TORONTO — Nick Nurse finally admitted it — there is no sample too small. It’s never too early to start drawing conclusions.
When a reporter mentioned that Nurse usually brings up the 20-game mark as a responsible timeline to start understanding the nature of his team, Nurse cut off the rest of the question.
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“It’s just to get you guys off my back for a few games,” Nurse said before the Raptors’ listless 112-90 defeat to Philadelphia, which was playing without Joel Embiid, on Friday night.
A-ha! All sample sizes are equally relevant. This is the only possible interpretation of what Nurse said. There could not have been comedic intent. Absolutely not.
Obviously, with two results as different as the comfortable win against the 76ers on Wednesday and a flat-out embarrassing defeat to the same team without its best player Friday, we should know things are still averaging out. Still, some trends have begun to reveal themselves with the Raptors (3-3). Whether they’re sustainable is a different question — one I will attempt to answer with the Sustainability Scale (a score of one indicates something is not sustainable, while a 10 means it is).
(All stats are through Friday’s Raptors-Sixers game unless otherwise noted.)
The Raptors rank first in defensive rebounding (78.3 percent) and 18th in offensive rebounding (28.1 percent)
Last year’s rankings: 23rd, 2nd
Naturally, after an offseason when the Raptors made no substantial changes, those numbers have basically flipped early in the season. Obviously, making more shots means there are fewer opportunities to get offensive rebounds, but that has little to do with a ranking based on percentage, not frequency.
“When there’s the opportunity to get ’em, the quantity that is there, obviously teams know that’s part of what we do,” Nurse said. “And I thought, especially Miami just did a great job of absolutely checking us out hard early and often during the game. So we’re going to have to understand that that’s coming and figure out some kind of counters to that.”
On the defensive glass, Precious Achiuwa is hoovering in rebounds well past his previous rates, and Pascal Siakam has had a bump, too. Nurse gave credit to the Raptors for tracking long rebounds better, too.
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Sustainability scale: 2. Achiuwa is not grabbing 29.6 percent of available defensive rebounds this whole season. Likewise, the Raptors are too active on the offensive glass not to rise on that front. Chris Boucher and Khem Birch missed time to start the year. The more involved they are, the higher that number will climb.
The starting lineup of Fred VanVleet, Gary Trent Jr., O.G. Anunoby, Pascal Siakam and Scottie Barnes has a net rating of minus-6.1 points per 100 possessions
Last year: The lineup had a net rating of plus-0.5
The Raptors went 15-6 in the regular season last year when that group played together. The component parts are the five most dangerous offensive players on the team. Yet, most good teams have very good starting lineups. This one was average in 345 minutes last year, and that has carried over.
Sustainability scale: 8. I’d have trouble saying precisely what the problem is, because the lack of a big man is the Raptors’ most obvious deficiency, and their rebounding numbers are fine. Something doesn’t quite fit. I’m curious what things might look like with a less offensive-minded player in there — maybe Boucher.
The Raptors rank 11th in assist percentage (62.6 percent) and third in turnover percentage (12.6 percent)
Last year’s rankings: 30th (54.3 percent), 3rd (12.8 percent)
A few weeks ago, when a reporter asked VanVleet what he first searched for on video the day after the game, the point guard quickly answered: his turnovers. The natural comparison for VanVleet, for obvious reasons, has always been Kyle Lowry. With a hat tip to my Twitter frenemy/Sportsnet producer Chris Black, should VanVleet really be considered Jose Calderon with defence? VanVleet has a silly 46-7 assist-to-turnover mark, a stat that has him hanging in rarefied air with Chris Paul and Jalen Brunson among the league’s most prolific assist men.
Fred VanVleet: 38 assists, 4 turnovers this season.#AssistTurnoverRatio#NextCalderon
— Chris Black (@DownToBlack) October 27, 2022
Elsewhere, Siakam and Barnes, second and third on the Raptors in total assists, are averaging two assists per turnover or better.
Sustainability scale: 6. I expect the 3-point percentage will drop — a hot start gave way to a 9-for-39 performance Friday — and that will lower the assist percentage, too. However, the Raptors are turnover conscious. Any improvement in ball movement and shotmaking will bring the ratio up, which should benefit the offence over time.
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The Raptors rank ninth in opponent turnover percentage (15 percent)
Last year’s ranking: first (16.2 percent)
Last year, the Raptors’ road map to victory was to dominate the possession game. In other words, force more turnovers than you commit and grab more offensive rebounds than you allow. They are still doing that this season, but they have aced the responsible part of things (managing the defensive glass and holding on to the ball) rather than the aggressive side of that same coin (getting second chances and forcing turnovers), as they did last season.
Sustainability scale: 4. I think this team ends up in the top five in forced turnovers. The Raptors still are among the league leaders in deflections per game (impressive since they play at a slow pace), and it appears they are not just getting loose-ball luck. Thinking of it like recovering fumbles — it’s pretty hard to be good at that skill. I expect some more of those will end up in the Raptors’ hands than in opponents’ hands or out of bounds.
Fred VanVleet’s usage percentage is 15.7, seventh among regular rotation players
Last year: 2nd on Raptors (23.3 percent)
That’s right: Siakam, Barnes, Trent Jr., Achiuwa, Anunoby and Boucher are using more possessions than VanVleet, who was an All-Star a year ago. VanVleet has said he is OK playing facilitator, although his coach wants him to be more aggressive. (That was before VanVleet’s awful 0-for-11 night Friday.)
“We want him to get some more attempts. He’s too good of a shooter for us to go up and down, up and down for a large section of the game without getting some attempts. We’ll try to involve him with setting screens for him, coming off the ball, not being on the ball or in ball screens because a lot of times teams are just switching to make him get off it. We’re setting some off the ball (for him). … We’re just trying to use him (with) a bunch of different tactics.”
Sustainability scale: 3. He was just below his career high in usage last season, and there are good reasons it is down this year. Barnes and Achiuwa are more familiar with the offence, and the Raptors want them to take a bigger share of the offence. If and when the Raptors’ shooting cools down a bit, though, VanVleet will take a bigger role. As well, turnovers count toward usage percentage, and VanVleet’s caretaking will not remain this pristine.
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The Raptors rank 29th in pace at 95.42 possessions per game
Last year’s rank: 27th (97.36 possessions per game)
This is coloured by the fact that the Raptors have played Miami and Philadelphia, two teams that tend not to push the ball very much. Of the teams they played in their first six games, only Brooklyn ranked outside the bottom third in pace last year.
“We need to try to pick up the pace a little bit,” Nurse said. “If you’re getting stops and you’re getting turnovers, you (have) got to try to get it up the floor to at least take a look (at early opportunities).”
Sustainability scale: 9. Fool me once, shame on me. Fool me twice … you know the rest. The Raptors do look to get out in transition plenty. However, their defence is designed to make offences use as much of the shot clock as possible. And when the Raptors don’t take those early chances, they tend to be very deliberate, too.
(Top photo of Tyrese Maxey and O.G. Anunoby: Nick Turchiaro / USA Today)
