It’s been three years since Detroit woke up on a Friday morning in April to the news Steve Yzerman was coming home.
That day, the captain of some of the Red Wings’ greatest moments was introduced as the team’s new general manager, stepping in to do the same kind of advanced architecture he had just done for the Tampa Bay Lightning. He inherited some problems — Detroit had only won 32 games that year and had too many pricey veterans on long-term deals — but also some real promise. He had a young No. 1 center who, by then, seemed a shoo-in to be the next captain. He had surrounding young talent at forward, and some recent high draft picks on the way. And he had a healthy war chest of draft capital waiting for him.
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There was unavoidable pain on the horizon, but there was also hope.
Three years later, both have come to fruition.
In Yzerman’s first season, the Red Wings were on track for one of the worst seasons of the salary cap era until COVID-19 cut it short. This year, they sit at 29 wins with six games left in the season — fewer than the year before the GM arrived. Many players have since left the organization, by way of trades, free agency and buyouts.
At the same time, new young talents have taken their place. Detroit has a real chance to end up with multiple finalists for the Calder Trophy this season. Their prospect pool is one of the best in the league. And for large stretches of the season, the buzz was back inside Little Caesars Arena.
So, how has the Red Wings’ rebuild changed in three years under Yzerman’s leadership? And when will it be time to turn the corner? On the three-year anniversary of his arrival, let’s dive in.
April 19, 2019
The core: Dylan Larkin (22), Anthony Mantha (24), Tyler Bertuzzi (24), Andreas Athanasiou (24), Filip Hronek (21)
On the doorstep: Filip Zadina (19), Michael Rasmussen (20), Joe Veleno (19), Dennis Cholowski (21)
Analysis: When Yzerman took over, the No. 1 strength of the organization was in the form of its four young forwards under the age of 25. Larkin and Athanasiou were coming off 30-goal seasons. Mantha and Bertuzzi were coming into their own as top-six forwards who could bring multiple dimensions to their game. Meanwhile, on the back end, Detroit had an emerging young defenseman in Hronek — who, at 21, had stepped into the NHL and put up a half-point per game in 20 minutes per night.
All of them offered appealing elements to build around, and Larkin — the most valuable of the bunch, as a young top-line center — was under contract for the next four seasons at a bargain $6.1 million.
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What remained to be seen, though, was the development of several recent high draft picks. Zadina, at the time, was coming off a nine-game teaser after being drafted at No. 6 in 2018. Rasmussen had spent the year in the NHL as a 19-year-old, but mostly as a result of restrictions on where he could play as a CHL prospect. AHL time was due to follow the next year. Cholowski had started the preceding season red hot, but faded and finished in the American League. And Veleno had just torn up the QMJHL in his draft-plus-one season.
All four were former first-round picks, as was forward Evgeny Svechnikov, who had missed all of the 2018-19 season due to a knee injury. No team bats 1.000 on draft picks — even first-rounders — and there was already some trepidation back then around what the trajectory would be for Cholowski, Svechnikov and even Rasmussen. But between the existing prospects and the stockpile of draft picks the Red Wings had compiled via the Tomas Tatar, Gustav Nyquist and Nick Jensen trades, there was legitimate rebuild capital in place when Yzerman arrived.
The question was, how long would it all take to materialize?
April 19, 2022
The core: Dylan Larkin (25), Tyler Bertuzzi (27), Jakub Vrana (26), Moritz Seider (21), Lucas Raymond (20)
On the doorstep: Simon Edvinsson (19), Jonatan Berggren (21), Elmer Söderblom (20), Albert Johansson (21)
A few things jump out immediately. First, Larkin and Bertuzzi did indeed remain core pieces for the Red Wings over the first three years of Yzerman’s tenure, with Vrana swapping in for Mantha as part of a 2021 trade. Bertuzzi is in the middle of a career-best season, Larkin likely would have gotten there if not for season-ending core muscle surgery, and Vrana is showing legitimate 30- (maybe even 40-) goal ability.
Then there’s the addition of the two young building blocks to that core, Seider and Raymond. These were Yzerman’s first two first-round picks, and both look like home runs so far — Seider as a true No. 1 defenseman, and Raymond as a top-line winger with high-end upside.
Those are the positives.
The downside is, none of those prospects who were on the NHL’s doorstep in 2019 have ascended into core pieces. Rasmussen, Zadina and Veleno are all regulars for the Red Wings, and all are still young enough that one could take that next step in the coming years. Rasmussen, in particular, has been hot lately. But as of now, that step into legit top-six territory hasn’t happened for any of the three, and it’s entirely possible it won’t.
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Meanwhile, Hronek — who once seemed like a building block as a productive, minute-munching, 21-year-old right-shot defenseman — seems to have fallen out of that core tier. He’s remained a productive defenseman and plays a significant role for the Red Wings, which is excellent for a former second-round pick. But the night-to-night impact hasn’t been at that building block level, and it’s possible he ends up as more of a No. 4 on a contender.
And, while Larkin, Bertuzzi and Vrana have shown to be impact players, they also have to be viewed differently today, as players squarely in their prime rather than just entering it. Larkin will turn 26 this summer, which gives him plenty more very good years ahead — and the best may well be yet to come. That’s been the case, for example, for Gabriel Landeskog in Colorado.
But in terms of where Detroit’s rebuild sits, there’s more pressure to win sooner with a core made up of 26- and 27-year-olds compared to 23- and 24-year-olds.
How improved are the Red Wings?
The ascension of Seider and Raymond gives Detroit something they didn’t have when Yzerman took over: two sublime talents just beginning their entry-level contracts, with their entire careers in front of them. That’s a big deal.
The fact one of those talents is a young No. 1 defenseman — one of the hardest pieces to find in the NHL — makes it even better. If Edvinsson, who just turned 19 and is playing a massive role for Frölunda in the SHL this season, pans out as a top-pair pillar as well, the blue line will have effectively transformed from where it was three years ago. And there’s even more prospect depth at the position, resulting from Yzerman using eight draft picks in the first three rounds on defensemen from 2019 to 2021.
Indeed, the next wave of talent coming for the Red Wings is a real source of hope for the franchise. Edvinsson and goaltending prospect Sebastian Cossa are the top end of the system — and likely the only source of high-end NHL potential — but between Johansson, Berggren, Söderblom, winger Carter Mazur, longer-term defense prospect Shai Buium and more, there are plenty of young players on the way who project to help Detroit.
But as the last three seasons have shown, the gap between legitimate NHL talent and top-of-the-lineup players can be a big one. And while Detroit now has more of the former than it did three seasons ago, the ticking clock is a factor there, too.
Larkin was 22 (soon to be 23) when Yzerman took over, and now is just one year away from that bargain contract expiring at age 27. Meanwhile, the Red Wings may finish with fewer standings points this season than they did back in 2019.
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Certainly, Larkin’s not too old to continue to build around, and extending him should be priority No. 1 for the Red Wings this summer. But if nothing else, his career arc so far should serve as a reminder that time is of the essence when a team has young stars.
While the Red Wings are clearly farther along in their rebuild than they were three seasons ago, it’s important to note the on-ice results are still no better. And even though it’s not the likeliest outcome, there’s at least some risk of this cycle repeating unless Detroit starts adding more aggressively, or unless the next wave of prospects includes some hidden gems to speed things up from within.
What’s next?
Yzerman tips his hand on virtually nothing, so there’s no telling how he’ll approach this summer and beyond. But this current offseason, in particular, certainly has the look of a crossroads.
While it’s understandable that the on-ice needle hasn’t moved much in Yzerman’s first three seasons, these kinds of results won’t be nearly as tolerable in the coming years, as consecutive losing seasons continue to stack up.
Some patience is still needed when it comes to the growth of young players (both in the NHL and in the farm system), but the Red Wings still have yet to make a major push at improving the NHL roster via free agency. Considering the level of cap flexibility Detroit has had, that’s been a clear philosophical approach, with the Red Wings seemingly preferring marginal tweaks and upgrades over the big swing. And in many ways, it’s been justified: Detroit hasn’t given much reason to believe even a splashy offseason addition would make them into a serious playoff threat.
Last summer was the most aggressive (relatively speaking) the Red Wings have been under Yzerman, bringing in Pius Suter and trading for Alex Nedeljkovic and Nick Leddy. Those moves had varying degrees of success, but they were all at least geared toward winning soon. And now that Seider and Raymond have burst onto the scene — with more young players on the way — the story of this coming offseason will be whether Detroit is finally ready to go big.
It’s worth noting, however, that there’s a real possibility there’s more tear-down coming, too. With the exception of Robby Fabbri, who signed a contract extension this season, Yzerman has traded nearly every pending UFA with meaningful value by the trade deadline since taking over the team. Larkin and Bertuzzi — both of whom are due to hit free agency in 2023 — can’t sign extensions until this summer, but until they do, there will be at least some uncertainty around their futures. Trade speculation was already in full force around Bertuzzi this past deadline.
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Going that route with another core player — without getting an immediate replacement back, or via free agency — would be a significant setback to Detroit’s contention timeline. And, to be clear, that may still be a reasonable path to take if the Red Wings feel they need more time to accumulate talent.
But while the past three years of spinning their tires have been largely inevitable for the Red Wings, the rebuild’s next steps really could go in either direction.
Is it time to start committing more dollars and term in pursuit of the playoffs? Is it going to take so long that more subtraction is inevitable? Or is it viable to spend another year feeling things out?
They’re big decisions, with real risk on all sides.
Or, put another way: exactly the kind of choices Yzerman was brought in three years ago to make.
(Top photo of Dylan Larkin talking to Moritz Seider and Lucas Raymond: Dave Reginek / NHLI via Getty Images)
