Eight games down, nine to go. This is effectively the halfway point of the regular season.
We’re starting to develop a feel for the 2022 49ers, but a whole lot remains to be written. If this season is anything like the last one, the next three months will be a captivating affair. We made six predictions at around this point of the 2021 season, and some of them proved prescient.
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So, here’s another crack at it. As always, we’ll circle back in a few months to assess the accuracy of the following predictions.
1. Kyle Shanahan will have his first 1,000-yard rusher with the 49ers … barely
It’s hard to believe the 49ers, who lean on their running game more than most teams, haven’t had a 1,000-yard rusher in the last five seasons. Christian McCaffrey seems poised to do so considering he already has 525 yards with nine games left.
McCaffrey’s carries could drop given the disparity in talent surrounding him in San Francisco versus Carolina. Neither Deebo Samuel nor Elijah Mitchell played in the Week 8 win over the Rams and both will be worked into the rushing attack. McCaffrey could be used as a pass catcher as much as he is a pure runner.
Still, it doesn’t appear as if Shanahan is trying to take it easy on the six-year veteran. After playing 85 percent of the Panthers’ offensive snaps before the trade, McCaffrey played 22 snaps a mere 48 hours after arriving in Santa Clara and was on the field for 81 percent of the snaps a week later. He was even getting carries at game’s end when the outcome against the Rams seemed decided.
McCaffrey has run for more than 1,000 yards in the two previous seasons in which he’s started every game. If he plays in all 17 this year, the real question might be whether he gets 1,000 rushing yards and 1,000 receiving yards. If he does, he’d become the first player to have multiple seasons with that accomplishment.
2. Jimmy Garoppolo will finish with, measurably, his best career season
What’s the fairest way to evaluate this? Let’s use adjusted net yards per attempt (ANY/A), which not only tracks per-play passing efficiency but also incorporates sacks, interceptions and touchdown passes into its underlying formula.
Below is Garoppolo’s performance through the years with the 49ers, featuring rudimentary yards per attempt (YPA), passer rating, interception rate, and ANY/A — which essentially serves as a conglomeration of the other columns.
Shortened sample due to trade (2017) and injuries (2018 and 2020)
Garoppolo’s best annual marks are highlighted in blue and his worst annual marks are highlighted in red.
What will it take to push 2022 past 2017 and 2021, the two seasons in which Garoppolo recorded a higher ANY/A than the number he’s posted so far this season?
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Garoppolo is already executing one key — a relatively low interception rate — well. That’s boosting his overall efficiency. Now, a bit more explosiveness and a slight uptick in touchdown passes (he has 11 so far this season) can be what’s needed to push Garoppolo into his best season yet. Early indications suggest that McCaffrey’s presence should be enough to open the statistical floodgates for Garoppolo.
3. Jimmie Ward will reestablish himself as the team’s starting free safety
Having Ward line up at nickel cornerback in the last two games has been a good way to get the 49ers’ top five defensive backs on the field at the same time. The Chiefs and Rams both attack through the air, and Ward essentially was an every-down defender in playing 88 percent of the snaps against Kansas City and 97 percent against the Rams.
That composition would change, however, if Jason Verrett returns to the starting lineup. He’d likely take over Deommodore Lenoir’s outside cornerback spot, allowing Lenoir to return to the spot he played earlier in the season, nickel cornerback.
That, in turn, would allow Ward to return to his natural spot, free safety.
4. Nick Bosa will be the team’s defensive MVP
Here’s how talented Bosa is: The 49ers were on their bye week and he still added to his sack total.
It’s true. The league awarded him a half-sack for a third-quarter play on which Warner originally was given full credit. Bosa now has 8 1/2 sacks.
Sacks in the middle @fred_warner gets to Stafford for a loss of 9 on third down 💪
📺 #SFvsLAR on FOX pic.twitter.com/YP24qCuUwo
— San Francisco 49ers (@49ers) October 30, 2022
After a wobbly 2 1/2 weeks, he and his defensive teammates rediscovered their swagger in the second half against the Rams. Their confidence only would grow if Arik Armstead, Javon Kinlaw and Verrett join the starting lineup as expected.
Bosa’s sack totals, however, would truly be boosted if the 49ers’ offense continues its upward trend. If Garoppolo, McCaffrey and George Kittle can continue to score points, it will force more dropbacks and fewer quick, piecemeal passes from opposing offenses.
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That’s what happened in the second half in Los Angeles. In fact, Bosa thought he should have had an opportunity for more sacks at game’s end and was disappointed the Rams seemed to capitulate.
“I was hoping for some more pass rushes there, but I guess they didn’t have confidence in coming back,” he said.
5. The 49ers offense will outperform the defense down the stretch
Which unit will be the locomotive that pulls the 49ers’ train?
So far, it’s been the 49ers’ defense, just as the team expected before the season. The defense ranks No. 7 in DVOA (Football Outsiders’ defense-adjusted value over average) and the offense ranks No. 13.
But the bold prediction here is that the offense puts together a better DVOA ranking from this point until the regular season finale.
For one, the combination of McCaffrey and Mitchell stands to fix the 49ers’ most glaring weakness so far: run offense. They rank No. 21 in rushing DVOA, but that number has been ticking up since McCaffrey came aboard two games ago. If the 49ers can pair their efficient pass game — McCaffrey is a huge boost there, too — with a solid run attack, they’ll be a true two-way team.
At that point, the 49ers offense has a much more favorable schedule than its counterpart. The attack faces only one top-10 defense the rest of the way, and that’s a Tampa Bay team that just lost top edge rusher Shaquil Barrett for the season. The 49ers’ defense, meanwhile, is slated to face two top-10 offenses: the No. 5 Miami unit coached by Mike McDaniel and No. 6 Seattle.
6. The 49ers will go undefeated in the NFC West
Ah, yes, the Seahawks. They’re playing good football and leading the division with a 6-3 record.
The last 49ers’ NFC West title came in 2019 and had to go through Seattle with an epic December finish. The stars might be aligning for a similar stretch run this season, as the 49ers are slated to visit the Seahawks on Dec. 15. That Thursday night game projects to be a massive one.
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The 49ers, though, have absolutely dominated the NFC West so far this season. They’re 3-0 in divisional games — that’s two wins over the Rams and one over Seattle — with an 82-30 combined margin of victory.
We’ll see how the 49ers stack up against Arizona in Mexico City later this month. The Cardinals have given the 49ers problems recently but seem to be the worst team in the division this season. The 49ers’ trend of beating up on NFC West competition should continue — and that’s always a good formula to win a division crown.
(Top photo of Jimmy Garoppolo and Christian McCaffrey: Ben Liebenberg / Associated Press)