FLOWERY BRANCH, Ga. — The Falcons are 30th in the NFL in spending on offense ($65.5 million). They are starting an inexpensive free-agent quarterback who was a backup the last two seasons. Twitter is convinced their head coach hates his two best offensive players (tight end Kyle Pitts and wide receiver Drake London). Running back Cordarrelle Patterson has been on injured reserve for a month.
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And yet the Falcons are 4-4 overall and in sole possession of first place in the NFC South on the back of an offense that is in the top 10 in the NFL in many significant statistical categories.
How is this happening? We asked two of The Athletic’s NFL experts — Nate Tice, a former NFL scout and coach who covers NFL trends and the draft, and Ted Nguyen, who breaks down game film and provides analysis. Here’s what they had to say with a little context of my own added in.
Do you like this offense? Why or why not?
Tice: I not only like this offense, I really like this offense. The Falcons offense is uniquely their own and not in a gimmicky sense. They are one of the top teams at maximizing their talent on that side of the ball. Their run game is genuinely fun to watch. They try every type of play-action passing combination possible to hunt for big plays through the air. And how they get there is why it’s so interesting to watch the Dirty Birds. They constantly change up their personnel groupings (they are the only offense in the NFL to use 11, 12 and 21 personnel on 20 percent or more of their snaps) and even varying up the players in those personnel groupings to seek out every matchup advantage possible. With constant shifting and motion on pre-snap looks, you can see the Falcons’ offensive staff probing defenses for a weakness in how they set their fronts or rotate their coverages. Again, trying to find those advantages.
And it’s not just me being a football scheme hipster. The underlying metrics show how effective and downright explosive this offense is. The Falcons rank eighth in success rate, sixth in EPA per drive, sixth in EPA per play and ninth in Football Outsiders’ offensive DVOA metric. Those are good numbers for any team. And especially for a unit starting Marcus Mariota at quarterback and trotting out an offensive line that most would have considered below-average at best coming into this season.
Baldy’s Breakdown Marcus Mariota edition pic.twitter.com/SX0a9EuHW5
— Atlanta Falcons (@AtlantaFalcons) November 2, 2022
Nguyen: Not many expected this offense to be this effective before the season. I had faith in Arthur Smith, who I think is a clever play designer, to draw up some fun plays for an interesting group of skill-position players with Patterson, Pitts and London. Mariota is clearly limited as a passer, but he’s a legitimate threat on option plays and Smith is taking full advantage of that.
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They’re combining the option attack with pistol outside zone and taking deep shots on play action, similar to what Kyle Shanahan did with Robert Griffin III in Washington. Some of my favorite offenses to watch don’t have an embarrassment of riches but instead a collection of players with an interesting mix of skill sets in which a coach has to rig up a way to make them all complement each other, and I think Smith has done that.
His run-heavy approach works well against defenses that have committed to lighter bodies and lighter boxes. Not only are they second in rush attempts, they are fifth in rushing success rate. One of my favorite drives of the season was their 10-play touchdown drive against the Browns made up entirely of runs.
I understand their approach and hesitancy to let Mariota pass more than necessary, but I do wish that they would get Pitts more involved in the game plan. Not all of that is on Smith, but in their two best offensive outings of the year (against Seattle and Carolina), they targeted Pitts eight and nine times.
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When you think of Kyle Pitts and Drake London, you feel…
Tice: Sheer joy.
Pitts and London screaming down the field like a couple of pterodactyls on a Falcons play-action play is one of the wonders of the sport right now.
They are both matchup nightmares on a weekly basis and London has been one of the most effective receivers in the NFL on a per-route basis (his 11 percent rate is 12th among players with 150 or more routes. Sandwiched between Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase). He’s showing off the true ball-winning ability and ability to pick up yards after the catch like he was able to do throughout his career at USC. He’s already a good player, and he’s only going to improve both as a player and via the box score as the Falcons offense evolves over the years.
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Pitts is a true one-of-one player that Smith loves to use all over the formation. And while his counting statistics might not always reflect it, the ability to line up Pitts wherever needed (perhaps not as a point-of-attack blocker) is what unlocks so much in the Falcons offense. Smith is able to be creative with the personnel and formations because Pitts is the queen on the chess board.
Pitts is incredible with the ball in his hands, and there aren’t many players in the entire league that can defend him in one-on-one situations. And despite popular belief, Smith finds plenty of ways to try to highlight Pitts in the passing game. Whether the ball always gets to him as it should is another story.
Nguyen: … like throwing up some deep balls. Pitts is one of the best athletes at his position and I have faith that one day we’ll see him consistently break the 1,000-yard mark. I’m also surprised at how effective of a blocker he is. He doesn’t overwhelm defenders at the point of attack, but he makes his blocks more often than not. He’s not the glorified wide receiver that some make him out to be.
London is an exceptional route runner for a man of his size and defenders don’t want to tackle him in the open field. It’s hard to define, but deceptive body language is one of the most important traits for a wide receiver (think Justin Jefferson) and bigger receivers don’t typically have this trait, but London has it. He’ll be a much more consistent threat when the Falcons are able to crank up their passing volume.
Kendall: Atlanta fans and fantasy football owners across the country are more on Ted’s side than Nate’s in the discussion of Pitts and London. Pitts is 15th among tight ends in receiving yards (258) and London is 46th among receivers (346).
That’s part of what makes this exercise so interesting is people can see these things from a different perspective and can see down the road a bit when it comes to Atlanta’s top two pass catchers.
Should the Falcons make a quarterback change and go with the rookie Desmond Ridder?
Tice: Personally, there have been times I wish they would. Ridder was my QB1 in this past draft class and his preseason performance did nothing to dissuade me from still feeling that way. And one of the things I liked about Ridder was that he seemed like a football junkie with a mature play style and work ethic.
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But the Falcons are winning. Mariota’s legs have been a valuable weapon in the run game and as a scrambler (although Ridder is an athletic runner in his own right). And while there’s the argument that Mariota will provide “veteran leadership” that a rookie simply can’t provide, Mariota has had several costly mistakes in key moments of games. Whether it’s a botched handoff or a play in which he tries to do too much, it’s something you don’t want out of a quarterback with dozens of starts under his belt.
To put it simply: my heart says Ridder and my head is starting to say Ridder, too.
Nguyen: Yes. The Mariota experiment has been fun and, sure, they can win the division, but they aren’t going to win the Super Bowl, so they need to find out what they have in Desmond Ridder. He’s athletic enough to keep running Smith’s option attack, and I think he can be a better passer than Mariota.
If Ridder is bad, they’ll move up in draft position and have a chance to draft one of the top quarterback prospects. If he’s good, they’ll know that they have something to build on and maybe they can use that first-round pick on another position.
Kendall: I can see both sides of this argument, and the Falcons don’t seem close to making a change because of Mariota’s experience in the NFL and with this offense. Smith puts a lot on his plate pre-snap, and I can’t help but think they worry that Ridder won’t handle all of that nearly as well because he’s a rookie.
Still, the following clip illustrates some of the offense’s limitations. For starters, although it’s tough to see in this clip, the wheel route on the left side comes wide open early in this play, and Mariota doesn’t see it right away. Secondly, it’s a seven-man protection, and Atlanta still gives up a sack. Mariota is 13th in the league in passer rating (92.7).
💪 Uce was all over it 💪 pic.twitter.com/8Ou2pmlEZ7
— Carolina Panthers (@Panthers) October 30, 2022
Do you think that this is how Arthur Smith WANTS to play offense or do you think this is how Arthur Smith HAS to play offense given his personnel?
Tice: A little of column A and a little of column B.
This type of run-game dynamism would be useful with any type of personnel. But I’m sure Smith is quite aware of his offensive line talent level and who his quarterback is. There’s a reason the Falcons don’t take it to the air. And when they do, it’s typically with a play fake coupled with it. Straight dropback concepts are an adventure with the Falcons, which gets amplified in obvious passing situations like third down. Mariota is hit-and-miss as a pocket passer who can progress, and the offensive line’s weaknesses become more glaring when they have to pass protect.
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Smith seems like he’s trying to find any way possible to move the ball. But I’m sure he wouldn’t mind (having) the players to make his life easier on a down-to-down basis.
Nguyen: Can Mariota and this offensive line handle a higher pass rate without self-destructing? Likely. But Smith is probably close to the edge of how much they should pass, and they’re 4-4 now and not many people predicted that they would be close to .500 at this point before the season. Three of their losses were one-possession games, too.
Also, their commitment to this style of his offense philosophically likely is part of the reason why they are successful.
If you could add one player in the league to this offense for the remainder of the season to unlock something more who would it be?
Tice: Another receiver would be nice, but Olamide Zaccheaus has been a pleasant surprise this year and looks like he has all the makings of an effective role player in the future. Another interior lineman to play left guard perhaps. If we’re not including quarterbacks, I am going to almost meme myself here and say a receiving fullback of some sort (like Alec Ingold from the Dolphins) would be an interesting piece for this offense that likes to use them in creative ways. And they don’t necessarily have to be thumpers because of the more horizontal nature of the Falcons’ run game.
Nguyen: Lamar Jackson. Sorry, this seems like the most obvious answer. Jackson would make the run game even more explosive and he would be dynamic passing to Pitts and London. Smith wouldn’t hesitate to pass more with Jackson.
Kendall: Incredibly, I hadn’t even thought about Jackson in this offense. Man … I mean, he is scheduled to be a free agent in the offseason. Just kidding. Please don’t send any emails.
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Is this a sustainable style? Or once folks have more tape are the Falcons going to start running into a brick wall like they did against the Bengals on Sunday?
Tice: I do think it is sustainable, but it’s going to be so reliant on a favorable game script because the Falcons aren’t built to drop back and throw over and over.
Defenses have been getting lighter and lighter both by personnel and by body types. The Falcons have an almost weekly advantage by forcing defenses to play their game — as in, put heavier bodies on the field to match all the tight ends and fullbacks the Falcons use and consistently fit the run in a league where defenses are taught to defend the pass first and the run second. If the Falcons defense can limit offenses just enough or create a turnover or two, then it’s going to be hard for most defenses to truly limit the Falcons on the ground for 60 minutes.
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Nguyen: Depends on what you mean by sustainable. Can they continue to be efficient and put up good numbers for the season? I think so. They may regress at some point, but it’s hard to see them falling to the bottom of the league barring some major injuries.
But if you’re talking about if they can continue to be good enough to win games, I don’t think so. We saw what happened when they fell behind the Bengals. Their defense simply isn’t talented enough for them to be so cautious on offense, and their dropback passing game isn’t suited to come back from behind.
Should we have expected some team to run this type of offense because of the proliferation of defenses designed to stop big plays?
Tice: Yes, absolutely. The best offenses are the ones that can pivot to whatever is needed based on the game plan and matchup. And while the ones with the elite quarterbacks can get spoiled and call whatever dropback pass they want because good things mostly happen when they do that. They still need to have the ability to run the ball if defenses are going to play this way.
The Falcons are one of numerous teams that don’t have one of those types of quarterbacks. So they would need to find an effective way to move the ball without one of those unicorns. Nothing the Falcons have done on offense is “new,” it’s all very tried and true stuff. But rarely do you see a team build the whole plane out of it, and Smith and the other coaches have coached the hell out of it.
Nguyen: Most coaches knew this change in defensive meta was coming, but I think even some have to be surprised at how far defenses have swung. We’ve seen teams trend toward moving toward a heavy option attack, so it’s nothing new, but it makes even more sense now. I don’t know if Smith drew up this offense in direct response to defensive trends. I think he lost Matt Ryan and needed to find a way to win with Mariota. That being said, if defenses keep moving in this direction, offenses that can run the ball will have a chance to be relevant with average quarterbacks.
(Top photo of Kyle Pitts: Dale Zanine / USA Today)
