Lions NFL Draft debates: Is No. 2 pick too big a risk for Kyle Hamilton?

Amid all the talk about which edge defender the Lions should draft at No. 2, Notre Dame safety Kyle Hamilton continues to linger in the conversation as a wild-card option. Traditionally, safeties have not been valued on the same plane as other “premier” positions, but this isn’t necessarily a traditional draft class. If the Lions believe Hamilton can be a “unicorn” on their defense — providing matchup advantages all over the place — then this might be the year to take a shot.

Is Hamilton worth it?

Chris Burke: Nick, it’s now less than two weeks until Round 1 and the Lions’ list of possible picks almost feels like it’s expanding rather than tightening up. We’ll get into Hamilton’s specific fit with Detroit later, but just as a starting point: How hard is it to measure him against the other prospects expected to go up top?

Nick Baumgardner: Well, Chris, here we are again: Back to freak everyone out. This is Kyle Pitts 2021, Chapter II, as far as I’m concerned. It’s incredibly difficult to measure him against the top clusters at the premium spots (edge, offensive tackle) because Hamilton isn’t like any other singular player in the draft. Just like last year, when we said not to get hung up on Pitts’ listed position, the same is true for Hamilton.

We do not inevitably know what Hamilton’s true NFL position will be. We have to see where he’s picked, where he fits, that team’s schedule, etc. In theory, everything with Hamilton can be situational. He can be a free safety, strong safety, nickel corner, stack linebacker, overhang defender and maybe an outside corner. All at once, all in the same game.

Can anyone else in this draft claim similar, at any spot?

Burke: There are a couple of other linebacker/safety and defensive end/outside linebacker hybrids who walk that line — you might even have some conversations like that over Kayvon Thibodeaux, to be honest. Not to this extent, though. Let’s get into it.

Why he’s good

Burke: Aside from the potential versatility (which we’ll talk about), if you had to pick one thing about Hamilton that jumps out for you, what would it be?

Baumgardner: It would be his athletic burst at his size/length/frame. That’s cheating, but that’s my answer. You and I talk more about safeties far too much. Not just because the Lions are in desperate need of the box variety but also because it’s just an insanely difficult position to play. The hardest thing about being a strong safety in today’s game is having to deal with guys like Travis Kelce, Darren Waller and, in time, Pitts.

It’s not one thing with Kelce. It’s the full package. As an athlete, he’s just completely put together. His ability to start and stop from nothing, as a 6-4, 250-pound athlete, is insane. Hamilton is the rare 6-4, 220-pound athlete with safety skills and the burst to match the rarest offensive athletes in today’s game: And that’s the freak tight end.

It stands to reason, of course: If you have the skills to match the best of the best at that position, you should be able to damn near take it away from every other team on the schedule over time. A nearly priceless (and albeit long-range hypothetical) trait. A lot of this, of course, is in theory.

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Burke: I think that’s why we’re even mentioning Hamilton as an option at No. 2. The line on those freaky, mismatch tight ends is always, “They’re too fast for linebackers to cover and too physical for DBs.” Hamilton has had some hiccups in man coverage from the slot, but they’re usually against wide receivers who want to get vertical. He should be able to get in there and body up tight ends.

The other reason he should work there is what I’d consider his biggest strength, even beyond versatility: play recognition. When he blows up run plays or cuts in front of routes, it usually happens because he’s processing the game a step ahead of everyone else on the field. That’s why his 4.6 40 speed is a little misleading. In his “Freaks” list last year, Bruce Feldman had Hamilton at 21 miles per hour on GPS speed — he can gear up like that during a game because he’s decisive.

Is that where you’d start him off, down near the box or as an overhang defender? Or do you think he’s immediately bouncing from assignment to assignment?

Baumgardner: That’s where the trick comes in with a player like this, and with someone like Isaiah Simmons (in a deeper sense, Ifeatu Melifonwu). He has to learn/master one spot first and prove he has a home base. So, for Detroit, you’d start him as your strong safety in Aaron Glenn’s split safety defense. Obviously assignments and matchups dictate what happens play to play, but in terms of alignment, that’d be my assumption.

Though, again, I’m not 100 percent sure on that. Simmons, who was nearly in the same spot as a prospect in 2020, played stack linebacker last year in Arizona. That’s his fit in that defense, and we’ll see what happens in time.

But Hamilton’s football IQ is what really excites people. He’s a very serious player by all accounts and while ambition of “what you could become” will have to be throttled down in the immediate in favor of “can you play one spot right first,” the potential is intriguing.

Burke: I’d add that, while we keep mentioning the size, it’s really evident in how Hamilton plays against the run and as a blitzer. You can have him set an edge — maybe not all the time, but if you can get him on a tight end or a plodding offensive tackle. You also can fire him up in the A-gap and he’s going to make the quarterback feel him.

The 6-4, 220 frame is huge for a safety (and it does explain some of the sluggish agility scores). So, he’s a hybrid option because he looks and plays like a hybrid option.

What are the concerns?

Burke: I’ve mentioned a couple little issues along the way here. Hamilton tested more like an outside linebacker or even a wide receiver than a safety; he probably needs to use that physical presence a little more in man to make sure guys aren’t blowing by him. There’s nothing that anyone would consider a fatal flaw, though, so the debate is: Do the pros outweigh the cons enough to make him No. 2-worthy?

Baumgardner: The 40 time gets overplayed in part because many really don’t seem to understand Hamilton’s full athletic profile. And the fact his frame, in time, could be carrying at least 10 more pounds depending on the situation. So a lot of that is: Who cares? But the lack of a “whoa” time there does seem to take some of what’s possible with Hamilton off the table, at least right away.

You mentioned “how many spots could he play?” Well, until he’s more comfortable with his play strength at or near the line of scrimmage, as you note, he won’t be able to do much for you as a corner — because his agility, while good in any other setting, won’t hold up so well out wide/in the slot in the NFL. There are still general power issues with his game that require a decision on what he will be (don’t confuse that with toughness; he’s plenty tough). People have questioned his impact as a blitzer (you brought up the good point about physicality at the line of scrimmage); I wonder if some of that pops up on tape with Hamilton at Notre Dame because he was being asked to monitor 10 things instead of three things, like everybody else.

It does feel like he needs to pick a home first. Prove it. Then we’ll see. He’s an amazingly fun prospect — but at No. 2? For this team? That’s where I start sweating. He’s fascinating, though. I don’t think anyone really knows where to slot him at this point.

But, I’m going to ask you anyway!

Burke: Well, let me spin that into our final section …

The Lions’ fit

Burke: … because it’s where I keep tripping over myself with Hamilton. I love him as a prospect and think he’s a top-10 player in this class, rather easily. But you really have to split hairs here. Is he a true, generational defender who will erase everything on three levels? I think some folks — and some teams — probably would say yes.

There will be others, however, who think he’s more of a box safety/linebacker hybrid who, occasionally, can play over the top. Still valuable! Perhaps not No. 2-level valuable. And I keep bouncing back and forth between the ideas.

I do think Glenn would love him and the possibilities he brings. Maybe that’s enough?

Baumgardner: I’ve come to look at Hamilton as a player who can be a foundational piece for a defense — no matter who is coaching it — over the next 10 years. And, not just in this draft, but in any draft — that’s not always the easiest prospect to find. He has that potential athletically and, much like was the case with Penei Sewell a year ago, we’ve heard nothing to suggest the mental component won’t be there to match.

So I look at him as a foundational piece of the franchise who can grow and morph and change as necessary. We know it’s possible (if not likely) that Sewell won’t be a right tackle forever. He’ll add value to the Lions in any scenario, though. Hamilton is the back-end defensive version of that.

The question for me, as always, comes down to: Is that worth it to you in the top three? There are (many) days I tell myself it should be. But I’m not foolish enough to think NFL teams agree. Your thoughts?

Burke: I don’t think I’d take him at 2 — the Lions have to upgrade their pass rush or the secondary can’t play from its strengths anyway, and they’re in prime position to land a defensive end/outside linebacker.

That said, would I be stunned if Brad Holmes took him at 2? No. Holmes and Dan Campbell both have talked, repeatedly, about challenging the status quo when it comes to scouting. Campbell even brought up the possibility of drafting outside of traditional value at that pick — meaning, sure, they could go safety. But I don’t think Hamilton is leaps and bounds better than Aidan Hutchinson or Kayvon Thibodeaux or Travon Walker, and I’d rather have a difference-maker at that position.

Last word from you: If you were Lions GM, would Hamilton be your pick?

Baumgardner: Only if I could move off No. 2. If I could trade down with, say, the Giants at 7 and draft Hamilton, I would probably trip over myself turning the card in. But, like you said, more squinting is required to see what Hamilton will be for a defense long-term.

He will be good, for a long time. But where, and how impactful will that be early? Not sure. For the Lions, “not sure” isn’t good enough at No. 2. And while this draft is hardly dripping with no-doubt difference-makers, you have to do the absolute best you can with what you have at every spot.

(Photo: Don Juan Moore / Getty Images)