Final Colts mock draft: Indy goes big on offense, addresses WR need

Unless something we cannot yet conjure happens Thursday night, the Colts will go without making a first-round pick in the NFL Draft for the third time in four years.

There is always the chance the Colts, who aren’t scheduled to pick until No. 42 overall, could trade up. Maybe someone they like starts slipping to the bottom of the first round and general manager Chris Ballard is so singularly focused on this player that he just has to have him.

Nah, just kidding!

I’d estimate there’s about a .0005 percent chance of that happening. Ballard, aka Mr. “I like them picks,” is far more likely to trade down a couple of times and stock up on a couple of additional mid-round selections because, well, how else is he going to get his fix and draft his requisite three defensive linemen?

In all seriousness, the bosses here at The Athletic have tasked us with putting together seven-round mock drafts for each team. But with the Colts lacking a first-rounder, it makes this a tougher assignment. With a first-round pick, there are fewer scenarios and fewer players to consider. The odds of nailing the pick are actually not impossible.

We’re a little less confident about hitting on picks like 122 or 159. Heck, even predicting Pick 42, the Colts’ first in this draft, would be a heck of a triumph. But this exercise will help you think through possible paths the Colts can take. And it will give you some insight into what the Colts are looking for in specific players, what kind of players appeal to them and how they see their roster.

So, with all of this in mind, here goes nothing.

Round 2, No. 42: Christian Watson, WR, North Dakota State

When was the last time the Colts had a wide receiver with a combination of elite size and speed? Never?

They can find that package in this 6-4, 208-pound North Dakota State product who has the potential to bring the big-play element to the offense. It’s not just that Watson checks the size box that the Colts covet in receivers. He also has the explosiveness you don’t necessarily associate with a player of his physical stature. Having logged a 4.36-second 40-yard dash to back up his many big plays on the field, Watson has a chance to evolve into a true deep threat for the Colts. Watson’s career average in college: 20.4 yards per catch.

Watson meets a few other criteria for the Colts. First, he was a Senior Bowl participant, something in which the Colts always place significant stock. This was particularly important given Watson’s level of competition in college (FCS). As an example, it was the Senior Bowl performance of All-Pro linebacker Darius Leonard that helped solidify him as a target for the Colts in 2018 — a decision that has worked out brilliantly.

Furthermore, Watson is a perfect complement to Michael Pittman. Watson could potentially fill the “Z” receiver position off the line of scrimmage, across from Pittman at the “X” receiver spot. The “Z” receiver needs to be a superior athlete while the “X” tends to be more physically dominant. Watson isn’t completely polished as a route runner, but he has rare explosiveness that matches well with Pittman’s skill set.

I was tempted to go with Western Michigan’s Skyy Moore here, a player who has been a popular pick among those who make these kinds of projections. But I just found it impossible to look past a pretty convincing fact: It’s difficult to envision the Colts drafting a receiver who stands 5 feet, 9 1/2 inches.

Ballard loves his measurables and is a stickler for prospects meeting the Colts’ positional size requirements. He’s drafted six wide receivers since arriving in Indianapolis and none have been smaller than 6-foot, 208-pound Parris Campbell.

Maybe I’m being too rigid here, but I’m just basing this on the Colts’ recent history. And that history is pretty compelling.

Final thing: If Watson is off the board here, and that’s possible, another option could be Jalen Tolbert of South Alabama. Some analysts peg him as more of a third-round choice, but I like the fit because he can run the full route tree (a critical requirement to playing as a rookie) and has run-after-catch potential. The Colts are looking for more of the latter.

Round 3, No. 73: Nicholas Petit-Frere, OT, Ohio State

It’s hard to envision the Colts being in position to get a pro-ready left tackle in this draft unless they get incredibly lucky. With that in mind, perhaps they look for the next-best thing: a player who can possibly develop into one.

With Petit-Frere, a former high school All-American, the Colts would be getting a player with the potential to grow because he has all the necessary tools. He’s got the size, at 6-5 and 316 pounds. He’s also got the athleticism, something he’s demonstrated by excelling as a zone blocker and with his elite quickness for the position.

There’s an opportunity with a player like Petit-Frere if he gets with the right coaches. And the Colts have some good ones in offensive line coach Chris Strausser and sidekick Kevin Mawae. They’ve developed players like former fifth-round pick Danny Pinter, who is expected to start at right guard this season, and they’ve turned Braden Smith into one of the best right tackles in football at a position he did not play in college.

Round 4, No. 122: Khalil Shakir, WR, Boise State

There are a couple of things that are particularly appealing about Shakir. First, he was wildly productive in college, with 208 career receptions for 2,878 yards (13.8-yard average). He also possesses versatility that would make him a good fit in head coach Frank Reich’s offense, which requires receivers to play multiple spots.

When you’re looking for depth at receiver, the versatility aspect is critical. If your backup wide receivers can play multiple spots within the offense, that creates more opportunities to use the player. The Colts like to use a rotation at wide receiver, so this quality would appeal to them. Beyond that, Shakir has solid speed (4.43 seconds in the 40-yard dash). He also has return ability on special teams, which creates value.

Then there is Shakir, the person. He comes from a military family, which is sure to be noted by the Colts. He’s regarded as a high-character teammate who was named a permanent captain last season.

Khalil Shakir. (Loren Orr / Getty Images)

Round 5, No. 159: Daniel Bellinger, TE, San Diego State

Bellinger’s an accomplished blocker who comes from a run-heavy offensive scheme. Could he be any more perfect for the Colts?

It’s difficult to find college tight ends who have proven to be reliable blockers. With today’s high-octane passing games at the college level, many are asked to be heavily involved as pass catchers. But they’re not always asked to handle heavy blocking responsibilities in the spread-out nature of college football. This is not an issue for Bellinger. He played in a scheme that required him to line up as an inline blocker, so he’ll be accustomed to handling that role in the NFL.

His receiving production was underwhelming, with 68 career receptions for 771 yards. But that’s partly a product of what he was asked to do. And, for the Colts, their real void at tight end is in the consistent run blocking they lost when Jack Doyle decided to retire.

Side note: This is about the point in the draft where I imagine Ballard starts getting antsy and considers a trade down that collects additional picks. If he doesn’t, he might find himself fighting a spontaneous high fever. But for the sake of this exercise, we’ll simplify things and avoid trades.

Round 6, No. 179: Zachary Carter, DL, Florida

This is the kind of defensive lineman you should expect the Colts to target in the later rounds — one with position flexibility. Carter brings the ability to play inside and outside along a defensive line, having been a starting defensive tackle and end for the Gators. At 6-4 and 282 pounds, he has the right physical size to alternate between the edge and interior.

Carter’s 11 tackles for loss last season grab your attention, but so do his eight sacks.

He’s not regarded as a superior athlete, but you shouldn’t expect a complete player at this point in the draft. The goal here should be to find depth and competition and a player capable of challenging for a roster spot.

Round 6, No. 216: Martin Emerson, CB, Mississippi State

The Stephon Gilmore signing made cornerback much less of a priority in this draft, but the unit still doesn’t have good depth. The Colts have managed to find a few keepers at cornerback late in the draft, including Isaiah Rodgers, a 2020 sixth-round pick who should compete for a starting job this fall.

Could Emerson be another such player? Perhaps. He’s got good size at 6 -foot-1 1/2 and 201 pounds. The Colts rarely deviate from their size requirements at cornerback, but that won’t be an issue here. Emerson projects as a solid zone-coverage corner, so he’d fit well in the scheme being installed by defensive coordinator Gus Bradley.

While Emerson doesn’t have elite timed speed, he is a very experienced special-teams contributor and is quite durable. Emerson never missed a game in college, appearing in 36 consecutive contests.

Round 7, No. 239: Nick Zakelj, G, Fordham

Here’s another Senior Bowl participant who fits well for the Colts. The FCS All-American is a former team captain who is durable and hasn’t missed a start in four years. He also has appeal because he’s a versatile prospect who started four seasons at left tackle but who scouts project as a guard in the NFL.

Zakelj is noted for his quickness and is said to get off the ball with impressive speed. That would be an asset to him in the running game, which is a huge component of the Colts’ offensive system. As with any prospect at this point in the draft, he is going to need significant development. But he could do worse than to come in and learn from a good staff and from veterans like Quenton Nelson and Ryan Kelly.

(Top photo of Christian Watson: Matthew Pearce / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)