The Seahawks are not surprised to be three games above .500 at this point in the season. Remember, this is a team that even before the season began genuinely felt it could contend for a championship.
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Running back Rashaad Penny said it’s “insane” to write off a program that’s been in the postseason so often in the past decade. So, while everyone marvels at the Seahawks’ surprising success over the first nine weeks of the year, the folks inside the locker room knew this is what they were capable of.
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Because the Seahawks believe that the sky is the limit, let’s start this list of second-half predictions with a look at where Seattle will sit by season’s end.
Seattle will be a playoff team
The Seahawks are 6-3 with a cushy lead in the NFC West, ahead of the 4-4 San Francisco 49ers and the 3-5 Los Angeles Rams. The Cardinals are 3-6 and 0-3 in the NFC West. According to the projection model created by The Athletic’s Austin Mock, the Seahawks have a 72.9 percent chance to make the playoffs and 31.1 percent to win the division.
Those numbers are shocking for a Seattle team that was projected to win five or six games this season and finish last in the division. Prior to the season, Mock’s model had Seattle at 8.8 percent to make the playoffs, 2.3 percent to win the NFC West.
Seattle travels to face the Rams in Week 13, then hosts a rematch with the 49ers in a prime-time bout in Week 15. The Seahawks host Los Angeles in their regular-season finale, which could have playoff implications for both teams if the Rams get their act together.
The Seahawks’ success isn’t a fluke, nor is it a byproduct of simply beating up on bad teams. They have a plus-21 point differential, which is 10th-best league-wide. Seattle ranks fifth in Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric, which adjusts for opponent strength. The team is seventh in offensive DVOA and 12th in defensive DVOA. Now that Seattle’s defense has flipped a switch, this team is likely going to be playing meaningful football in mid-January, and a home playoff game is certainly on the table.
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Uchenna Nwosu will be voted to his first Pro Bowl
It’s safe to say that at the midway point of the season, Nwosu has been Seattle’s best defensive player. He leads the team with seven sacks, more than twice as many as the two players tied for second (Quinton Jefferson and Darrell Taylor with three apiece). He also leads the Seahawks in quarterback pressures (35), QB hits (15) and pressure percentage among players with at least 100 pass-rush snaps at 14.9 (all stats from TruMedia unless stated otherwise).
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The seven sacks are already a career-high mark, as is his total number of QB hits. He needs six more pressures to top the career-high of 40 he reached last season with the Chargers, and if that pressure rate holds the rest of the season, it’ll be a new best as well (his pressure rate was 14.8 as a rookie).
Came for the sack, stayed for the @UchennaN_42 celebration.
📺 up next #SEAvsTB on NFLN pic.twitter.com/de4304kK6o
— Seattle Seahawks (@Seahawks) November 7, 2022
The Seahawks projected that Nwosu, a rotational player with the Chargers, would thrive in a more prominent role with the Seahawks. Their hunch was correct. Nwosu is playing the best ball of his career.
“We love the kid, his background, makeup, style of play, and his toughness and smarts and all of that, but we didn’t know how he would adapt to the stuff that we gave him,” coach Pete Carroll said. “That kid is having a great year. He’s everywhere — running game, passing game, all kinds of big plays.”
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Nwosu would need to play like a top-three outside linebacker in the NFC to earn his first Pro Bowl nod. He’s very much in that conversation through nine weeks. Outside linebackers have numerous responsibilities in Seattle’s scheme, but it’s the pass-rush work that attracts the most attention. In that facet of the game, Nwosu has been as good as anyone.
Minnesota’s Za’Darius Smith (8.5) and Dallas’ Micah Parsons (8) are the only outside linebackers with more sacks (and quarterback hits) than Nwosu. Smith, Parsons and Green Bay’s Rashan Gary — who is now out for the season with a torn ACL — are the only OLBs with more quarterback pressures. Nwosu is on pace for 13 sacks this year, but if he doesn’t hit that number, a double-digit sack season in a year his team makes the playoffs should be enough to make his first all-star game.
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He won’t be the only Seahawk making an all-star appearance …
Geno Smith leads the league in completion percentage (73.1) while ranking sixth in passing yards (2,199), yards per attempt (7.7) and total touchdowns (16). Smith has been one of the best quarterbacks in the league this season, let alone one of the best in the conference.
Among NFC quarterbacks, Smith and Jalen Hurts of the undefeated Philadelphia Eagles should be locks to represent the conference at the Pro Bowl. The third spot will be up for grabs, but there shouldn’t be anything stopping Smith from being recognized among the league’s best at the end of the year. Due to how well Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen and Hurts are playing, Smith is unlikely to be in the MVP discussion, but the fact he’s even worth mentioning speaks to how stunning this season has been.
Wide receiver Tyler Lockett and rookie cornerback Tariq Woolen will be in that discussion at their positions as well. Lockett ranks among the most productive receivers in the conference, and Woolen leads all cornerbacks in interceptions and ranks sixth among qualified corners in passer rating allowed, according to Next Gen Stats.
This damn Tariq woolen is that deal
— Charles Woodson (@CharlesWoodson) November 6, 2022
The Seahawks’ run game will cool down
Through nine weeks, Seattle has played some of the worst run defenses in the league. Arizona ranks 24th in success rate against the run. The Chargers are 28th, the Falcons are 30th and the Lions are 31st. The Cardinals have closer to a league-average run defense by EPA and yards per carry allowed, but those metrics have been unkind to the Giants, who rank near the bottom of the league in both categories.
The Seahawks have been one of the better rushing teams, averaging 5.1 yards per attempt (which ranks third) and 133.7 yards per game (11th). Only the Ravens and Browns have been better by EPA per rush.
Seattle’s numbers will be put to the test in the back half of the year. Its future opponents hold the following ranks in success rate against the run: Rams (third), 49ers (fourth), Buccaneers (ninth), Jets (14th), Chiefs (21st), Raiders (23rd) and Panthers (25th). That’s four of the final eight games against top-10 run defenses. Seattle will still likely finish the season with one of the best offenses in the league, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see some struggles in the run game down the stretch.
The Seahawks have the fifth-highest percentage of runs that result in zero or negative yards (23.6), and they run against eight or more defenders in the box at the fifth-highest rate (45.1). Their ability to clinch the division may depend on how well they can run the ball versus better defenses late in the season.
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Mike Jackson will keep his starting gig
Tre Brown, coming off a season-ending knee injury in 2021, will likely be cleared to play no later than the Week 12 game against the Raiders. Last season, Brown was the starter at left cornerback and ranked 16th among corners with at least 100 coverage snaps in passer rating allowed from Weeks 6 to 11, according to Next Gen Stats.
If Brown wants back in the starting lineup, he’ll have to outplay Mike Jackson, who took the left cornerback job from Sidney Jones in training camp. Jackson has seven passes defensed this season — just one less than Woolen — and has allowed a passer rating of 71.1 (according to Next Gen Stats) while surrendering just one touchdown (to Josh Reynolds in Week 4). Jackson doesn’t have any interceptions this season, but on a per-snap basis, the fourth-year defender has been nearly as good as his rookie teammate in coverage.
Kenneth Walker III will win Offensive Rookie of the Year
Walker became the betting favorite to win the NFL’s Offensive Rookie of the Year award when running back Breece Hall of the Jets suffered an ACL injury in Week 7. At this rate, Walker should run away with the award (even if Seattle’s overall run numbers cool down later in the year). Walker has 570 rushing yards, second among rookie runners behind Houston’s Dameon Pierce (678). Walker leads all rookie runners in touchdowns (seven) and is second to Hall in yards per carry (5.14).
With the rookie quarterbacks struggling to produce this season, Walker’s only other competition will likely be receivers. Although Chris Olave of New Orleans and Drake London of Atlanta have had strong debut seasons, Walker may very well finish with 1,300 scrimmage yards and 14 total touchdowns. Those numbers will be hard to top.
(Photo of Geno Smith: Nic Antaya / Getty Images)
