played a lot the last four seasons. He’ll be 34 next season, among the younger of the names available. And he was Shesterkin’s goalie partner for SKA in the KHL for four years. Maybe they hated each other! But doubtful. Koskinen might have the right makeup to reunite with Shesterkin on a short, cheap deal, and he has the recent background to show he could play 30 games or so without a serious dip in quality.
Hard decisions coming. Would the Rangers consider trading Ryan Lindgren as a way to open up more cap space? Might sound absurd, but space will have to be created somehow. — J K.
Drury will for sure be looking for ways to shed salary, but it’s hard to see how trading Lindgren makes the Rangers better. His play this season has been capable — not as solid as last year, but the ever-so-slight dip in Adam Fox’s play may have more to do with that than anything Lindgren’s done. He’s got two more years at $3 million per which isn’t nothing but also isn’t a major impediment, considering the things he does.
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If you move Lindgren, here’s your left side defensive depth chart:
K’Andre Miller
Patrik Nemeth
Zac Jones
Matthew Robertson
Jarred Tinordi
Are there three NHL defensemen in that group? Now you’ve got to bring someone in to be a top-four guy for less than the $3 million you’ve jettisoned.
If they can move Nemeth somehow, that’s probably the ideal play to shed salary this summer.
I love Jacob Trouba, but don’t you think it would be in the best interest of the Rangers to trade him (and his high salary) in the next couple of years for the ability to sign the new contracts coming up? Especially since they have a mini-Trouba in the prospect ranks and a real solid D core coming up soon. — William C.
If you traded Trouba, you could certainly find a replacement for him at a lower cost. So there is that. But trading Trouba removes the leader of the D corps and the sort of player you’d always be looking to replace. The contract is certainly high, and it’s fair to see what happens in the postseason to evaluate where the Rangers need to free up money. But I doubt any NHL GM would want to be the guy that dealt Trouba and then had to try and replace what he brings.
Which young Ranger defenseman will be the odd man out? What trade value do they have? Can we get a good center for a package of them? — Darren L.
Nils Lundkvist is probably still top of the “odd man out” list unless Drury decides to move Trouba or Braden Schneider. The problem going into the summer is that every team knows Lundkvist is a goner, so getting something back of good value might not be so simple.
Will Vitali Kratsov be moved or does he get one more chance? — Paul F.
The playoff run’s performance will be very telling in trying to determine what this forward group will look like next year. With about $11 million available to sign a second-line center, address the right-wing hole (with only Ryan Reaves signed there for next year) and a backup goalie, why not secure Vatrano at about $3.5 to $4 million and Kravtsov at no more than $1.5 million, and then explore trading Kakko-plus depending on return for a young, cost-controlled center who could compete with Chytil for 2C next year? — Vitaly P.
Kravtsov is still in a holding pattern after his KHL season ended with a loss in the conference final. His agent and Drury are speaking, which is a good step, but there doesn’t seem to be a ton of trust on either side, and a peaceful offseason may not put the turbulent past to bed. The Rangers could definitely benefit from having Kravtsov on the roster next season, whether it’s at $1.5 million or something similar. He’d be cost-controlled, which is something the team badly needs.
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Whether Drury would commit to Kravtsov and try to move Kakko for another young forward could be too big a leap of faith for the Rangers on a player who hasn’t exactly endeared himself with his behavior.
Bringing Vatrano back is an interesting one. Could they get him for even less than $3.5 to 4 million? Maybe two years at $3 million gets it done and then there’s a top-six right wing you don’t have to worry about. But even at that, someone would have to go to make room on the cap for that signing.
We’ll see what the offseason brings for Kravtsov, but even him coming over to train in the New York area wouldn’t be a sign of much. He certainly wants into the NHL, but back in with the Rangers hasn’t been answered yet.
At what point can we officially start worrying about the lack of offense in Kakko’s game? A consistent 0.35 career ppg over three seasons – literally linear scoring- appears to be very worrisome in how decidedly unimpressive such production is coming from a second overall. Is it not reasonable to expect more than stellar defense from such a highly picked player? — Vitaly P.
Asked a longtime European scout about Kakko not too long ago. Here’s part of his answer on Kakko and high Euro draft picks who come straight to the NHL in their teens: “It’s not even a question that Europeans should be kept in Europe for X number of years. We’re in a world where expectations of entry-level players on your team because of the cap blinds us to kids’ development track. … We put them in environments they’re not prepared for, get frustrated with them, they lose their confidence. We need to be better students of history at times.”
He also spoke about the Rangers (not his employer) having a bit of a track record recently with European draft picks and the push/pull of when to bring them over and how to handle them once they’re here. Kakko isn’t in the Lias Andersson/Kravtsov track — he’s been an eager presence — but he’s still only 21.
Here are the European-trained top 10 picks since 2012 who went straight to the NHL after their draft years, with their points per game over the first three seasons in the league:
| Player | Draft team | Drafted | PPG |
|---|---|---|---|
Jets | 2nd in 2016 | 0.78 | |
Panthers | 2nd in 2013 | 0.62 | |
Canadiens | 3rd in 2018 | 0.36 | |
Rangers | 2nd in 2019 | 0.36 | |
Oilers | 4th in 2016 | 0.27 |
So that’s two guys on their second teams, one on his second stint with his same team, one bona fide star and Kakko. The Rangers may give up on Kakko at some point, but there has to be patience, it seems, for this scenario to work.
Fox isn’t doing quite as well as his Norris winning year, but what do the stats say exactly is he doing defensively? Is he still having a No. 1 defensemen season? — Alexander W.
Fox has a 49.6 percent expected-goals rate this season according to Evolving-Hockey’s data. Out of 115 defensemen who’ve played at least 1,000 five-on-five minutes, that ranks 65th.
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Last season, Fox ranked 19th of 104 defensemen with at least 750 five-on-five minutes at 54.8 xG%. It’s a decent-sized drop. Last season’s Rangers were not better defensively than this year’s, but stylistically they played a bit differently in the defensive zone. Gerard Gallant’s Rangers are willing to allow themselves to be Corsi’d with outside shots, even though the reality early this season was that there were too many high-danger chances against rather than just harmless tosses from the perimeter.
According to Natural Stat Trick (which relies on NHL play-by-play for data), the Rangers get 50.8 percent of the high-danger chances this season with Fox on the ice. Last season, it was 52.6 percent.
At five-on-five, he’s been surpassed by the K’Andre Miller-Jacob Trouba pair, which has gotten more minutes than Lindgren-Fox since Jan. 1. It’s Trouba (19:20), Miller (19:14) and then Fox (18:34).
A couple of opposing players recently pointed out they think Fox is still dealing with an injury, possibly the one he suffered in Columbus on Jan. 27 that cost him three games. Even Fox at 70 to 75 percent is still pretty great, but it’s not No. 1 defenseman territory.
(Photo of Andrew Copp and Ryan Strome: Jared Silber / NHLI via Getty Images)
