World Cup 2022 Group C guide: Argentina’s fast starts, ageing Mexico and possession-shy Poland

What tactics do Argentina use? What is Mexico’s weakness? Which quirk should we look out for from Poland?

The 2022 World Cup is nearly upon us and The Athletic will be running in-depth tactical group guides so you will know what to expect from every nation competing in Qatar.

Liam Tharme will look at each team’s playing style, strengths, weaknesses and key players, and highlight things to keep an eye on during the tournament.

Expect to see screengrabs analysing tactical moments in games, embedded videos of key clips to watch, the occasional podcast clip and data visualisation to highlight patterns and trends — think of yourself as a national team head coach and this is a mini opposition dossier for you to read pre-match.

We move on to Group C, which features two-time winners Argentina, World Cup regulars Mexico (despite what Argentina and Tottenham Hotspur centre-back Cristian Romero thinks), play-off winners Poland and Saudi Arabia.

You can read Group A, Group B and Group D here, and groups E to H will be published later this week…

Argentina

• Head coach: Lionel Scaloni (since 2018)
• Captain: Lionel Messi
• Qualifying record: P17 W11 D6 L0 GF27 GA8
• 2018 World Cup: Round of 16
• Average age of squad in qualifying: 28 years 6 months
• Most caps in squad: Lionel Messi (164)
• Top scorer in squad: Lionel Messi (90)

How they play (tactics and formations)

Lionel Messi has historically carried Argentina but this iteration of the side is more balanced than ever before.

Scaloni normally plays a 4-3-3 or a 4-2-3-1 — the former when facing sides who threaten in attacking transition and the latter if Argentina are going to dominate. Scaloni showed his tactical flexibility against Brazil in the 2021 Copa America final, where Argentina went 4-4-2.

Argentina won that game to lift their first continental title in 28 years and are, arguably, in their best form ever. They are 35 consecutive games unbeaten, winning 24 and drawing 11 — an unbeaten group stage would break Italy’s record for the longest streak without losing by any nation (37 games between 2018 and 2021).

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Their build-up approach is varied. Argentina have sufficient quality to play through teams, from progressive centre-backs who can dribble and pass forward, or with passing circuits between a fluid central midfield three. Goalkeeper Emiliano Martinez is also a talented distributor and can play short to bait the press before playing over it.

Looking at the graphic below, from their victorious Copa America, we can see that Argentina had above-average passes per sequence (X-axis) which reflects more elaborate possessional play, though they were less pass-heavy than finalists Brazil. Coupled with their below-average direct speed (Y-axis) Argentina did not play particularly direct but built up mostly in a slow and intricate fashion.

They do not relentlessly press opponents but defend the middle third of the pitch well and pick moments to spring opponents from there. This would normally be in a 4-4-2, with Messi slotting alongside Lautaro Martinez in the two to minimise his defensive responsibility.

Argentina set the trap perfectly against Ecuador in the Copa America 2021 quarter-final.

Lautaro Martinez’s pressure forces Ecuador across and then back to their goalkeeper…

… Angel Di Maria reads the pass to centre-back Piero Hincapie. He is already moving before the ball leaves Hernan Galindez’s foot…

… and nips in to steal the ball from Hincapie, poking it onto Messi…

… who slides Martinez through and Argentina seal the win.

Their key player(s)

Messi, of course, but for more than his otherworldly goals and assists totals.

As per FBref, at Copa America 2021, his figure for progressive passes (42) was nearly double that of the next-best Argentinian, Rodrigo De Paul (22). Argentina’s shape facilitated him dropping deep to receive from centre-backs and dribble or pass forwards into the wingers or No 9.

1 – Lionel Messi, in the Copa América 2021, was the player with the most:

✅ Goals (4, tied with Luis Díaz)
✅ Assists (5)
✅ Chances created (21, tied with Neymar)
✅ Shots (28)
✅ Shots on target (11)

Champion. pic.twitter.com/4jyWqPoAe5

— OptaJoao (@OptaJoao) July 12, 2021

At the opposite end of the pitch, Emiliano Martinez has provided the goalkeeping quality that Argentina have sought for years — he is the ninth different goalkeeper to feature under Scaloni, who has been in charge for just 49 games.

He has the ultimate footballing seal of approval: Messi has called Martinez a “phenomenon” and the Aston Villa goalkeeper proved his ability for performing in penalty shootouts — three saves in the Copa America semi-final shootout against Colombia.

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Martinez has kept 13 clean sheets and conceded just five goals in his 18 caps, and his shot-stopping has been fundamental in prolonging Argentina’s unbeaten streak. The graphic below shows all his shots on target faced at Copa America 2021. According to expected goals on target (xGOT) data, which is the quality of the shot when it reaches the goalmouth, we can see that Martinez prevented between four and five goals more than would be expected. He dealt particularly well with shots down low to his left.

What’s their weakness?

A team at any level cannot remain 35 games unbeaten, winning one major tournament and qualifying for a second, with significant weaknesses — so this is hypercritical.

During that narrow shootout win against Colombia, Luis Diaz’s incisive runs and counter-attacking threat caused them their biggest problems at the 2021 Copa America. Argentina’s high defensive line could not deal with his pace and they resorted to fouling him — seven times in total, the most on the pitch, and he still scored the equaliser, assisted by a through ball.

One thing to watch

Incredibly fast starts. Argentina scored nine first-half goals without conceding at Copa America 2021, including four times in the first 15 minutes. They were winning at half-time in 12 of 17 qualifying matches.

When winning they balance defensive possession with moments of high pressing and can exploit overly expansive opponents with counter-attacks.

Argentina's first halves at Copa America

Metric – First Half	Argentina	Copa America 2021 Rank
Shots	47	1st
xG	8.67	1st
Big chances	17	1st
Shot accuracy (%)	61.5	1st
Goals	9	1st
Touches in opposition box	72	2nd
High turnovers	31	2nd

Mexico

• Manager: Gerardo Martino
• Captain: Andres Guardado
• Qualifying record: P14 W8 D4 L2 GF17 GA8
• 2018 World Cup: Round of 16
• Average age of squad in qualifying: 28 years 6 months
• Most caps in squad: Andres Guardado (177)
• Top scorer in squad: Raul Jimenez (29)

How they play (tactics and formations)

Martino primarily sets Mexico up in a 4-3-3 and they can build through the thirds. They use inverted wingers and overlapping full-backs, with one deeper-lying midfielder in the three.

The pizza graph below quantifies Mexico’s team style across key attacking and defensive metrics, using their 14 games in third-round qualifying — the larger the slice, the more they outperform other teams in that metric.

They were the best CONCACAF team in dominating the ball, in terms of possession (61.1 per cent average) and, more importantly, in their ability to retain the ball in the opposition half. Their field tilt, which ProVision defines as a team’s share of passes in the final third, was 65.9 per cent.

Check out this passage of play from the 2021 Gold Cup final against the United States.

Edson Alvarez is the second-most capped player under Martino (behind Jesus Gallardo) and he is the point of the downwards-facing midfield triangle. His positioning varies, either between or beside the central defenders to dictate play, or sometimes higher upfield to pin the opposition midfield and create space for others.

We see the latter here, with Hector Herrera dropping deeper to receive the ball from centre-back Nestor Araujo…

… Herrera whips a one-touch pass directly into the winger Jesus Corona (blue arrow) and Mexico end up five versus four, eventually winning a corner.

This directness is because of their quality in wide areas. They were the top side in the continent in qualifying for chance-creating carries (76) — i.e. dribbles ending in a shot or a pass that assists a shot from a team-mate.

By playing early into the wingers they can create more one-v-one situations against an opposition full-back.

Their key player(s)

Veteran goalkeeper Guillermo Ochoa is supercharged by these tournaments and is set to take part in his fifth World Cup. A back-up in 2006 and 2010, the 37-year-old excelled in 2014 and 2018 and played every minute of qualifying this year.

The graphic below shows the on-target shots that Ochoa faced in the last two World Cups. He prevented four goals more than the average goalkeeper would be expected to — according to expected goals on target (xGOT) data, which is the quality of the shot when it reaches the goalmouth.

He made the most saves of any goalkeeper at the last World Cup (25) and his continued presence in the national team is as much a reflection of his quality as it is Mexico’s issues when it comes to squad depth.

What’s their weakness?

Two things. 1) They are stagnating. Mexico were the second-oldest team (after Costa Rica) at the 2018 World Cup and the oldest North American side to qualify for Qatar. Age does usually provide experience but there are feelings that Mexico are failing to evolve, particularly in comparison to the US and Canada with their emerging generations of youth talent.

2) Scoring goals. Canada (23) and the US (21) scored more third-round qualifying goals than Mexico, who managed the same number as Panama (17). Raul Jimenez was Mexico’s top scorer and all three of his goals were penalties.

“We’ve had problems in the final third that result from bad decisions with the final pass, finishing plays poorly from wide areas, and then (the player) who’s in a position to score isn’t clinical,” was Martino’s assessment in qualifying. The absence of injured Jesus Corona compounds the problem, so much so that there was a significant clamour to recall the 34-year-old former Manchester United forward Javier Hernandez.

Read more: How to win the World Cup: The lessons teams can learn from previous winners

One thing to watch

“El quinto partido” — the fifth game. Mexico have qualified from the group stage at each World Cup since 1994 but have fallen at the first knockout hurdle every time. They have never won a knockout game outside Mexico.

Their likely route to the final, predicting a second-place Group C finish behind Argentina, would see them face holders France in the round of 16. A nice easy game to break the curse and go beyond that stage for the first time.

Saudi Arabia

• Manager: Herve Renard
• Captain: Salman Al-Faraj
• Qualifying record: P10 W7 D2 L1 GF12 GA6
• 2018 World Cup: Group stages
• Average age of squad in qualifying: 28 years 3 months
• Most caps in squad: Yasser Al-Shahrani (70)
• Top scorer in squad: Salem Al-Dawsari (17)

How they play (tactics and formations)

They are massive outsiders in this group but Herve Renard has overseen an evolution since taking charge in July 2019 — their FIFA ranking has jumped from 70th to 51st and they are making consecutive World Cup appearances for the first time since 2002 and 2006, reaching Qatar with their best qualifying campaign ever.

He has a track record of developing teams and is the only coach to win the AFCON with two different countries: Zambia in 2012 and Ivory Coast in 2015.

Typically, Saudi Arabia play a 4-2-3-1 with narrow wingers and wide, overlapping full-backs. Often they look for big switches from the back four to the wingers. At their best, Renard’s side create chances through intricate passing triangles in wide areas. “A nation such as Saudi Arabia must draw ideas from the greatest to be able one day, in the medium term, be among the best,” Renard told Arab News in January.

They often play short from goal kicks but against higher-quality sides, they struggle to progress through teams and are forced to play directly into the No 9, usually Firas Al-Buraikan.

The graphic below shows their attacking approach compared to other Asian teams in qualifying. They averaged the lowest direct upfield speed (Y-axis), reflecting patience in their play, and one of the highest passes per sequence (X-axis) average, indicating consistent, elaborate attacking patterns.

They are improving under Renard but are the worst of the Asian sides in FIFA rank and across key attacking stats.

The table below shows these and ranks them against the other four nations who reached Qatar through the Asian qualifying (Iran, Japan, Australia and South Korea).

Saudi Arabia's WCQ stats

Metric	Saudi Arabia	AFC rank /5
Total Shots (inc. Blocks)	112	5th
Expected Goals	13.49	5th
Big Chance Total	17	5th
Big Chance Conversion %	41.2	1st
Goals	12	Joint 3rd
10+ open-play Pass Sequences	130	4th
Build Up Attacks	20	4th
Direct Attacks	8	5th

Notably, they were the best in both boxes and that mitigated their shortcomings — Saudi Arabia had the highest “big chance” conversion rate (41.2 per cent) and opponents scored just 14.3 per cent of theirs against them, which was better than the other Asian nations at this World Cup.

Their key player(s)

Salem Al-Dawsari.

He scored the winning goal against Egypt at the 2018 World Cup and no Saudi Arabian player scored more than his seven goals in qualifying for Qatar.

Al-Dawsari has the third-most caps under Renard, featuring in 17 of 25 games and has the most direct goal involvements in that time, scoring nine and assisting two.

Once of Villarreal, the right-footer normally plays inverted off the left and can dribble inside to shoot as well as cross from the half-space or in the channel. Often, he drops deeper to receive the ball from centre-backs and ignite attacks, combining well with their left-back Yasser Al-Shahrani.

He also takes all set pieces for Saudi Arabia and has scored nine of the 11 penalties he has taken in his career.

What’s their weakness?

Preventing chances against top teams.

Against Asian sides, they dominate the ball but defensive flaws are exposed against higher-quality opposition.

Four clean sheets and only five goals conceded in eight games this calendar year suggests defensive strength. However, Saudi Arabia have repeatedly been picked apart and struggle to press teams, making them reliant on good goalkeeping and wasteful opponents rather than an adeptness to prevent chances.

Colombia got in behind on multiple occasions by moving possession from one flank to the other. Saudi Arabia were too slow to slide their shape across to defend the switch…

… and this opened space for Eduard Atuesta to receive a through ball and cross for the match-winning goal.

When they are able to play expansively, Saudi Arabia have issues defending against counter-attacks. Ecuador repeatedly dissected their defence in just one or two passes following a turnover.

One thing to watch

The 33-year-old captain Al-Faraj is set to lead Saudi Arabia at his final World Cup. The central midfielder played the second-most minutes in qualifying and was part of the side that were eliminated in the group stage of the 2018 World Cup.

The left-footer scored four and assisted one in qualifying and netted Saudi Arabia’s equaliser against Egypt in their only win at the last World Cup. That penalty was one of five in his career and he has a perfect record from 12 yards.

Poland

• Manager: Czeslaw Michniewicz
• Captain: Robert Lewandowski
• Qualifying record: P11 W7 D2 L2 GF32 GA11 (qualified through play-offs)
• 2018 World Cup: Group stages
• Average age of squad in qualifying: 27 years 11 months
• Most caps in squad: Robert Lewandowski (134)
• Top scorer in squad: Robert Lewandowski (76)

How they play (tactics and formations)

Poland have reached consecutive World Cups for the first time since 2006 and were Europe’s third-top scorers in qualifying — with 30 non-penalty goals in 11 games.

Their head coach Michniewicz has only been in charge since January, when he replaced Paulo Sousa, and in his seven competitive games, Poland have had the lesser share of possession six times. Results have been mixed in his eight games in charge: their record is W3 D2 L3.

The team is front-loaded with firepower — Lewandowski, Piotr Zielinski, Arkadiusz Milik and Krzysztof Piatek — which means they do not actually need a lot of possession to hurt teams.

Their best attacks come from direct play, with midfielders counter-pressing second balls and early crosses. The best example of this is Zielinski’s goal to seal the play-off win against Sweden.

Is that the goal that secures Poland's World Cup spot? 💭

A calm finish from Piotr Zieliński makes it 2-0! 👏 pic.twitter.com/kGc64VBIWf

— Sky Sports Football (@SkyFootball) March 29, 2022

They scored the most goals from crosses of any European side in qualifying (11), and these are illustrated in the graphic below.

The balance of creativity from both sides is impressive but there are a couple of clusters to note: a high volume of chances produced from deep on the right wing, such as Mateusz Klich’s assist for Karol Swiderski against Albania…

… and multiple assists from high up the left wing, crossing into the six-yard box. See Damian Szymanski’s header from a Lewandowski delivery…

Even under a different manager at Euro 2020, FBref has it that they completed the joint-most open-play crosses per game (four) — so the strength of this side is clear.

It suits their forwards and their athletic full-backs, particularly Matty Cash at right-back. With Cash available, Michniewicz has always played a back four with a double pivot and then tweaked the forward line dependent on the opposition. With Cash injured for the Nations League games in September, Michniewicz switched to a three-man defence. The good news for Poland fans is Cash is back and starting regularly for Aston Villa.

Their key player(s)

Lewandowksi. Their leading appearance holder and goalscorer has yet to score at a World Cup and at 34, this tournament could feasibly be his last chance.

The Barcelona striker has the third-most goals by a European player at international level (76), behind only Cristiano Ronaldo (117) and Ferenc Puskas (84) and has scored them at a rate of one goal every 136 minutes.

The threat is that Lewandowski can score every type of goal: left foot, right foot, header. One touch or two touch. He scores off cutbacks and crosses, gets goals by running in behind and can even finish from distance. And he almost always scores from the spot, converting 12 of 13 international penalties.

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