Stars Mailbag Vol. 13: Off-season priorities, back-up goalies, and much, much more

April 7, 2018; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Dallas Stars left wing Jamie Benn (14) celebrates with center Tyler Seguin (91) his third goal of the game scored against the Los Angeles Kings during the first period at Staples Center. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
By Sean Shapiro
May 10, 2018

What do you consider your top 5 priorities for the Stars to accomplish this off-season? (From Kyle B.)

1. Add a top-six forward via trade or free agency.
2. Figure out a solution to the Jason Spezza conundrum.
3. Sign a reliable backup goalie that can play at least 25 games next season.
4. Go into training camp with an open mind about players like Jason Dickinson and Julius Honka.
5. Don’t mess up at the draft.

 

Hey Sean,

What are the odds that Nill manages to get rid of one of Spezza and Hanzal? I guess it’s possible given that some bad contracts have been dealt in recent years, but what kind of asset do you think the Stars would have to let go to convince another GM to take one of these players?

BTW thank you for the great coverage. (From Vincent P.)

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I don’t like to use the word impossible, but I think it’s impossible to move Martin Hanzal.

Hanzal has two years left on a hefty contract and we still don’t know if he’ll play another NHL game after his third career back surgery. The Stars are hopeful he’ll be ready after spinal fusion, but it’s a situation where we can’t have confidence he’ll be able to play until we see him do so.

To clarify, if Martin Hanzal is healthy and comes back I hope he has a tremendous season. It would be a great story to cover.

Jason Spezza can be moved and I get the feeling his future in Dallas will be determined later this month. At some point soon the Stars are going to have organizational meetings where Jim Nill and Jim Montgomery will likely sit down and discuss the make-up of the roster.

If Montgomery sees Spezza as a key part of what he’d like to build, I think the Stars will give the coach a chance to work with the veteran this season. If he’s not part of the vision, then Spezza will likely be traded this summer.

There is a market for Spezza. It’s better than some people believe, and it’s better than I would have initially thought.

We had a follow-up to this question…

 

Or even Methot? I don’t dislike him, I just wonder if it’s redundant having him there and preaching youth insurgence, while benching the Bayreuther’s and Heatherington’s. Thoughts, Sean? (From Christopher B.)

Don’t see the Stars moving on from Marc Methot. While Dallas will embrace youth on the back-end, there will be a desire for a veteran amongst the group in Methot.

That being said, Dillon Heatherington is ready for the NHL. I’m not sure how high his ceiling is, but he can be trusted to play in the NHL next season.

I’d like to see Gavin Bayreuther spend another season in the AHL and play 22 to 25 minutes per game next season for the Texas Stars. Bayreuther has really stood out during the AHL playoffs on Texas’ third-pairing. I like how he moves the puck, but I’d like to see him put in a spot where he needs to embrace all situations and shore up some gaps in his defensive coverage.

In my view, Bayreuther has a higher ceiling than Heatherington, but Heatherington is a better NHL option in the immediate future.

 

Hey Sean, do you think the Stars go after a Bernier or Hutton for backup goalie or do they want too much $/playing time? Seem like the best ufa goalies, but might not realistically be an option.. (From Sebastian F.)

The backup goalie market is fascinating to me this summer.

The Edmonton Oilers signed KHL goalie Mikko Koskinen to a one-year, $2.5 million contract to be the Cam Talbot’s backup. The Colorado Avalanche signed another KHL goalie, Pavel Francouz, to a one-year, $690,000 deal.

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Those signings bring up two thoughts about Jonathan Bernier and Carter Hutton.

1. If the Oilers set the market by signing a KHL goalie at $2.5 million deal, Hutton and Bernier are both worth at least $3 or $3.5 million, right?
2. The Avalanche are planning for life without Bernier and looking at Francouz as a low-cost option to replace him.

That brings us to Dallas.

Personally, I think either goalie would be worth the cost because the Stars need a goalie that can be counted on to play 30 to 35 games this coming season.

 

Do you think the Stars have overrated their young talent? (From Steven K.)

Yes and no. There are some younger players that got too much opportunity and others that haven’t received enough.

 

Lately you have often been suggesting to pump the brakes on Val. Why is that? What do you see that makes you skeptical? (From Matt F.)

I see a lot of hype and hope that Valeri Nichushkin will return and be an instant impact player at the NHL level, one that solves some major issues in the top-six.

I don’t think that’s a realistic expectation.

I look at Nichushkin as a top-nine forward who can provide offensive depth, which the Stars need, but I think a realistic projection is 25 to 30 points. If he’s scoring 25 to 30 points, essentially Devin Shore’s level from last season, it will be seen as a disappointment by some.

 

hey Sean I would really appreciate if you once could kinda like do a “stats” teaching article? Like what does corsi mean and all those other terms you and other writers frequently use in your articles do describe things. Hope that makes sense! (From Matt F.)

I actually had a conversation about this the other day with our baseball writer. Levi wrote about ISO in baseball, explained what it was and provided a nice case study for why it’s relevant for Texas Rangers fans (and baseball fans in general).

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Based off the comments and our back-end metrics, I think it was pretty well received and I know Levi plans to continue his series on baseball advanced statistics.

Like all great ideas, it’s an idea worth replicating in some capacity.

 

Hey Sean,

I know recently I read an article breaking down the Stars lack of first and second round success in the past decade, coming in near the bottom of the league in average games played per drafted player… Does the hiring of Monty change the Stars draft process this year / going forward with his success and knowledge of the North American leagues (versus the Stars seemingly consistent approach of taking high-ceiling, non US players). Additionally, you never really see the Stars picking up any of the 3-4 “big name” college players that sign with playoff contenders each season (after their respective NCAA season ends). Do you see Monty being a big attraction for players such as those, or will they continue to feed into bigger hockey markets such as NY and Boston? (From Aidan S.)

Hiring Jim Montgomery won’t change the Stars’ draft approach. Joe McDonnell will still run the draft, and the Stars still have much of the same scouting staff they’ve employed during Jim Nill’s tenure. There may be more of a focus on skill over size, but I think at the core Dallas will continue to draft with a similar approach.

To your second question, the Stars have actually done a nice job with college free agents in the past couple of seasons, signing Gavin Bayreuther and Tony Calderone. They may not be Will Butcher or Jimmy Vesey, but the Stars have added to their prospect pool through the college free agent route.

That being said, Montgomery’s connection to college hockey can’t hurt in those future pursuits. The college coaching fraternity is a tight one, and if a player is looking to their coach for advice it’s highly likely Montgomery will be respected by the advisor.

 

Who will Monty hire as his assistant coaches? (From Matthew M.)

Stu Barnes will be one of the assistants, the others have yet to be determined.

 

I remember in a podcast last year before the 2017-18 season that you talked about seeing Honka becoming even better than Klingberg in the future. Do you still see that great potential in him? (From Jake E.)

I still see a ton of potential in Julius Honka, but I’ve tapped the breaks a bit on my prior thought that he’d eventually surpass John Klingberg.

 

Let’s say Heiskanen would be in this upcoming draft class…..Do you think most people would rate him higher or lower than Dahlin? (From Blake P.)

Dahlin would be ranked higher.

 

Looking at Scott Wheeler’s top 100 what are the three most likely picks for the Stars, and how nuts will the fan base go if they took Vitali Kratsov (aka another Russian forward)? (From Drew C.)

Scott did a great job with his top-100, if you haven’t seen it yet you should check it out here.

If Joe Veleno is available he would be my pick, but based off other readings I don’t think he’ll be there at No. 13. Even if Vitali Kravtsov is the right choice, and I’m not saying he is or isn’t, I’m sure there will be some groans based off past history with Russian draft picks.

 

In the mock draft, you picked Barrett Hayden for the Stars. In Scott Wheeler’s final 100 rankings, he rates Hayden lower. Is there something in particular that you really like about Hayden that makes him attractive to the Stars over say Isac Lundestrom? (From Jerry E.)

I’ve really just started doing my own draft research, so while Barrett Hayton was my pick in our initial mock draft that selection easily could change as we get closer to the draft.

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I don’t consider myself an expert by any means on the draft class at this point, I defer to Scott and Corey Pronman on this group of players.

Am I dodging your question? A little bit. I’d like to be more informed myself before I start comparing prospects that I haven’t done full research on yet.

 

Hey, Sean. Mine is a two-parter. 1. What are some good sources to learn about/catch up on Stars prospects? 2. Is there any talk within the organization of bringing in a new play-by-play guy? I love Craig Ludwig, but he doesn’t have the personality to be on television/radio, and Razor is second to none doing color commentary. (From Mark S.)

To answer your first question, I hope to have your Stars prospect resource guide ready for next week. It’s been my long-term project that got slightly sidetracked with the coaching search and hire.

For your second question, at this point, I get all indications the Stars have no plans to change the broadcast team.

 

Who has been the most valuable former Star for their new team in this year’s playoffs? (From Justin D.)

Didn’t Alex Chiasson just score a rather big goal for the Washington Capitals?

 

Of the following players, who do you think has the best chance of getting an eventual full time gig in Dallas?

Tony Calderone
Sheldon Dries
Joel L’Esperance (From Will E.)

Tony Calderone

 

Sean,

This regular season AHL schedule is the most absurd thing I’ve ever seen in any kind of pro sports. The Stars have been at a disadvantage in these first 2 playoff rounds because the Reign and Roadrunners played 8 fewer games in the regular season. That seems like quite a bit of extra wear and tear. Who is responsible for this? What is the reasoning? And why does there not seem to be enough concern over it to at least consider making a change? (From Russel I.)

The good news is that next year the Texas Stars and San Antonio Rampage are moving to the Central Division, so they will be playing in a division where all the teams play 76 games. The Pacific Division will continue to play 68, but all the teams will play that amount with the Colorado Eagles making the jump from the ECHL and playing 68.

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How did we get here? It’s a long story I’ll try to make short.

Essentially, five NHL teams were sick of having their AHL prospects in far-flung places and wanted to move them closer to home. They also wanted their prospects to play 68 games instead of 76, allowing for more time to practice.

The AHL, led by its President and CEO Dave Andrews, essentially gave in to this demand to avoid potentially having the league shatter and watching another minor league launch in California. I also don’t see it changing anytime soon, the teams in the Pacific Division got the schedule they wanted and I don’t see why they would want to change that.

 

Do you see Hintz and Guryanov taking roster spots in Dallas next season? If so, who are the odd men out? Do you see Spezza bouncing back in a puck possession system? Is he our 2C next season? Thanks Sean, I really enjoy your work!!!! (From Jeff T.)

I think Roope Hintz has a better chance of making the NHL roster than Denis Gurianov.

I think Spezza can have a bit of a bounce back, but he obviously is no longer the old Jason Spezza.

 

If the Stars don’t close out the next two games in Austin, how likely do you think they are to get that clinching win back in Tucson? (From Justin D.)

If the Texas Stars go back to Tucson with a lead I think they’ll close out the series. If they go back to Arizona trailing I think the Roadrunners will advance.

 

Was I the only one that found it odd that Jamie Benn was the only current player at the press conference announcing Monty? I know that players like Klinberg are playing elsewhere, but the Hitch announcement had 4 players that were perceived to be a big part of the team leadership at the time. (From Barb. P)

Considering how quickly the hire came together I’m not surprised. Most of the players are out of town, and those that are still in town tend to be amongst the group without a contract for next season.

 

What kind of impact do you think Monty will have on our 2nd-4th lines / 2nd PP unit? Does he generally favor spreading the talent (ex. 4 second lines), or having a top-loaded lineup (traditional scoring lines with checking line, etc.)? I don’t remember the Stars having a legit 2nd PP unit in years. It seems like every team making deep runs has one. It will be exciting to watch our younger depth forwards transition into the roles Monty and Nill have envisioned for them. (From Mason D.)

I’ll have a better answer once I get a chance to really sit down with Montgomery and talk shop. His teams were pretty well spread out offensively at Denver, but we’ll have to see what happens as that translates to the NHL level.

 

What can we expect style-of-play wise from a Monty coached team? For me the biggest problem with Hitch was his strategy vs the roster make up. Is there something about Monty’s UD teams that is an obvious fit with the roster and in the NHL? 

To add on that, how does that lend itself to Seguin getting an extension? Do you foresee the Seguin/Benn era continuing with Monty?(From Doug B.)

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Jim Montgomery’s teams at Denver played with pace, they played with speed, and they worked to keep the puck.

I’ve written about that quite a bit, which you can read about in these pieces:

Film Room: What Jim Montgomery’s last great defenseman shows us about Honka and Heiskanen’s futures

Film Room: Jim Montgomery’s faceoff approach and the Dallas Stars

Breaking down Dallas Stars coaching candidates: Jim Montgomery

We also plan to cover it even more going forward.

And I do see Seguin sticking in Dallas.

 

Janmark has been really impressive at worlds, should he be considered a consistent top 6 forward? (From Bee C.)

I think Janmark can fill that role. I’m interested to see if he takes another step next season.

 

How long do you think before Colton Point or Jake Oettinger is NHL ready? What’s the typical age for a first-time goaltender in the NHL? (From Madison G.)

Ideally, either Colton Point or Jake Oettinger is ready for the NHL starting job heading into the 2021-22 season. That would be the fifth year of Ben Bishop’s six-year deal and would allow for a two-year transfer of power.

For your second question, here are the ages at which the five remaining starting goalies in the NHL playoffs became starters.

Andrei Vasilevskiy: 22
Braden Holbty: 24
Pekka Rinne: 26
Connor Hellebuyck: 24
Marc-Andre Fleury: 21

 

I’m thinking about heading to vegas to place a couple of bets… Without knowing anything else, what odds would you give Monty to win the Jack Adams next season?

The way the voting for that trophy goes, it feels like he would be an automatic top 3 candidate as long as the Stars make the playoffs. Basically just avoid the late season collapse and he’s golden, right? (From Trevor S.)

You’re right, with how the Jack Adams is typically voted Montgomery could easily be a finalist for the award if he leads the Stars to the playoffs next season. I’m not great at setting betting odds, maybe someone can help us in the comments…

 

Now that the Dallas Stars have to rebrand as the Dallas Jims, does that extend down to the Texas Stars? Are they now the Texas Jims? Will all concession stands now sell Slim Jims? (From Holly H.)

Yes, this franchise believes in cohesion and therefore the Texas Stars will become the Texas Jims.

NHL teams are going to end up with advertisements on their jerseys eventually, it it’s going to be a great match when Slim Jim is announced as the jersey sponsor for the Dallas Jims.

It even works with the iconic fight/goal song from Pantera. Just listen to this and replace the word “Stars” with “Jims.”

For each of the following, name the top player named “Jim” available and whether the Stars should try and get him or not: Draft, Free Agency, Trade Target. (From Tyler M.)

Draft: James Malm, a center for the Vancouver Giants. He’d be a sixth or seventh-round pick the Stars could announce as Jim Malm in their home arena.

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Free agency: James Van Riemsdyk, who the Stars would introduce as Jim Van Riemsdyk in the press release.

Trade Target: Jim O’Brien, be more of a trade to help the AHL team. But he goes by Jim.

Let’s go to the Twitterverse…

In my view, Brett Ritchie is expendable at this point because he’s become more of a bottom-six option than anything else. I watch Ritchie play and I see his heavy shot and I think he should be more of an offensive threat, but he hasn’t delivered on that.

If the Stars were to make a move in the offseason he’s the player I would try and include in the deal.

It starts with playing a style that embraces building depth and speed throughout the lineup. The Winnipeg and Nashville series has been so fast and extremely fun to watch. The Stars need to find a way to not only keep up but also run the race effectively.

My gut says he’ll sign elsewhere as a free agent.

Ryan O’Reilly is probably on the list of players the Stars will look at when trying to bolster their top-six.

Don’t take life too seriously. Be friendly to others. Don’t be afraid to take risks.

Terribly cliched? Sure. But it’s a pretty good way to look at things.

It makes it more likely that Spezza will stay. If Hitch was still here Spezza was gone.

In-N-Out, but I also admit I’ve never really given Whataburger a chance.

(Makes mental note not to read the comments on this mailbag…)

When it’s my turn to pick the Three Stars I try to make an initial selection without looking at the scoresheet. Once I have my initial list I look at the scoresheet to see if there is anything that stands out that I may have missed or didn’t consider before.

Is this bar trivia or dependent on answering a random person on the street?

If this is bar trivia in a group setting, I’d go with Ben Bishop or Marc Methot. If we’re dealing with a random person on the street stopping and asking a question I’m taking Devin Shore.

Father: Nill
Son: Montgomery
Holy Jim: Lites

Coaches are like the sacrificial lamb, they take the blame and walk amongst the people they are asked to lead. The GM is the eye in the sky watching and impacting each day. The CEO is the one that is often forgotten, but plays a key role in the success of the franchise in non-hockey elements.

Marc Methot

I’m hopeful that the way the Stars play this coming season, the style that Montgomery wants to play, will be enough to sway you.

Scott White does a nice job with the AHL team and helping fill out a roster that has been able to compete for a playoff spot each season.

He does rely on other scouts in the organization, but White is the one mainly responsible for AHL finds like Sheldon Dries and Justin Dowling.

Pancakes.

It’s a place to hold the towel while combing his hair, I mean feathers.

That would be a more enjoyable experience for all of us. I’d like to cover a team that is playing after April 10 each season.

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