In the 10 games leading up to this year’s NHL trade deadline, the Edmonton Oilers deployed nine defencemen, including two rookies (Philip Broberg, Markus Niemelainen) and one young player (Evan Bouchard) getting heavy minutes in his first full season.
The Oilers needed a veteran defenceman, but what type and which side?
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Edmonton was unable to replace shutdown minutes lost when Adam Larsson left for the Seattle Kraken during the expansion draft process, but was also in need of a left-handed defender with enough speed to reach pucks quickly on the third pair partnered with Tyson Barrie.
Two-way defenceman Cody Ceci has provided the team with a workaround on the top pairing with Darnell Nurse, allowing the club to look for left-handed speed on the blue line.
The move general manager Ken Holland made at the deadline was to add speed and defensive prowess in Brett Kulak from the Montreal Canadiens. Although lacking a strong physical edge, Kulak’s numbers over several years suggested he could handle five-on-five minutes successfully relative to his fellow defencemen.
How is it working in Edmonton?
A new arrival takes some time to acclimate but Kulak stepped right in on the third pairing and has played well for the Oilers. His time with Montreal this season involved playing for a club that was struggling, but a side-by-side comparison of his performance on both teams is consistent. Numbers are all five-on-five and via Natural Stat Trick:
| Team | TOI | Shot Diff. | Goal Diff. | X-Goal % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Montreal | 16:18 | 50.28 | 43.21 | 49.38 |
Edmonton | 14:33 | 54.27 | 61.9 | 58.07 |
Kulak has good possession numbers in both cities and is helping Edmonton outscore when he’s on the ice. The Montreal number reflects quality of team; Kulak enjoyed a 52 percent goal share in 2020-21 with a much stronger Canadiens team.
Kulak has been used on the PK (1:29 a night on average, GA/60 of 3.1) but the biggest impact on the Oilers so far has been at five-on-five.
Partners
Since his arrival in Edmonton, Kulak has played mostly with Barrie, a puck mover, and the five-on-five results have been splendid:
| Player | Minutes | Shot Diff. | Goal Diff | X-Goal % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
154 | 53.15 | 73.33 | 55.61 | |
14 | 61.11 | 50 | 71.62 |
The numbers are unlikely to remain this favourable, but in Kulak’s early games with Edmonton his foot speed and defensive ability have been on display. In 13 games with the Oilers, his five-on-five GA/60 (2.54) ranks No. 3 during the period after the trade deadline.
This is a small sample, but based on Kulak’s performance so far, he can be trusted to deliver solid third-pairing minutes and settle down an area that experienced some chaos during the early portions of the season.
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Signing Kulak
Kulak is playing out the final year of a three-year deal with a $1.85 million cap hit. His next contract probably includes a slight bump, but a $2 million third-pairing defenceman who can help settle down the defence, chip in on the penalty kill and contribute to overall team speed should cover the bet.
The decision for Holland will surround the team’s young left-handed defencemen. Since arrival, Holland has slow-played defencemen and now the organization finds itself with three young players who are NHL-ready: Broberg, Niemelainen and Dmitri Samorukov.
Broberg and Niemelainen can be sent out next fall, but Samorukov will be waiver eligible. All three men spent considerable time in the AHL with the Bakersfield Condors this season, delivering solid results. Here are the numbers for each player at even strength goal differential in 2021-22:
| Player | Games | Pts-Game | EV GF-GA | EV Pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|
28 | 0.71 | 25-14 | 64.1 | |
51 | 0.35 | 46-33 | 58.2 | |
34 | 0.23 | 29-25 | 53.7 |
Broberg is the most dynamic of the minor-league defencemen, and he is adept at playing the right side, too. His pedigree (No. 8 pick in 2019) and performance during his first season in North America implies Broberg will be the next regular out of the system to make the grade.
Niemelainen and Samorukov have a similar skill set, chances are the organization will shuffle one of them out of the system at some point. Niemelainen’s crushing hits and Samorukov’s growing injury history may be creating clearance for the Finn, but that’s not clear at this time.
The three youngsters played in the NHL briefly this season, here are the five-on-five numbers:
| Player | Games | TOI-Game | GF-GA | Pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|
22 | 11:59 | 8-16 | 33.33 | |
20 | 11:33 | 6-11 | 35.29 | |
1 | 2:28 | 0-2 | 0 |
Broberg’s numbers improved in his last recall (he was 6-7 goals five-on-five in 14 games beginning Feb. 11) and his resume suggests he will be a strong candidate to break camp in the fall with the big club. Samorukov’s waiver eligibility may give him an advantage over Niemelainen, but only to a point, and a good performance in camp by either man could be enough to win the day.
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What will Holland do?
Holland may deal a veteran to make room for young talent, but there’s a chance the team will return all of Nurse, Ceci, Bouchard, Barrie and Duncan Keith.
The price point on Kulak is affordable, he’ll cost more than the three rookies next year, but it’s a small price to pay when bringing the experience Edmonton values.
The Oilers under Holland start the season with several recall options and use the minor leagues liberally. Here are this season’s Condors and their NHL numbers:
| Player | Game | Scoring numbers |
|---|---|---|
30 | four assists | |
22 | two assists | |
20 | one assist | |
13 | .913 save percentage | |
8 | one goal, two points | |
1 | one assist | |
1 | no points | |
1 | no points |
This doesn’t include players who began the year in the NHL (Tyler Benson, Colton Sceviour, Brendan Perlini, Slater Koekkoek) who would later land in the AHL.
The Holland way is to start the youngsters in the minors, recalling when ready.
Is Kulak a strong candidate for signing?
Kulak has played in just 13 games with the Oilers, and there’s plenty of story to unfold this spring.
Based on what we know, and the current evidence, signing Kulak would seem to be a strong possibility for the Oilers.
Broberg and Niemelainen can begin the season in the minors, and Samorukov will challenge in training camp if he’s healthy.
At the very least, Kulak would be a suitable upgrade on No. 7 Kris Russell, but his fine play in early games for Edmonton suggests he can handle third-pairing minutes and calm the waters when Barrie is on the ice.
In today’s NHL, that’s worth $2 million a year, easy.
(Photo: Andy Devlin / NHLI via Getty Images)
