Joe Willock: It’s time for the expected goals to turn into end product

Newcastle United broke their transfer record to sign Alexander Isak during the summer to bolster their attacking ranks and to ensure they had quality cover for Callum Wilson, whose durability has been an issue.

That is the cruel irony behind Isak’s injury setback; although the Sweden international proved an adept replacement for Wilson during three matches earlier in the season, a recurrence of a thigh problem means he is unlikely to play again until after the World Cup. Allan Saint-Maximin, too, faces an uncertain spell out, having tweaked his hamstring for the third time.

While they have yet to all feature in the same team together, mercifully, at least one of Wilson, Isak and Saint-Maximin has been available for each of Newcastle’s 10 league matches so far. Yet, given their respective injury records, the club simply cannot rely on that trio alone to provide a goalscoring threat.

Miguel Almiron has stepped up with four goals, already matching his best total for a full Premier League season, but Ryan Fraser is out of form, Jacob Murphy has never been a regular goalscorer, and it does not appear as if Eddie Howe believes that Chris Wood is the answer.

Instead, it is from midfield that the head coach recognises greater end-product simply must arrive. It is essential that the scoring burden is shared, particularly by the No 8s.

In Joe Willock, Newcastle know they have a box-to-box midfielder who is capable of significantly increasing his goals return.

Among Newcastle players this season, only Wilson (3.44), Almiron (3.06) and Isak (2.21) have a higher expected goals (xG) return — which measures the quality of chances by calculating the likelihood of a player scoring from a specific position — than Willock’s 2.13. Wilson, Almiron and Isak have scored three, four and two respectively. Willock, meanwhile, got his last goal in February.

“We need key players in our system to either assist or score,” Howe tells The Athletic. “Because we’ve been playing a 4-3-3, that’s a big expectation on the No 8s and that won’t change. Regardless of who plays in that position, goals are a requirement.”

There is no expectation on Willock to replicate the eight goals he scored during his initial half-season loan spell at the club last year — which included the then-Arsenal midfielder netting in seven successive appearances, the youngest Premier League player ever to achieve such a feat — but there is a frustration that only two have followed in 2022.

That is despite the 23-year-old boasting the fourth-highest xG of any top-flight midfielder this season. Of Premier League midfielders yet to score, only Brighton’s Solly March (2.17) has a higher xG.

Those statistics highlight how Willock is getting into the positions to score — during the goalless draw with Crystal Palace on September 1, he had two excellent opportunities to win the match late on, while his goalbound shot was prodded over the line by Wilson in the 4-1 win at Fulham a month later — but that, so far, his finishing has been awry.

What is encouraging, however, is that he is regularly providing overlaps and underlaps for Newcastle’s wide forwards, and is getting into the box more frequently. This season, Willock has already managed 18 shots, five of which have been on target, across 772 minutes of league action.

“I think Joe is improving week on week. He has high standards and expectations of himself,” Howe says. “He wants to be a regular goalscorer and goal creator, and that hasn’t quite happened yet, but he’s been in the positions and has been very close to scoring two or three goals. In training, he’s a regular goalscorer and those moments will come in games.”

Willock is averaging a significantly higher number of touches inside the opposition box per 90 minutes (4.7) this season, underlining his increased willingness to advance into the area and aid attacks. He is also averaging more shots per 90 (2.1) than during each of the last two campaigns, though he is only finding the target with 29 per cent of those, which is lower than previously.

While he does not capture the headlines like fellow Newcastle midfielder Bruno Guimaraes does, Willock has also established himself as a key player this season. He was the only one of Howe’s players to start each of this season’s first 10 matches in all competitions, a run that would have stretched to 11 but for an illness last week that saw him drop to the bench at Old Trafford on Sunday.

Goals may not have been forthcoming but Willock’s endurance, dynamism and capacity to carry possession mean he offers something different to Newcastle’s other midfielders. “His athleticism and energy, his ability to get around the pitch, are vital components of our team,” Howe says.

Interestingly, Willock also has the joint-most assists of anyone in Howe’s squad, alongside Saint-Maximin, with two. His expected assists return (xA) — which measures the likelihood of a given pass becoming a goal assist — is also the second-highest in the squad at 1.58 behind only Kieran Trippier (2.43), who is the regular set-piece taker.

Both of Willock’s assists came during that victory over Fulham and, remarkably, they represented the first two goals the midfielder had ever laid on in a Newcastle shirt. And that was his 51st league appearance for the club.

Playing as one of two No 8s in a 4-3-3 is, theoretically, ideally suited to Willock’s characteristics. Although he remains a work in progress when it comes to adapting to Howe’s demands and his specific duties within the system, insiders are enthused by the improvement in his all-round game.

Willock started Newcastle’s first 10 games of the season – but has yet to find the net (Photo: Jon Hobley/MI News/NurPhoto via Getty Images)

But, with Jonjo Shelvey close to regaining full fitness, Howe will soon face a positive selection dilemma in midfield. Five into three does not go and Willock needs to start scoring to cement his place in the team.

Guimaraes will definitely start, while Howe is also keen to name his fellow Brazilian Joelinton in the starting XI, either as a left-sided forward in Saint-Maximin’s absence or as a left-sided No 8 when the Frenchman is available, to cover defensively.

Shelvey’s return offers Howe the option of shifting Guimaraes back into the more advanced role the player favours, while Sean Longstaff can play as a No 6 or a No 8.

Willock’s strengths do not suit the deep-lying role but they are perfect for an attacking-midfield position. His xG and xA are higher, per 90, than any of his fellow Newcastle midfielders this season and he is averaging more shots, more efforts on target, and more touches in the opposition box.

Yet, while neither Willock nor Joelinton have scored, Longstaff has one goal from an xG of 0.55 and Guimaraes has two from an xG of just 0.24.

Guimaraes has actually scored seven times since joining the club in January, with Willock contributing just two during that time. Howe has admitted that, when Newcastle signed Guimaraes from French club Lyon, they did not expect him to deliver goals but the 24-year-old has been directly involved in nine goals (including two assists) inside eight months.

Even if he was not providing goals, Guimaraes’ influence is so great that he will almost always be in the starting XI if fit.

For Willock, however, scoring goals feels vital for his long-term future in Howe’s side, particularly with Isak and Saint-Maximin sidelined.

He is playing well and offers an athleticism none of his team-mates can but, ultimately, simply must start providing match-defining contributions on a regular basis if he is to secure his starting position.

(Top photo: Paul Ellis/AFP via Getty Images)